http://www.82games.com/comm28.htm"Super Clutch" NBA Players
We post stats (updated daily) for every player on how they are performing in clutch moments which we define as the last five minutes of a game where neither team is ahead by more than five points. This allows for some reasonable sample size over the course of the season.
However a number of folks out there (you know who you are) keep insisting that clutch should really be even more restrictive in its definition. So, to that end in this study we will stress the ultra clutch timeframe by examining the last two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime period, with neither team ahead by more than 3 points. In essence, games where a team can tie it up or take the lead within one possession.
(All stats reflect games played through March 17th of the 2003-04 season).
1) Top 20 Super Clutch Offensive Players
There are a number of statistics people are drawn to when assessing offensive skills. We see references to points scored, field goal percentage, assist/turnover ratios, and the like. The measure however that is most in favor with NBA sabermetricians is the concept of points per possession, or more commonly, points per 100 possessions. This is intended to take into account a multitude of factors, including shooting efficiencies, passing, foul drawing skills, offensive rebounding, and turnovers. You wind up with a rating that more precisely indicates a player's contributions than you would achieve by focusing on one small part of the picture.
However, one problem with such a rating on the player level is that "usage levels" vary considerably, especially in the waning moments of a close game. Players who very seldom see the ball in such situations are much more likely to have a wide open look on a shot then the go-to guy drawing the double team. Consequently we adjust the points per possession by the player's usage level to reward players who can create their own shot even when the other team knows what's coming.
Notes: The eFG number represents an "effective field goal percentage" when adjusted for the 3-point baskets made. Oreb is the number of offensive rebounds secured by the player, which is compared to the Dreb, or defensive rebounds allowed to the opposing counterpart.
Rank Player Team Poss48 Rating
1 Redd MIL 38 156.7
2 Boozer CLE 25 154.9
3 Kirilenko UTA 28 150.1
4 Nash DAL 36 149.9
5 Posey MEM 22 148.2
6 Marbury NYK 32 142.1
7 Cassell MIN 34 142.0
8 Pierce BOS 54 138.1
9 Duncan SAS 44 138.1
10 Hughes WAS 39 132.8
11 Francis HOU 36 132.2
12 Maggette LAC 34 132.1
13 Sprewell MIN 29 132.0
14 Hamilton DET 31 128.7
15 Stojakovic SAC 29 128.6
16 Carter TOR 54 127.7
17 Allen SEA 55 125.3
18 Williams TOR 32 121.7
19 Bryant LAL 51 121.5
20 Arroyo UTA 42 120.5
The league shooting totals in this "extreme clutch" phase of games for the 2003-04 season shows a 36% Field Goal accuracy mark, and a 40% effective FG percentage. We required a player to have 15 calculated possession "credits" in this extreme crunch time view to qualify for inclusion in the above list. Obviously the sample sizes are tiny, and someone getting on a hot or cold run the next time in the super clutch game could dramatically alter that player's standing.
With that said, the list as it stands features a number of big name players, predominantly guards and small forwards. Boozer, Kirilenko, and Duncan can lay claim to spending time in power position roles, but otherwise the implication may be that the big post men don't see the ball as much in the final minutes as they do in the preceeding ones. In some cases that's an issue of poor free throw shooting, in others it reflects the difficulty in establishing position and receiving the pass when the refs may take a more liberal attitude towards the physical battles in the paint.
Shaquille O'Neal scores an outstanding 151.8 rating, but has too few possessions to make the cut (albeit in part due to some injury problems). The Lakers do indeed rely on Kobe in those late moments.
We digress though. Michael Redd has the top spot for the time being, through outstanding shooting, foul drawing and minimal turnovers. Boozer and Kirilenko meanwhile hit the offensive glass, and get to the line, while also hitting their shots.
Paul Pierce is a very interesting case in light of his poor shooting -- just 6 for 23 and a 30% eFG. Still his value to the Celtics is noticeable in that he draws fouls at a ridiculous rate (almost 1.5 free throws for each field goal attempt), passes well (12 assists to 2 turnovers), and draws so much coverage that his teammates have all kinds of open looks (Boston was the #1 rated super clutch offensive team in our previous article on the subject). This then seems to justify his gaudy placing in the table above.
Ultimately however we have really too little data to draw many conclusions from. Perhaps with similar stats accrued over several seasons and including playoff games, we could arrive at a more convincing hierarchy as to which players are, indeed, clutch.
2) Team Leaders
Looking at this performance area on a team by team level is interesting as you realize quickly what kind of distribution of the ball is going on in the clutch moments. We did require a minimum of 8 "possession credits" to be included in the table below.
Team Player Poss48 Rating
ATL Abdur-Rahim 30 111.6
ATL Terry 46 111.6
ATL Glover 23 90.6
ATL Jackson 21 83.9
BOS James 24 139.9
BOS Pierce 54 138.1
BOS Welsch 28 125.7
BOS McCarty 19 74.1
CHI Crawford 43 95.6
CHI Hinrich 20 34.8
CLE Boozer 25 154.9
CLE Williams 18 95.0
CLE James 45 82.0
CLE Ilgauskas 23 76.0
DAL Nash 36 149.9
DAL Nowitzki 39 104.6
DAL Finley 22 92.4
DAL Walker 30 57.3
DEN Anthony 40 99.6
DEN Boykins 58 81.8
DEN Miller 36 78.9
DET RWallace 8 143.4
DET Hamilton 31 128.7
DET Billups 46 107.4
DET Prince 11 47.7
GSW Dampier 12 145.4
GSW Van Exel 44 96.9
GSW Richardson 30 77.1
GSW Robinson 28 74.3
HOU Francis 36 132.2
HOU Ming 30 114.5
HOU Jackson 15 81.1
HOU Mobley 26 74.2
IND Johnson 24 161.3
IND Miller 26 113.9
IND Artest 29 92.3
IND Tinsley 18 79.8
IND O'Neal 30 77.5
IND Harrington 16 70.1
LAC Maggette 34 132.1
LAC Jaric 22 82.4
LAL O'Neal 15 151.8
LAL Rush 37 145.9
LAL Bryant 51 121.5
LAL Payton 29 100.7
LAL Fisher 34 63.4
MEM Posey 22 148.2
MEM Williams 17 122.9
MEM Gasol 38 120.2
MEM Battier 21 112.7
MEM Swift 32 103.6
MEM Miller 20 98.8
MIA Wade 23 88.0
MIA Odom 40 83.9
MIA Jones 33 80.6
MIA Haslem 17 44.4
MIL Redd 38 156.7
MIL Smith 24 77.1
MIL Kukoc 36 68.8
MIL Mason 19 55.5
MIN Cassell 34 142.0
MIN Sprewell 29 132.0
MIN Garnett 31 107.6
NJN Kittles 26 134.4
NJN Martin 24 99.0
NJN Kidd 48 98.4
NJN Jefferson 21 90.3
NOH Mashburn 62 120.2
NOH Armstrong 28 118.7
NOH Lynch 34 109.1
NOH Davis 32 44.7
NOH Brown 14 26.6
NYK ThomasT 57 219.2
NYK Marbury 32 142.1
NYK Hardaway 28 116.9
NYK Houston 38 107.5
NYK Ward 35 85.7
NYK Thomas 21 36.3
ORL McGrady 41 107.5
ORL Strickland 27 106.6
ORL Gooden 23 93.7
ORL Lue 24 80.3
ORL Howard 16 62.1
PHI Snow 37 73.2
PHI Iverson 42 70.9
PHI McKie 30 69.7
PHO Johnson 29 89.6
PHO Marbury 36 82.8
PHO Marion 37 77.4
PHO Jacobsen 16 39.2
POR Randolph 22 120.2
POR Anderson 33 115.2
POR Stoudamire 32 106.6
POR Wallace 32 84.6
POR McInnis 26 35.1
SAC Stojakovic 29 128.6
SAC Bibby 35 118.9
SAC Divac 27 105.6
SAC Jackson 28 99.2
SAS Duncan 44 138.1
SAS Ginobili 28 111.9
SAS Rose 22 103.9
SAS Parker 21 78.7
SEA Murray 43 168.8
SEA Allen 55 125.3
SEA Lewis 34 99.9
SEA Radmanovic 19 90.8
TOR Bosh 10 185.9
TOR Carter 54 127.7
TOR Williams 32 121.7
TOR Marshall 12 102.8
TOR Rose 21 74.5
TOR Peterson 12 70.5
UTA Kirilenko 28 150.1
UTA Arroyo 42 120.5
UTA Bell 21 84.9
WAS Hughes 39 132.8
WAS Arenas 34 31.4
WAS Dixon 41 25.4
