Put away the Puppets, let the real contest begin!

[rickortreat]

Maybe Nike is unhappy with the match-up but real basketball fans should be very happy with an Orlando vs. LA series. I think it's very clear from the conference finals that we have the two best teams from their respective conferences.

I didn't know, until now, that the format for the series is 2-3-2, which I really don't like.  I supposed it shouldn't matter, since these teams have both demonstrated the ability to win in a hostile arena, but I think it puts undue pressure on the team with 3 home games to win 3 in a row.  Put it this way: I like the 2-2-1-1-1 format and think it's fairer to the team with only 3 home games. I don't understand why the finals should be any different from the previous rounds. It should be consistent throughout the playoffs either one way or the other.  On the other hand, I don't usually travel back and forth between the two coasts and I don't know if the time difference affects a players performance, traveling fewer times means less adjustment, it that matters.

Since the next series doesn't start until Thursday, both teams should be well-rested. I don't think that LA's extra day off is significant at all, since Orlando will have 4 full days off to get to LA and get ready for the game to begin. 

The poll on ESPN had the Lakers favored to win it all, and early prognosticators seem to favor LA as well.  The poll is 65% for LA. It's too early to tell how many of the sports writers will choose the Lakers, but that doesn't matter much. They were unanimously for Cleveland in their series with Orlando, and we all know how that turned out for them!

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and no one I know of can see the future.  Clevaland vs. LA might have been a dream match-up for Nike, but IMO this is a nightmare match-up for the Lakers.

There's plenty of time to get into the reasons between now and Thursday, but I'm picking Orlando to take the series. I can't decide how many games it will take, however, as the format may make a difference. If it was the standard format, I would say Orlando in 6, but the 2-3-2 may mean it will take 7 games to decide the outcome.

[westkoast]

   Nightmare matchup?  Really?  You are getting more and more ridiculous as the days go on.  I've tried my best to stay away from doing what WOW is doing, as far as the Laker hate causes blindness thing, but I am starting to understand why he continues to harp on it.  Your bias really kills your ability to  break this matchup down well.  You know the game well and you are good at making points but the fact that you are so bias keeps you from really breaking down the Lakers.  You just ignore anything good they do and explode what they don't do well up exponentially.    I agree 1000% that this Orlando team is not only the team all us NBA fans should want but also the much stronger of the Cavs/Magic.   The problem is Rick is had Lebron been going to the finals you would say the exact same thing about them you are saying about Orlando now in terms of them being a 'nightmare matchup' " The Lakers are done' and you  sweep under the rug anything they do while over exaggerating the team facing them like you are doing here.

I think this will be a great match up and exciting, you want to pretend like the Lakers are not a problem for Orlando, that's fine.  Let's really talk about some basketball...

Positives:

- The guy who did a lot of damage to the Cavs was Rashard Lewis.  He is a athletic 6'10 guy who can shoot the 3 and can take you off the dribble.  The Cavs had NO answer for him.  The Lakers however have their own athletic 6'11 guy who has been very effective from 3 in the playoffs, can take you off the dribble, and is more athletic than Lewis is.

- Dwight Howard is going to abuse Pau Gasol in the post much like he did to the front line of the just about every team they've faced so far.  The problem for Orlando is if Pau Gasol gets the ball anywhere near the glass Kobe, Odom, or Bynum are going to have a open path to get a close range shot, maybe even a put back.  Dwight Howard is going to have his hands full with Pau Gasol on the offensive end and he is not going to be able to roam as that second help defender quite as much.  Pau's jumper is also effective enough to pull Howard out of the lane a step or 2.  That can make all the difference to a guard.

- Like Lebron James the Orlando Magic are going to get roasted by Kobe Bryant.  That is a given.   That is also not debatable.  They don't have anyone who can lock him down.  Also, their best perimeter defender really shouldn't guard Kobe.  That would leave a SF like Ariza/Odom/Walton covered by a smaller guy.

- Ariza can and will do a decent job on Hedo.  I assume that is who will end up guarding him.  Hedo's game is nowhere near Melo's in terms of offensive and I think Ariza can really make a difference, again, on the defensive end.

- Stan Van Gundy vs Phil Jackson....do I really need to elaborate on this?  Does anyone other than Rick think that Stan Van Gundy is going to coach circles around Jackson?  This comes back to Joe's point about the Denver series.

- This Laker team has played some very rough, physical teams.  Orlando has not.  While I don't expect the Lakers to push around Orlando because they themselves are not a 'physical' team I do think that it's much more to the Lakers favor to play another team who is not physical.

Negatives:

- Lakers are poor at closing out shooters on the 3 point line.  The Orlando Magic can get HOT from 3.  This is going to be a problem for the Lakers if they don't hustle to close out the 3.  Based on historical information, they won't LOL.

- Alston vs Fisher:  Not that he is a tougher cover than Billups or Williams he is too quick for Derek Fisher.  Alston is also a lot more crafty and basketball savvy than Farmar.  I also don't know if I have the confidence in Brown to be a solid defender against Alston.  The Magic back up pg is EC D-Fish so Im not going to bring him up LOL.

- Dwight Howard is going to abuse Pau Gasol in the post.  Or Bynum.  Or Mbenga.  Or the entire LAPD.  Anyone the Lakers decide to put on him.

- The Lakers help in the post entirely too much.  I don't know if that's by design or players just do it (im thinking the later).  This gives shooters a lot of space and contributes to the Lakers close out problem.  Orlando should be able to exploit this.

[rickortreat]

I don't know where you get all these assumptions from, but you have no right to assume what my position is on anything, unless I state it!

For the record, had Cleveland won, I would have picked LA to win the series, within 5 or 6 games.  The Lakers height and rebounding and inside scoring would overwhelm Cleveland's bigs and nothing LeBron could do would make any significant difference.

Why is this a nightmare match-up?  Your own post makes it very clear why, but allow me to expand:

If the Lakers go with Gasol and Bynum inside, on the offensive end they will have a size and strength advantage against Lewis.  But Lewis will be impossible for either LA big to defend on the other end.  I cannot see Bynum or Gasol following Lewis out to the 3 point line and being able to stay in front of him, and if they do, that lane will open up for Hedo and Alston like your freeways at 4 AM.  If they decide to go with Odom instead, that would be a better match-up but would again open up the lane.

The Lakers two primary scorers are a handful for any team and Gasol has enough ability to manage to score as long as he can get enough space against Howard, which I suspect he will, but probably not enough to offset what Dwight will do on the other end of the floor. One thing I'm pretty sure about is that Howard will not move outside the lane to stay with Gasol, instead they will cover him with Lewis or Turk, enabling Howard to guard the lane.

No-one can stop Kobe, all they can do is make him work. If anyone can do a credible job defending him, it will be Petrius, who did a phenomenal job of staying in front of the equally unstoppable LeBron James.  Except that Kobe is lighter and shorter so if anything Michael will have an easier time. Regardless Kobe will get his.

It's the rest of the Lakers that I have doubts about. They haven't exactly distinguished themselves in the playoffs, and only showed up in force in the Denver series. The thing is, Orlando's players are better than Denvers and even if they do show up I doubt they will get the better of the Magic players.  Fisher will be over matched by Alston and unable to keep Alston out of the lane.  This is the key match-up. If Alston can get inside at will, Orlando's inside-out offense will be unstoppable. The Lakers tend to pack it inside anyway, and Orlando couldn't care less, as they will happily shoot three's all day long and make to many of them for LA to stay close. This is a weakness most teams have, which is why Orlando is so hard to beat and why, IMO they beat the Lakers in both their meetings this season.  Obviously Phil will try to coach his players to stay with their men on the outside, but whether they can or not is another story.  Even if they do, are they quick enough to stay with Hedo, Lewis or Petrius when they see an open lane to the hole?

Statistically Orlando was a superior defensive team all season, they run back on defense immediately after a shot, meaning that LA won't get the easy buckets they got which made them the NBA's most lethal offensive team. Making LA work hard for their shots in  the half court should be all that it takes for Orlando to stay with the them, and their scoring will put exceptional pressure on the Lakers to even stay with them.

Likewise, I think Orlando's deep bench will offset the play from the Lakers.  Sasha can't play and neither can Walton.  Orlando has players to offset what Brown, Odom/Bynum and Farmar can bring.

With all of that, it's going to take 6 or 7 games to determine who wins. It's not like Orlando will have an easy time in this series.  The Lakers have an edge in experience and they are every bit as hungry for a Championship. But Orlando has slugged it out with three quality teams in the East and outplayed each of them, even destroying Boston on their own home-court. They can win close games with a three and have done so on numerous occasions, making pressure shot after shot in the final few minutes. I haven't seen to many close contests between LA and anyone, since most teams can't even stay with them.  But in the games where Denver was with them at the end, my impression was that neither of those teams could perform as well as Cleveland and Orlando did in their series. I think Orlando can make the games close at the very least and we'll have to see if LA can stand up to the pressure.  Bryant lives for games like that, but so do Hedo and Lewis.

Nothing is more discouraging than playing a good game and finding yourself down, because the other team keeps making long-range shots. That is Orlando's game, and trying to play catch-up is not something the Lakers are used to.  Scoring two every time and giving up three on the other end is not going to get it done.  The Lakers are going to have to defend the Magic to win.  Defense is hard work and the Lakers only work hard on a sporadic basis. Orlando will force them to work that hard for 48 minutes.

Another prediction, this is going to be one of the best finals match-ups in years, better than last season's with the Lakers and Celtics, light years better than the Miami/Dallas series. Much more competitive than San Antonio's thrashing of the Cavaliers.

[westkoast]

Again with the massive pumping of the non-Laker team and briefly mentioning (aka sweeping under the rug) what they do well.

This is a nightmare matchup for the Lakers but not a nightmare matchup for the Magic?  This is what I am pointing out.  While I agree this is going to be a tough match up (as I brought up points stating that in my post) you cannot do the reverse.

You don't see Gasol or Bynum chasing Lewis ( and they most likely wouldn't guard him to begin with but let's entertain your point) to the 3 but fail to mention the reverse of what would happen in the post?  You are out of your mind if you think having anyone but Dwight Howard on Gasol is a good idea.  The down playing of Gasol's ability, almost like he's some c-list player, is further proving my point.  Statistically speaking a Gasol hook or move towards the rim is effective in a series than a 3 point shot.  You can argue it's an extra point all you want but over a 6 or 7 game stretch the closer shot wins that battle.  We could also bring up Lamar Odom, who is a nightmare cover for anyone on this Orlando squad, but I'll save that for later.

Kobe has a much better jumper than Lebron does and is equally as fast.  Petrius is not Ron Artest strong himself so I think the need for Lebron-strength is over stated.  Again, down playing a Laker strength and puffing up Orlando.  Kobe is and has been the better offensive weapon than Lebron James for quite a few years now.  Logically why would P have an easier time with Kobe when he's a better scorer?  This is why Laker hater causes blindness.  WOW I am starting to see the light.  This makes no sense at all Rick.  Sorry.

Walton (who has been deep in the playoffs and to the finals, also has high basketball IQ), Odom (who is just as talented as any Magic player and has been to the finals), and Farmar (who also has been to the finals) are scrubs on the bench but you think Lee (rookie), Gortat (seriously Rick?), and Tony Battie are monsters?  Laker hate causes blindness.

I can't wait for next week.  We will see who is right or wrong on Thursday I guess.

What is everyone elses take?  We all can chime in on this one!

[Laker Fan]

Rick I believe you are the one that said Denver was the best team in the West not too long ago, 'nuff said, and while I don't do the archive search thingy to make this point so correct me if I am wrong, but I don't seem to remember too much from you about Orlando being the superior team to Cleveland until the Magic stole game 1. Again, If I am wrong here I apologize, but my point remains, you are starting to believe your own press about what a brilliant basketball mind you have, the problem is, that press comes from you and the ever delusional Laker hating rants and suck up backslapping of Reality (how's that for a run on sentence WOW?). You are starting to sound more like your buddy every day, and although you do it without the childlike silly little sarcasm, it just means I think you're really serious.

I personally would rather face Cleveland, not because I think they're inferior to Orlando, but because we match up way better with them so on that point Rick, you are at least partially right. That said, I worry about Orlando not because of Lewis, not because of Hedo, not because of the WEAK by comparison bench, but because of one big scary cat named Dwight Howard. He can be the difference maker, but consider, he stays in the lane when Gasol is back 8-10 feet at his peril, because Gasol will DESTROY them with his face to the basket from that range if Orlando sends anyone but Howard to guard him. Remember Kobe waiving a deferment pass from Gasol in game 5 (I believe)? Telling him to take his shot and be aggressive?
Remember when they set up the 1st half of the 4 quarter (I don't remember which game) for Gasol to be the focus of the offense? How he ate Denver's lunch?

You keep harping on LA's weak role players and yet Ariza, Brown, and Farmar continue to come up big, especially Trevor. You say how long can that last and then you say in this post Orlando's biggest strength is the 3 point shot! Any team who says that is where they will live and die WILL DIE. just like any jump shooting team, they get cold, even for a game or 2 and they are done, championships are won in the paint, and every time LA has played the post game, they've prevailed. Howard can only stop 1 of our post threats, problem is, we have 3-4 if they get their act together and play it that way. Odom, Ariza, Kobe, and Gasol can all score down low.

Ariza's faster and stronger than Lewis or Hedo, and he is a better defender, and has just as much range as either of them.

Odom, if he plays his game and doesn't get intimidated by Orlando's size and strength in the frontcourt, oh wait, they have none save Howard, is one of the best finishers in basketball and playing off the weak side gives him the edge because we all know where Howard's attention will be. Odom is, and has always been, the X factor, his post moves, when he employ's them, are the best in the NBA.

Gasol as I already mentioned can score from anywhere in the circle so he WILL demand a lot of Howard's time. If they use his ability in the post to its full effect, LA's game will be wide open from all over the floor.

Kobe, as both you and 'Koast mentioned, will torch Orlando and if any 2 of the above scenario's plays out, it will be too much for Orlando over the course of the series.

Add Brown off the bench, (remember his 3 sparking LA in the Denver series) and we can give Alston some problems, I would rather see Brown or Farmar start over Fisher for that reason alone but since it isn't going to happen, it will just have to be a situational thing.

None of this says LA will have an easy time with Orlando, I don't have time to go into all the cons, and 'Koast enumerated most of them nicely anyway, but you seem to think Orlando will just wax LA, you see how I made your same argument from the other side just as easily?

Oh and BTW, 'Koast's assumption that you would have picked the Cleveland LeBron's had they made the Finals is based on your bias, I tend to agree with his assessment. We can't get in your head 'tis true, but we can look at your posts and draw a logical conclusion.

[rickortreat]

I'll reply to the rest of your well-reasoned post later, but if you look back, at my previous posts, you will see that before the series started I picked LA to defeat Denver, and then started moving in their direction after I was Denver take a game in LA.

As for the Cleveland/Orlando series, I picked Orlando from the beginning, as I did when they faced Boston. I saw them beat Phila. (Not a surprise) and figured they would win in 6.  It's all here, for you to look up if you should care to.

I was wrong about a couple of match-ups early in the playoffs, especially with the teams out West which I'm not as familiar with. The records out there were so close it came down to specific match-ups, well beyond regular season statistics.

I'm not a prognosticator and I don't bet basketball games.  But I can differentiate between good teams and bad, and see which teams have serious flaws and which ones don't. Los Angles is the most complete prototypical NBA team currently in the NBA.  Their only glaring flaw is their starting point, and Fisher has been a decent player for most of his career, but he's just not at that level any longer. 

Orlando is a new type of NBA team, I think the logical outcome to the rule changes and the 3 point line. It's not a classical wining combo, but they are a very difficult team for anyone, since the play inside-out, and teams aren't used to defending against a penetrator throwing the ball back out to the three point line.  It's not natural for defenders to stay outside, most teams are more concerned about defending the inside shot. It's a very difficult habit to break, and it isn't easy to change habits developed over the course of a season.

In a 7-game series, LA will have time to adjust and try to stop the Magic attack.  Frankly I thought Phila. did the best job of defending Lewis and Turk out of the series they played. But that's because Iguodala and Young are good defenders.  But those Orlando players are 6'10" and can shoot from outside and drive the lane.  As it turned out, they both hit winning shots in close games even while being covered.  They can play under pressure and outplay their opponents. Maybe Ariza and Odom and or Bryant can do a better job of covering them, but Ariza and Bryant are 6'7" so their giving up height. Odom is their size, but he's not an outside player, and I don't know if he's a lock-down defender. 

I do think that Jackson will be forced to sit Bynum in favor of Odom to start, and I think that Orlando will have to start Petrius instead of one of their other guards besides Alston.

As I said there's plenty of time between now and the series start, and I do want to see what other people think.  The more heads working on a problem, the better, no matter how good one head is, none of us see everything.

[Derek Bodner]

Maybe Nike is unhappy with the match-up but real basketball fans should be very happy with an Orlando vs. LA series.

I'm not.  I see Orlando as an extremely flawed team who aren't very fun to watch from a basketball perspective.  I agree with WoW that they're not a very smart team to watch, and they frustrate me.

I think the Lakers win this one rather easily.

[rickortreat]

I will agree with you, Derrick, that they are an unusual team, but IMO they are the product of what the NBA is today.  When I think of the great teams of the past, there's no comparison, but in the modern era they are the team built to be successful within the parameters that the NBA has established.

Flawed, please tell me how.

They shoot lights out, they rebound well, they spread the floor. Good basketball, God no, but successful, sure as shinola!

LA is the better team in terms of historical winners, but Orlando is the new face of the NBA.  Here we reward outside shooters more than the athletes who drive the lane. "Cover us or die, because we can shoot 40% or better from the outside and you can't catch us" is, what Orlando is.

All one needs to do is shoot well from outside. We're rewarded handsomely for a shot beyond the circle, so all we need is to assemble a group that can make that shot an easy as the other team makes a layup.  We have so many that it matters not if one or two have an off-night, we have plenty more just waiting to come into the game!

No one can cover us, and the rebounds are long so we may get a shot if we miss. A short bounce will find it's way into our monster of a Center's hands. And he can't be stopped either!

Flawed, by some measures sure, but by the NBA's standards of today, we are MAGIC.

[WayOutWest]

I was going to post yesterday but I got busy so I'll just hit rick's post since he hit a few of the points I wanted to make.

I don't know where you get all these assumptions from, but you have no right to assume what my position is on anything, unless I state it!

Please rick, it's not a stretch to figure out what side of the Lakers fence you will land on.

If the Lakers go with Gasol and Bynum inside, on the offensive end they will have a size and strength advantage against Lewis.  But Lewis will be impossible for either LA big to defend on the other end.  I cannot see Bynum or Gasol following Lewis out to the 3 point line and being able to stay in front of him, and if they do, that lane will open up for Hedo and Alston like your freeways at 4 AM.  If they decide to go with Odom instead, that would be a better match-up but would again open up the lane.

Agreed rick, this was my first thought and it will be the most critical point of the series.  Who is going to "flinch"?  Will the Lakers be forced to make the adjustment to matchup with the Magic or vice versa?  IMO it will be the Lakers who will have to adjust to the Magic.  There is no way the Magic are taking Lewis or Hedo off the floor, if they needed to adjust to the Lakers they would have to sit the rookie Lee and start Batie or Gortoch (sic?) and I don't see that happening.  In order for the Lakers to matchup with the Magic they are going to have to put Odom on Lewis and sit Bynum.  IMO the Lakers might start Odom in game 1 and not even wait for the tide to swing towards the Magic because Gasol guarding Lewis would cause more problems for the Lakers than Lewis trying to guard Gasol or Bynum.  Gasol would either have to conceed the outside shot to Lewis, that might work for a quater or two but not for the series, or try and close on Lewis and watch Lewis blow by him and wreck the Lakers interior defense and allow Howard to go dunk crazy.  It's going to be impossible for Gasol to do much against Howard, if Gasol could not score effectively against the physical 6'6 Hayes then he's going to have very little impact against the DPOY Howard.  The only way Gasol has any sucess against Howard is if he faces up but it takes a long time for Gasol to get going if he gets intimidated.

The Lakers two primary scorers are a handful for any team and Gasol has enough ability to manage to score as long as he can get enough space against Howard, which I suspect he will, but probably not enough to offset what Dwight will do on the other end of the floor. One thing I'm pretty sure about is that Howard will not move outside the lane to stay with Gasol, instead they will cover him with Lewis or Turk, enabling Howard to guard the lane.

Having anyone but Howard guard Gasol would be a disaster for the Magic.  IMO Howard will guard Gasol and if the Lakers are smart they will make Gasol a face up player and force Howard a few steps away from the basket but with his speed Howard will still be able to protect the Lane.  The Lakers spot up shooters are going to have to be consistent but that is not something I expect from them at this time.  It will be up to Kobe, Ariza, and Odom to play smart and take advantage of the help defense on Kobe.  They will have to shot at a decent clip to hold their defenders at bay and drift towards the basket when the lane opens up for Kobe and Dwight comes over for help.  Kobe does not drive the lane like LeBron but he will do it enough to cause problems and since Kobe is more perimeter oriented he is going to be more effective than LeBron vs the Magic.

No-one can stop Kobe, all they can do is make him work. If anyone can do a credible job defending him, it will be Petrius, who did a phenomenal job of staying in front of the equally unstoppable LeBron James.  Except that Kobe is lighter and shorter so if anything Michael will have an easier time. Regardless Kobe will get his.

Petius did not get embarrised by LeBron but he was not effective at guarding LeBron based on his numbers for the entire series.  It will be even tougher for him to guard Kobe because Petrius's size will not help against Kobe since Kobe is about speed.  It will come down to Kobe vs Howard, who's going to cause more problems for the other defense and which team is going to have to adjust their defense first.

It's the rest of the Lakers that I have doubts about. They haven't exactly distinguished themselves in the playoffs, and only showed up in force in the Denver series. The thing is, Orlando's players are better than Denvers and even if they do show up I doubt they will get the better of the Magic players.  Fisher will be over matched by Alston and unable to keep Alston out of the lane.  This is the key match-up. If Alston can get inside at will, Orlando's inside-out offense will be unstoppable. The Lakers tend to pack it inside anyway, and Orlando couldn't care less, as they will happily shoot three's all day long and make to many of them for LA to stay close. This is a weakness most teams have, which is why Orlando is so hard to beat and why, IMO they beat the Lakers in both their meetings this season.  Obviously Phil will try to coach his players to stay with their men on the outside, but whether they can or not is another story.  Even if they do, are they quick enough to stay with Hedo, Lewis or Petrius when they see an open lane to the hole?

I don't think the Magic players are better than Denver but they are much smarter and stick to their system.  Fisher and the Lakers have had to face Deron, Brooks, and Billups and they are all FAR superior to Altson.  I am not worried about this matchup since Alston is not going to have his way with any Lakers PG, even the 3rd string.  Hedo, Lews, and Petrius are not as good as Melo or a focused Artest.  Ariza on Hedo will be fine, the only matchup problem will be Howard and Lewis but if Odom is on Lewis then I don't think Lewis will be too much trouble.

Statistically Orlando was a superior defensive team all season, they run back on defense immediately after a shot, meaning that LA won't get the easy buckets they got which made them the NBA's most lethal offensive team. Making LA work hard for their shots in  the half court should be all that it takes for Orlando to stay with the them, and their scoring will put exceptional pressure on the Lakers to even stay with them.

There is zero reason to believe that any team can put offensive pressure on the Lakers, in fact the only team that could was Denver and the Lakers did just fine in that regard.  When it comes down to the wire the Magic will not have an advantage in scoring over the Lakers since the Lakers will probably only need to worry about Howard and he's far from a polished offensive weapon.

Likewise, I think Orlando's deep bench will offset the play from the Lakers.  Sasha can't play and neither can Walton.  Orlando has players to offset what Brown, Odom/Bynum and Farmar can bring.

No way Orlando's bench has an advantage over the Lakers.  Walton has been playing well for the Lakers, it's more than just scoring when it comes to Walton and Sasha since both those guys can't hit the side of a barn.  Depending on who the Lakers start, Odom or Bynum, there is nobody on the Orlando bench that can make in impact like Odom.  Pietrius has been playing fantastic, he will have to continue to do that to offset Farmar/Brown/Walton.  IMO Gortach is playing better than Bynum so in that regard the Magic look ok.  One thing I'm worried about is Odom, he reminds me of a young James Worthy in that he gets intimidated by size and strength.  The problem is the only guy that can do that for Orlando is Howard and it's asking a lot of Howard to protect the rim from Kobe, Gasol, Odom and to a certain extent Bynum.  If Odom can play the way he did vs Utah and Denver then the Magic are going to have more trouble with Odom than they will with Kobe.

With all of that, it's going to take 6 or 7 games to determine who wins. It's not like Orlando will have an easy time in this series.  The Lakers have an edge in experience and they are every bit as hungry for a Championship. But Orlando has slugged it out with three quality teams in the East and outplayed each of them, even destroying Boston on their own home-court. They can win close games with a three and have done so on numerous occasions, making pressure shot after shot in the final few minutes. I haven't seen to many close contests between LA and anyone, since most teams can't even stay with them.  But in the games where Denver was with them at the end, my impression was that neither of those teams could perform as well as Cleveland and Orlando did in their series. I think Orlando can make the games close at the very least and we'll have to see if LA can stand up to the pressure.  Bryant lives for games like that, but so do Hedo and Lewis.

Orlando slugged it out with 3 teams that would have had a near impossible time to take it to 6 on the Lakers.  The Lakers would beat Philly in 5, Boston in 5, and Cleveland in 6.  Philly sucks, they had a couple of lucky games.  Boston was without KG and they should have been swept or taken in 5.  Denver was a better team than all of them.  I would not have said that about Cleveland but something happened to Cleveland that makes no sense to me.  LeBron completely lost his support.  There is no reason for Mo and Dante to have been so ineffective in the EC Finals, it make no sense at all.  The WC Finals Nuggets would have destroyed the EC Finals Cavs.  I think it may have something to do with what you mention a bit later in your post, maybe the Cavs lost heart becaue the Magic were destroying them on defense.  It is disheartening to work for your offense and then just have the other team drop a 3 bomb on you seemingly at will.  While I don't think Orlando's opponents were all that tough I do think the experience made Orlando very tough.  They have seen it all on their way to the Finals so IMO the Magic are mentally tougher and better prepared than the Lakers.  While the Lakers did have to play a game 7, the outcome was not really in doubt.  On the other hand the Magic have had to face ELIMINATION, the Magic have faced great adversity and it's made them really tough.  The Lakers did face some adversity but not the "do or die" drama that the Magic faced and conqured.

Nothing is more discouraging than playing a good game and finding yourself down, because the other team keeps making long-range shots. That is Orlando's game, and trying to play catch-up is not something the Lakers are used to.  Scoring two every time and giving up three on the other end is not going to get it done.  The Lakers are going to have to defend the Magic to win.  Defense is hard work and the Lakers only work hard on a sporadic basis. Orlando will force them to work that hard for 48 minutes.

Totally agree on that rick, excellent points.

Another prediction, this is going to be one of the best finals match-ups in years, better than last season's with the Lakers and Celtics, light years better than the Miami/Dallas series. Much more competitive than San Antonio's thrashing of the Cavaliers.

Maybe rick, maybe.  IMO if the Lakers really show up this could be a great series but if the Lakers come out of the gate like they have in the first 3 round than the series might be another shocker like the EC Finals, except it will only go 5 games.  It will be critical for the Lakers to win both of the first two games at home, but even if they don't they could still do an 88 Lakers and take it in 7 when they win 1 on the road.

While I am very aware of the potential problems for my team, my "Laker eyes" say the purple and gold win the series in 6.

[Joe Vancil]

First of all, the idea of "having anyone but Howard play Gasol is a mistake" is incorrect in this:  if the Lakers go with Gasol/Bynum, as they always do to start the game, you *MUST* cover Gasol with Lewis, because Pau is going to step out, and Bynum is going to be in the low post.  Anyone who thinks the correct notion is to cover Bynum with Lewis or Turkoglu in the post and sent Howard out to guard Gasol is a fool.  I don't like Bynum;  I think he's entirely overrated.  Yet if Gasol is outside the lane, no sane coach is going to pull Howard out of the lane to go cover him, when you've got Rashard Lewis, who, although he isn't a stellar defender, isn't a bad one.

This, however, is the problem that Orlando is going to face;  they will not be able to control Laker rebounders.  Essentially, much as Howard is going to try to carry the rebounding load by himself, and despite the fact that he's the best rebounder by far in this series, it's the Odom rebounding factor that is more decisive.  Lewis/Odom isn't mobile vs. slow power forward type;  this rebounding match-up, based on power, goes to Odom, and based on quickness is a wash.  Rashard Lewis is effective as a rebounder because he counts on winning the quickness match-up.  Odom's close to his quickness, and is a better rebounder by technique.

That said, the key for the Lakers this series is Gasol/Bynum, because, much as I like Gortat (and think Orlando's best shot is by playing him ahd Howard together), if you can draw fouls on Howard and sit him on the bench, all of a sudden, those Magic shooters don't see the light of day, and I don't trust Rafer Alston and Mikeal Pietrus to attack the rim and draw fouls against a Gasol or Bynum.  Jameer Nelson - MAYBE.  Not Alston/Pietrus.

Bottom line is this:  the whistle will decide the series.  LA has several people who can draw fouls on a strong drive - the most notable being Kobe.  Orlando's best in this regard is Turkoglu, and he's nowhere in the class of drawing fouls of Kobe/LeBron/Wade.  Los Angeles is going to be on the free-throw line, and Orlando is going to be on the three-point line.  (That's not necessarily a comment about bad officiating, and it's definitely not meant to say that "LA gets all the whistles," even though in this series, they're going to.  In this series, due to style, THEY SHOULD.)

Los Angeles should steal a page out of Detroit's book from the 2004 Finals.  How do you deal with Shaq - or in this case, Howard?  You don't have to if he's on the bench.  Attack him, draw some fouls, and force the coach to pull him.  And if the whistles go too heavily against Howard, it may be HOWARD who takes himself out.  He's at 5 technicals.

If Kobe steals a page from Wade and LeBron, and attacks the lane with the zeal and passion of those two, this series might barely go 4 games.  But I don't think Kobe is interested in working *THAT* hard.

Orlando does have a chance, however.  First, you have to keep Howard out of foul trouble.  Second, you have to deny LA the ability to drive the lane (and that goes a long way toward assuring the first point).  If the Lakers try to live from the outside - if they try to outshoot the Magic from 3-point range, they will likely lose the series.  That's why you have to have Gasol be aggressive to the goal if you're a Laker fan.  And Kobe's at 5 technicals himself.

If the Lakers attack the goal aggressively, and run the ball through Gasol and use his passing in helping that attack, the series favors the Lakers.  And if they don't, then they deserve to lose.

Offensive aggresssiveness toward the basket favors LA.  Rebounding favors LA.  Defense favors LA.  Coaching favors LA.  Bench - in my opinion favors LA.  The only two things that favor Orlando are 1) the team with the better starting Center - in this case, Howard vs. Bynum - generally wins the series (which is why last year was such a shock to me), and 2) Orlando is a better 3-point shooting team.  (Of course, you live by the outside shot, you die by the outside shot.)

As for Derek Fisher, Sasha Vujacic, and Jordan Farmar, Phil Jackson needs to institute this policy:  you can only take as many 3-pointers as you get rebounds.  Run through the half-court offense through the bigs and Kobe.  If LA tries to shoot 3's with Orlando, they lose.

My call:  Lakers in 6.  Why 6?  Because of the stupid 2-3-2 format.  Orlando will win 2-of-3 at home, and in this series, that justifies this HORRIBLE 2-3-2 format, because in a 2-2-1-1-1 series, there would only be 5 games.

Who am I cheering for?  Orlando, because I love Howard and like Lewis and Nelson (even though his style has driven me crazy up until this year), although I won't mind Gasol and Ariza getting rings.

Oh.  I forgot that tidbit.  Think Orlando is sorry they gave up on Ariza now?  That Ariza/Evans deal worked out *REALLY* well for LA.

[WayOutWest]

First of all, the idea of "having anyone but Howard play Gasol is a mistake" is incorrect in this:  if the Lakers go with Gasol/Bynum, as they always do to start the game, you *MUST* cover Gasol with Lewis, because Pau is going to step out, and Bynum is going to be in the low post.  Anyone who thinks the correct notion is to cover Bynum with Lewis or Turkoglu in the post and sent Howard out to guard Gasol is a fool.  I don't like Bynum;  I think he's entirely overrated.  Yet if Gasol is outside the lane, no sane coach is going to pull Howard out of the lane to go cover him, when you've got Rashard Lewis, who, although he isn't a stellar defender, isn't a bad one.

Joe,

The reason I say that Howard should guard Gasol is because Howard can intimidate Gasol.  If Gasol is not a consistent scoring threat then you take away a lot of what makes him a great passer.  Put anyone else on Gasol and he will destroy the Magic.  Having Lewis guard him allows Gasol to produce with maximun effeciency and throughput.  He will score inside, find the open shooters and cutters, and in cause havoc for the Magic defense.  Bynum is so out of it right now that almost anybody can guard him and he will probably be on the bench for most of the time.  IF, big if IMO, Bynum continues to start the Magic will obviously put Howard on him and try to have Lewis guard Gasol and hope they can offset that mismatch on the other end of the court.  The Magic have two options, go big with Lews moving to SF and Hedo to SG for a better defensive matchup or stick to the game plan they used against the Cavs.  I think they stay small and force the Lakers to matchup with Odom.  When the Lakers do that they are asking too much of Gasol to defend Howard and be an offensive force on the other end.

I would like to see the Lakers force the Magic to play Gasol/Bynum but with the way Bynum has been playing I doubt they stick with that plan for very long.  Bynum would be able to hold his own better than Big Z but he will be far from effective as Perkins was in the semi's.

[westkoast]

First of all, the idea of "having anyone but Howard play Gasol is a mistake" is incorrect in this:  if the Lakers go with Gasol/Bynum, as they always do to start the game, you *MUST* cover Gasol with Lewis, because Pau is going to step out, and Bynum is going to be in the low post.  Anyone who thinks the correct notion is to cover Bynum with Lewis or Turkoglu in the post and sent Howard out to guard Gasol is a fool.  I don't like Bynum;  I think he's entirely overrated.  Yet if Gasol is outside the lane, no sane coach is going to pull Howard out of the lane to go cover him, when you've got Rashard Lewis, who, although he isn't a stellar defender, isn't a bad one.

This, however, is the problem that Orlando is going to face;  they will not be able to control Laker rebounders.  Essentially, much as Howard is going to try to carry the rebounding load by himself, and despite the fact that he's the best rebounder by far in this series, it's the Odom rebounding factor that is more decisive.  Lewis/Odom isn't mobile vs. slow power forward type;  this rebounding match-up, based on power, goes to Odom, and based on quickness is a wash.  Rashard Lewis is effective as a rebounder because he counts on winning the quickness match-up.  Odom's close to his quickness, and is a better rebounder by technique.

That said, the key for the Lakers this series is Gasol/Bynum, because, much as I like Gortat (and think Orlando's best shot is by playing him ahd Howard together), if you can draw fouls on Howard and sit him on the bench, all of a sudden, those Magic shooters don't see the light of day, and I don't trust Rafer Alston and Mikeal Pietrus to attack the rim and draw fouls against a Gasol or Bynum.  Jameer Nelson - MAYBE.  Not Alston/Pietrus.

Bottom line is this:  the whistle will decide the series.  LA has several people who can draw fouls on a strong drive - the most notable being Kobe.  Orlando's best in this regard is Turkoglu, and he's nowhere in the class of drawing fouls of Kobe/LeBron/Wade.  Los Angeles is going to be on the free-throw line, and Orlando is going to be on the three-point line.  (That's not necessarily a comment about bad officiating, and it's definitely not meant to say that "LA gets all the whistles," even though in this series, they're going to.  In this series, due to style, THEY SHOULD.)

Los Angeles should steal a page out of Detroit's book from the 2004 Finals.  How do you deal with Shaq - or in this case, Howard?  You don't have to if he's on the bench.  Attack him, draw some fouls, and force the coach to pull him.  And if the whistles go too heavily against Howard, it may be HOWARD who takes himself out.  He's at 5 technicals.

If Kobe steals a page from Wade and LeBron, and attacks the lane with the zeal and passion of those two, this series might barely go 4 games.  But I don't think Kobe is interested in working *THAT* hard.

Orlando does have a chance, however.  First, you have to keep Howard out of foul trouble.  Second, you have to deny LA the ability to drive the lane (and that goes a long way toward assuring the first point).  If the Lakers try to live from the outside - if they try to outshoot the Magic from 3-point range, they will likely lose the series.  That's why you have to have Gasol be aggressive to the goal if you're a Laker fan.  And Kobe's at 5 technicals himself.

If the Lakers attack the goal aggressively, and run the ball through Gasol and use his passing in helping that attack, the series favors the Lakers.  And if they don't, then they deserve to lose.

Offensive aggresssiveness toward the basket favors LA.  Rebounding favors LA.  Defense favors LA.  Coaching favors LA.  Bench - in my opinion favors LA.  The only two things that favor Orlando are 1) the team with the better starting Center - in this case, Howard vs. Bynum - generally wins the series (which is why last year was such a shock to me), and 2) Orlando is a better 3-point shooting team.  (Of course, you live by the outside shot, you die by the outside shot.)

As for Derek Fisher, Sasha Vujacic, and Jordan Farmar, Phil Jackson needs to institute this policy:  you can only take as many 3-pointers as you get rebounds.  Run through the half-court offense through the bigs and Kobe.  If LA tries to shoot 3's with Orlando, they lose.

My call:  Lakers in 6.  Why 6?  Because of the stupid 2-3-2 format.  Orlando will win 2-of-3 at home, and in this series, that justifies this HORRIBLE 2-3-2 format, because in a 2-2-1-1-1 series, there would only be 5 games.

Who am I cheering for?  Orlando, because I love Howard and like Lewis and Nelson (even though his style has driven me crazy up until this year), although I won't mind Gasol and Ariza getting rings.

Oh.  I forgot that tidbit.  Think Orlando is sorry they gave up on Ariza now?  That Ariza/Evans deal worked out *REALLY* well for LA.

Good post as always sir!

One thing though.  I don't think the Lakers start Gasol/Bynum in this series for reasons you alluded to in your post.  Pau will play the 5 and Odom the 4.  At least that is my thinking match up wise.  This was the line up for a good portion of the year and it was effective for long stretches of time.  With Bynum coming off the bench you have a better match up on the defensive end with Odom/Lewis.  You also have two big men who pass well in the interior and out of double teams.  Odom won't see a double but he often is the person who gets the pass out of a double and scores or makes the additional pass to get the ball moving.

I say Howard on Pau for the same reason W.O.W is saying it above me.  You don't want Lewis on Gasol in the post much like you don't want Gasol trying to chase around Lewis.  Lewis is a solid defender but he also is not a post defender.  He relies on his long arms and quickness for his size to guard players.  In the post with a guy with multiple moves is a tough cover either way.  I don't think anyone has the ability to disrupt Gasol other than Howard.  When Pau Gasol gets going he's as tough as anyone in the post and he does get 'hot' like any other basketball player.

[WayOutWest]

Good post as always sir!

One thing though.  I don't think the Lakers start Gasol/Bynum in this series for reasons you alluded to in your post.  Pau will play the 5 and Odom the 4.  At least that is my thinking match up wise.  This was the line up for a good portion of the year and it was effective for long stretches of time.  With Bynum coming off the bench you have a better match up on the defensive end with Odom/Lewis.  You also have two big men who pass well in the interior and out of double teams.  Odom won't see a double but he often is the person who gets the pass out of a double and scores or makes the additional pass to get the ball moving.

The other thing that will be interesting is the 2nd unit matchup on Lewis/Hedo.  Ariza and/or Odom will get into foul trouble at some point durring the series, or they may just need a rest.  Who do the Lakers put on Lewis/Hedo?  Walton was put on Melo so IMO it makes sense to put him on Hedo.  That leaves Kobe/Brown/Sasha to guard Lewis.  Sasha would be a disaster, much like Dante was, and you still have size problems with Kobe/Brown.  PJ might try Josh on Lewis but he will have problems playing Lewis for the drive. 

IMO the Lakers will not be able to play Gasol/Bynum for heavy minutes so the Lakers are going to have a matchup problem with the Magic.  Kobe will be a problem for the Magic and Howard/Lewis will be a problem for the Lakers.  IMO we are going to see Odom play a lot more minutes at PF so Lewis will not be a matchup problem, in the end it will come down to Howard vs Kobe.

I say Howard on Pau for the same reason W.O.W is saying it above me.  You don't want Lewis on Gasol in the post much like you don't want Gasol trying to chase around Lewis.  Lewis is a solid defender but he also is not a post defender.  He relies on his long arms and quickness for his size to guard players.  In the post with a guy with multiple moves is a tough cover either way.  I don't think anyone has the ability to disrupt Gasol other than Howard.  When Pau Gasol gets going he's as tough as anyone in the post and he does get 'hot' like any other basketball player.

Joe has lost his marbles on that point, I think he's jast mad that I like him enough to punch him in the face.

[rickortreat]

I think from your comments that you are all beginning to realize the match-up problems Orlando creates.  You are all talking about the Lakers changing their line-up to deal with the Magic scorers.  Odom is as good a scorer as Bynum anyway, but he's not an outside defender, either.

Let's address this live with and die by the three nonsense first:

The Magic have shot close to 38% from the 3 point line all season, and .367 in the playoffs. 4 of 10 is 40%. 3.67 x 3 = 11.1.  If the Lakers shoot 50% from the field 5 x 2 = 10.  See the problem?  The Lakers haven't even shot that well in the playoffs. They have only managed .467 from the 2.The idea that the Lakers can suddenly change their habits overnight and become a good defensive team against three point shooters is something I consider wishful thinking.  It's not just Hedo and Lewis either, Alston shoots the three, Petrius shoots the three, JJ Reddick shoots the 3.  You can't cover them all or expect them all to suddenly go cold against a team that doesn't cover the outside well.  The Magic don't just live by the three, they thrive on it!

Further, if the Lakers focus on the outside that gives Howard the room to operate.  Throughout the playoffs Howard has been hitting his free throws, so fouling him won't work, and they can't afford to loose Gasol to foul trouble.  Will they use Bynum, Powell and Mbenga to try to defend Howard?  It will be interesting to see how the Lakers defend against a team that makes it so hard to cover all their players. And still manage to score enough to win.

The Lakers need to get Howard into foul trouble, but Howard has learned how to play smart and smile when he gets a foul called on him no matter how outrageous. Th Lakers don't have a pest like Varajo to annoy him either. I don't think that Kobe will get the calls driving the lane like LeBron did. If Dwight is guarding the lane, Kobe will have to stop and pop.  That is after Kobe gets by Petrius or whoever is the first defender.  If Kobe can get by Petrius he can set up Gasol since Howard will have to divide his attention. There's only one ball, so Howard will try to stop Gasol on the inside, and let Lewis cover him on the outside.  If Gasol can score consistently from outside, that will be a negative for the Magic, but whether it will be enough to secure the series is another matter.

A 6'7" Ariza on Hedo is not going to work, IMO. You're comparing a guy who averages less than 10 against a 6'10" player that shoots the 3 and drives to the hole and puts up 15 and 5 assists.  If you have Gasol and Odom up front on Howard and Lewis, who's going to keep Hedo in check? Ariza can't offset Hedo's scoring with his own.  The Magic are flexible with their attack too, whichever match-up favors them is the one their going to go at.  Hedo is the one you have to keep in check since he is the Magic's leading assist man.  Odom can't stay with him, IMO, he's an inside defender. Who else do the Lakers have that won't be a liability on the other end of the floor?

We all agree that Kobe is going to get his, but he is going to have to score 35+ to overcome the Magic scoring. And Gasol will have to pump in over 20 per game as well.

On the plus side the ESPN genius crew is going 9-1 in favor of the Lakers.

Petrius outscored the entire Cavalier bench in several games during their series. We're talking about the Lakers having to guard Howard, Lewis and Hedo, you add Petrius into that mix and the Lakers are going to be stretched thin, meaning no double-teams on Howard. Everyone trying to stop Orlando this season had the same problems.

I'm not as familiar with the Laker bench, but looking at the boxscores it doesn't seem like any of them are a real threat, and none of them play extended minutes.   Will any of them suddenly become significant contributors in the finals!?

Correct me on this, if I'm wrong, but the Lakers depend on Gasol and Kobe for their scoring and the others occasionally pump in the remainder. That means the Magic need to slow down one of them to get the edge, probably Gasol.  When Orlando has the ball, Howard gets the lions share of the touches, and he is usually open, because his man if forced to help on the penetrator. If he does get covered, there isn't a better team in the league at finding the open man and there all threats to shoot.  If you've watched them, the Magic work the ball moving it around and from side to side. The Lakers pressure defense did win a few games for them, but I can't see them having the same effect on a team that spreads the floor so well. More likely the Magic will find an open man in space and bomb away.

The one thing that has been consistent is that everyone has discounted the Magic explaining away what they do and assuming that they won't continue to shoot the way they have all season.  My conclusion is that they are better than everyone thinks and few realize just how good they are. It's always that way with the new up and coming team.

The one thing in the Lakers favor is that the Celtics were tougher on them than Cleveland, because Boston was stronger inside, as the Lakers are. Once Garnett and Powe went down Orlando had an easier time of it and won the series. If the Lakers can play big, they may bother Howard enough and keep Lewis and Hedo from driving. That will keep them in the series if the Magic aren't shooting well from the outside. I figure the Magic may have one off game, and Kobe will have one or two spectacular games. That would give the Lakers 3 wins and Orlando 4.

I figure a split in LA and they'll get one in Orlando of the three. They'll head back to the LA up 3-2, and I don't think LA can win two in a row against this team.  Kobe will have to be spectacular in a game where Orlando is hitting well from the outside and just might edge them out to win the extra game they need to win the series.

Still thinking Orlando in 6 or 7. 

Officiating may make the difference in this series, and I'm not talking about them playing favorites, but just calling the game straight. It will be Kobe vs. Howard at the line and that favors the Lakers. The fewer fouls called on Kobe's defender, the better it will be for the Magic. If they can just let Kobe score and not foul him for that extra point they should win. Petrius did a very good job on LeBron and didn't foul out once. Howard got better and better as the series went on, and hasn't gotten into trouble with the refs since his technical was rescinded. If he can stay on the floor for most of the game, I think it will be too much for even the Lakers to deal with.

[Joe Vancil]

Officiating *WILL* make the difference in the series, and the fact that LA has more foul-drawers will be the difference.  Shoot 3-pointers all you want - you'll not make up the difference between the combination of 2's, 3's, and free throws unless you're scorching hot.

It's not the better shooting offense that has the advantage - it's the more WELL-ROUNDED offense that has the advantage.

Two teams that live-by-the-3/die-by-the-3 have won the NBA title:  the 1994 Houston Rockets and the 1995 Houston Rockets.  The 1995 Rockets met a team that ALSO played live-by-the-3/die-by-the-3;  the 1994 Rockets won a 7-game series when John Starks went 2-19 in Game 7.

In order for Orlando to win, Howard is going to have to be as effective as Olajuwon was.  Now I like Howard, and I think he's improving, and might one day get there....but offensively, he ain't Olajuwon yet.