NBA related Web Weirdness

[westkoast]

My response was simply in response to wk being incredulous that someone would be so excited about the guy, and asking what has he done.  My point is, he has done a heck of a lot after 1 year in NCAA and one year in the NBA.  In fact you could argue that he has done just about everything you could ask someone to do. 

I disagree.  Especially when you realize the team is even worse this year then they were last year.  Durant has not done anything in the NBA to warrant someone making a site like that I M O.  Even if he had talent around him he is more Caron Butler then Dwayne Wade.  Again, I think he is going to be a good player but he's not a super star.   You are a fan, we get it.

Btw that year that Dwayne did his thing in the playoffs Shaq WAS NOT there.  That was his rookie year (to explain my point of showing brilliance right away) When he was overlooked for ROY but ended up being the better performer in the playoffs taking his team to a long series in the 2nd round.  Shaq did not show up until after.  Wasn't quite sure why the Shaq reference kept being used.  Durant has yet to show brilliance like Lebron, CP3 or Wade so I disagree with someone trying to put him on that level.  Honestly he is putting up similar numbers to OJ Mayo.  Should I make a petition to get him out of Memphis and back to a market similar to the one he played in for college ball??  I think it would be kind of lame to do so.  Would you agree?

[Derek Bodner]

Should I make a petition to get him out of Memphis and back to a market similar to the one he played in for college ball??  I think it would be kind of lame to do so.  Would you agree?

I think the website is more in the vein of mocking OKC and the Thunder franchise than hyping up Durant.

[Skandery]

I was very excited about Durant coming into the pros, but have been dissappointed with the lack of diverse contribution to this point. 

At 6'9, he hauls in 4 or so rebounds?!?  He's tall, lanky, and athletically gifted, yet isn't active enough to average more than a steal or a block every other game.  He's very turnover prone and has no real desire to pass the ball. (I know, who would want to with the supporting cast) 

From seeing some highlights, some games, and the stats; he looks a heck of a lot like the next Glenn Robinson, actually the comparison so far is startingly accurate.  We'll see what happens now that they've fired his awful coach, and if'n'when they ever get him some help.  So far its not looking good for Durant being anything but a scoring specialist.  He is young, though?

[westkoast]

Should I make a petition to get him out of Memphis and back to a market similar to the one he played in for college ball??  I think it would be kind of lame to do so.  Would you agree?

I think the website is more in the vein of mocking OKC and the Thunder franchise than hyping up Durant.

Maybe you are right.  Though the reason I brought it up is because of that countdown ticker they had when Durant can leave to a bigger market. Could easily be fans that think the franchise is so horrible the only thing worth salvaging is one player (Durant).

[jemagee]

So the new coach supposedly will be moving Durant to a more natural NBA position.

[WayOutWest]

Durant is a tough one to peg.  IMO he's more versatile than Big Dog, different body type as well.  He reminds me of Alex English. 

IMO Durant should be a 3, a lot less D is required guarding a 3 vs a 2 and he won't get beat up at the 4 spot.  I don't see Durant as an all-star, he's just a bulk scorer who's mentality is to just come play and never really leave it all on the court.  Who knows, maybe Durant can grow into an NBA type "killa" like James Worthy did, Big Game James was a wilting flower when the games got tough, it wasn't until 1987 that he STARTED to become Big Game James on the road to go along with his impressive home court play.

[Lurker]

Durant is a tough one to peg.  IMO he's more versatile than Big Dog, different body type as well.  He reminds me of Alex English. 

IMO Durant should be a 3, a lot less D is required guarding a 3 vs a 2 and he won't get beat up at the 4 spot.  I don't see Durant as an all-star, he's just a bulk scorer who's mentality is to just come play and never really leave it all on the court.  Who knows, maybe Durant can grow into an NBA type "killa" like James Worthy did, Big Game James was a wilting flower when the games got tough, it wasn't until 1987 that he STARTED to become Big Game James on the road to go along with his impressive home court play.

He could develop like Worthy...but then who will be the Magic & Kareem for him?

[westkoast]

Durant is a tough one to peg.  IMO he's more versatile than Big Dog, different body type as well.  He reminds me of Alex English. 

IMO Durant should be a 3, a lot less D is required guarding a 3 vs a 2 and he won't get beat up at the 4 spot.  I don't see Durant as an all-star, he's just a bulk scorer who's mentality is to just come play and never really leave it all on the court.  Who knows, maybe Durant can grow into an NBA type "killa" like James Worthy did, Big Game James was a wilting flower when the games got tough, it wasn't until 1987 that he STARTED to become Big Game James on the road to go along with his impressive home court play.

He could develop like Worthy...but then who will be the Magic & Kareem for him?

Earl Watson?

[WayOutWest]

He could develop like Worthy...but then who will be the Magic & Kareem for him?

He doesn't need a Magic or Kareem, he needs a Micheal Cooper to toughen him up, just like he did for B Scott.

[Lurker]

He could develop like Worthy...but then who will be the Magic & Kareem for him?

He doesn't need a Magic or Kareem, he needs a Micheal Cooper to toughen him up, just like he did for B Scott.

No, he needs two additional all stars.  Except for LeBron all of the comparisons are with players that had another all star caliber player to help relieve pressure from the youngster.  This doesn't mean he would develop into a stronger player but as someone said above...switch him and Young then see how he develops.

[WayOutWest]

He could develop like Worthy...but then who will be the Magic & Kareem for him?

He doesn't need a Magic or Kareem, he needs a Micheal Cooper to toughen him up, just like he did for B Scott.

No, he needs two additional all stars.  Except for LeBron all of the comparisons are with players that had another all star caliber player to help relieve pressure from the youngster.  This doesn't mean he would develop into a stronger player but as someone said above...switch him and Young then see how he develops.

You could put Kobe, LeBron, Dwight and Duncan on his team and it wouldn't make him a "killa".  My post about his improvement was specifically about his mental "toughness".

[Wolverine]

I wasn't all on the guy's nuts when he came out of college, but I was shocked to see the Sonics/Thunder start him at the 2.  He doesn't have the ball-handling or jump shot to be successful at that position, and I don't think there's any question that's hurt his development.

That said, I watched him in college (Big 12 country) and he was never a good defender, even at that level.  To me, he demonstrates a severe lack of interest on that side of the ball.  Just doesn't seem to care.

I'm in agreement with Miguel ... I think you have to start him at the 3.  Unless you plan on playing a Phoenix/New York-style game, he's not going to be able to handle the 4 (although even in that type of system, I think his defense and lack of rebounding hurt you.)  But for crying out loud, get him off the 2.

[ziggy]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=320

Kevin Durant, Alpha Dogs, and Supporting Casts

Posted by Neil Paine on November 21, 2008

Last week, Wages of Wins author David Berri posted about the Oklahoma City Thunder over at the WoW Journal, pointing out that Kevin Durant and his teammates are having really a terrible offensive season in 2008-09 (something which, frankly, cannot be debated ? OKC ranks dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, and by a pretty wide margin). In turn, Berri?s post sparked a discussion at APBRmetrics regarding just how much of the Thunder?s offensive woes are Durant?s fault (his 94.5 ORtg is pretty abysmal) and how much of the blame falls to his lackluster supporting cast. The argument that ensued was fairly circular: is Durant playing inefficient basketball because his team is bad (and he is forced to take on a huge role he?s perhaps not ready for yet), or is Durant?s team bad because he?s playing inefficient basketball? Or both?

Out of all this, our esteemed colleague Kevin Pelton (of Basketball Prospectus) posed the following question:

    If we take out each team?s leading scorer, who has played with supporting casts comparably bad to the one employed by the Thunder, especially so early in their career?

Well, that?s a question we can at least attempt to answer objectively. First, let?s classify the ?leading scorer? of a team as the player who consumed the most possessions ? this is preferable to taking the leading scorer because straight-up points account for both usage and efficiency, and here we?re interested in identifying the team?s offensive ?alpha dog? regardless of how well he actually produced points. Then let?s calculate the cumulative offensive rating for his teammates, which should give us a rough estimate of his supporting cast?s offensive ability.

This season, the Thunder have scored 1076 points on 1148 possessions (through Nov. 20); Durant has produced approximately 211 of those points and has used roughly 224 of those possessions by himself. That means his teammates have combined for an offensive rating of 93.6, which is really bad by the way. Last year, Durant?s Seattle teammates produced an ORtg of 101.3 ? better, but still not good at all. So, the question is, which ?alpha dogs? have had to put up with similarly inept teammates in the past? Have they been as inefficient as Durant? And has anyone so young (KD is 20 this season) had to carry such a terrible supporting cast?

Here?s every ?alpha dog? whose teammates posted an offensive rating roughly as low as Durant?s fellow Thunderites in ?08-09, sorted by the differential between their individual ORtg and that of their awful teammates:


Year    Team    Player          Age     ORtg    t_ORtg  Diff
2002    MIA     Eddie Jones     30      109.2   97.1    12.2
2000    CHI     Elton Brand     20      104.2   92.8    11.4
1993    DAL     Derek Harper    31      109.2   97.9    11.3
2002    MEM     Pau Gasol       21      107.6   96.6    11.0
2003    DEN     Juwan Howard    29      101.6   91.0    10.6
1983    WSB     Jeff Ruland     24      107.4   96.9    10.5
2001    GSW     Antawn Jamison  24      104.4   96.1     8.2
1983    HOU     Allen Leavell   25      102.8   95.6     7.2
2001    ATL     Jason Terry     23      104.8   97.8     7.0
2001    CHI     Elton Brand     21      103.3   96.7     6.7
1999    VAN     S. Abdur-Rahim  22      104.2   97.5     6.6
1999    CHI     Toni Kukoc      30      98.7    92.1     6.6
1988    LAC     Mike Woodson    29      102.3   96.7     5.7
1981    DET     Phil Hubbard    24      102.7   97.4     5.3
1979    NJN     Bernard King    22      101.7   96.8     5.0
1978    NJN     Bernard King    21      98.0    93.7     4.3
1998    GSW     D. Marshall     24      99.6    95.7     3.9
2003    MIA     Caron Butler    22      99.2    97.1     2.1
2004    CHI     Jamal Crawford  23      99.0    96.9     2.1
2004    TOR     Vince Carter    27      99.4    97.3     2.1

As you can see, despite their horrendous supporting casts, most of these players managed to rise above their teammates and post reasonable efficiency numbers. In fact, many of them did it at an age not significantly older than Durant (while one of the major points made in KD?s defense is his youth). So it?s not like it?s unprecedented to expect Durant to perform more efficiently than he has so far this season.

However, the good news for Durant is that he?s not your ordinary ?alpha dog? ? he?s more like a super-mega-alpha dog, taking on about 29% of OKC?s possessions when he?s on the court. By contrast, most of these guys, while leading their respective squads in possessions, were only expected to create on 25% of the team?s possessions (or fewer). So Durant deserves a little leeway when we evaluate his efficiency numbers, because he?s being asked to do more, at a younger age, than most of the guys on this list.

Even so, Durant?s early returns aren?t exactly those of a future megastar; no alpha dog in the past has had such horrible teammates and still played down to their level in terms of efficiency. Durant still may very well develop into a solid player, but if the history of similar players (alpha dogs saddled with poor teammates) is any indication, it?s doubtful he?ll live up to the considerable hype that surrounded him when he first came out of college.

[ziggy]

A follow up to the previous article
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=333#more-333

Offensive Quality of Teammates

Posted by Neil Paine on November 22, 2008

Friday?s post about Kevin Durant and the terrible supporting cast he has on the Thunder got me thinking about going one step further and measuring the quality of one?s teammates in a talent sense. The offensive rating-based method we used the other day is good for evaluating short-term strategy decisions ? for instance, if a certain player is significantly less efficient than his teammates (think Bonzi Wells on the 2003 Blazers), it?s valuable as a decision-maker to recognize this and be able to tell that player to, you know, chill out with the shooting and such? However, it?s not quite ideal for identifying teammates? talent levels over a period of time, because efficiency is only half of the puzzle; a player?s usage is also determined by his talent level, but that?s not accounted for when you look at ORtg alone.

Fortunately, we?re not limited to using just offensive ratings when we measure the quality of one?s teammates. We can also look at Offensive Win Shares, which effectively combine both usage and efficiency into a single number that can be evaluated on a per-minute basis. This is less informative at the short term decision-making level because it doesn?t tell you about teammate fit, etc., but it?s great for establishing the talent level of a player?s teammates over the course of multiple seasons (or even an entire career).

Which begs the question: historically, which players have had the luxury of playing with the most talented teammates? Weighting each teammate?s career OWS/3000 minutes by the amount of playing time spent alongside those teammates, here are the most fortunate NBA players from 1973-74 to 2007-08, in terms of terrific supporting casts (minimum 15000 career MP):

Player          Minutes OWS     OWS/3K  Tm_OWS/3K
Michael Cooper  23635   27.98   3.55    5.36
Bryon Russell   19804   23.52   3.56    5.02
James Worthy    30001   51.27   5.13    4.78
Jamaal Wilkes   27275   44.02   4.84    4.68
Mark Eaton      25169   -3.49  -0.42    4.65
John Paxson     17257   25.25   4.39    4.64
Kurt Rambis     16299   14.14   2.60    4.61
Norm Nixon      27250   31.13   3.43    4.61
T.R. Dunn       23080   19.22   2.50    4.56
Byron Scott     30153   46.28   4.60    4.55
Mike Gale       17090    7.38   1.30    4.46
Rik Smits       23100   29.67   3.85    4.45
Magic Johnson   33245  110.52   9.97    4.42
A.C. Green      36552   58.03   4.76    4.40
Scottie Pippen  41069   56.73   4.14    4.39
Sam Perkins     36598   61.55   5.05    4.37
Derek Fisher    22244   25.08   3.38    4.34
Danny Ainge     27755   45.75   4.94    4.32
Michael Finley  34952   55.69   4.78    4.28
David Thompson  19406   51.44   7.95    4.26

Many Showtime-era Lakers grace the list (including Magic himself), and in general it?s a pretty cool mix of really good offensive players (Pippen, Worthy, Thompson, etc.), really bad ones (Eaton, Gale, Dunn), and everything in between. Michael Cooper, for instance, never once missed the playoffs during his 12-year NBA career, but we can see here that it had a lot more to do with his supporting cast than his own talents.

At the other end of the spectrum, here are those weary, long-suffering players saddled with the least talented offensive supporting casts over the course of their careers:

Player          Minutes OWS     OWS/3K  Tm_OWS/3K
Charles Smith   16378   17.97   3.29    2.20
Ken Norman      18992    8.92   1.41    2.20
Bernard King    29417   49.11   5.01    2.29
Pete Maravich   15999   17.51   3.28    2.30
Otis Birdsong   21627   28.98   4.02    2.41
Paul Westphal   20465   44.75   6.56    2.55
Paul Pierce     27490   58.55   6.39    2.58
Fred Brown      21743   38.05   5.25    2.61
Reggie Williams 16013    8.63   1.62    2.63
John Drew       21828   44.07   6.06    2.65
Rory Sparrow    22550    9.92   1.32    2.66
Greg Ballard    22073   23.84   3.24    2.66
Kevin Porter    17890   18.97   3.18    2.67
Kenny Anderson  25868   36.56   4.24    2.67
Austin Carr     15024   18.29   3.65    2.67
Kevin Edwards   15332   -1.78  -0.35    2.68
Harvey Grant    20510   16.63   2.43    2.70
Wes Unseld      20468   25.69   3.77    2.71
Grant Long      28514   26.74   2.81    2.71
Benoit Benjamin 21911    3.24   0.44    2.72

You have to feel for players like Bernard King, who frequently found himself carrying more than a few abysmal offenses throughout his career. The same goes for Paul Pierce ? until 2008, that is. Before the Big 3 was formed, Boston ranked in the top 14 in offensive efficiency just once (2004-05) during P-Double?s stay in the Hub. On the other hand, you have guys like Norman and Edwards, who were right at home with their untalented mates.

On a related note, here are the players who rose above their teammates the most during their careers:

Player           Minutes  OWS     OWS/3K Tm_OWS/3K Diff
Michael Jordan   41013   146.04   10.68    3.27    7.41
Adrian Dantley   34151   111.27    9.77    3.18    6.59
Dirk Nowitzki    27644    91.47    9.93    3.83    6.10
Magic Johnson    33245   110.52    9.97    4.42    5.55
Charles Barkley  39330   122.30    9.33    3.81    5.52
Steve Nash       26528    84.46    9.55    4.11    5.44
Reggie Miller    47621   138.82    8.75    3.35    5.40
Kobe Bryant      31572    91.88    8.73    3.56    5.17
John Stockton    47764   141.01    8.86    3.76    5.10
David Robinson   34271    97.65    8.55    3.46    5.08
LeBron James     16088    42.29    7.89    2.81    5.08
Shaquille O'Neal 37674   109.00    8.68    3.62    5.06
Chauncey Billups 24087    65.74    8.19    3.29    4.89
Kevin Johnson    25061    72.34    8.66    4.04    4.62
Sidney Moncrief  23150    60.46    7.84    3.33    4.50
Dan Issel        31409    89.06    8.51    4.03    4.48
Kiki Vandeweghe  24521    69.99    8.56    4.09    4.47
Bob Lanier       23844    57.58    7.24    2.77    4.47
Michael Redd     17506    44.91    7.70    3.23    4.47
Ray Allen        32223    84.41    7.86    3.58    4.28

MJ owns, as usual, but how good was Magic Johnson ? he appeared on our list of ?best supporting casts? and still rose high above them. That?s impressive. Conversely, LBJ and Bob Lanier both managed to average more than 7.0 OWS/3000 minutes despite ranking among the bottom 32 all-time in ?teammate talent?. Needless to say, LeBron may be leaving that group soon; it?s safe to assume that his supporting cast nowadays is a wee bit better than the days when he was lining up alongside Ira Newble.

And you know that this post wouldn?t be complete without a list of the players who didn?t exactly size up when compared to their teammates:

Player           Minutes OWS    OWS/3K Tm_OWS/3K  Diff
Mark Eaton       25169  -3.49   -0.42    4.65    -5.07
Darrell Griffith 21403   1.30    0.18    4.22    -4.04
Quinn Buckner    16245   1.38    0.25    4.07    -3.81
Gar Heard        15493  -1.23   -0.24    3.42    -3.66
Brian Shaw       21665   3.47    0.48    4.10    -3.62
Chris Dudley     16321  -1.40   -0.26    3.24    -3.49
Herb Williams    28484  -1.18   -0.12    3.36    -3.48
Mike Gale        17090   7.38    1.30    4.46    -3.17
Lionel Hollins   18453   1.99    0.32    3.46    -3.13
Kevin Edwards    15332  -1.78   -0.35    2.68    -3.03
George Johnson   17753   1.51    0.26    3.22    -2.96
Bruce Bowen      22547   8.92    1.19    4.11    -2.92
Antoine Walker   31531   5.98    0.57    3.47    -2.90
Alton Lister     18965   5.42    0.86    3.73    -2.88
LaSalle Thompson 21238   8.18    1.16    3.91    -2.76
John Bagley      17120   2.83    0.50    3.24    -2.74
Jon Koncak       16409   6.02    1.10    3.83    -2.73
Kevin Duckworth  17462   6.89    1.18    3.89    -2.71
Vernon Maxwell   24309   7.28    0.90    3.58    -2.68
Howard Eisley    16011   8.39    1.57    4.25    -2.67

There are lots of big men and defensive specialists up and down that list, plus one name which may (or may not) surprise you: Antoine Walker. ?Toine was once an ?alpha dog? himself on the Celtics, and he?s played with some of the best ballers in the business ? Paul Pierce, Dwyane Wade, Shaquille O?Neal, etc. ? but his often-abominable shot selection (particularly his penchant for hoisting bricks from the outside) leaves him with a career offensive rating of 97 and just 6 OWS in 12 seasons. As a result, fairly or unfairly, Win Shares considers Walker?s offensive value to be greatly inferior to that of his teammates over the course of his career.