I think from your comments that you are all beginning to realize the match-up problems Orlando creates. You are all talking about the Lakers changing their line-up to deal with the Magic scorers. Odom is as good a scorer as Bynum anyway, but he's not an outside defender, either.
FYI rick, I understand the game better than most, the difference between your take and mind is I see both sides of the argument/matchup, not just the one that favors the team playing the Lakers. I'm not starting to realize anything, I've known plenty about every possible matchup for the Lakers since the playoffs began. Odom vs Lewis actually favors the Lakers. Odom is so much more versatile than Lewis and will kill him on the boards. Odom has the ability to guard post players and perimeter players, he's no defensive stopper but he's not cannon fodder either.
Let's address this live with and die by the three nonsense first:
The Magic have shot close to 38% from the 3 point line all season, and .367 in the playoffs. 4 of 10 is 40%. 3.67 x 3 = 11.1. If the Lakers shoot 50% from the field 5 x 2 = 10. See the problem? The Lakers haven't even shot that well in the playoffs. They have only managed .467 from the 2.The idea that the Lakers can suddenly change their habits overnight and become a good defensive team against three point shooters is something I consider wishful thinking. It's not just Hedo and Lewis either, Alston shoots the three, Petrius shoots the three, JJ Reddick shoots the 3. You can't cover them all or expect them all to suddenly go cold against a team that doesn't cover the outside well. The Magic don't just live by the three, they thrive on it!
What you fail to realize rick is that scoring in the paint vs the 3 point line isn't just about the points. There are so many other factors that I think I'd be wasting my time trying to explain it to you if your take is as simplistic as: "The Magic have shot close to 38% from the 3 point line all season, and .367 in the playoffs. 4 of 10 is 40%. 3.67 x 3 = 11.1. If the Lakers shoot 50% from the field 5 x 2 = 10. See the problem?" If you're a Magic fan than that comment looks great but if you understand basketball you will udnerstand why scoring in the paint is a superior tactic because it causes a lot more problems for a defense and the personnel.
Further, if the Lakers focus on the outside that gives Howard the room to operate. Throughout the playoffs Howard has been hitting his free throws, so fouling him won't work, and they can't afford to loose Gasol to foul trouble. Will they use Bynum, Powell and Mbenga to try to defend Howard? It will be interesting to see how the Lakers defend against a team that makes it so hard to cover all their players. And still manage to score enough to win.
I guess you haven't seen much of the Lakers with your "hate" colored glasses. The Lakers have faced the same prolem for nearly a decade. The Lakers are used to playing against a dominant inside presence, in fact a SUPERIOR inside presence. The Lakers have thrown different looks at Tim Duncan to keep him off balance and I think the Lakers will do the same thing to Dwight.
The Lakers need to get Howard into foul trouble, but Howard has learned how to play smart and smile when he gets a foul called on him no matter how outrageous. Th Lakers don't have a pest like Varajo to annoy him either. I don't think that Kobe will get the calls driving the lane like LeBron did. If Dwight is guarding the lane, Kobe will have to stop and pop. That is after Kobe gets by Petrius or whoever is the first defender. If Kobe can get by Petrius he can set up Gasol since Howard will have to divide his attention. There's only one ball, so Howard will try to stop Gasol on the inside, and let Lewis cover him on the outside. If Gasol can score consistently from outside, that will be a negative for the Magic, but whether it will be enough to secure the series is another matter.
Howard fouled out of 3 games in a 6 game series, he has learned NOTHING. Howard should have fouled out of game 6 but the refs really gave Howard the royal treatment and let him get away with a ton of fouls.
Stop and pop is Kobe's game, that's why I think he's better sutied to face the Magic than LeBron was in their series. If Dwight has to help on Kobe then Gasol is going to be just fine making catches in the paint or at the rim when Dwight is forced to leave him. If Gasol faces up then I think Howard is going to have to conceed the 12 to 15 foot jumper to Gasol. Howard cannot risk getting to close to Gasol because Gasol will go by him and Dwight will get into foul trouble trying to strip Gasol.
A 6'7" Ariza on Hedo is not going to work, IMO. You're comparing a guy who averages less than 10 against a 6'10" player that shoots the 3 and drives to the hole and puts up 15 and 5 assists. If you have Gasol and Odom up front on Howard and Lewis, who's going to keep Hedo in check? Ariza can't offset Hedo's scoring with his own. The Magic are flexible with their attack too, whichever match-up favors them is the one their going to go at. Hedo is the one you have to keep in check since he is the Magic's leading assist man. Odom can't stay with him, IMO, he's an inside defender. Who else do the Lakers have that won't be a liability on the other end of the floor?
Hedo is a much easier person to guard than Carmelo. Melo does EVERYTHING better than Hedo and Ariza should have no more trouble guarding him than Melo, in fact it should be easier on Ariza this series. Ariza is quicker than Hedo and will cause Hedo problems when he tries to put the ball on the floor. Ariza doesn't have to outscore Hedo, that has never been his role on the Lakers. Ariza will bring Hedo's scoring down his level rather than trying to raise his scoring to Hedo's level.
We all agree that Kobe is going to get his, but he is going to have to score 35+ to overcome the Magic scoring. And Gasol will have to pump in over 20 per game as well.
Odom is going to have an easier time scoring on the Magic because there is no defender to take him out of the game. He had a hard time wtih the stronger/quicker Artest/Scola, the Magic have nobody like that to guard Odom. The Magic are going to have to rely on Howard to protect the basket from Odom so NOW you're asking Howard to deal with Gasol, Kobe, AND Odom. It will be tough because IMO Lewis will not be able to defend Odom.
On the plus side the ESPN genius crew is going 9-1 in favor of the Lakers.
Petrius outscored the entire Cavalier bench in several games during their series. We're talking about the Lakers having to guard Howard, Lewis and Hedo, you add Petrius into that mix and the Lakers are going to be stretched thin, meaning no double-teams on Howard. Everyone trying to stop Orlando this season had the same problems.
I think the Lakers will have trouble with Petrius as well unless Kobe or Ariza are guarding him. The other guy they can try on him would be Sasha, who's just a big a pest as Varajo, and see if they can take him out of his game. That being said I think Petrius will be a bigger factor than Hedo.
I'm not as familiar with the Laker bench, but looking at the boxscores it doesn't seem like any of them are a real threat, and none of them play extended minutes. Will any of them suddenly become significant contributors in the finals!?
None of them need to be a significant threat, that is why the are the "bench". The Lakers are not a team that is deficient in scoring, they don't need a big punch off the bench. In the last couple of game the bench has been giving them exactly what they need. The bigger contribution the bench brings is defense since there is typically one starter with the bench on the floor all the time that takes up the scoring load. Using your basic understanding of basketball, 3 guys scoring 4 points is better than one guy scoring 10.
Correct me on this, if I'm wrong, but the Lakers depend on Gasol and Kobe for their scoring and the others occasionally pump in the remainder. That means the Magic need to slow down one of them to get the edge, probably Gasol. When Orlando has the ball, Howard gets the lions share of the touches, and he is usually open, because his man if forced to help on the penetrator. If he does get covered, there isn't a better team in the league at finding the open man and there all threats to shoot. If you've watched them, the Magic work the ball moving it around and from side to side. The Lakers pressure defense did win a few games for them, but I can't see them having the same effect on a team that spreads the floor so well. More likely the Magic will find an open man in space and bomb away.
The Lakers do depend on those two but it not just for points. Gasol and Kobe setup the offense for easy scores, when that doesn't materialize the Lakers just run the triangle. When all else fails they just give the ball to Kobe, that is a luxury the Magic do not have, not in Hedo, not in Dwight, and not in Lewis.
The one thing that has been consistent is that everyone has discounted the Magic explaining away what they do and assuming that they won't continue to shoot the way they have all season. My conclusion is that they are better than everyone thinks and few realize just how good they are. It's always that way with the new up and coming team.
The reason everyone has discounted the Magic is because everyone HAS SEEN THIS BEFORE and it has failed. Suns, Dallas, Cavs, Nets, and Nuggets. Perimeter oriented teams fail in the playoffs. Dwight has helped them a great deal in making them succesfull, his ability to defend the rim has saved the Magic on more than one occasion. Dwight is why the Magic have gotten further than everyone expected, that and the unexplicable collapse of the Cavs role players. A healthy Celtics team would have destroyed the Magic, the can thank the injury bug for their Finals appearance IMO.
The one thing in the Lakers favor is that the Celtics were tougher on them than Cleveland, because Boston was stronger inside, as the Lakers are. Once Garnett and Powe went down Orlando had an easier time of it and won the series. If the Lakers can play big, they may bother Howard enough and keep Lewis and Hedo from driving. That will keep them in the series if the Magic aren't shooting well from the outside. I figure the Magic may have one off game, and Kobe will have one or two spectacular games. That would give the Lakers 3 wins and Orlando 4.
Have you figured Odom playing well? How about Bynum? How about the bench? I do think the Magic will keep up their 3 point shooting pace and it will cause the Lakers many problems. Will those problems be enough to offset the superior inside/outside offense of the Lakers? I really don't know but I think PJ will figure out which poison to take from the Magic quarter by quarter and game by game. This is very much the same issues they have dealt with in Tim Duncan. Granted the Spurs never head the 3-pt threats that the Magic do so that's why I'm not sure what's going to happen.
I figure a split in LA and they'll get one in Orlando of the three. They'll head back to the LA up 3-2, and I don't think LA can win two in a row against this team. Kobe will have to be spectacular in a game where Orlando is hitting well from the outside and just might edge them out to win the extra game they need to win the series.
Still thinking Orlando in 6 or 7.
I think it will probably pan out as you say but the Lakers will be the one's winning game 7.
Officiating may make the difference in this series, and I'm not talking about them playing favorites, but just calling the game straight. It will be Kobe vs. Howard at the line and that favors the Lakers. The fewer fouls called on Kobe's defender, the better it will be for the Magic. If they can just let Kobe score and not foul him for that extra point they should win. Petrius did a very good job on LeBron and didn't foul out once. Howard got better and better as the series went on, and hasn't gotten into trouble with the refs since his technical was rescinded. If he can stay on the floor for most of the game, I think it will be too much for even the Lakers to deal with.
The only team that has defended Kobe without fouling have been the Rockets but the Magic have nobody like Shane or Artest, nor do they have the defensive decipline of the Rockets, the Magic just rely on Howard erasing mistakes and that got Howard to the bench all too often in the playoffs.
P.S. I really do enjoy your take even if I disagree or think it's driven by Lakers hate. Keep it up rick.
