Spurs predicted to miss the playoffs!

[WayOutWest]

I'm not into the number crunching that some of you guys are fond of but this articles seems to use the number crunching to determine the odds of a team making the playoffs.  Do the number crunchers agree?

PER Diem: Dec. 31, 2008
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com


Even with a healthy big three in San Antonio, the Spurs might have a hard time making the playoffs.

Checking out the Playoff Odds on Wednesday, there's a bit of a surprise out West.

According to Wednesday's simulations, the eight most likely playoff teams from that conference are the Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Hornets, Rockets, Jazz, Mavs and Suns.

You'll notice I didn't mention the Spurs. After Tuesday's 100-98 loss at home to Milwaukee, the Spurs project to finish ninth in the West with a 47-35 record. They're a lowly 14th in the Power Rankings -- more than a point behind No. 13 Dallas.

All this seems a bit odd just looking at the standings. San Antonio is 20-11, after all, with the third-best record in the West and just a half-game behind New Orleans in the Southwest Division race.

Intangible factors seem to be on the Spurs' side, too. They've compiled their record despite losing Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili for big chunks of time, and they have a history of rallying in the second half of the season after ho-hum starts.

However, the Playoff Odds and Power Rankings underscore this: San Antonio hasn't played nearly as well as its record. The Spurs already have played 18 home games, tied with Boston for most in the league. Also, their opponents' .469 winning percentage is the worst of any team in the West.

Moreover, the Spurs have been remarkably mediocre since Parker and Ginobili returned to the lineup. Their past 10 games include close shaves at home against Minnesota, Oklahoma City and Memphis, a home loss to the Bucks and a convincing defeat in Orlando.

As a result, the Playoff Odds project the Spurs to go just 27-24 in their final 51 games. This would be hugely disappointing from San Antonio's perspective, but its schedule is about to rise several notches in difficulty.

From Jan. 11 to March 4, the Spurs will play only eight of their 25 games at home. Of those eight, six are against high-caliber opponents: Orlando, Portland, Cleveland, the Lakers, Dallas and New Orleans. The other two games, against Indiana and New Jersey, aren't exactly gimmes, either.

And of the 17 road games, at least eight -- at L.A., Utah, Phoenix, Denver, Boston, Detroit, Portland and Dallas -- have to be considered likely or somewhat likely defeats. Of the 25 games, only two are against the bottom six teams in the West, and both are on the road.

Thus, the Spurs' position isn't nearly as strong as it appears in the standings. The Spurs aren't playing real well, and they'll get absolutely bushwhacked by the schedule if they don't start playing better real soon.

[Ted]

So who's the big star coming out of the college ranks that the Spurs will miraculously win the lottery for this year?

Sternfish and his collusionist allies in San Antonio will not let Spurs miss the playoffs, unless a #1 pick is in the offing.

[westkoast]

If basketball was just numbers then I would worry if I were a Spurs fan.  Injuries to players on other playoff bound squads is going to happen and could potentially send a team into a few game skid.   

Aside from that they always finish very strong down the stretch.  Teams like Portland have to prove they can finish the regular season off strong.  The Rockets could slide as well.  If Tracy McGrady and/or Yao Ming go down again this year they are going to be in bad shape in the West.

[SPURSX3]

So who's the big star coming out of the college ranks that the Spurs will miraculously win the lottery for this year?

Sternfish and his collusionist allies in San Antonio will not let Spurs miss the playoffs, unless a #1 pick is in the offing.

I don't see us missing the playoffs, seems the Spurs always get picked for the worst case scenario and yet somehow manage to go above what was expected of them.  I still think 3rd or 4th seed.  Although if we did NOT make the playoffs, it would certainly have to be because the next franchise player is coming out this summer  j/k 

[WayOutWest]

I think the "strength of schedule" factor is off.  Yes Sternfish gave the Spurs and Celtics the easiest schedule in the league, but the fact that the Spurs did not take advantage of that gift is because of the injuries to TP and Manu.  You can't hold that against them.  On the flip, the fact that their schedule is going to get tougher should not bother the Spurs since they are better than most off those "tough" teams when they are healthy anyways.

I still think the Spurs will get HC in the first round.

[Joe Vancil]

The Spurs are fine.  There's no way they're missing the playoffs.

I'm not a believer that Denver is as good as their record.  I'm not all that high on Dallas, although in the game I saw, I really liked the look of Barea, especially when playing alongside of Kidd and Terry, but they still have a long way to go to solidify their interior defense and their rebounding.  Houston is one Artest break-down from...well, BREAKDOWN.  If Roy goes down, someone in Portland will have to step up big time.  Ditto for New Orleans and Chris Paul.  Utah's currently in *9th*, losing home games and looking dreadful on the road.  And Phoenix has trouble brewing in the locker room.

San An is as close to a lock for the playoffs in the West as there is - except for that one OTHER current playoff team out West that didn't get mentioned above.

[Reality]

San Antonio didn't get Ginobili, Parker and Tim Duncan on the court together until Nov. 28, and it's won 14 of 19 games since to move atop its highly competitive division.

[westkoast]

Melo likely has a broken hand so........yea just like I figured, it is a long season.  Injuries happen and teams slip. Spurs are fine.

[WayOutWest]

Melo likely has a broken hand so........yea just like I figured, it is a long season.  Injuries happen and teams slip. Spurs are fine.

I didn't think the Spurs would have a problem making the playoffs, in fact I called HC for them in the first round.  IMO the biggest problem for the Spurs is going to be Duncan.  With useless stiffs like Flabs Obencho and not much from Bonner, I think TD is going to have to work too hard to keep the Spurs on par with good front courts like the Lakers, Jazz and -gasp- Suns.  I think those teams are going to beat up on TD and he's not going to come out of it too well.  TD can not dominate an entire teams front court like he used to, he needs help and so far he's not getting it.  As far as the back court goes the Spurs are just fine, in fact they are better than almost everyone in the WC.  It's TD and the stiffs that are going to be challenged.

[SPURSX3]

Melo likely has a broken hand so........yea just like I figured, it is a long season.  Injuries happen and teams slip. Spurs are fine.

I didn't think the Spurs would have a problem making the playoffs, in fact I called HC for them in the first round.  IMO the biggest problem for the Spurs is going to be Duncan.  With useless stiffs like Flabs Obencho and not much from Bonner, I think TD is going to have to work too hard to keep the Spurs on par with good front courts like the Lakers, Jazz and -gasp- Suns.  I think those teams are going to beat up on TD and he's not going to come out of it too well.  TD can not dominate an entire teams front court like he used to, he needs help and so far he's not getting it.  As far as the back court goes the Spurs are just fine, in fact they are better than almost everyone in the WC.  It's TD and the stiffs that are going to be challenged.

Remember the SNL skits about "Da Bears" or "Da Bulls."    "Mini-Duncan vs The Suns, mini-Duncan Tree-hundered, eighty- six (386),  Suns Foretee-two (42).  Mini-Duncan Dominates."  Seriously though, The Spurs can get to the second round of the playoffs, I can't see them getting past that at this point.  but who knows, they are starting to surge, and Manu looks like he is getting back into form finally.  That block on Wade last night was just sick. 

[WayOutWest]

Remember the SNL skits about "Da Bears" or "Da Bulls."    "Mini-Duncan vs The Suns, mini-Duncan Tree-hundered, eighty- six (386),  Suns Foretee-two (42).  Mini-Duncan Dominates."  Seriously though, The Spurs can get to the second round of the playoffs, I can't see them getting past that at this point.  but who knows, they are starting to surge, and Manu looks like he is getting back into form finally.  That block on Wade last night was just sick. 

Do you really think TD has enough help to handle the likes of the Lakers/Suns/Jazz/Rockets on the boards and in the paint?

[SPURSX3]

Remember the SNL skits about "Da Bears" or "Da Bulls."    "Mini-Duncan vs The Suns, mini-Duncan Tree-hundered, eighty- six (386),  Suns Foretee-two (42).  Mini-Duncan Dominates."  Seriously though, The Spurs can get to the second round of the playoffs, I can't see them getting past that at this point.  but who knows, they are starting to surge, and Manu looks like he is getting back into form finally.  That block on Wade last night was just sick. 

Do you really think TD has enough help to handle the likes of the Lakers/Suns/Jazz/Rockets on the boards and in the paint?

Suns = yes
Jazz = maybe, they can be tough in the playoffs
Houston =  come on, mcgrady has never gotten out of the first round, so yes, we can handle them
Lakers = no, I see LA taking the west this year

[WayOutWest]

Suns = yes
Jazz = maybe, they can be tough in the playoffs
Houston =  come on, mcgrady has never gotten out of the first round, so yes, we can handle them
Lakers = no, I see LA taking the west this year

You really think TD and <insert stiff name here> can handle Shaq and Amare?

[SPURSX3]

Suns = yes
Jazz = maybe, they can be tough in the playoffs
Houston =  come on, mcgrady has never gotten out of the first round, so yes, we can handle them
Lakers = no, I see LA taking the west this year

You really think TD and <insert stiff name here> can handle Shaq and Amare?

Is there really that big a difference with the suns from last year???  Yeah I think we can handle the suns in a series, we just did it last year, shaq is only older, and amare has yet to change, IMO.

[westkoast]

Suns = yes
Jazz = maybe, they can be tough in the playoffs
Houston =  come on, mcgrady has never gotten out of the first round, so yes, we can handle them
Lakers = no, I see LA taking the west this year

You really think TD and <insert stiff name here> can handle Shaq and Amare?

Is there really that big a difference with the suns from last year???  Yeah I think we can handle the suns in a series, we just did it last year, shaq is only older, and amare has yet to change, IMO.

Don't forget that Shaq has had to take on quite a heavy load for this squad for the past few weeks AND has been playing hard since the pre-season.  Not exactly something you've seen from him in 3 years.

I don't think the question is can TD handle Shaq as much as it is will Shaq have enough gas in the tank to handle TD.