No one has given the Sixers a chance in this series. Conventional wisdom says Detroit's experience and being in the EC finals the last 6 years makes them too good to beat a team that didn't even manage a .500 record.
The thing is the Pistons are old. Those 6 years going to the EC finals have taken their toll and they are not the same team that won in '04. They don't have Ben Wallace and they haven't replaced that player on their team. They don't dominate the boards like they did, and they don't have much of an inside presence. They beat teams by defending and pressuring and executing well in the half-court. Every player can shoot when open, and Billups, Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace and Prince can all create their own shot.
The Pistons also create match-up problems, few teams can match their tandem of guards and Prince is very tough for most teams to defend. The Sixers, however, can match up with their players and do so very competitively. Hamilton can't handle Andre Miller. Miller can post him up at will, and can get around him to make his passes. Billups usually dominates at the other guard spot, but Andre Igoudala is a better player, younger, stronger, faster, and longer and he is also an excellent one-on-one defender. Thad Young is a 19 yr. old rookie, who has developed into a starter. He is a tweener, doesn't quite have the handle he needs to be a three, and is a little small to a be a four. He is very quick and athletic, works hard on both ends, and can match Prince stride for stride. He can also score for the Sixers inside and out.
That leaves us with Rasheed Wallace, who is clearly a better player than Dalembert, but is more of an outside player. He is a decent defender, but he is not as athletic or quick as Sam. Sam will get his rebounds and blocks and his share of put-backs. McDyess is also better than Evans, but he also spends his time outside. Evans causes lots of problems - very disruptive on defense, and manages to force a lot of turnovers and get loose balls.
The Pistons have retooled their bench and that has helped them this year, but against the Sixers bench, they haven't done so well. Again the match-ups appear to be on the Sixers side. None of the Pistons reserves were effective in their regular season meetings, the Sixer reserves have more experience and athleticism. Lou Williams is good enough to start for most teams and is as dangerous a scorer as any on the Sixers. The Pistons will have no answer for his speed. Willie Green may be the starter or come off the bench, in either case he is better than the Pistons bench players. Rodney Carney lit up Detroit this season, he liked going up against the Piston reserves.
In their last two meetings of the season, the Sixers won both games. Regular season meetings mean little in the playoffs, but the Sixers know they can play the Pistons in the half-court and outshoot them. They also know that when they can steal the ball and run, the Pistons can't stop them. It's simply a matter of the Sixers ability to stay patient in the half-court and break down the Pistons defense, and putting pressure on Billups and Hamilton.
When the Sixers are at their best, they shut other team's down. They force turnovers and steals, and just wear the other team down. Detroit isn't the type of team to wilt easily, but they have no individual match-ups where they have a scoring advantage. Points won't come easily for them against the Sixers; but the Sixers seem to be able to execute and score against them.
The only real concern is momentum, Detroit comes in winning and the Sixers limping in after clinching a spot. I think the Sixers needed a little time to rest and recharge, and this break between the season and the start is just what they needed. It's important that the Sixers come out focused and competitive for 48 minutes. If they do, Detroit will be in trouble this series.
