Author Topic: OT - Now what?  (Read 5044 times)

Offline WayOutWest

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OT - Now what?
« on: January 20, 2009, 09:11:05 PM »
Today seemed just like any other day.  Traffic sucked, I lost thousands in my 401K, gas prices are rising, criminals in the streets, and I'm still losing my hair!  What the frog is this Obama guy doing?
"History shouldn't be a mystery"
"Our story is real history"
"Not his story"

"My people's culture was strong, it was pure"
"And if not for that white greed"
"It would've endured"

"Laker hate causes blindness"

Offline rickortreat

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Re: OT - Now what?
« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2009, 11:40:33 PM »
Obama has been dealt a very difficult hand, and it will be very hard for him or anyone to turn this country's direction around.  I sense that he is a good man, and he does have a great financial advisor in Paul Volker.

The entire world is in serious financial trouble, and governments are finding it difficult to stop the decay. Most of them do not understand economics, if they did, we wouldn't be in this mess.

Businesses are failing everywhere, because many consumers are tapped out, and those that aren't are being cautious. When people don't spend businesses fail, when businesses fail they lay off workers, which causes people to be even more cautious in spending. That is a financial downward spiral, known as depression.

You already know that I've been telling everyone to buy gold, and even that got slammed in the past year.  That particular process will soon be over, since as people loose faith in all currencies, the only thing that will shine is precious metals.  Currently the Comex, the market where people are able to buy and sell gold is being dominated by the shorts.  The reason they have been able to do so for now, is that the buyers are mostly speculators, who have no intention, or the money for that matter to take delivery.  The overhead supply enables the shorts to steal their lunch.  As more and more people with the means seek the safety of Gold that supply will soon dissipate, and you will see gold start to rise. Silver too.

The dow and the S&P are falling now, and should bottom out at the lows of last November (that's a guess, not a guarantee). I suspect a desperate attempt to add liquidity will find it's way into the market and it will start to rise.  Even with business conditions deteriorating, the stock market can rise, as long as their is liquidity available. This happened in the 30's as well.

We are in uncharted financial territory.  The case model is the Weimar republic in Germany, where the mark declined to the point where it took billion mark notes to buy groceries.  Much of the rest of the world struggled as well, but not to the same extent.  This time around, all currencies are unsound, and backed by NOTHING. The only thing that makes them appear valuable is the people's trust in them, and trust is not a stable thing.

I don't have a crystal ball, and don't know what the world's leaders will try to do to stop the problem. My best guess is that the US in an attempt to hold things together will try to start a massive jobs program, spending public money on infrastructure and hopefully food production. If they can get money into people's hands, that will eventually help the housing market.  But public spending of this type can by highly inflationary so each dollar you have will be worth less.  And that is what will make gold very attractive.  They can print money, but cannot manufacture Gold or Oil or any consumable.  That takes honest work.

If I'm right about inflation, you won't have to worry about debt.  Cheaper dollars will make it easy to pay off any debt you have, as long as you have work. If you have any control over your 401k, see if you can move it out of the usual sectors and into gold mining companies and food companies.  If your particular plan doesn't have those options, you can make a tax-free transfer into an IRA. I like US Global Investors funds, USERX and UNWPX, and you can open an IRA account with them to transfer your funds.

Watch the financial institutions for a sign of when the bottom comes.  Goldman Sachs and all the other banks got hammered today, a real nice present and a sort of FU for the new President from all the financial tools.

You can also play the downturn in the market by buying bearx. I will be buying put options, but I can't explain how I trade here, or how I read a chart.  There are lots of books on the subject, but you can probably get a better education on the markets by going to a free site, stockcharts.com. You can annotate your own charts there, and there is a section where other people who do technical analysis post their charts.  Some of them know what they're doing, and explain their set-ups.  There is also an index of trade patterns, these patterns often show you when to buy and sell. Leavittbrothers.com is a service where they talk about chart set-ups and will even do the work for you for a fee. IMO, they are pretty good chartists, and they can make you a lot of money if you take their advice.

The most important thing at times like this is to remember what is truly important, your health and your family and friends. I wish us all luck, we're going to need it!

Offline WayOutWest

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Re: OT - Now what?
« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2009, 12:48:25 AM »
My best guess is that the US in an attempt to hold things together will try to start a massive jobs program, spending public money on infrastructure and hopefully food production.

"hopefully"?  Obama already made the comment of putting 15 billion towards infrastructure.  I have not heard anything about "food production".

If you have any control over your 401k, see if you can move it out of the usual sectors and into gold mining companies and food companies.

Based on comments made by Obama regarding infrastructure spending you want to ignore the sector/companies who would benefit most from his comments?  Common sense tells me you are leaving out a critical sector. 
"History shouldn't be a mystery"
"Our story is real history"
"Not his story"

"My people's culture was strong, it was pure"
"And if not for that white greed"
"It would've endured"

"Laker hate causes blindness"

Offline WayOutWest

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Re: OT - Now what?
« Reply #3 on: January 21, 2009, 09:47:37 AM »
I finally got a chance to watch the actual swearing in of Obama and I was very disappointed.  The 2nd most historic presidential innaguration and they screw it up.  At first I thought Obama was nervous but it turns out his actions were exactly why I voted for the guy.  Obama actually immediately recognized that the judge made several mistakes and omissions.  Obama paused, gave it some thought, and made the appropriate corrections on the fly.  The whole time he was a cool as can be, just like I hope he will continue to do now that he is in office. 
"History shouldn't be a mystery"
"Our story is real history"
"Not his story"

"My people's culture was strong, it was pure"
"And if not for that white greed"
"It would've endured"

"Laker hate causes blindness"

Offline Ted

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Re: OT - Now what?
« Reply #4 on: January 21, 2009, 10:36:50 AM »
Today seemed just like any other day.  Traffic sucked, I lost thousands in my 401K, gas prices are rising, criminals in the streets, and I'm still losing my hair!  What the frog is this Obama guy doing?

I told you so. All you sheep following the pied piper. Gentiles following the false Messiah. (Dang, where's jemagee when you need him?)
"You take him Perk!" ~Kevin Garnett

"I think the responsibility the Democrats have may rest more in resisting any efforts by Republicans in the Congress or by me when I was President to put some standards in and tighten up a little bit on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." ~Bill Clinton

Offline Ted

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Re: OT - Now what?
« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2009, 10:43:31 AM »
You can also play the downturn in the market by buying bearx. I will be buying put options, but I can't explain how I trade here, or how I read a chart. 

I'll tell you what I'm buying. Food. Food storage and bullets.
"You take him Perk!" ~Kevin Garnett

"I think the responsibility the Democrats have may rest more in resisting any efforts by Republicans in the Congress or by me when I was President to put some standards in and tighten up a little bit on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." ~Bill Clinton

Offline rickortreat

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Re: OT - Now what?
« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2009, 10:51:58 AM »
My best guess is that the US in an attempt to hold things together will try to start a massive jobs program, spending public money on infrastructure and hopefully food production.

"hopefully"?  Obama already made the comment of putting 15 billion towards infrastructure.  I have not heard anything about "food production".

If you have any control over your 401k, see if you can move it out of the usual sectors and into gold mining companies and food companies.

Based on comments made by Obama regarding infrastructure spending you want to ignore the sector/companies who would benefit most from his comments?  Common sense tells me you are leaving out a critical sector. 

The difference is between what Obama wants and what Congress will actually do. And also, what the rest of the world's governments will decide to do.  Talk is one thing, actually acting and spending money is quite another.  For example, will Obama work with the current construction firms, many of which are foreign owned, or will he create new American firms to actually do the work? And, how much spending wil there really be and how soon?  Will it be enough to keep the steel industry in business?  Or the concrete or macadam producers?  We have to wait and see, and it's very hard to get accurate figures, meaning that there will be a lot of speculation about these things with no basis in reality and the possibility of quick reversals.

The markets are so volatile now, that a stock you should have shorted yesterday, would be a candidate to go long on today. You can't play that in a mutual fund.  Unless you want to spend all your time in front of a computer screen as a day trader, you can't take advantage of the volatility.  And it is not a market conducive to mutual funds unless you are willing to take a longer view and accept the absurd daily gyrations, meaning wild swings in your account values.

Offline westkoast

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Re: OT - Now what?
« Reply #7 on: January 21, 2009, 10:56:38 AM »
Today seemed just like any other day.  Traffic sucked, I lost thousands in my 401K, gas prices are rising, criminals in the streets, and I'm still losing my hair!  What the frog is this Obama guy doing?

I told you so. All you sheep following the pied piper. Gentiles following the false Messiah. (Dang, where's jemagee when you need him?)


How about this?  Everyone starts working together towards correcting mistakes to improve things.  I do find it strange that very well educated Republicans keep falling back on this 'messiah' card as some kind of jab.  I don't know if you personally feel this way or not but many people do in Orange County.  Maybe now they know how we all felt in 2004 when those same people put Bush back in the White House LOL

By the way, sheep need to follow the leader.  If they didn't we wouldn't have a need for government.  Sounds like maybe you are an Anarchist?  There is a very good movie by the name of SLC Punk and I wonder if it is based on a true story.  Hmm....

http://I-Really-Shouldn't-Put-A-Link-To-A-Blog-I-Dont-Even-Update.com

Offline WayOutWest

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Re: OT - Now what?
« Reply #8 on: January 21, 2009, 10:57:59 AM »
I'll tell you what I'm buying. Food. Food storage and bullets.

Same here, I'm in "LA Riot" mode.

"History shouldn't be a mystery"
"Our story is real history"
"Not his story"

"My people's culture was strong, it was pure"
"And if not for that white greed"
"It would've endured"

"Laker hate causes blindness"

Offline WayOutWest

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Re: OT - Now what?
« Reply #9 on: January 21, 2009, 11:00:40 AM »
The difference is between what Obama wants and what Congress will actually do. And also, what the rest of the world's governments will decide to do.  Talk is one thing, actually acting and spending money is quite another.  For example, will Obama work with the current construction firms, many of which are foreign owned, or will he create new American firms to actually do the work? And, how much spending wil there really be and how soon?  Will it be enough to keep the steel industry in business?  Or the concrete or macadam producers?  We have to wait and see, and it's very hard to get accurate figures, meaning that there will be a lot of speculation about these things with no basis in reality and the possibility of quick reversals.

The markets are so volatile now, that a stock you should have shorted yesterday, would be a candidate to go long on today. You can't play that in a mutual fund.  Unless you want to spend all your time in front of a computer screen as a day trader, you can't take advantage of the volatility.  And it is not a market conducive to mutual funds unless you are willing to take a longer view and accept the absurd daily gyrations, meaning wild swings in your account values.

Does not matter who does what or where since most, if not ALL, the infrastructure "material" has to come from US soil, that's what I've invested in.  It will come around and I expect the prices to double by the end of 09.
"History shouldn't be a mystery"
"Our story is real history"
"Not his story"

"My people's culture was strong, it was pure"
"And if not for that white greed"
"It would've endured"

"Laker hate causes blindness"

Offline WayOutWest

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Re: OT - Now what?
« Reply #10 on: January 21, 2009, 11:03:06 AM »
I do find it strange that very well educated Republicans keep falling back on this 'messiah' card as some kind of jab.

I hear that practically 100X times a day and I feel the same way, what a strange and DUMB argument.  I've been dumbing down my response to "better than the white devils".
"History shouldn't be a mystery"
"Our story is real history"
"Not his story"

"My people's culture was strong, it was pure"
"And if not for that white greed"
"It would've endured"

"Laker hate causes blindness"

Offline westkoast

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Re: OT - Now what?
« Reply #11 on: January 21, 2009, 11:06:49 AM »
Rick,

There are PLENTY of US owned construction firms in the US that work on our roads, bridges, and other infrastructure projects.  On top of that there are engineering consulting firms that are US owned that tend to do most of the design for some of our infrastructure.  When it comes to building water treatment plants, waste water treatment plants, and anything that falls under the states department of transportation that is mainly done by US owned construction firms.  I can't even think of a single foreign owned construction firm that I've seen who has worked on various projects I've been involved with directly or indirectly.

For example there is a number of highway projects in Utah that were (I say were because they've been partially stalled) done by two US owned construction firms.  Most of the design was sent out to US owned engineering consulting firms and the rest was done in house at UDOT.  Obama does not need to play business creator nor do I think we want him to.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2009, 11:08:24 AM by westkoast »
http://I-Really-Shouldn't-Put-A-Link-To-A-Blog-I-Dont-Even-Update.com

Offline Ted

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Re: OT - Now what?
« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2009, 11:12:41 AM »
How about this?  Everyone starts working together towards correcting mistakes to improve things.  I do find it strange that very well educated Republicans keep falling back on this 'messiah' card as some kind of jab.  I don't know if you personally feel this way or not but many people do in Orange County.  Maybe now they know how we all felt in 2004 when those same people put Bush back in the White House LOL

By the way, sheep need to follow the leader.  If they didn't we wouldn't have a need for government.  Sounds like maybe you are an Anarchist?  There is a very good movie by the name of SLC Punk and I wonder if it is based on a true story.  Hmm....

Holy shnikeys Koast!  ::)  You swallowed that hook, line and sinker. That was so obvious! Like a big shiny hook without any freakin bait!

I would hope my history here proves I'm more reasonable than that. He's been in office ONE DAY. And one other thing, no one on this board knows how I voted, except maybe my wetback compadre WoW, so don't rush to judgement. "For with what judgment ye judge, ye shall be judged: and with what measure ye mete, it shall be measured to you again."

Dan, did I get that right?
« Last Edit: January 21, 2009, 11:14:24 AM by Ted »
"You take him Perk!" ~Kevin Garnett

"I think the responsibility the Democrats have may rest more in resisting any efforts by Republicans in the Congress or by me when I was President to put some standards in and tighten up a little bit on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." ~Bill Clinton

Offline westkoast

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Re: OT - Now what?
« Reply #13 on: January 21, 2009, 11:15:21 AM »
How about this?  Everyone starts working together towards correcting mistakes to improve things.  I do find it strange that very well educated Republicans keep falling back on this 'messiah' card as some kind of jab.  I don't know if you personally feel this way or not but many people do in Orange County.  Maybe now they know how we all felt in 2004 when those same people put Bush back in the White House LOL

By the way, sheep need to follow the leader.  If they didn't we wouldn't have a need for government.  Sounds like maybe you are an Anarchist?  There is a very good movie by the name of SLC Punk and I wonder if it is based on a true story.  Hmm....

Holy shnikeys Koast!  ::)  You swallowed that hook, line and sinker. That was so obvious! Like a big shiny hook without any freakin bait!

I would hope my history here proves I'm more reasonable than that. He's been in office ONE DAY. And one other thing, no one on this board knows how I voted, except maybe by wetback compadre WoW, so don't rush to judgement. "For with what judgment ye judge, ye shall be judged: and with what measure ye mete, it shall be measured to you again."

Dan, did I get that right?

I didn't take the bait.  Clearly I said 'I don't know if you personally feel this way'  That doubt means I had a feeling you did not but based on what I honestly hear daily (Like W.O.W says 100x a day) I wasn't sure. 

No comment on SLC Punk...I knew this whole Mormon thing was an act.  Oi my friend, Oi!
http://I-Really-Shouldn't-Put-A-Link-To-A-Blog-I-Dont-Even-Update.com

Offline Ted

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Re: OT - Now what?
« Reply #14 on: January 21, 2009, 11:26:16 AM »
No comment on SLC Punk...I knew this whole Mormon thing was an act.  Oi my friend, Oi!

Never heard of it until you mentioned it. Just read a synopsis. Looks kind of interesting I guess. According to wikipedia, it was very loosely based on actual events.
"You take him Perk!" ~Kevin Garnett

"I think the responsibility the Democrats have may rest more in resisting any efforts by Republicans in the Congress or by me when I was President to put some standards in and tighten up a little bit on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac." ~Bill Clinton