Author Topic: Can anyone beat the MVP?  (Read 7274 times)

Offline WayOutWest

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Re: Can anyone beat the MVP?
« Reply #30 on: April 07, 2009, 06:45:00 PM »
Have you even watched Hedo play?  He is every but as versatile as Ginobli, but he's also taller, which makes matching up even more difficult.

Been watching Hedo since he was called Turkey-Glue and was only 6'7, how about you?  You've probably only watching him since he was with the Magic.  He's not nearly as versatile as Manu, Manu is a total pain in the arse to guard.

And, there is no way I'd favor the Lakers over healthy Celtics.  They play much better defense than the Lakers and they are better rebounders.  Pierce is bigger and stronger than Kobe, and Garnett is better than Gasol.  Further the Lakers have no one, save Kobe who can stay with Ray Allen.

Should they meet in the finals would you care to wager on the outcome?  I would have no problem sending Dabods the money to hold in "escrow".

P.S. Obviously I would not expect you to take the bet if KG is not available to the Celts but I will take the bet with or without Bynum on the Lakers.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2009, 06:46:40 PM by WayOutWest »
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Can anyone beat the MVP?
« Reply #31 on: April 08, 2009, 09:33:12 AM »
I was looking at totals, not shooting percentage.  But you are right, Ginobli is a significantly better shooter.  But both players are very difficult to guard. 


So in 10 additional minutes a game Hedo manages 1 more point.  And plays at a faster pace.  I wonder why his PER is never in the top 10 like Manu's.


And Orlando plays at a higher pace than SA, which makes each shot less significant.

Do you really believe this nonsense?

Any offensive possession should be significant.  Just because they play a faster pace doesn't change the significance of the possession.  They also have to defend more possessions by their opponents.
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Offline rickortreat

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Re: Can anyone beat the MVP?
« Reply #32 on: April 08, 2009, 10:26:31 AM »
I was looking at totals, not shooting percentage.  But you are right, Ginobli is a significantly better shooter.  But both players are very difficult to guard. 


So in 10 additional minutes a game Hedo manages 1 more point.  And plays at a faster pace.  I wonder why his PER is never in the top 10 like Manu's.


And Orlando plays at a higher pace than SA, which makes each shot less significant.

Do you really believe this nonsense?

Any offensive possession should be significant.  Just because they play a faster pace doesn't change the significance of the possession.  They also have to defend more possessions by their opponents.

Of course it does, you're not very bright about this are you?  There is a difference between pace and actual defense.  Teams like the Spurs play at a slower pace, teams like Orlando play at a faster pace.  The only thing that matters in terms of defense is the point differential- the difference between what your team scores and what it allows.

The teams that play slow do so, because they think that it is to their advantage- that their disciplined style and focus on execution is superior to the other team and that their defense pressure is superior as well.  It's an old Larry Brown formula for winning.

Teams like the Magic don't worry so much about D, instead they focus on offense and outscoring your team, that doesn't mean they don't play D, it simply means that at times they don't have to, because other teams that are used to controlling the pace see them run out to a 20 pt. lead and give up.

I used to think SA' style was the only way to go, but the Magic aren't just a running team. They're a running team with the best Center in the game. They are very difficult to stop even in the half-court, because they play inside-out, drive and kick ball.  It's much harder to defend because the passing lanes are different and they have confidence in their shooters and the long ball.  Can you afford to leave Howard down on the block?  How do you cover all those three-point shooters, when they don't miss.
You don't need a great defense when your offense gets you a consistent lead, just an occaissional stop.

What happens when the two teams meet? It depends on which team can control the pace.  SA may want a slow game, but they can't stop Orlando from running out after a made or missed shot. You saw how close Phoenix got a few years ago with that style, the difference is that Orlando is better at it.  Cleveland, which is coached by a Larry Brown/Greg Pop disciple, and considered an elite team cannot defend Orlando.

Also, while  it's good that Manu is soo productive in such a shot amount of time, why is it that he's on the floor for less than half a game?  That's why Manu doesn't get the credit he deserves.  A reasonable conclusion is that he's not in good enough condition to play 38-40 min. a game.

Offline Derek Bodner

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Re: Can anyone beat the MVP?
« Reply #33 on: April 08, 2009, 10:35:21 AM »
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Of course it does, you're not very bright about this are you?

There's no need for comments such as these.  Can we please try to remain civil?

Offline Lurker

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Re: Can anyone beat the MVP?
« Reply #34 on: April 08, 2009, 10:57:39 AM »
I was looking at totals, not shooting percentage.  But you are right, Ginobli is a significantly better shooter.  But both players are very difficult to guard. 


So in 10 additional minutes a game Hedo manages 1 more point.  And plays at a faster pace.  I wonder why his PER is never in the top 10 like Manu's.


And Orlando plays at a higher pace than SA, which makes each shot less significant.

Do you really believe this nonsense?

Any offensive possession should be significant.  Just because they play a faster pace doesn't change the significance of the possession.  They also have to defend more possessions by their opponents.

Of course it does, you're not very bright about this are you?  There is a difference between pace and actual defense.  Teams like the Spurs play at a slower pace, teams like Orlando play at a faster pace.  The only thing that matters in terms of defense is the point differential- the difference between what your team scores and what it allows.

The teams that play slow do so, because they think that it is to their advantage- that their disciplined style and focus on execution is superior to the other team and that their defense pressure is superior as well.  It's an old Larry Brown formula for winning.

Teams like the Magic don't worry so much about D, instead they focus on offense and outscoring your team, that doesn't mean they don't play D, it simply means that at times they don't have to, because other teams that are used to controlling the pace see them run out to a 20 pt. lead and give up.

I used to think SA' style was the only way to go, but the Magic aren't just a running team. They're a running team with the best Center in the game. They are very difficult to stop even in the half-court, because they play inside-out, drive and kick ball.  It's much harder to defend because the passing lanes are different and they have confidence in their shooters and the long ball.  Can you afford to leave Howard down on the block?  How do you cover all those three-point shooters, when they don't miss.
You don't need a great defense when your offense gets you a consistent lead, just an occaissional stop.

What happens when the two teams meet? It depends on which team can control the pace.  SA may want a slow game, but they can't stop Orlando from running out after a made or missed shot. You saw how close Phoenix got a few years ago with that style, the difference is that Orlando is better at it.  Cleveland, which is coached by a Larry Brown/Greg Pop disciple, and considered an elite team cannot defend Orlando.

And I am still trying to figure out how you conclude that just because a team has more possessions (i.e. a faster pace) it makes each possession less significant.  A bunch of words and no answer.

Also Cleveland has a more efficient offense than Orlando so based on this "logic" Cleveland is better than Orlando because they will score more easily and don't have to worry about defense.


Also, while  it's good that Manu is soo productive in such a shot amount of time, why is it that he's on the floor for less than half a game?  That's why Manu doesn't get the credit he deserves.  A reasonable conclusion is that he's not in good enough condition to play 38-40 min. a game.

Are you serious?



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Offline Skandery

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Re: Can anyone beat the MVP?
« Reply #35 on: April 08, 2009, 11:04:54 AM »
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It's much harder to defend because the passing lanes are different and they have confidence in their shooters and the long ball.  Can you afford to leave Howard down on the block?  How do you cover all those three-point shooters, when they don't miss.
You don't need a great defense when your offense gets you a consistent lead, just an occaissional stop.

Hmmm . . . the Magic Kingdom . . . a monster Center down low . . . surrounded by 3 pt. shooters . . . hmmmm where have I seen this before . . . let me think!

Hmmm . . . how will anyone ever stop a team like that?  ::)
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Can anyone beat the MVP?
« Reply #36 on: April 08, 2009, 11:46:23 AM »
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It's much harder to defend because the passing lanes are different and they have confidence in their shooters and the long ball.  Can you afford to leave Howard down on the block?  How do you cover all those three-point shooters, when they don't miss.
You don't need a great defense when your offense gets you a consistent lead, just an occaissional stop.

Hmmm . . . the Magic Kingdom . . . a monster Center down low . . . surrounded by 3 pt. shooters . . . hmmmm where have I seen this before . . . let me think!

Hmmm . . . how will anyone ever stop a team like that?  ::)

By putting one of the wings at the charity stripe with the game on the line.
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Offline rickortreat

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Re: Can anyone beat the MVP?
« Reply #37 on: April 08, 2009, 12:39:55 PM »
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And I am still trying to figure out how you conclude that just because a team has more possessions (i.e. a faster pace) it makes each possession less significant.  A bunch of words and no answer.

Also Cleveland has a more efficient offense than Orlando so based on this "logic" Cleveland is better than Orlando because they will score more easily and don't have to worry about defense.

A faster pace means each individual shot is less significant.  Think of it in terms of percentage.  Orlando's pace is 94.9 possessions. Therefore each shot is 1/94.9 of the total or 1.0537%  San Antonio 's pace is 90.4. So, each possession is 1.1061% of the total. Therefore, each possession in a San Antonio pace game is slightly more significant to the total score.

Orlando is by no means the fastest team in the league, and from the distribution it appears there is no advantage to one pace over the other, as playoff and elite teams range all over the place with Denver and LA at 97, ranked 5 and 6 respectively, to Cleveland, San Antonio, New Orleans, Portland and Detroit at the bottom. 

What they do have in common is the differential between their offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.  The best teams by defensive efficiency turn out to be the best teams in the league, almost every playoff team is in the top 16 and there are only 2 below at 17 and 18. Hollinger doesn't print the spread, but it's easy enough to do the math.  The best teams are +10 to +7.9 and include what are generally regarded as the top 4 teams in order: Cleveland, Boston, Orlando and LA.


Offline ziggy

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Re: Can anyone beat the MVP?
« Reply #38 on: April 08, 2009, 03:16:02 PM »
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And I am still trying to figure out how you conclude that just because a team has more possessions (i.e. a faster pace) it makes each possession less significant.  A bunch of words and no answer.

Also Cleveland has a more efficient offense than Orlando so based on this "logic" Cleveland is better than Orlando because they will score more easily and don't have to worry about defense.

A faster pace means each individual shot is less significant.  Think of it in terms of percentage.  Orlando's pace is 94.9 possessions. Therefore each shot is 1/94.9 of the total or 1.0537%  San Antonio 's pace is 90.4. So, each possession is 1.1061% of the total. Therefore, each possession in a San Antonio pace game is slightly more significant to the total score.

Orlando is by no means the fastest team in the league, and from the distribution it appears there is no advantage to one pace over the other, as playoff and elite teams range all over the place with Denver and LA at 97, ranked 5 and 6 respectively, to Cleveland, San Antonio, New Orleans, Portland and Detroit at the bottom. 

What they do have in common is the differential between their offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.  The best teams by defensive efficiency turn out to be the best teams in the league, almost every playoff team is in the top 16 and there are only 2 below at 17 and 18. Hollinger doesn't print the spread, but it's easy enough to do the math.  The best teams are +10 to +7.9 and include what are generally regarded as the top 4 teams in order: Cleveland, Boston, Orlando and LA.


Rick you are thinking in terms of averages, instead of considering each possession as a marginal possession.  Everything is identical for the first 90.4 possessions for both teams.  Orlando gets 4.5 more possessions.  Each of those additional possessions will have exactly the same value as the first 90.4.  The marginal benefit of the next possession is exactly identical (1, 2 or 3 points scored, and 1, 2, or 3 points not allowed).  Just because you get 4.5 more possessions does not mean that the previous 90.4 possessions are now less valuable.  They are worth what they were worth, and the next 4.5 have the same value has the previous 90.4.

Think of it terms of hours and pay.  Each person worked 90.4 hours.  One then chose to work 4.5 more hours.  The next 4.5 hours pay the same as the previous 90.4 hours, it had no impact on the previous 90.4 hours.  Orlando now has more money (points), but SA has the same amount of money but more free time.  The value of the hours worked though has not changed at all.

The value of each possession is the opportunity to score 1, 2, or 3 points, and the opportunity to keep your opponent from scoring 1, 2, or 3 points.  The efficiency of performance per possession is what matters, not the number of possessions.
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Can anyone beat the MVP?
« Reply #39 on: April 08, 2009, 03:25:34 PM »
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And I am still trying to figure out how you conclude that just because a team has more possessions (i.e. a faster pace) it makes each possession less significant.  A bunch of words and no answer.

Also Cleveland has a more efficient offense than Orlando so based on this "logic" Cleveland is better than Orlando because they will score more easily and don't have to worry about defense.

A faster pace means each individual shot is less significant.  Think of it in terms of percentage.  Orlando's pace is 94.9 possessions. Therefore each shot is 1/94.9 of the total or 1.0537%  San Antonio 's pace is 90.4. So, each possession is 1.1061% of the total. Therefore, each possession in a San Antonio pace game is slightly more significant to the total score.

Orlando is by no means the fastest team in the league, and from the distribution it appears there is no advantage to one pace over the other, as playoff and elite teams range all over the place with Denver and LA at 97, ranked 5 and 6 respectively, to Cleveland, San Antonio, New Orleans, Portland and Detroit at the bottom. 

What they do have in common is the differential between their offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.  The best teams by defensive efficiency turn out to be the best teams in the league, almost every playoff team is in the top 16 and there are only 2 below at 17 and 18. Hollinger doesn't print the spread, but it's easy enough to do the math.  The best teams are +10 to +7.9 and include what are generally regarded as the top 4 teams in order: Cleveland, Boston, Orlando and LA.



Now you are mixing apples and oranges.

Defensive and offensive efficiencies are measurements that are already adjusted for pace.  That is the purpose of looking at those numbers instead of scoring and points allowed.  Points scored/allowed are greatly effected by pace...efficiency isn't.

But back to your original premise...none of this changes the fact that Manu is a better shooter than Hedo.  And pace doesn't factor into that.  Either you hit 45% of your shots or you hit 40%.  And a 40% shooter is not better than a 45% shooter.  And it doesn't matter if you average 9.99 shots per game for your career (Hedo) or 10.38 shots per game (Manu).  You see this means that over their careers they have taken about the same number of shots per game but Manu converts on 5% more of his attempts; thus Manu is a better shooter.
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Offline WayOutWest

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Re: Can anyone beat the MVP?
« Reply #40 on: April 08, 2009, 06:46:10 PM »
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Of course it does, you're not very bright about this are you?

There's no need for comments such as these.  Can we please try to remain civil?

Have you been on vacation?  That moron has been making comments like that since day one, what difference does it make now?
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Offline Joe Vancil

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Re: Can anyone beat the MVP?
« Reply #41 on: April 09, 2009, 08:17:26 PM »
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It's much harder to defend because the passing lanes are different and they have confidence in their shooters and the long ball.  Can you afford to leave Howard down on the block?  How do you cover all those three-point shooters, when they don't miss.
You don't need a great defense when your offense gets you a consistent lead, just an occaissional stop.

Hmmm . . . the Magic Kingdom . . . a monster Center down low . . . surrounded by 3 pt. shooters . . . hmmmm where have I seen this before . . . let me think!

Hmmm . . . how will anyone ever stop a team like that?  ::)

Well, when Houston did it, they did it by having a monster Center down low, and surrounded him by 3-point shooters.

Joe

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