Author Topic: Roy Halladay a Phillie  (Read 7083 times)

jemagee

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Re: Roy Halladay a Phillie
« Reply #15 on: December 16, 2009, 12:07:36 PM »
And aren't 2 of them in the top 25 (or 50) of ranked prospects in baseball...

A lot of people are 'dismissing' the value of the trade because they're just 'prospects'

Ryan Howard was a prospect - he was a 5th round pick that no one thought could do well in baseball cause of the hole in his swing
Utley
Rollins
Hamels
Ruiz

They were all prospects too...Victorino I believe was a prospect who went through Rule V twice (padres and dodgers) and the phils even tried to give him back to the dodgers but they didn't want to pay the 25 or 50K to get him back.

This isn't a trade that makes the phillies 'better' next year - not appreciably - i mean cliff lee was 5-0 in the playoffs - how much better will halladay do in the playoffs, regular season maybe an extra win or two but i'm sure lee pitching for contract would have been fine - so i see no 'vast' improvement in the phillies next year like some heads on ESPN are spinning.

The phillies have worries, Werth is a free agent soon and with a fixed budget and a weak market next off season they probably can't keep him and ibanez is getting old - be nice to have two major league ready outfielders with controlled costs to slot in there wouldn't it?  Shame we gave one away.

Moyer won't pitcher forever, hell he might not pitch next season, Happ may not be what he was this year (and I'm sure Hamels will be 'better' though not really, just more lucky) and the phils just gave away their best pitching prospect.

Rollins is getting older, Polanco is a stop gap and infield prospects in the phils system are non existent.

If you aren't the yankees or redsox (basically) - you can't just say 'they're prospects, so what' prospects are how you build a winner.

Additionally - how is it the phillies got rogered in two directions when they should have been in the drivers seat in both trades

A.  The Blue Jays HAD to trade Halladay and were following the stupid 'get him out of the league' mandate meaning they'd force the yankees and red sox to over pay even if their prospect package was better than the 3 they got from the phils.

B.  The phillies didn't have to trade Lee - 9 million dollars isn't grossly over the 140 mil 'fixed' budget, it's less than 7%.  If he turns around and pays fernando rodney or some other similar over rated reliever for more than one season Amaro should be hoisted on a pitard.

I think the phillies played both sides of these deals terribly, depleted a strong but top heavy farm system and made a short sighted move to get an ace (yay) but now next off season they'll have to find at least one outfielder.

Offline Derek Bodner

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Re: Roy Halladay a Phillie
« Reply #16 on: December 16, 2009, 02:12:18 PM »
Quote
And aren't 2 of them in the top 25 (or 50) of ranked prospects in baseball...

None of them were in last years top 100 prospects by baseball america.  Domonic Brown was the top rated Phillie at #48.

Quote
A lot of people are 'dismissing' the value of the trade because they're just 'prospects'

Ryan Howard was a prospect - he was a 5th round pick that no one thought could do well in baseball cause of the hole in his swing
Utley
Rollins
Hamels
Ruiz

So were Marlon Byrd, Baisley, Marlon Anderson, and Bobby Estalella, all of whom cracked BA's top 100 at some point.

Taylor was clearly the lesser of the two outfielders, and they kept Brown.  Drabek was pitching well, but he wasn't even on the Phillies radar before last year, and he's still a player who's never pitched above AA and has had major arm surgery.

I hated the Blanton trade, and I ended up being wrong.  I hate trading away top prospects for middling players.  But this isn't a middle reliever was just acquired.  This is Roy Halladay.  He's legitimately one of the top 2-3 best pitchers in baseball.  If he's effective for the duration of his contract, i have no doubt he'll provide more value to the Phillies than Drabek and Taylor.

Quote
This isn't a trade that makes the phillies 'better' next year - not appreciably - i mean cliff lee was 5-0 in the playoffs - how much better will halladay do in the playoffs, regular season maybe an extra win or two but i'm sure lee pitching for contract would have been fine - so i see no 'vast' improvement in the phillies next year like some heads on ESPN are spinning.

Yes, this does improve the Phillies better.  Drastically.  You can look at pretty much any metric (ERA+, WHIP, oba, gb rate, k rate, so/bb), and Halladay is consistently better every year than Cliff Lee.  Might he pitch better than Lee did in last years playoffs?  That's certainly not a given.  But it's also no given that Cliff Lee repeats last years performance.  It really has no relevance on whether the Phillies are better prepared for next year than they were a week ago.

The Blue Jays had leverage.  They had another team, the Angels, in serious pursuit of Halladay.  That's all it takes.  If the Phillies wanted Halladay, they HAD to make a better deal than the Angels.  That puts the Blue Jays in the drivers seat.

I agree with you on the Lee trade being bad. 

They would have had to have given up on one of their outfielders next year to re-sign Lee as well.  They're in the same boat.  I think locking up one of them long term is key to the team contending in the next 3-4 years.  If the price of that is Jayson Werth (who's likely to be overpaid and 32 after next year), that's the price.

jemagee

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Re: Roy Halladay a Phillie
« Reply #17 on: December 16, 2009, 02:14:56 PM »
I'm not sure how much better Halladay is than Lee - that's debateable but it's a swap - one for the other - one guy starts 30-35 games or the other guys starts 30-35 games...the phillies didn't just 'add' halladay for next year - if they did - i'd be thrilled - they added halladay and lost cliff lee who was pretty good last year too...plus great offense behind him.

The phillies should trade lee to anaheim in my opinion

Offline rswknight

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Re: Roy Halladay a Phillie
« Reply #18 on: December 18, 2009, 06:28:11 PM »
You should check out a really great post on Reclinergm.com:

http://www.reclinergm.com/head-to-head-comparison-roy-halladay-vs-cliff-lee/

The fact that Halladay has outperformed Lee over the past 2 years while pitching the equivalent of a full season against the 07 World Champs, 08 AL champs & 09 World Champs is very impressive.

Lee is great, but Halladay is a notch above that

Offline Derek Bodner

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Re: Roy Halladay a Phillie
« Reply #19 on: December 18, 2009, 07:07:40 PM »
welcome, rswk.  nice to have you on board.