Lakers - better matchup at 6 or 7 seed?

[westkoast]

At the end of the day, I just feel that the Suns have too many weapons.  Everyone here is saying neither team plays D, so it's a good match up.  I can see that point; however, the Lakers have absolutely no chance of keeping up with the Suns offensively.  In a 7 game series, when the pace slows down a bit and it becomes a chess game of match ups, I think the Spurs have slightly less offensive weapons that pose major match up probs for the Lakers which is the ultimate reason I'd rather they match up in the first round. 

I'll disagree here, hear me out....

I think the Spurs have just as many weapons but are not  a fast paced team.  If they ran more then they could score alot of points also.  Maybe not the same amount as PHX does night in and night out but I bet they would be pushing 100 if it was faster paced.  However, the plan is to go to Duncan often and get higher % shots while letting the defense keep the other team from scoring.  That plan has worked pretty darn well for the past 7-8 seasons.  I say don't fix what is not broken.  They are a more consistant team in the long run playing that way, that has been proven.

The reason I personally mentioned that neither team plays defense is that the Lakers may not be able to keep up scoring with PHX each game but  Kobe can score better then anyone in this league.  If you don't force him into tough shots he will torch your team.  If you can't stop him then you must stop his other teammates.  Last year PHX had trouble with that and they almost were eliminated in the first round by a lesser team.  The Spurs can make Kobe work for his shots and with Duncan in the middle he cannot get to the rim as easy.  He will not be stopped but you have to slow him down just enough.   They can almost get away with not doubling him as much as other teams in the league because of the strength of their team defense.  That makes sure the Odom, Walton, Smush Parkers of the team do not have easy shots themselves.  Less penetration, less open shots for guys who really need space.  Odom, Walton, and Smush this year are average from outside.  Where they do alot of damage is in the paint.  Odom pushing the ball for layups/easy dishes.  Walton posting guys up on the block for jump hooks, easy layups.  Smush penetrating and throwing down dunks or kissing it off the glass.  When it comes to jumpers they need space most of the time.  I just don't see Bynum or Kwame creating that space with Duncan if Kobe cannot.  With Amare, I think it is possible for them to do so.  He is a very talented player but the post defense is something he needs to work on (and I am sure he will).

As for Nash, you are right the Lakers have no shot at guarding him.  Really no one does.  The best defense (if you want to call it defense) is to not to focus in on keeping him from scoring.  You want to make him score rather then dish the ball.  Awesome shooter or not I rather see him take 3s and make runners then I want to see Stoudamire, Marion, etc get dunks/layups.

To me, people are sleeping on the Spurs big time.  Almost as if they are sitting in the 6th 7th seed with the other pack of teams.  They've been pretty good the last 25 games or so.  They have one of the greatest coaches of all time, they are battled tested, and they are a very talented team.

To add onto above....

The 'sky high' tickets are not  bad.  I sit up there all the time as I am friends with a couple who have season tix up there.  In fact I was sitting up there last Friday when Kobe scored 65 and still enjoyed the game quite a bit.  With the lights being off in Staples Center now I think it really keeps you focused on the court and it lights the court up alot so you can see well.  Before being that high up had a bit of a distraction because you could see everyone and everything but that really is not the case anymore.

I've sat really close and really high.  Obviously being closer to the action is nicer but it is not like sitting up high kills the fun.  If the game is interesting and fun, you have a blast up there.

[Lurker]

Good analysis koast!

Many don't realize it but the Spurs are a very efficient offensive team.  They are currently third in the NBA in fg%, 9th in assists, 5th in turnovers.  The difference is that they work very hard to control the tempo (where do you think Avery learned this) so they don't take as many shots as a Dallas or Phoenix. 

[westkoast]

Good analysis koast!

Many don't realize it but the Spurs are a very efficient offensive team.  They are currently third in the NBA in fg%, 9th in assists, 5th in turnovers.  The difference is that they work very hard to control the tempo (where do you think Avery learned this) so they don't take as many shots as a Dallas or Phoenix. 

That is exactly it.  They focus in on controlling tempo on both sides.  In order to do that they have to play slower.  That is part of their strength.  They throttle their tempo whereas a PHX is peddle to the metal.  While that works for them quite a bit as you know if you are driving fast all the time when you crash (in this case, start to miss shots) you really hurt yourself more then the team taking their time and choosing where/when to strike.  In the regular season it doesn't matter so much to lose a game here and there for that reason.  In the playoffs it is obviously a different story and part of the reason why PHX cannot win a championship.

The Spurs focus on defense first and offense second.  If they were to reverse that and open the court up more they could clear 100 points a night but would not always be a top 3 team year in and year out.

[WayOutWest]

Good analysis koast!

Many don't realize it but the Spurs are a very efficient offensive team.  They are currently third in the NBA in fg%, 9th in assists, 5th in turnovers.  The difference is that they work very hard to control the tempo (where do you think Avery learned this) so they don't take as many shots as a Dallas or Phoenix. 

I heard on TNT when the Mavs were playing the Cavs that the Mavs are the 3rd most efficient team on defense.  They allow the 3rd lowest opponents scoring, they seem to have the perfect balance of offense and defense of any team this year.  IMO the Spurs are the biggest threat to the Mavs but I don't think the Spurs have what it takes to beat the Mavs, I think the Mavs showed who the better team was last year and the Mavs have gotten better and the Spurs have not.  Hopefully TD will go into the playoffs rested and healthy, I know TD was not 100% last year and they still made a tough series out of it.

[msc]

Great points westkoast and everyone else re: the Spurs.  I'm definitely not dissing them in any way shape or form.  I'm just of the opinion that the Lakers match up better with them, especially because of the slower tempo.  That's what the triangle is geared toward ... playing that half court game that always comes to the surface during the playoffs. 

The sad fact is, well sad for me ;-), is that the Lakers will get their butts handed to them by either one of these teams, so it's kind of moot, but still fun to talk about nonetheless.

I'm also in agreement with WOW in that Dallas is the team to beat, but the Spurs have the best shot of beating them.  The Mavs play awesome O and great D, while the Suns only have one side of that equation figured out so far. 

[Lurker]

I firmly believe that the Mavs & Spurs will meet in the WCF.  The Suns will be a strong test...especially in a 7 game series but the Mavs & Spurs are built for playoff basketball.

It is really interesting to see how close the two Texas teams are statistically:

Category - Mavs (rank) - Spurs (rank)
Scoring - 100.7 (  97.8 (14)
Def Scoring - 92.2 (3)  89.5 (1)
Scoring Diff - 8.5 (1)  8.3 (2)
FG Diff - .019 (7)  .023 (2)
FG % - .467 (5)  .470 (3)
Def FG % - .448 (7)  .442 (3)
3 pt % - .382 (3)  .374 (6)
TO Diff - .63  both teams tied for 7th
Blocks - 5.10 (10)  5.12 (9)

Biggest differences...
FT%  .810 (1)   .751 (15)
Fouls  22.15 (13)  19.45 (1)

Another interesting note...Mavs average 25.10 FT per game while giving 26.55.  Spurs take 23.67 while giving 21.33.  Playoff series will be decided at the FT line...like games 4 & 7 in last year's series.

[rickortreat]

Don't discount the Suns because they don't try to defend.  They don't need to defend when they're clicking.  IMO, the Suns/Spurs would be a great match up thanks to they styles of the teams.  LA could stay with them for a game or two, but cannot stay with Phoenix over a 7 game series.

Can the Spurs control the tempo against the Suns? Not with Amare in there!

The thing is the Spurs face Denver in the first round, if things stay the same. I know this may be blasphemy for Spurs fans, but Denver is coming into peak form at the right time and teams have no way to deal with AI and Mello at the same time. 

Part of this is because no one has seen the Nuggets together for any length of time.  How do you defend against a team, when you don't know how they're going to attack you? 

Parker will get embarrassed by AI.  Just watch.  Not that this will be a cakewalk- for either team, far from it.  But SA can't go into it's patient, dump it in to TD, when Denver is going full out.  They won't be able to keep up the scoring- not that they can't, but they're not used to that tempo. 

The Spurs win when they can pressure other teams their high shooting percentage makes them very tough.  But IMO, they can't pressure Denver.  That puts the pressure on them.

[westkoast]

Part of this is because no one has seen the Nuggets together for any length of time.  How do you defend against a team, when you don't know how they're going to attack you? 

The reverse to that is...how do you attack an opposing team, when you don't know how you are going to attack them?

To me it seems as if Denver isn't sure what it wants to do and when to do it.  They have the talent and can score but it seems to be sparatic (sp?) and from all directions.  Not in the same style of PHX though.  They come from many different directions but Nash controls that.  No one on Denver really controls per say.

Denver IMO would get handled by the Spurs.....

[rickortreat]

West, that's probably true- the Nuggets haven't been together long enough to have an identity.  But they have enough talent as ball players to make it work anyway!

Think about that for a second. The hardest teams to defend in basketball are ones that are spontaneous.  Denver has a lot of talent and are very tough to deal with because of that.

When they went to Phoenix and rocked the Suns, they were shocked.  Also, their comments were like "these guys are very tough to deal with."  This is the Suns, the top scoring team in the NBA and Denver outscored them in their own building!  That's not easy for any team to do  - beat the Suns at their own game.

I say Denver is the wild card because they are an unknown quantity.  We know what Houston can do- Sir Charles says, they are in disarray on offense.

What Denver has demonstrated over the last 5 including the last second loss to Chicago- is that the ball is shared equally by both Carmello and AI - Here's a team with an inside threat, and the fastest scoring guard in the game.

There are no stats to compare Denver with other teams.  Everyone else has been together all year.  These guys haven't been playing together for a month.

What would their record be if they started the season with the team they have.   And it's not just those two.  Camby, Nene and the others are very talented players- The Nuggets knew they were another star player away, so they grabbed the chance to take AI.  George Karl is a very good coach with a deep understanding of the game and how to exploit other team's weaknesses.

I am going out on a limb here, and say that San Antonio gets upset in the first round. 

I think the word you were thinking of is "sporadic".  Another adjective you might want to apply is dynamic.

They aren't a tested team yet, by any means.  They themselves don't even know how good they are.  Watch out for these guys if they come into the playoffs hot.  Currently LA will face the Spurs and the Nuggets face the Suns.  It doesn't matter - whoever comes out of these series will likely face each other in the next round.

Naturally everone would rank these teams on the basis of their 82 game record, and place Denver last out of the four.  IMO, that is a big mistake.

[Reality]

I am going out on a limb here, and say that San Antonio gets upset in the first round. 

Frankie Elson just rejected that into the 12th row.

[Lurker]

Yes, Rick, Denver went in and OUTSCORED Phoenix playing their game.  The whole point is that style of play (run, score & no defense) doesn't win in the playoffs.  When faced with teams that apply defense Denver struggles...even with all their scorers.

The problem with Denver is twofold:  1)they don't play TEAM defense, and 2) they don't play TEAM offense.  Their offense runs almost no plays.  It totally depends on the athletic abilities of Iverson & Melo...a terrible strategy for winning in the playoffs.  Their scoring has gone up since acquiring AI but at the same time their defense also has been allowing more points.  The Nuggets give up more assists than they get, they shoot FTs worse than the Spurs (that says a lot right there), they have NO 3 pt threat, they average more turnovers than their opponents...in short they win 50% of the time because of superior talent.  In the playoffs superior teams almost always win out over superior talent.

[WayOutWest]

If Denver faces the Spurs in the first round they will ONE game if they are lucky.

If Denver faces the Suns in the first round they will probably win two games.

[Reality]

^^^Reality, ya I can check on Sunday, but it's kind of moot as the playoff tix are a whole different product.  I'm not sure where you're looking to sit, but I can tell you what the face value is on just about every seat in there so you have a reference.  Also, you might want to try stubhub, ebay and Craigslist.  I'm not advocating those sites in any way, but you will at least be able to gauge what tix are trading at for specific games. 

msc were you able to find anything out?
W.O.W. can you slide over to Staples and see what shakes down 5-10 minutes after the game starts?