Why I think Philly will upset Detroit.

[Rickortreat]

The Defending Champs have some very good qualities.  They play defense very physically and force turnovers.  They control the tempo of the game with rebounding. They execute well on offence, with Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace.

But here's where they're weak:  They don't score a lot of points.  Ben Wallace isn't a great inside player on offense.  They get alot of technicals.  Larry Brown is not good at exploiting matchups (against his religion).  If they can't control the tempo they can't win- because they can't score with other teams.

The Sixers can run with anybody.  They score more points on an average night than most teams in the NBA.  They can spread the floor with outside shooters like Kyle Korver and Rodney Rogers.  Dalembert, if he can stay out of foul trouble is faster up and down the floor than Ben Wallace, and he can score over the top of Detroit's defense.  The Sixers force turnovers, which lead to easy buckets- Iverson forces more steals than anyone in the league, Andre Igoudala is 8th.  Chris Webber gets the chance to show that he is still a star in the NBA.  He knows how to play against Sheed.  He's quick enough on offense to mess with Ben Wallace.

Detroit is more physical than the Sixers, but the Sixers have more depth.  Marc Jackson won't get backed down or pushed out of the middle by Ben Wallace and he can shoot from outside, pulling Wallace away from under the basket.  Fresh legs and spry guards are problems for the Pistons, and the Sixers have Allen Iverson, one of the most dangerous disuptive scorers in the game.  He's also third in the league in assists.  I expect Detroit to focus too much on AI (He will make them) and that will get Dalembert, Webber, and Korver off.  Igoudala, will put more pressure on Hamilton than he's used to, and if he forces a turnover that leads to a break-away dunk, the Pistons will start to feel pressure.  The Pistons like to apply pressure and break the other teams will.  Tough to do against the Sixers, they have a lot of will.

The key for the Sixers is to keep Detroit from executing successfully on offense.  If they can keep the game from being a half-court walk it up game, the Pistons will have trouble scoring enough points.

It is critical for the Sixers to win one of the first two, just to get confidence in themselves.  It will by psychologically troubling to the Pistons if they loose homecout advantage to the Sixers, and the longer the series goes, the harder it will be for the Pistons to maintain their swagger.

[Reality]

Detroit can run (T Prince Billups Hamilton A Mcdyess) they just chose not to most of the time last year.  Instead relying on stifling D and set O.

Sheed-Webber will indeed be an interesting matchup.  'Sheed had plenty to prove last years playoffs and did extremely well.  Is he still motivated or will we see a return to sulking pouting meism ala Spreewell, other chip-on-their-shoulders *victims*.  If Sheed is on top of his game I can't see Webbers knee standing a chance.

 

[Guest_Randy]

Philly HAS to rebound the basketball to beat Detroit -- by that, I mean they have to outrebound Detroit.  Philly doesn't shoot a high percentage so rebounding becomes a vital line item -- the problem is that Detroit is a MUCH better rebounding team than Philly.

Let's break it down this way:

PG - AI vs. Billups - point to Sixers
     Billups can't contain AI -- of course, the Pistons will use Hamilton and committee to guard AI.  Detroit actually WANTS AI to shoot -- they just want to make him shoot from the perimeter and their defense actually makes this a strong possibility.

SG - Hamilton vs. Igoudala - point to Pistons
     Igoudala is a good defender and he will do a good job on Hamilton -- Hamilton is just a better player, at this point, than Andre is.

SF - Prince vs. Korver - point to Pistons
     Prince is an outstanding defender and an underrated offensive player.  He is better on both ends of the court than Korver is.

PF - Sheed vs. Webber - edge to Pistons
     IF Webber were healthy (we all know he isn't), Webber would beat Sheed but that isn't the case.  Webber is a better rebounder (even hobbled) but Sheed can shoot from outside and Webber simply can't guard him out there.  Dalembert can't guard Sheed outside either so this spells trouble for the Sixers.  Webber also doesn't have any lift and Sheed is a good shotblocker and is longer and taller than CWebb.  Webber will help the Sixers in rebounding and passing on offense but Sheed gets the better of Webber in the end in this series.

C - Dalembert vs. Big Ben - point to Pistons (heck, almost 2 points)
     Big Ben isn't a great offensive player but he is head and shoulders over Dalembert who is a horrible offensive player.  Wallace is quicker than Dalembert, a better shotblocker, a better rebounder and a better team defender.

Bench - point to Detroit.

Coaching - 2 points to Detroit -- negative 1 for Sixers.

Detroit is a better defensive team AND a better offensive team than the Sixers.  There isn't any question in whether Detroit will win or not -- it's how many games they will lose.

[Rickortreat]

Larry Brown won't let them run, or rather, he won't let them go to an uptempo game.  He likes games in the 80's and low 90's.  He likes defense and to stay in control.

He knows that Ben Wallace isn't a good floor runner.  He knows that his defense can't be effective in an open-court game.  If he's had the chance to watch the Sixers, he knows that when the Sixers run, they win.  They pass better, they work harder on defense and they stay focued better.

The Sixers like games at 100 or higher, faster tempo, more shots, more pressure on the other team to come up with ways to score against their quick defense.  

Detroit wins ugly.  I hate the way they play.  I hated the way the Sixers played on offense when Brown coached here.  I liked the defense, but only when it led to quick, easy buckets on the other end.  Brown likes to grind teams down.  Most don't have the patience to execute effectively in a half-court set against the pressure.  Even LA with Shaq and Kobe had trouble executing against that D.

The Sixers aren't nearly as good on defense as they were the year they went to the finals.  But they are much better offensively.  They are OK in the halfcourt against the weaker teams, but Detroit usually makes it very hard for the Sixers to score.  If A.I. focuses on running the offense, and the team passes the ball well enough to defeat Detroit they can win, but this goes against the Sixers nature.  AI gets too impatient and tries to force things.  When he does, he misses shots and the other team gets easy buckets.  The Sixers will need to be very disciplined on offense when in the half-court. It all comes down to AI being in control.

If during the first few minutes, AI is focused on getting assists, getting Webber and Dalembert going, that will be a very good sign.  It's ok, if he penetrates and gets an easy bucket or two himself, but he must get the inside players for the Sixers going.  

Detroit must control the tempo, if the games get into the 100's, they're going down.  AI will try to steal a game right off the bat.  If he does, watch out.  

[Derek Bodner]

Larry Brown won't let them run, or rather, he won't let them go to an uptempo game

Do you even remember our finals team?  That's all we did was run.  Larry loves the fast break.

Revisionist history.

[JoMal]

Also remember that Detriot is Webber's home town and there are lots of deep-pock people there willing to slip a coin or two to Chris to make sure of the outcome.

After all, C-Webb has to feed his family.

[rickortreat]

No Dabods, the Sixers ran off turnovers they forced on defense.  Brown liked easy baskets and the Sixers were a very poor half-court offensive team.

Detroit does the same thing, they want to run, but don't want the opposing team to get any easy baskets.  They keep the score low and choke other teams.  When did you ever see the Pistons in a running game under Brown, what kind of a running game does a team that keeps games in the low 90's have?

Randy, you're very right about the rebounding.  If the Pistons get a lot of second-chance shots, the Sixers will loose.

As far as the breakdowns:  Igoudala is a great defender.  Hamilton will work hard and try to get Andre picked off on screens.  But Hamilton isn't a big strong player, and Andre is as quick.  His job won't be to score, but to contain Hamilton, not an easy task to be sure, but he will make Rip work very hard to get open.

Prince is a better defender than Korver, but Kover is a better outside shooter, by far.  Prince is not a primary scorer for Detroit, and Korver isn't a primary scorer for the Sixers.  Prince likes to go inside to disrupt things- he's very good at that.  But if he leaves Korver, the Sixers will make him pay.  It's not so much of an advantage as you think.

Sheed vs. Webber- Dead on. Hopefully Chris can goad Sheed into getting technicals.  Chris has a higher scoring average than Sheed.  

Dalembert vs. Wallace- Wallace is a better defender and rebounder.  Dalembert is better on the offensive end, and shoots a higher percentage.  He also runs the floor better.  Edge to Detroit for sure, but Dalembert causes lots of problems for other teams IF he stays out of foul trouble.
 
Bench, I'm not so sure,  I like the Sixers bench, Rogers, Jackson and McKie are all very solid players.  Green and Salmons are young but good players.  Detroit uses their bench much more with Hunter, McDyess and Campbell, but none of them are great scorers.  Rogers and Jackson routinely put up better numbers.

Detroit is a better defensive team, they are NOT a better offensive team.  They don't try to outscore opponents, they don't have the firepower.  

[Guest_Randy]

Rick

Korver shoots better from downtown (41% to 34%) but Prince shoots 48% from the floor while Korver shoots 42%.  

As for Detroit not being a great offensive team, 44% from the floor and 42% from the arch (he shoots BETTER than your vaunted Korver from the arch and better from the floor).  

Billups, Hamilton, Prince, Sheed and Wallace.  By-the-way, somehow you see Philly as a MUCH better offensive squad than the stats support.  Detroit shoots a better FG% than Philly and is only a few percentage points behind Philly at the 3 point line.  

I don't think Philly is as good offensively, as you think they are.  And the bottom line is that Detroit isn't going to let the Sixers crash the boards.  If everyone is healthy, on both squads, I don't see Philly winning more than a game -- two if they are lucky.

Bottom line, Philly isn't that much better offensively than Detroit -- and Detroit is a LOT better defensively and in rebounding.  Doesn't bode well for Philly.

[rickortreat]

Randy,

You must understand that the Sixers are a young, evolving team that has gone through many changes over the season.  If you use the entire year's schedule as a baseline, IMO, you're not going to get an accurate picture of how good the Sixers are now.

I have watched them over the course of the season, and it was really only in the last few weeks of the season, that the team started to really improve.  Of course, there were setbacks along the way, as well as some very impressive wins.

I can't tell you for sure which Sixer team will show up to play, all I can do is give my best guess based on what I saw over the past few weeks, leading up to the playoffs.

As you know, teams with a reason to play, work very hard at the end of the year, and the Sixers met most challenges ably.  There were a couple of looses I really didn't like, like the loss to Boston, that might have enabled the Sixer to move up to the 3 spot.  But they also won games against teams that had been playig very well like the Pacers.

The progress has been uneven, with advances and regressions from one game to the next and one week to the next, but that is the nature of a young team that still hasn't found a way to win consistently.

44% isn't a great figure for Detroit, the key stat is how many points a game the score vs. their opponents.  The Sixers average closer to 100 than to 90,  the difference is around 6 pts. per game.  Detroit wins by shutting down oppossing teams, and they are very good at it.  Earlier in the year, there was no way the Sixers could win, and everytime they played Detroit, they lost.  

But the offense has been devloping nicely.  The team has had time to practice and pay against tough defenses, and they have learned how to break down zones, with a quick pass to an open 3, and also how to find the seams that allow players to drive the lane.  Of course, AI can break down anybody, and when the second and third man come, there's allways someone open to make the other team pay for doubling.

I think and hope they're ready for Detroit.  The do have the players. Dalembert is a lot taller than Wallace and quicker in the post.  He's not a primary scorer, but has been the height to score over the top of Ben Wallace, and the size to keep him from the boards.  He can also go outside simply to draw big Ben away, and has on occaision actually hit an outside open shot.  (Not my first choice!)

It comes down to who controls the tempo, and it has a lot to do with rebounding, second chance shots and the like.  The last time the two teams played, Philly romped, 107-84, but Rip was out with a bad ankle. Both AI's and CWebb were scorig easilly.  Now with Rip back and healthy, Detroit won't have as much trouble scoring and will limit the Sixers breaks, but the Sixers now know they CAN beat Detroit.  

You don't think the Sixers, particularly Iverson and Webber aren't motivated to win?  You think that Dalmebert, Korver and Igoudala will wilt under pressure, that Rogers won't shoot the 3 well, or that Merc Jackson won't be effective as a backup?  Could be, but I don't think so.  Btw, most of the sports writers agree with you, even the Philly ones.  However, I've gone against the concensus view before and been proven right.  Who else besides me picked Detroit to beat LA last year?  Wasn't it you who responded facetiously with something to the effect of "gee Rick, makes me think LA doesn't have a chance!?