OK before we start lets dispense with the "Rosen is a jerk" references, as we get those each time someone posts his comments. In fact lets stipulate that he is a jerk, and get onto discussing whether or not his opinions have any validity.
How do you accurately evaluate an NBA player?
They all have top-of-the-line talent or else they'd be playing elsewhere. But some get dozens of touches during any given ballgame, while others are mere functionaries whose possessions are created either by their own hustle and intelligence, or by the largesse of their teammates.
Some players are effective on both ends of the court. Some only excel with the ball in their hands and are useless otherwise — and vice versa. Some are habitual winners. Others are chronic losers. Some are (either justly or unjustly) celebrated by the media, while others toot their own horns. And the true effectiveness of some players is known and appreciated only by their teammates, the league's coaches and the unusually discerning fans.
To discover which players are indeed outstanding performers and which only appear to be, we must look past the numbers and beyond the highlight snippets. We must also ignore those pundits who can only grasp the obvious.
So let's take our annual look at those players whose true value is less than meets the eye.
No. 1 Baron DavisOver the course of his career, Davis has missed 34 percent of his free throws and more than 59 percent of his field goals. Blame impatience and lack of concentration for the former, and a penchant for forcing shots for the latter.
Davis' numerous ill-advised shots are symptomatic of his selfishness, carelessness and habit of playing out of control. Because he's overly concerned with his passes being highlighted on the evening highlights, Davis inevitably chooses to risk spectacular passes when simpler ones are in order. He's so focused on scoring that he'll assault the offensive boards with no regard to maintaining court balance — thereby leaving his team vulnerable to fastbreaks.
Davis is also surprisingly ineffective in screen-and-roll situations at both ends of the court. On offense, he'll try to split any resultant double-teams, and on defense, he's simply too passive. Intelligent defense (pressure and containment) can force him into turnovers.
For the past few seasons, Davis lobbied to be traded because the Hornets were consistently an underachieving ball club. If he had looked in the mirror, Davis would have seen a big reason why this was so.
No. 2 Peja Stojakovic
Peja can shoot the lights out as long as no one's in his face — and as long as a ballgame isn't on the line. His defense is abysmal, and too many of his passes are up for grabs. But Peja's shortcomings are much more evident in the playoffs than they are in the regular season. Granted that the competition is at a higher level in postseason games, Peja's comparative stats are alarming:
Regular Season Playoffs
FG% .465 .419
3-point FG% .398 .354
Assists 2.0 1.3
PPG 18.5 17.3
Fouls 1.8 2.2
Even Chris Webber, another infamous choker, derided Peja's habit of folding in the playoffs.
Besides the increased competition, there are several reasons why a player routinely fails to deliver in postseason play:
A lack of confidence that manifests as a (justified and therefore self-fulfilling) fear of failure.
An inability to hone his concentration.
A stubborn mind-set that refuses to make necessary adjustments.
An absence of inner resources (physical, psychological, and/or emotional) that can boost his game to the next level.
Or just a lack of courage.
Whatever the reasons may be, when the going gets tough, Peja is long gone.
No. 3 Shareef Abdur-Rahim
This guy's been in the league for nine years and, despite his otherwise impressive numbers, has never come close to playing on a winning team. Indeed, the cumulative record of Abdur-Rahim's NBA employers shows a winning percentage of less than 40 percent. As the venerable Hubie Brown always says, "Beware of guys who put up good numbers on bad teams."
Why is this so? Because players on inferior teams have no pressure to succeed and gifted players on bad teams get more touches and more shots than they would on a contending team.
So it is that Abdur-Rahim, while a talented low-post scorer, needs lots of one-on-one spacing and one-on-one time to do his damage. His efforts, then, tend to make spectators of his teammates.
Moreover, Abdur-Rahim is one of the least physical power forwards in the league and can be bullied from pillar to post. His defense consists of risky attempts to steal incoming passes, or to poach the passing lanes.
To sum things up, Abdur-Rahim was not nearly the savior that long-suffering Portland fans hoped he would be.
No. 4 Wally SzczerbiakThe Statue of Liberty with a jump shot. Does he have good hands? Can he drive either way? Can he plug open jumpers? Yes, yes and yes.
Can he out-quick Lady Liberty? Can he defend against her movement with and without the ball? Can he dribble the ball twice without being picked? Can he work and play well with others? Can he pass a mirror without pausing to flex his biceps or his pecs?
To quote from The Mikado:
"No, never."
"Never?"
"Hardly ever."
In truth, Wally's World stars the NBA's latest White Heap.
No. 5 Darius Miles
Because Miles can run and jump, has long arms, is an improving shooter and has a terrific right-to-left crossover (but only from the left side), he has convinced himself that he's one of the league's premier players. Forget about his being a weakling who gets bumped and thumped whenever he ventures into the lane. Or his desire to flip the ball rather than take a hit and dunk it. Or the poor decisions he makes when pressured. Forget about his light-footed, bodiless defense that relies almost totally on successful gambles in the passing lanes. Or his knuckleheaded arrogance.
Despite all the evidence to the contrary, Miles continues to believe that he's The Man in Portland. Too bad he doesn't even come close.
No. 6 Antoine Walker
Here's a talented passer who doesn't like to pass. A shooter without a conscience. A veteran who plays as mindlessly as a rookie. Entering his 10th NBA season, Walker still has little interest in playing defense. Indeed, the only results of his long career have been an increased deadening of his legs and locking of his brain. No matter what he might say to the contrary, Walker wants to start and wants to launch his 3-pointers unencumbered by his coach's stratagems, or his teammates' displeasure.
Beware, Heat fans. Walker's selfishness, lack of defense and general grouchiness can be contagious.
No. 7 Pau Gasol
Pau Gasol's teammates complain about his "softness." (Joe Murphy/NBAE / Getty Images)
If his arms were two inches shorter, Gasol would be a run-of-the-mill player. Sure, he's got lots of junk in his trunk: Hooks with both hands, turnaround jumpers (over his right shoulder), jab steps (and drives the opposite way), and, when he turns and faces, inside reverse pivots. Still, despite the fact that he's a good passer, Gasol looks to go one-on-one at every opportunity. Even worse, his post-up moves are predictable and Frankensteinish; defenders attack his legs because he has no power in his lower body, and — worse still — teammates complain about how soft he is.
Look for Gasol to start the season with rambunctious energy, and then gradually fade as opponents begin to exploit his physical shortcomings. Interesting, isn't it, how many golden headlines Gasol generates with such a leaden game?
Dishonorable mention
I've been on Allen Iverson's case for years — for taking so many wild, quick shots that his team can't sustain any offensive patterns.
Chris Webber would have been a holdover from last season's overrated list except that his deficiencies (in judgment, defense and heart) have become common knowledge.
Kenyon Martin's big mouth and small game have likewise been publicly exposed and no longer need to be highlighted.
Ditto with Zach Randolph's big belly and invisible defense.
Vince Carter has run out of excuses for his playoff failures, but Jason Kidd will keep his flashy-yet-substanceless game on track until April.
Carmelo Anthony would graduate into true superstardom if he expended more effort on learning how to defend, making crisp and timely passes and on acting like an adult. So far, Anthony's response to all of his lame-brain misplays (on and off the court) is to talk about water under the bridge, and moving on, etc. Some day this kid will grow up, but not in the foreseeable future.
If Richard Jefferson played in Toronto, Memphis, or anywhere outside of the New York area, he'd be considered just another all-jump-no-shot performer.
Elton Brand is only interested in scoring. That's why he works harder for offensive rebounds than he does for the other kind.
Most of his ex-coaches agree that Stromile Swift is "a dog."
