On paper this should be a really good series. The Spurs have their Big 3 (Parker, Ginobili, Duncan) and solid core of role players, the Lakers have their Big 3 (Kobe, Odom, Gasol) and a solid core of role players. The Spurs have a solid, proven, championship-level coach, the Lakers have a solid, proven, championship-level coach. The Spurs are a WC powerhouse that hang their hat on defense, ditto the Lakers. By any measure you're looking at a hard fought 7 game, nail-biter of a series that'll go right to the wire before a winner is chosen. Problem is I just don't see it playing out that way.
The Lakers are pretty much an unstoppable offensive force. They'll post Gasol where he can score, pass, or swing. They'll have Lamar Odom on the high post where he'll go right around KT or Fab, or setup the offense, unless they have the likes of Finley/Udoka on him in which case Odom will post. Ditto Walton for a few plays should he find an undersized Spur on him--Barry, Vaughn, Parker, etc. Any double teams on Gasol/Odom will have Vujacic, Radman, Fisher (who will stab you in the heart with a knife), Farmar, etc drooling. And then there's this x-factor they call Kobe. Expect Gasol, Odom, and Turiaf to crash the offensive boards hard on nearly every possession. On defense they'll pack the lane on Parker and Ginobili daring those two to beat them from outside while using single coverage/late help and judicious use of all 24 fouls alotted Turiaf/Mbenga/Gasol/Odom against Duncan. The single coverage on Duncan will of course keep the offensive talents of Bowen/Udoka/Barry/Horry/Finley at bay. Duncan might go for 40 points but Spurs not name Duncan will be hard pressed to put up the 55-60 points needed to stay with LA's scoring. In other words, think 2002.
The Spurs won't be helpless of course. A concerted and repititious effort on the part of Ginobili and Parker to collapse the defense by penetrating (no matter the fatigue or physicality) may lead to kick-outs for open threes to Spur shooters. A good shooting night by those Spurs may spell doom for the Lakers. And since we're talking about the Spurs, one can't forget to mention the pick-and-roll. They'll run Parker-Duncan, Parker-Fabs, Ginobili-Duncan, and Ginobili-Fabs repeatedly and it will be up to the Lakers to be concious of the spacing involved. Outside of 18 feet, soft trap Parker, recover on Duncan. Inside of 18 feet, switch and rotate hard. Ginobili poses more problems because he can actually shoot and is a more clever passer, on the outside you'll have to hard trap him and recover on Duncan hoping Ginobili doesn't make the right decision or pack it in thereby daring him to shoot, if the shots are falling, it'll be a long night for the Lakers. On the inside, as with Parker, switch and start to rotate (this will mostly be Gasol's job and Turiaf's in the second unit).
At the end of the day the Spurs will need fantastic shooting and consistent, unyielding offensive attacks to the basket to have a chance to pull out a victory (especially one of the 1st two in LA). LA on the other hand can non-chalantly run their offense and rely on their athleticism/youth to get the Spurs in to the penalty early in quarters and ride their closer's back in crunch time. Should LA get both home games, the series is over as Phil has never lost a series being up 2-0. I think they will. At that point its a matter of who wins the 3rd game which will be extremely close in crunch time and is really up for grabs. If LA doesn't win both games at home, it'll be a series. Mostly because with teams like LA, confidence plays just as big a role as effort.
