The Western Playoffs

[JoMal]

Think we are now close enough to the post season to start speculating on various teams' chance when the games really count. Last time I looked, the top 8 western teams were separated by 5 games, and the worst - Golden State - had a winning percentage of .629. A .629 puts them in a virtual tie in the Eastern Conference with third place Orlando (.631).

So what I am thinking is that there really is no out and out favorite in the west. You don't get a winning percentage that high by just beating up the second tier teams in the NBA. Any of these teams could win it all if they get hot.

So how to differentiate amongst teams like these? Having a defensive rep, such as the Jazz, the Rockets, and the Spurs, certainly makes you think they can do well in the playoffs. But a good offense might stir things up, so the Lakers, the Suns, and Hornets certainly could take a series or two if their shooters can't miss for a while. And both Dallas and Golden State have the players and experience to cause some trouble as well.

One thing I thought of was road records. If a team won on the road, could play defense, and had a decent enough offense, it would go far. Teams with winning records on the road, in order, are the Lakers (22-11), the Hornets (20-10), Houston (19-11), Phoenix (19-12), the Warriors (18-13), and the Spurs (17-14). Which means it makes sense to eliminate Dallas and Utah, both of whom look to have losing records by season's end. Same with Denver if they were to subplant one of the current eight. 

Teams with good defenses AND good road records include the Spurs (third in the League), the Rockets (fourth), and the Hornets (fifth). And of these three, only the Hornets have an offense in the top of the League, at 11th. The Rockets are sixteenth, and the Spurs are way down at 23rd.

But it is also true that maybe your defense just has to be good enough to keep the other team at bay while you score at will. Point differential is a good way to figure out the balance over the course of a season. And here, the rankings are truly interesting.

In League ranking, with point differential in parenthesis, we have: 

3  Los Angeles Lakers (7.5)
4  Utah Jazz (6.0)
5  Houston Rockets (5.3)
6  San Antonio Spurs (5.0)
7  New Orlean Hornets (5.0)
8  Phoenix Suns (4.5)
10 Dallas Mavericks (4.1)
12 Golden State Warriors (3.1)

(It is interesting to note that the top two teams here, as well as considered the best defensive teams are the two top Eastern teams, the Boston Celtics (10.4), and Detriot Pistons. (7.7). But, um, neither has to play over half their games against these Western Conference powerhouses. I have to think it would alter those rankings quite a bit if they did.)

I would go with those top four teams on this list getting out of the first round, depending on who they match up with at that time. Because another criteria that has to be thought of is how each team matches up with the others. As the Warriors showed last year, it could and did topple the top team simply because they had lousy matchups.

As it stands right now, the Lakers should take out Golden State, the Spurs should blitz the Mavericks, Houston ought to beat the Suns, and the Jazz should barely fall to the Hornets unless the Jazz gets a win or two from the refs, because they have no other dividing rod between them. 

This is going to be interesting. How would you like to be one of these teams and get bounced out in the first round? All that regular season winning for nothing.

[Randy]

JoMal,

Rick clearly enlightened us in pointing out that only the last 10 games really matter -- in the last 10 games the Lakers have beat their opponents by an average of almost 12 points per game (including 2 losses in that 10 game streak).  Obviously, this shows that the Lakers are clearly the blowing everyone away (with the exception of the two teams that beat us) and that no one stands a chance with the Lakers in the playoffs.  This leads me to the following conclusions:

2008 NBA Finals Prediction: 
      Lakers vs. Sixers (of course, I predict that the Lakers win in four games beating their average of 13 per contest - I didn't just reach for this number, I combined the point differential from both of the Laker wins and divided them by two.  Of course, neither of these two wins were in the last 10 games so I'm not sure they count anymore).

[JoMal]

JoMal,

-- in the last 10 games the Lakers have beat their opponents by an average of almost 12 points per game (including 2 losses in that 10 game streak).  Obviously, this shows that the Lakers are clearly the blowing everyone away (with the exception of the two teams that beat us) and that no one stands a chance with the Lakers in the playoffs.  This leads me to the following conclusions:

...except for that other western team that has been beating opponents by double digits over the same length of games, with the slight exception being they HAVEN'T lost to anyone during that time.

[Randy]

JoMal,

-- in the last 10 games the Lakers have beat their opponents by an average of almost 12 points per game (including 2 losses in that 10 game streak).  Obviously, this shows that the Lakers are clearly the blowing everyone away (with the exception of the two teams that beat us) and that no one stands a chance with the Lakers in the playoffs.  This leads me to the following conclusions:

...except for that other western team that has been beating opponents by double digits over the same length of games, with the slight exception being they HAVEN'T lost to anyone during that time.

Yeah, you are right, imagine what the Rockets record would have been had Yao gone out earlier in the season -- they would have the best record in the NBA right now!

[westkoast]

There really is no clear winner.  The Spurs have the edge over everyone but I wouldn't say they are a shoe in to win the Western Conference.  Spurses have to admit there is a few teams that at least make you guys concerned.   You can literally make a solid case for any of the top 6 teams in the WC.  2 upsets out of  top 4 seeds would not really suprise me.  Dallas could take Houston in a playoff series.

Some teams don't really need to feel too bad if they do in fact lose.  These playoffs are going to be as tough as it has been in ages.  Aside from The Suns and Mavericks I think if any of the other teams lose it's not a huge deal.

Suns or Mavericks: I think they would be very very upset if they get bounced in the first round.  After going "all-in" to land Shaq and Kidd it would really send both franchises into a little bit of a tail spin at least for the next few years.  Steve Kerr most likely will perform sepaku in a back office.

Lakers:  Upset especially all the hype surrounding the team and the great regular season but they can be back in the hunt next year with their line up.  Not as critical to go far as Dallas or PHX.

Spurs: Upset for not being able to defend another title but they are in the same boat as the Lakers where they will be able to compete next year with their core.

Hornets: Chalk it up to playoff experience and just know the Western conference is no joke.  They WILL be back next year and even better then this year which is super scary.

Houston: Big let down but not having Yao Ming may play a bigger factor then it has during this streak.

Nuggets/Warriors: Take it in stride because the Western Conference is packed and they didn't make moves to really improve.