Grace period for the Phillies is over

[DuckyNinja]

But what if they take the, say 10 million saved here that we don't spend to replace them by buying a top prospect or two in the draft?  Then will you applaud them for saving the money here and spending it on improving the farm?

[jemagee]

But what if they take the, say 10 million saved here that we don't spend to replace them by buying a top prospect or two in the draft?  Then will you applaud them for saving the money here and spending it on improving the farm?

God I hate comments like this - you know why - it ignores the entire history of the phillies and the draft and it reeks of pipe dreams and hope - pay attention to what the phillies have done in the past and don't expect them to suddenly change mid stream...this is a cost saving move plain and simple - much like trading abreu was a cost saving move plain and simple - everyone said 'oh the phillies will use the money they save (ONE FRACKING YEARS SAVINGS) by trading abreu for bubkis - but they didn't.

Those who ignore history are doomed to be delusional that the phillies might suddenly change ships.

Did I mention that the quality architect of their minor league system is now in Kansas City and the new GM is a puppet

[bebopdeluxe]

Listened to Buster Olney on 950ESPN earlier today...his comments seem to dovetail with comments made by Peter Gammons on Wednesday...an absolute glut of corner OF's, which - when combined with the decline in the stock market, horrible economy and the real concern my many teams about ticket sale and revenue next season - is leading to what looks like an absolute buyer's market at that position in FA.

Looks like the Phillies absolutely made the right call in not offering arbitration to Burrell.  He would have gotten $16 million EASY...and he may actually wind up signing for close to half of that number.  We may get a chance to see how much Burrell wants to stay in Philly...and whether the Phils would be willing to pull the trigger on, say, a 2 year, $17-20 million contract to keep him.

[jemagee]

is leading to what looks like an absolute buyer's market at that position in FA.

Not one of them has the numbers against lefties that pat burrell can put up

[bebopdeluxe]

OK, jem...for the record:

What do you expect Burrell's contract to be?

Excluding team or player options, I say no more than 2 years, $23 million guaranteed...or one year, $11 million.

[jemagee]

I expect Burrell to be on another team next year - that's what I expect - i also think he's a 10-5 guy if he re-signs with the phillies next year, but I could be wrong about that

[bebopdeluxe]

Nice dodge, bro.

I told you what I think the economics of his deal will be - regardless of team.  What do you think they will be?

[jemagee]

I told you what I think the economics of his deal will be - regardless of team.  What do you think they will be?

I have no idea because it only takes two teams for a contract to get completely out of control...and no outfielder is probably going to sign until manny signs - and then what GMs are panicing - it's simplistic to say 'economy bad, contracts down' it ignores so many factors it's pointless to make a prediction.

Here's what I'm sure of - and frankly i don't give a frack about contract size:

WHoever plays left field for the phillies next year, if not pat burrelll, individual or platoon, will not be as good as pat burrell performs for another team, assuming pat stays healthy

[Derek Bodner]

question for you, bro.

(sorry, had to)

What do you think is more likely:
- Burrell re-signs here for $11 million per
- Another team signs Burrell.

The odds of Burrell accepting arbitration is very, very small.  He wants years as much as anything else.  If we offered him arbitration, we do two things.  We get 2 draft picks if he leaves, and we gain leverage on him and decrease the chances of him getting a bigger deal elsewhere.

It's a win-win.

The only reason not to offer him arbitration (and really, getting Burrell to "agree" to a 1 year contract, which is what him accepting arbitration would be, is a great thing, as the biggest worry about Burrell is NOT next year, but if he gets a 3 year deal and isn't able to physically hold up) is if you think $15 million is absolutely going to brake the bank.  In which case, the Phillies should just stop trying.  Gillick had the right frame of mind.  More worried about years than short term dollars.

[bebopdeluxe]

dabods:

It was my belief that one of the key reasons why the Phillies did not offer arbitration to Moyer and Burrell was they did not want to get locked into numbers that (based on how the FA market sounds like it is shaping up) would be potentially much higher than what these guys will see on the open market...so...

At the risk of sounding like an idiot (which I frequently do), can the Phillies still offer Burrell arbitration?

Thanks, bro...

 

[DuckyNinja]

D-Bods, is it win-win if he would get 1/15 in arbitration and wasn't getting offered more than 2/22 on the open market?

[jemagee]

At the risk of sounding like an idiot (which I frequently do), can the Phillies still offer Burrell arbitration?

No

[tk76-]

But I assume they can still resign him, right?  The odds are pretty slim though.

[jemagee]

But I assume they can still resign him, right?  The odds are pretty slim though.

Yes they ccan resign him - it used to be if you didn't offer arbitration you coudn't sign them until like the end of april or may - but that rule was eliminated and they can sign him at any time - but they've also made it EASIER for other teams to sign burrell.  Instead of having to give up cash and TWO draft picks, now all teams have to do is give up cash - which makes him a much more attractive free agent (another stupid move phiils)...I think for 2 years with a team option for a 3rd pat burrell is probably the second best outfield free agent after manny...and it's possible the phils could have offered arbitration and still gotten him at 2 for 22/24 because no one else wanted to give up the picks -and pat has always shown loyalty to philadlephia (even though the fans as a whole have treated him like crap)

[tk76-]

I understand the whole picks thing, but what are the chances Burrell would have turned down arbitraction? 

It has sounded like the team wasnt to go in a different direction, and its hard to assume a player will turn down arbitration.