Denver formula for beating the Lakers

[WayOutWest]

Listen to your coach!

If the Nuggets can get away from taking quick shots they can beat the Lakers.  I think this series could go 7 games if the Nuggets pass at least once before shooting and if they listen to their coach.

[westkoast]

Listen to westkoast!

Stop making threads at the begging of the game Miguel.  By the time the game ends they sound foolish!  No way Denver takes this 7 games if they continue to let the Lakers layup/dunk the ball 40 times a game.

[Ted]

Stop making threads at the begging of the game Miguel.

What?

[westkoast]

Stop making threads at the begging of the game Miguel.

What?

Bleh its a typo, im using my cell phone to post.  Its hard to go back to edit things.

[msc]

Listen to your coach!

If the Nuggets can get away from taking quick shots they can beat the Lakers.  I think this series could go 7 games if the Nuggets pass at least once before shooting and if they listen to their coach.

I agree.  It's almost nutty how undisciplined the Nuggets play.  They can pretty much score on the Lakers at will.  Melo can kill any of our small forwards on the block and Iverson is pretty much unguardable.  It's a given their D has to improve, but if they would just be a little more disciplined and methodical on offense, that would really help their cause.  Plus, the more time they burn off the clock on offense the less shots your giving your opponent. 

[westkoast]

Listen to your coach!

If the Nuggets can get away from taking quick shots they can beat the Lakers.  I think this series could go 7 games if the Nuggets pass at least once before shooting and if they listen to their coach.

I agree.  It's almost nutty how undisciplined the Nuggets play.  They can pretty much score on the Lakers at will.  Melo can kill any of our small forwards on the block and Iverson is pretty much unguardable.  It's a given their D has to improve, but if they would just be a little more disciplined and methodical on offense, that would really help their cause.  Plus, the more time they burn off the clock on offense the less shots your giving your opponent. 

Passing the ball around more is not going to help their defense so I disagree with you both actually.  Even if the Lakers got less possessions they still are converting shots at too high of a rate.  The score would come down from triple digits but the Lakers would still be the more efficient squad.

  One play can pretty much sum up why they won't go 7 games...

Lamar odom catches a pass  at the top of the 3 point line, doesn't fake, looks up, runs right to the front of the rim for a dunk with Melo and Camby just reaching their arms out to touch him.

The bad part about that one example is it actually has happened 5 times in the last two games.

[msc]

Passing the ball around more is not going to help their defense so I disagree with you both actually.  Even if the Lakers got less possessions they still are converting shots at too high of a rate.  The score would come down from triple digits but the Lakers would still be the more efficient squad.

  One play can pretty much sum up why they won't go 7 games...

Lamar odom catches a pass  at the top of the 3 point line, doesn't fake, looks up, runs right to the front of the rim for a dunk with Melo and Camby just reaching their arms out to touch him.

The bad part about that one example is it actually has happened 5 times in the last two games.

It's not just passing the ball around, it's offensive efficiency. The Lakers D is almost as bad as Denver's.  If Denver would be more disciplined and not just run down and whoever has the ball takes the first shot possible, I think they'd improve their shooting %. When Denver goes to the zone, the Lakers fall in to their typical pass the ball around the horn and jack up a bad 3 with shot clock winding down.  We witnessed that in the 3rd quarter last night and Denver easily got back in the game.  Had Kobe not been on fire and had Denver maintained any sense of composure and discipline, they could have easily won that game last night. 

[westkoast]

Passing the ball around more is not going to help their defense so I disagree with you both actually.  Even if the Lakers got less possessions they still are converting shots at too high of a rate.  The score would come down from triple digits but the Lakers would still be the more efficient squad.

  One play can pretty much sum up why they won't go 7 games...

Lamar odom catches a pass  at the top of the 3 point line, doesn't fake, looks up, runs right to the front of the rim for a dunk with Melo and Camby just reaching their arms out to touch him.

The bad part about that one example is it actually has happened 5 times in the last two games.

It's not just passing the ball around, it's offensive efficiency. The Lakers D is almost as bad as Denver's.  If Denver would be more disciplined and not just run down and whoever has the ball takes the first shot possible, I think they'd improve their shooting %. When Denver goes to the zone, the Lakers fall in to their typical pass the ball around the horn and jack up a bad 3 with shot clock winding down.  We witnessed that in the 3rd quarter last night and Denver easily got back in the game.  Had Kobe not been on fire and had Denver maintained any sense of composure and discipline, they could have easily won that game last night. 

I agree the Lakers D is not great but they have two players at positions where we have a once awesome defender who is a bit too slow for AI and Radmonovich or Luke Walton guarding Melo.  I actually think they need to pass less in the half court and run more.  The Lakers transition defense is the part of the defense that is the most suspect.  Not so much in the half court when they get a chance to get set.  AI should keep the ball in his hands and go to the rim most of the time.  Even if the Nuggets were more efficient they have been mainly doing damage from the perimeter/mid-range.  They are not getting dunk after dunk like the Lakers did. 

Telling a team to pass more and actually having a good passing team is two different things.  The Nuggets have played isolation basketball all year because they have two players who are really really good at it.  That is the reason they don't pass as much or as well as the Lakers.  Their own style holds them back.  Catch 22.  It's their strength but at the same time their weakness.

Had Kobe not been on fire, had this had that.  Had Allen Iverson not been able to get around Derek Fisher and Farmar so easily they might not have won even if Kobe didn't go off.  These are what ifs and not worth bringing up IMO.  Had Kobe not went 8 for 26 in the first game the Lakers would have beat them by 30.

[Randy]

I think the Nuggets play their best defense when the move into the zone -- the problem is that the Lakers shooters were making them pay for the zone last night.  I liked what the Lakers did defensively last night -- they put Kobe on Kleiza at the very beginning of the game.  They made him work very hard for his points and took him out of his flow.  The Lakers then just tried to put strong pressure on AI and Melo and they accomplished their task.  

Actually, if the Lakers could keep the Nuggets off the board, they score wouldn't have been nearly as close.  

Kobe didn't allow Martin to keep him from driving last night -- which opened up a lot of the Lakers game.  Then the other shooters started making shots and that forced defenders to have to guard them opening up the middle again for some easy cuts and baskets.

I'm still not happy with the way that the Lakers are playing defense -- they look like they are playing down to their opponent and that's okay against the Nuggets but it's going to create problems in future rounds.

[rickortreat]

I agree with MSC. It is a matter of discipline, and lack of patience.  By forcing too many shots, they are giving the Lakers the chance to run out and get easy baskets.  If they were patient on offense and forced the Lakers to spend more time defending, they would do better, possibly well enough to win.  It is always easier to defend, if you've made a bucket and have time to get back and set up your defense.

Neither team can stop the other, but Denver is stopping themselves by not making each possession count.

[westkoast]

The Lakers have had Denver's number the entire year.  I honestly don't think anything they do could not be countered by the Lakers.

Odom getting in foul trouble last night was the reason the Lakers were not as good on the back board.  He had half the rebounds he normally does.  He is also a much better defender then Walton or Radman.  I think him being in foul trouble hurt the Lakers last night regardless if they won.

The Lakers pass well because they have Odom, Gasol, Walton, and Bryant.  The Nuggets have one good passer in AI and a bunch of guys who are far from passers.  Like I said it's easy to say this team needs to pass more.

[Randy]

Odom needs to drive to the rim at the beginning of the game -- it gives his outside game confidence.  The fact is that right now, the Lakers can win with just two of their main guys doing well -- game #1 was Pau's night -- game #2 was Kobe's night -- game #3, perhaps will be Odom's night.  It will be a great thing for the Lakers if they can get all three of these guys going at times -- it puts a lot of pressure on other teams to have to guard all three.

[msc]

The Lakers have had Denver's number the entire year.  I honestly don't think anything they do could not be countered by the Lakers.

They've definitetly had their number, but I think Denver could easily play better against the Lakers.  Actually it blows me away that they're not.  They are loaded with talent.  They have two of the best scorers in the league surrounded by Martin, Camby, Klieza, Najera, Smith, Carter, Nene.  Their two stars are surrounded with a couple of shooters, some bangers, a couple of good defenders.  This team is loaded and should be challenging for the 1 seed, not struggling to make the 8.  Obviously it's their unwillingness and lack of commitment to play defense that's hurting them.  This baffles me as well because they certainly have the physical abilities to play D.   

Odom getting in foul trouble last night was the reason the Lakers were not as good on the back board.  He had half the rebounds he normally does.  He is also a much better defender then Walton or Radman.  I think him being in foul trouble hurt the Lakers last night regardless if they won.

Obviously Odom being out hurt.  But the Lakers were giving up a shyte load of offensive boards in the beginning of the first quarter with Odom in the game.  The boxing out needs to improve even with Odom in the game.

The Lakers pass well because they have Odom, Gasol, Walton, and Bryant.  The Nuggets have one good passer in AI and a bunch of guys who are far from passers.  Like I said it's easy to say this team needs to pass more.

Passing is just a small part of it.  I'm talking about patience and discipline.  It appears to me that the Nuggs just run down and whoever happens to have the ball shoots it.  This works out okay most of the time if it's in AI or Melo's hands, but when Martin, Camby, Klieza, whoever get the ball they either run right at the basket, or pull up for a quick jumper.  It's great to be aggressive, but they have to learn to pick their spots and force the defensive to react and make decisions.  They have a ton of mismatch's with the Lakers and I don't see them doing their best to fully exploit them.  BTW, I'm not saying they quite running and slow the game down.  Running is they're strength and they should employ it, but again it comes down to picking your spots within the flow of the game. 

[westkoast]

They've definitetly had their number, but I think Denver could easily play better against the Lakers.

What I am trying to say is if they could, they would.  Saying they should because what they have on paper is like saying that the Suns are a championship team for the same reasons.  They might look like they should beat certain teams but they just cannot.  The Lakers in the 5 match ups this year have dictated the flow and tempo 98% of the time.  Each time they've matched up they've been beat by double digits.  Not a single time this year have the Nuggets really controlled a game with the Lakers for any stretch of time.  It's been the same whether Pau Gasol has been in or Andrew Bynum was in.  Whether Kobe went off or did not go off.

However there have been times this year where Denver has dominated teams playing this same style of basketball.  I just think the Lakers have there number regardless of what they try to adjust.

 

Actually it blows me away that they're not.  They are loaded with talent.  They have two of the best scorers in the league surrounded by Martin, Camby, Klieza, Najera, Smith, Carter, Nene.  Their two stars are surrounded with a couple of shooters, some bangers, a couple of good defenders. 

But only one guy who is a real play maker in the sense that he really makes a lot of plays for others (AI of course).  A lot of these guys are use to catching the ball and shooting.  They are not passers and it keeps Denver from really being able to pick their spots.  In fact if Allen Iverson doesn't pick spots for them it seems as if they settle for anything.  Maybe if this squad had Chris Paul or Deron Williams I would agree but they don't.  AI is not even a natural PG.  He is just talented enough to do anything he wants on the floor.

This kind of goes back to me having to put my foot in my mouth about AK-47 towards the end of the season.  AK-47 may not be an Allen Iverson but he will make the pass to the right person who makes another good pass.   Having players who consistently do that is very important.  They have a bunch of guys who are black holes meaning they get the ball and it doesn't go to another team mate.  The Lakers on the other hand have a number of guys outside of their two all star players who can make plays for others.

Passing is just a small part of it.  I'm talking about patience and discipline.  It appears to me that the Nuggs just run down and whoever happens to have the ball shoots it.  This works out okay most of the time if it's in AI or Melo's hands, but when Martin, Camby, Klieza, whoever get the ball they either run right at the basket, or pull up for a quick jumper.  It's great to be aggressive, but they have to learn to pick their spots and force the defensive to react and make decisions.  They have a ton of mismatch's with the Lakers and I don't see them doing their best to fully exploit them.  BTW, I'm not saying they quite running and slow the game down.  Running is they're strength and they should employ it, but again it comes down to picking your spots within the flow of the game. 

Well if you are talking patience, that is not what is preached by their coach.  If you saw any of the pre-game video clips of George Karl or any of the half time ones you would have heard how he tells them they are at their best attacking the other teams defense to wear them down.  He doesn't want them to be patient and eat up the whole clock looking for that shot.  They have a lot of fast players and have 4 guys who are quality finishers.   He wants the ball to be shoved down the opposing teams defense throat in transition.  When Denver has had success this is what they have done.   I am not talking about stopping the fast break game or going Spurs slow.  When you look for quality shots it will slow you down.  Moving the ball from weak to strong a few times will slow them down.

Ditto for discipline.  They are trying to follow what the coaching staff has addresses as their strength all season long.  They are following what the coaching staff wants them to do.  They've had success this year.  Fighting for an 8th seed this year is like fighting for a 4-5 seed in years past.  I don't think its fair to say they shouldn't be fighting for an 8th seed when you needed 50 wins to get there.   So maybe it's not discipline as much as how the coaching staff has designed this team to play.


Another problem with the matchup with the Lakers is while their defense is def. suspect, they have a couple of decent defenders and a size advantage.  Luke Walton, the current X factor of this series, has been using his size to KILL Denver.  Whens the last time you saw Luke get 16 and 18 in back to back games?  Just like they can't magically make players better passers/cutters they can't address some of the size mis matches.

[Skandery]

This works out okay most of the time if it's in AI or Melo's hands, but when Martin, Camby, Klieza, whoever get the ball they either run right at the basket, or pull up for a quick jumper.

msc, I agree with everything you said except this one sentence.  Settling for quick jumpers doesn't work out even if it's in AI or Melo's hands.  I watched the entire game last night and I believe the Lakers were up to 33-32.  I made the observation that this is one of those 1 point games that is really a 15 point game.  Lo and behold the Lakers win the game by 15.  Denver doesn't know the meaning of defense and their offensive discipline is non-existent and that falls directly on the shoulders of their floor leaders.  It wasn't just Kobe going nuts in the 1st quarter.  AI and Melo tried their absolute darndest to shoot Denver out of the game and were eventually successful.  Carmelo especially has to dishearten the Nugget fanbase.  Here is a young, talented forward with significant strength advantage against most defenders being guarded by the likes of Vlad Radmanovic and he doesn't have the heart to drive to the basket and get himself going on layups when he couldn't shoot fish in a barrel.  It might be conditioning?  Admittedly I haven't watched Denver much at all this year but it doesn't look like Carmelo has the conditioning for professional basketball let alone playoff-intense basketball.   

George Karl knew what was happening in the 1st quarter and told his guys they needed to quit settling for perimeter shots and drive more to the basket.  Seems like everybody but his captains listened (Linas Kleiza was the only Nugget starter playing a halfway decent game).  Phil Jackson, after the 3rd quarter, himself said that the absolute most critical thing against Denver is to collapse into the lane and deny penetration.  Iverson had recently made a 3 pointer at the end of the quarter and Phil remarked the Lakers would live with that.

I don't think Denver has the discipline required offensively (especially their "best" players), and certainly don't seem like they should bother to defend.  As expected LA is going to make short work of Denver; probably a sweep, Denver might luck into one.