Author Topic: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?  (Read 4733 times)

Offline Reality

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Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« on: October 04, 2009, 04:38:08 PM »
One of the best playoff runs ever including the championship series.
vs 10-10 this year with bloated era continuing thru the end of the reg season.


jemagee

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Re: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2009, 04:48:44 PM »
I'm quite comfortable with Cole Hamels pitching, even with his 10-11 record...5 potential wins were blown by a shaky bullpen this year...(4 losses were 'saved' by the offense).

There's not really anything that indicates he's a worse pitcher than last year...his K rate is slightly higher, his walk rate is slightliy lower, his HR rate is the same...his FIP is the same as last year, he's even gettinga  higher percentage of GB versus last year.

What is MUCH higher this year is his BABIP (325 this year versus 270) - I have no idea if 325 is 'high' versus league average or 270 is low for leage average. 

I'm more comfortable with Hamels starting in the playoffs than anyone else on the roster who started this season on the roster.

Offline DuckyNinja

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Re: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2009, 05:17:02 PM »
It depends what pitches you throw, but .310 or so is average.  We really can't put a rotation I'd feel comfortable with on the mound, but it's gotta be Hamels pitching g1.  Nobody's pitched well enough to establish themselves as ahead in the pecking order.

jemagee

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Re: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2009, 06:01:31 PM »
It depends what pitches you throw, but .310 or so is average.  We really can't put a rotation I'd feel comfortable with on the mound, but it's gotta be Hamels pitching g1.  Nobody's pitched well enough to establish themselves as ahead in the pecking order.

An Argument could be made for Cliff Lee I think - but those two should pitch game one and game two - I wonder how rockies hitters do versus lefties compared to righties this year...not sure who is going to go game 3 - i mean who is healthy?  Happ or Blanton I assume...what's up with Pedro?

Offline Skates

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Re: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2009, 03:04:18 PM »
The Rockies do not hit lefties very well, so in any case you should have Lee, Hamels and Happ pitching against them.  Then hope the Dodgers beat the Cards.  In a playoff series I do not want to face St. Louis with all of their rh boppers and that 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.

jemagee

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Re: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2009, 03:06:32 PM »
The Rockies do not hit lefties very well, so in any case you should have Lee, Hamels and Happ pitching against them.  Then hope the Dodgers beat the Cards.  In a playoff series I do not want to face St. Louis with all of their rh boppers and that 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.

The Cardinals will take out the Dodgers, Joe Torre shreds another bulilpen but will be praised for winning the division even though they almost gave up what was the biggest earliest 'lock' i've seen in a long while...

I wonder how the rockies hitters do against specific pitches...hmmm


Offline RickyPryor

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Re: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2009, 03:28:58 PM »
Right now Hamels is our most consistent pitcher.  Forget the first 1/2 - 2/3rds of the season.  He looks dead-on.

Cliff looks good 70% of the time.

And Cliff won't be a head case at #2.  Whereas..........

Offline Reality

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Re: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2009, 07:43:31 PM »
I know nothing of Happ, just looking at his stats that's why i defer to you Phillys.
12-4 and he is lefty?

Why no votes for Happ?

Offline rickortreat

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Re: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2009, 10:29:57 PM »
Personally I'd go with Happ, but that probably isn't the smart move, his being so young and inexperienced.  Lee has been up and down and so has Hammels, but I think that Hammels would be upset if he didn't get the nod, so I'd go with him.

I'm much more worried about the bullpen than the starters.  Also concerned that Moyer is out.

Also I'm scared of the Cardinals, but I think they're scared of Phila's bats.

jemagee

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Re: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2009, 09:51:24 AM »
Lee has been much more consistent for much longer than Happ has been...Happ is a pleasant surprise this year but totally unexpected...and Lee has been better than people like to think he was (even in Cleveland) but that's a record/ERA thing.

Check out Lee's run support this year in cleveland - it was pathetic.

Use Fangraphs and look at the things that matter a bit more than ERA and W-L record...Lee and Hamels are far and away the two best pitchers on the phillies staff.


Offline Derek Bodner

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Re: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2009, 11:31:08 AM »
I'm not in complete agreement that things like babip are completely random and a horrible indicator.  a pitcher getting too much of the plate and lacking pinpoint control (or not getting the speed variance between his fastball and changeup) can actually lower his walk rate and increase his babip because he's getting too much of the plate.  I'm not saying that's the case with hamels (in fact, I'd argue it isn't, because usually your HR rate would increase in that scenario, and k rate usually drop), but I don't agree with the notion that you can throw out ERA, or that babip is completely random.  Like all stats, babip needs to be taken in with other stats to formulate an informed opinion on whether it's meaningful, just like era.

But, opponents are only hitting .246 against Cole post-allstar break, and .238 in September.  He's rounding into form nicely, whether that's due to the law of averages catching up with babip or because he's command has returned is cause for another argument.

W/L I'll agree is completely meaningless. 

jemagee

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Re: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2009, 11:34:43 AM »
There are 'better' ERA's though than 'just the ERA' - you can use the FIP ERA (where Hamels looks much better)

the thing I most meant to point out about BABIP is that the 2009 versus 2008 numbers are really the only number that is 'worse' for Hamels whereas most are better.

I figure his 'average' for that number isn't as high as this year or as low as last year that it's somewhere in in the middle.

I just don't look at the phillies rotation and say "Hamels" makes me uncomfortable - Cupcakes makes me twitch, Happ scares me because I still am scarred by Kyle Kendricks 'unexpected' rookie year.

And right now, if they needed a fifth pitcher it's Pedro and is he even healthy?

I guess my point is that Hamels/Lee are far and away the two best options on the phillies pitching staff right now.

Offline rickortreat

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Re: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2009, 01:16:10 PM »
Manuel now says that Lee will get the starting nod for the opener. Part of that is that Hammels wouldn't have enough rest.

Apparently Happ and Blanton will be in the bullpen, which tells you how concerned Charlie is about that situation. Which one of those would you go with in game 3?

jemagee

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Re: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2009, 01:17:14 PM »
Which ever is a better ground ball pitcher (game 3 in colorado ;)

Offline Derek Bodner

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Re: Are you comfortable with Hammels starting?
« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2009, 01:24:07 PM »
Hamels!  one m

Sorry, that was driving me nuts.

Weather conditions for game 3 could be bad.