Can't hate the phillies

[Derek Bodner]

Outman's not the reason I cared.

Was Blanton's outing the other night all that substantially better than the 12 and 2/3'rds innings Happy gave us in his starts down the stretch, with a 1.41 ERA in those september starts?

I mean, since we're going on such a small sample size.

(In Happ's 4 starts this year, had a 2.28 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a .188 BAA btw).

Do I know Happ couldn't have given us a 4.20 ERA if asked to give us 13 starts instead of 4?  No, not really.  And when you trade a top 3 position prospect (Cardenas, not Outman), you had better be damned sure.

People always complain that we don't have enough high level talents in our farm system to pursue guys like Sabathia.  Well, trading away your top prospects (in a system that by all accounts already lacks depth) for #4/#5 type pitchers only makes that problem worse. 

Blanton's also not a sure thing for a 4.20 ERA, in fact as I said, I believe he got a little bit of a  bump by changing leagues, as pitchers often do their first time being seen by teams.  He's never had back to back years below a 4.8 ERA.  That's troublesome.

[bebopdeluxe]

dabods:

While Happ's last start was certainly a solid one, I think that it may have been asking a lot to expect him to take Eaton's spot in a pennant race...and the reality is we needed BOTH Happ and Blanton down the stretch...right?

I agree that Cardenas was a key guy in the deal, but I don't see how Cardenas was going to get us a Sabathia/Harden-like guy at the deadline...the going rate for top-of-the-rotation guys (a pitcher above Blanton's caliber) was not something that we were going to do (because we weren't going to move Marson or Carrasco).  To me, trading Cardenas and Outman (guys who were either blocked by guys on the big club - Cardenas - or guys where we had other options - Outman, because we have Carrasco, Savery and Happ) was a reasonable deal for a #3/4 starter who could eat innings and keep us in games - something that Eaton or Kendrick couldn't do.

Now, if Blanton gives us Eaton-like results over the next two years, then it was a bad deal, IMO...but I still believe that we are not in this position this year (with a realistic chance for a WS title) without the trade for Blanton.  And even if he pitches to a 4.50 ERA, as a #4 starter, with this offense, I still think he wins 13-15 games for us.

[jemagee]

Please to take a look at the red sox as to the reason to have a STRONG and STACKED minor league system, it's not just about trades folks...the 4 best phillies are home grown, the catcher of the future is homegrown (and the second best catcher in the phils organization is also homegrown, ruiz is like 3rd or fourth)...

People just take the short view and over rate the short term performance of Blanton.

ANd seriously, if you want to look at the TEAMS won loss record when the guy pitches as an indicator of the pitchers import, that's just a flaw of reasoning.  I mean, what's next, saying Francisco Rodriguez is really worth 50 million dollars?

[jemagee]

Here's an abstract question.

Should a franchise with a weak minor league system trade two of their best prospects for a #4 pitcher?

[bebopdeluxe]

Here's a straight-forward question:

Do you want your team to make aggressive, in-season moves to try to win a championship?

Here's another question:

If the Phillies did not trade for Blanton, would they have made the playoffs this season?

And another question:

What other deal could the Phillies have done to bring a #4 major-league quality starter at the deadline for less than what they traded?

[jemagee]

Well They could have signed kyle lohse to a one year deal like the cardinals did - lohse was pitching for a contract and according to some pitched pretty well

I want my team to make SMART moves, I don't want my team to OVER PAY for a mediocre league average player...there are smart moves that are aggresive and then there are not so smart moves that are aggressive, you can be aggressive without being stupid or DESPERATE.

If the Phillies did not trade for Blanton, would they have made the playoffs this season?

Neither you or I can know for sure, but I'm going to say yes they would have because they would have promoted Happ sooner...plus they still had the best bullpen in the league, plus the Mets still were going to tank in the fall.

If anyone really believes Joe Blanton is the reason the phils won the division, jesus.

Again, please don't bring up a teams won loss record when a guy pitches as an indicator of how a guy himself actually pitched.

If the phillies had a better record (in the time he was here) in games started by  Joe Blanton than Cole Hamels, does that mean blanton pitched better?

[bebopdeluxe]

Now...to answer your other posts...

I think that the Phils are a cheap-azz organization...one only needs to look at their Latin scouting department - both in terms of structure as well as their willingness to play with the big boys in terms of bonuses for quality Latin talent.  It is no coincidence that one of their two best prospects (Carrasco) is a guy who they FINALLY wrote a check for.

When you combine that with stuff like the $550,000 check they wrote to Jarred Cosart, it looks like they are taking some of those gate receipts and reinvesting in the minor leagues...but I'll reserve judgement on that for now.

Was the price they paid for Blanton high?  Probably...but the guy was the A's opening day starter...he certainly seems to have major league stuff...and perhaps a change of scenery was what he needed.  While we can talk about his downside, he also could be our #3 starter for then next couple of years - in which case - unless Cardenas becomes an All-Star - the deal does not look horrific to me.

[bebopdeluxe]

C'mon, jem...I know you can do better than that.

 

Comparing Hamels to Blanton is silly.  It's like asking why Hamels got such crappy run-support while Kendrick got such great run support...Hamels is pitching against the other team's ace...while guys like Kendrick and Blanton are pitching against the other teams' #4 starter - I can live with a 4.50 ERA from that starter, because my team is going to score more.  What I cannot deal with is a 6.00 ERA and a guy who can't consistently get me to the 7th inning, 'cause it will kill my bullpen.

And using your "Monday Morning Quarterbacking" way of looking at things, obviously it would have made sense to sigh Lohse to a one-year deal...but for most of the off-season, he was looking for $40 million, and we already had 5 starters (Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Kendrick and $15 million of Adam Eaton).  It was the crappy Eaton signing (and the need to give him another chance to earn his money), as well as moving Myers back into the rotation, that kept us from signing Lohse.  You know that.

I agree that I want my team to make "smart" moves...and I certainly do not want them to give away good, young talent (and God knows this ownership group does not want to give away cheap, controllable players)...but the abject failure of Eaton and the inconsistency of Kendrick forced their hand at the deadline.  I'm glad they did something...and unlike you, I don't think they make the playoffs without Blanton.  They guy pitched almost 200 innings this season...and the way that Eaton and Kendrick were forcing us to go to the bullpen, they would have bonked even sooner than they did had they not brought a guy in to pitch some innings.

[Derek Bodner]

I agree that Cardenas was a key guy in the deal, but I don't see how Cardenas was going to get us a Sabathia/Harden-like guy at the deadline

EXACTLY MY POINT.

No, Cardenas alone wasn't going to get Sabathia.  The reason we can't go after Sabathia is because of trades like the Cardenas trade that deplete our farm system.  So, this offseason, or next trading deadline, when we're again out of the running for the top of the line pitchers available in trades, and again settle for a 4th rate pitcher who might be effective half of the time because we don't have the depth in our farm system, you can think back to the Blanton deal as a type of deal that got us into that situation (along with brilliant moves like giving up on 22 year old former 1st round draft picks with ace stuff).

Here's a straight-forward question:

Do you want your team to make aggressive, in-season moves to try to win a championship?

Here's another question:

If the Phillies did not trade for Blanton, would they have made the playoffs this season?

And another question:

What other deal could the Phillies have done to bring a #4 major-league quality starter at the deadline for less than what they traded?

Answers:
- I want my team to make SMART trades.  Complaining that you don't have the depth in your minor league system to trade for top flight pitchers, then trading two of your best minor league prospects for below average pitching, isn't smart.

- Impossible to say.  I think we could have gotten similar production from someone already in our organization (Happ), while still keeping one of your top prospects (who's 20 years old). 

- Are you a GM?  I'm not.  So I don't know how you can expect anyone to answer this.  A bad trade is not better than no trade at all.

4th starters are fungible.  You do not spend significant assets to obtain them.  doing so leaves your farm system depleted and prevents you from having enough assets to get real difference makers (and that even completely ignores the possibility that those minor leaguers actually make the big leagues, and have an impact, like say Gavin Floyd).

I hate the term "innings eater".  If he were a good pitcher, he'd be classified as a good pitcher, not an innings eater.  Getting a lot of mediocre innings is not something to write home about.

And Blanton pitching 200 innings is irrelevant.  He pitched 70 innings for us. averaging less than 6 innings per start for us.

[jemagee]

And Blanton pitching 200 innings is irrelevant.  He pitched 70 innings for us. averaging less than 6 innings per start for us.

Just out of curiosity - no reason but i wondered about it - how many of those games that the phils 'won when blanton started' were they actually leading when Blanton left the game?

The Qaulity Start is a stupid stat, but if a guy can't average six innings per start, he's not a guy I'm all that fond of anyway

[Derek Bodner]

Not sure, and don't have the time to look it up right now.  But I hate the "record when a pitcher pitchers" stat.   The phillies were 13-4 in Kendricks first 17 starts of the season.  That doesn't mean he was pitching well, nor was it a good predictor of his future pitching performance (as he went on to tank down the stretch).

[jemagee]

Oh I hate it too, no doubt, but people like to use it as an indicator of a 'good pitcher' (hell won loss record isn't a good indicator) so I was just curios as to the 'status' of games when Blanton leaves - trust me - i'm on your side here (and you answered most of the questions same way I did)

But a guy who can't average 6 innings per start is a guy who puts more strain on your bullpen, and that's a problem.

[Derek Bodner]

Also, you're going to trot out the "he was the opening day starter" line?

(which, btw, only happened due to injury)

Remember, Myers was our opening day starter this year as well.  At the deadline this year we wouldn't have been able to give him away.

How many of these guys would you trade one of your top prospects for?
Jon Lieber (2x our opening day starter)
Robert Person
Omar Daal
Andy Ashby (who SUCKED with us the 2nd time around)
Bruce Ruffin

What does being an opening day starter have to do with anything?

I'm just going to very heartily disagree with you.  I hate the excuse that we don't have the depth in our farm system to pursue players, and hate compounding that by trading away a top prospect for a mediocre pitcher who's not likely to have any real sustained success.

[jemagee]

Remember, Myers was our opening day starter this year as well.  At the deadline this year we wouldn't have been able to give him away.

Well, in Myers defense, he shouldn't have been the opening day starter and everyone knew it

I would just like to say to compound Dbods 'hate' - i hate the way the phillies build and stock their minor league system and waste money on useless 3rd baseman

[bebopdeluxe]

If the Kendrick who was the pitcher for his first 17 starts was the same pitcher after that, I could have lived with him as our 4/5 starter (despite only averaging less than 5 1/2 innings a start).  It was his starts after July 1 that were brutal.  The reality is we were lucky getting by with Kendrick in our rotation...and our luck ran out.  Like Eaton, he was killing our bullpen by the end there, and something simply needed to be done.

As far as Blanton is concerned...

1) He finished 39th in MLB in IP - averaging exactly 6 inings a start...not heroic, mind you, but as a #4 starter, I'll take it.  (I would love to know what other teams' #4 starter averaged in IP this season);

2) I understand why he was the A's opening day starter...my point was not that he is Brandon Webb, but that he had good enough stuff that a MLB team named him their Opening Day starter (and with all due respect to JA Happ's potential, I can understand how Gillick viewed Blanton as a more viable option than anything we had internally when it was clear that Eaton was toast);

3) I respect the opinion that you do not do yourself any favors in terms of a realtively threadbare farm system by trading away one or two quality chits to make a deal like this...however, I do believe that Blanton helped get us to this point, and - as a Philadelphia sports fan - I appreciate that my team is making a deal to try to win a WS title (and the fact that Blanton is still under our control for two more years - to give Carrasco and Savery time to get their acts together - is not a bad thing, either, IMO)...

That's all I've got, guys.