Messages

1021

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Playoffs, we're talking Playoffs?!?!?

« on: July 06, 2008, 01:56:36 PM »

Your top 4 are solid for now, but after that it is a complete scramble. 

You hit it on the head with Washington and the health issues which loom large, but they are likely in the running for the 5-8 spots. 

Cleveland has LeBron and   I literally hate the rest of their team, has beens, old guys and never were's mostly.  The few useful guys are pretty flawed.  They have a ton of expiring contracts so I expect them to be busy at the trade deadline.  If LeBron even gets a partial season injury, say 20 games, they could be hard pressed to make the playoffs.

Miami still looks like a bad team to me. No PG, no C, Wade is always a good candidate for the IR at some point and Beasley and Marion look like they might get in each other's way.  I don't think Riley would mind one more trip to lottery land before they go after Boozer next summer.  Expect their big turn around to more likely happen next year.

Charlotte will make a trade a week with LB and MJ in charge, but they will improve some, who knows how much.

Milwaukee, meh?  They still look a mess.

Even if they just re-sign their own RFA's, both Atlanta and Philly will improve based on internal maturing of their younger players.  Not as exciting of a way to improve as FA, but it should happen for both teams.  How much improvement is to be determined.  Things would definitely tilt in the Sixers' favor if Smith signs here, and if not we still have cap space to make other moves this summer or at the deadline.  Plus we had a first round pick this year and they did not.

Chicago has to make some more moves, specifically for a post scorer, but could be this year's turn around team from last year's lottery.

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Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Nenad Kristic

« on: July 06, 2008, 01:39:29 PM »

Reggie Evans is under contract for two more years?  Seriously?  Crap

Reggie, Willie and Sammy all have three more years left on their respective deals.  BK specials by signing or trade.  At least Calvin Booth is done after this year.  If we get a shooting guard this summer, Carney for Kristic is more likely to happen than Evans or Green for Kristic.

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Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Point Guard options

« on: July 06, 2008, 12:39:43 PM »

The next years draft statement bothers me because unless the sixers take a giant step backwards (or LOTS of eastern teams take huge steps forward) the sixers are most likely a low lottery/low teens pick again next year, and even if there are a lot of quality PGs in the draft, the sixers won't have a shot at one

We should have two picks in next years draft, depending on how Utah finishes, plus several attractive young trade pieces if we really want a guy and have to move up.  My concern is that we waste some of those assets in a half-@ssed move to please the fanbase when our top 2-3 plans don't work out this summer.  I hope it does not come to that.

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Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Nenad Kristic

« on: July 06, 2008, 12:35:24 PM »

Problem is NJ won't likely take on contracts that go past summer 2010 very easily.  If we move a big or two in acquiring other players of real need, then Kristic would be a decent gamble on the cheap.  If he really thinks he is going to be healthy this year he should sign a one year deal, put up big numbers for NJ and hit the UFA market next year in a stronger position.

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Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Tracking Free Agency

« on: July 06, 2008, 12:32:11 PM »

I read both of the Miller stories earlier today and both the GS and Miami stuff just seems like a writer postulating.  It is worth keeping track of much buzz builds around the league for teams wanting Miller.  It may be that as FA and the summer in general move along there will be more teams focusing on Miller as a PG solution.  It was a weak PG draft and an even weaker crop of FA PG's that might or have moved.  If your team needs a PG and your FA choices are Tinsley or Starbury (once they are bought out), then the group of Hinrich, Miller and the Memphis guys becomes way more attractive.

1026

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Tracking Free Agency

« on: July 05, 2008, 11:53:28 PM »

Marty Burns from Si sums up the Sixers first choices pretty well:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/marty_burns/07/03/sixers/index.html

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Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Our own RFA's

« on: July 05, 2008, 02:16:22 PM »

Some of the answers to their problems may already on the roster.  Low post scoring and shooting will be better as these players mature.  Unfortunately, a new huge hole will open when Miller departs.

I think if we had been able to add Brand we would have been a very competetive team in the East this year.  In two years (If Miller stayed and we added a shooter) that team could make the ECF or even the finals.

Without Brand or Miller this team is several major pieces away, but heading in the right direction.  Adding Smith would be a step in the right direction, making the Sixers one of a few young talented teams that could be in position to contend in 2-3 years.

Very good summation.  The Brand/Miller comb would have been our only real "win now" possibility.  Anything else is part of the ongoing rebuild, and far more sensible.  Josh Smith could be a huge part in that process or a big hinderance, depending on where his game goes from here.  Underlying Jem's statement is a legitimate concern over whether as a big money player he will work to close the holes in his game or go the opposite way. 

I also agree that some of what we are looking for might already be on our roster.  More and more I want to see what Thad, Jason Smith and Speights do this year.  It may well be that Speights and Thad give us the post-up presence we need (and so could Iggy playing the 2) and our own J Smith could develop into the perimeter oriented big that we need.  Then we could focus our future cap money and trade assets into finding Miller's replacement.  Trading for Marion gives us that year to see the young guys develop more while generating produuctivity from the 4 spot.  We would be evaluating the young guys and Marion at the same time and by the deadline next year, or by the summer, would have a better idea of where to go on all fronts.  In addition I want to grab one more permanent (i.e. 4-5 year) piece of the puzzle in Gordon, Maggette or Childress, probably in that order, plus re-sign Iggy and re-sign or S&T Lou W.

I really hate the idea of signing Biedrins. He's has some skills but is he a good fit next to Sam? I really don't think so. I think the two of them would certainly do some nice things on D but our offense would really struggle if a team slowed our fastbreak down.

It isn't even so much that it's Biedrins I don't like as it is the situation and the money he would command.

He is a fine signing if you look at him as a PF for two years and our replacement for Sam after that, if not sooner.  He is like the smarter (basketball wise at least), more consistent and younger version of Sam.  I think he can score 14 ppg and still shoot well over 50% from the field.  Biggest drawback for me is his poor FT%.

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Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Tracking Free Agency

« on: July 05, 2008, 10:23:11 AM »

The Sixers showing interest, at least superficialy, in Biedrins and Maggette (good x 2) and Kristic (not as good), in addition to Smith and Childress.  No mention yet of Okafor, Ben Gordon, Deng or Ellis.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/20080705_New_free-agent_line_forms_for_Sixers_as_Smith_moves_on.html

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Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Our own RFA's

« on: July 05, 2008, 10:05:32 AM »

tk and Dbods:

I don't necessarily disagree with tk on Smith.  The problem I have is spending that amount of money on a guy who is a year away from us knowing if he will grow into his potential.  He is exactly the kind of guy that the current one year rule of college would work for. In fact Ellis and Lou Williams are in the same boat.  If they were not becoming FA's for another year we would have a better idea if:

1.  Smith - See if he can start to tame his game into an efficient package.  Increase the shooting %, improve his rebounding and overall add more substance to his game.

2.  Ellis - Show if he can expand his game to the 3 pt. line and see whether he has any more PG skills.  He has already shown plenty of value as a scorer, but I just want to see more considering his lack of size.

3.  Williams - Perhaps on the opposite end of the spectrum in that he is still on the upswing, but hasn't had a really big year yet, might end up a little underpaid because of it.

Mainly with Smith I feel a little like we are mixing very expensive free agency with a touch of the draft.  With Childress, Iggy, Okafor and Gordon, they are young enough to ensure they will stay productive age-wise through a 5-6 year deal, but I am already pretty sure what I am buying with the large amount of money I am spending.  They all still have room to improve, but that will be in refining their games.  Smith feels like he is still at least a step away and every description of him includes the term "potential."  Potential equals gamble.  I recognize the talent and the fit he would bring and in fact given our available options I would offer him a very big contract and see what happens.  I'm just saying that if Atlanta matches, I may be both disappointed and relieved.

My statements on Ben Gordon and Ellis were meant to compliment Gordon and to simply say that the Ellis mania rumored to be out there may be misplaced, not to say that he is not a very good player.  Ellis does have a lethal mid-range game and absolutely amazing, instictive move in traffic around the basket.  At the same time he is small both height (6'3'' in his dreams) and weight/strength.  I question whether a team making him a go to scorer and starter is getting what they intend to pay for.  He absolutely benefits from a GS system that spreads the floor with numerous deadly offensive players, plays at high scoring pace and bascially gambles on steals as their form of D.  On a team with less offensive firepower surrounding him he will get more defensive attention.  That will require him to vary his offensive arsenal to include a 3 pt shot and show more ball-handling/passing skills becuase he will be double teaned or assigned a top defender more often.  Defensively I really worry about him in a system that actually attempts to play D.  Guys like Iverson and Arenas and Gordon are much phsically stronger than Ellis desoite their lack of height.  Fighting a bigger player for position if they try to take you down town is as much about strength as about heighth.  He overall does not look to me to be as explosively athletic or to have the PG skills of other top undersized scorers like Iverson and Arenas.  I like him as a player and he should make a lot of money, but having 8-10 teams wanting to essentially max him out right now through S&T (adds that sixth year possibly) is too much for him.  In the right system and at the right price you will get a very good player with significant limitations.  To his credit he is excellent at maximizing what he can do and plays very much within himself on O, hence his very efficient shooting %.  But there appears to be a mania for him that I think is overblown.

Ben Gordon would be a much better fit for what the Sixers need.  He can be that guy who takes over a gane offensively and carries your team for a significant stretch of a game.  Whne he is on he is nigh unstoppable, although he is certainly streaky.  Dbods encouraged me ot re-evaluate his reputation as a chucker and it is overblown.  He would provide a high end efficient scorer and three point shooter.  He is not a good defender overall, but could become a good team defender and has good strength in his body despite his lack of size.  He is under-rated by most teams around the league right now because he over-values himself.  He might be worth $10 million a year (in FA the market is inflated) as the average for a 5 year deal.  On the Sixers he would be a great complement to high end defenders, great all-around game types like Iggy and Thad  are or will be at the swing positions.  Split the minutes at 2-3 between those guys, with Iggy at the 3 and Thad at the 4 for a few minutes a game and our lack of scoring is fixed.

Childress at $7 million per is just above what I belive the mid-level is and truthfully I like him for that much more on a finished team that needs him as a lock-down defender and high-end glue player, which is not where we are yet, or to help offset Iggy's loss if we lose him (and look to add a scoring wing in his place with Childress off the bench).  I agree that adding him to Iggy and Thad is a less appealing trio of wings, but could be cured by adding a shooting PG and a shooter at one of the "big man" positions.

On Sheed, I know he is capable of being a great defender and doing all of the little things that don't show up in the box score, but only when he is motivated, which seems to be less often these days.  His declining numbers do bother me and I think he is moving from starter on a CHiP level team towards a Robert Horry type role on a contender.  As a one year rental I fear dealing with Joe Dumars in a trade, I doubt he will be very motivated here, even in a contract year and we do need the rebounding he fails to bring.  I also think he is slowing donw considerably and might not be as effective moving back to PF, especially on a running team.

Marion will be in full contract-drive mode this year and will produce up a storm.  I think his value at the deadline won't be just as an expiring contract and that he will give the team more of a boost where it needs it.   I am also hopimg that a trade for Marion would include a trade of Miller, which is unlikely in the case of Detroit and Sheed.  I think we can preserve more cap flexibility in a Marion trade and have a better deadline asset.  I also think it is time to move Miller and grab a young PG like Marcus Williams to compete with Lou at PG and see what they both have.  I also fear losing more assets in a Sheed trade (i.e. first round picks) and want to preserve our assets to allow us to move up next year in a PG heavy draft and get the guy we want if none of our young PG's looks like the long-term answer.

1030

Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Our own RFA's

« on: July 05, 2008, 12:34:02 AM »

I finally had some time to go and look at the stats for entire group of free agents that might interest me in any way this summer, plus a number of our likely/rumored trade targets and came to the following conclusions from looking at the stats and having watched these players play:

- The top five players in free agency this year are, in order: 1. Elton Brand, 2. Baron Davis, 3.  Andre Iguodala, 4.  Luol Deng, 5. Josh Smith.  Losing Iguodala this summer would be a very bad thing.  He is a very, very good player in a FA class with only one great player in Brand and one sometimes great player in Davis.  The Iguodala, Deng, Smith group are close to each other, but Iggy has the best all-around game already and I don't see that changing.

- I hope Atlanta matches our offer to Josh Smith if we offer him over $65 million for 5 years.  I'm not sure he deserves that much given his less than stellar rebounding and FG shooting.  I think he is more flash than substance and I am not sure he will really get much better than he already is.

- Corey Maggette would be a nice player to have if he were younger.  But he's not.

- Childress is worth a contract in the $7 million dollar per year range.  I like him a lot, but going over $8 million per year is overpaying for his contributions.

- Monta Ellis is over rated and Ben Gordon is under rated (except by himself, then he is over rated).  Ellis puts up his numbers in a system that inflates offense and he is just a little fellow (with an amazing ability to score in traffic).  If I want an undersized scorer then I want one who can hit the three and shoot very efficiently.  I think both are best suited as bench scorers on a more conventional team than GS, unless Ellis shows more PG skills than he is given credit for.

- If we are trading for a fill-in guy with an expiring contract I want Shawn Marion.  Sheed has been on a slow and steady decline for several years, while Marion can simply fill up a stat sheet.  A 5 rpg difference between the two is huge for a team that lacked defensive rebounding last year.  Heck, if he plays well and will take a deal like Jamison did this year I would consider resigning him next summer.  If not, he would have more value at the trade deadline this year than Sheed would.  Wilcox is a reasonable fall back if he comes cheap trade asset wise.

- Lou Williams is a very nice player, but his value will be determined by whether he can play more minutes at PG.  I am not sure what a good contract would be for him right now, certainly no more than I listed for Childress, unless he has a future at the point.  He is also still getting better, making him a tough read value wise.

- Emeka Okafor is one player I don't want.  He is not an efficient player and has pretty much topped his game out already.  At the salary he will likely command I don't want to even look at him.

Overall, if we come out of this summer with Marion and one of Ben Gordon, Childress, or Magette (give him more than the MLE, but limit it to 4 years due to his age) and don't give up too much in the way of assets and future cap flexibility, plus re-sign our own RFA's, I will be very happy.

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Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Tracking Free Agency

« on: July 04, 2008, 10:42:05 AM »

According to New York Newsday - as many as NINE teams have inquired about a sign & trade for Monta Ellis...teams mentioned include the Cavs, Heat, and of course the Knicks.

With all that work to do, I'm not sure Chris Mullin will have the time to pay attention to Iguodala.  He's never struck me as playing with an overly full deck

I could easily see GS getting themselves into a pickle contract wise this summer.  They did not expect to have the cap room they have (for now) and are seemingly shooting from the hip.  They are scaring everyone else, but in the end it might be possible to take advantage of them.

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Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Plan B: Shooting Guard

« on: July 04, 2008, 10:39:20 AM »

I'm pro childress, always been a big fan, but he's a sixth man, a very good sixth man, but a sixth man in my opinion.

Absolutely, he is a sixth man and a very good one.  If we do go after Maggette or Childress and keep Iggy and Thad, at some point our signee will have to be a bench player.  Childress is suited for it and has had no problem with it in the past.  Maggette does not like coming off the bench and has thrown hissy fits about it in the past. 

This team is going to be built around players who can defend at a high level and run.  At some point we will need a dominant scorer like Pierce was for the C's this year and like Billups was for the Pistons when they won the title, in essence a guy who can get his points when they are needed even when you try to stop him.  Neither Childress or Maggette fits that description as a scorer, but Childress fits the description of the long, athletic defender type. Maggette can score better than Childress, but he's not doing that in the later rounds of the playoffs against the better defensive teams.  Thad and Speights are our best hope of developing a dominant scorer internally.  Otherwise, we grab one a little farther down the road.

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Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Plan B: Shooting Guard

« on: July 04, 2008, 10:18:34 AM »

Signing Maggette or Childress in addition to getting a rental on Marion or Sheed is only a bad thing if you sign them to an untradeable contract.  Otherwise they remain assets that can be used to acquire the one franchise level player this team needs either by being traded themselvs or freeing up someone like Iggy to be traded.  If either one can be signed to an appropriate value contract (i.e. not a bargain or discount, not an overpayment), and possibly use the deckining salary method that the Bulls used on Nocioni and Hinrich to some extent, they would not clog our cap or hinder future moves. 

Of course I don't think we should overpay for anyone, including our own RFA's.  Bad contracts/bad players clog the cap, useful players with deent contracts do not.  I am OK with grabbing one more core player, who is a reasonably movable piece, and one rental player this summer.

I would be most interested in how the rental deal is structured to preserve or expand our future cap space.  As far as moving Miller goes, I think it is time to do it and start searching for his replacement.

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Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Our own RFA's

« on: July 04, 2008, 10:07:27 AM »

I find Marion more appealing in a trade as a one year stop gap/expiring contract as long as we don't use any young, useful assets to grab him.  I don't have the link, but somewhere in a HoopsHype blurb I read that D Wade wants to make sure he stays at SG, hence the Heat would seem to need a PG.  We would still have Marion's expiring contract for future cap space/deadline deals.  Bring in a young PG (Marcus Williams?) to compete with Lou this year at the 1, sign Childress or Maggette and re-evaluate the team's needs at the deadline or next summer as Thad, Speights, Lou, Jason Smith and Carney continue to grow this year.  

I think Marion would have been very high on the GS radar if he had been available as a FA.  As a Sixer I don't want to commit to him long-term.

As far as Jamison goes, how exactly did we make a big push.  He verbally agreed on an extension with Washingtom before FA began.  Those reports I have heard essentially accuse us of tampering and I think they are beyond bogus.  That said, I am sure we would have had some inquiry into Jamison if he became available.  The likelihhod is that he would want less years and money then MArion would have sought as a FA.

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Philadelphia 76ers / Re: Tracking Free Agency

« on: July 04, 2008, 09:34:09 AM »

Arenas heading back to Washington and leaving a little money on the table for other players to be signed:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3473164