Who is going to get squeezed out of the playoffs in the Western Conference?

[rickortreat]

Even though the two best teams are in the East, this is the most lopsided I can ever remember the conferences being, with 10 teams over .500 and NINE over .600.

In the East there are only 3 teams over .600.

I really do think a team should at least be above .500 to qualify for the playoffs. Maybe something should be done so a more worthy team doesn't get a chance because their city is in a tough conference.

A good Western conference team is going to miss the playoffs this season, and it's too close to call.  Denver is the odd team out, but I can't believe they're going to stay out. Golden State is one game ahead, and Dallas is 2.5, the Suns are only 3.5 games from falling out of the playoffs. Houston has only a four game lead over the Nuggets, and they've won Sixteen in a row! 

You have to wonder how long Houston will keep this up. 

So who do you think will miss the cut?

[WayOutWest]

Even though the two best teams are in the East, this is the most lopsided I can ever remember the conferences being, with 10 teams over .500 and NINE over .600.

Record wise the two best are in the East, but overall the Spurs are the best team in the league right now.  If the Spurs, or any WC team for that matter, could FEAST on the soft EC, you would see winning percentages in 70% range.

I think the odd man out will be the Rockets, you can't lose a guy like Yao and expect to maintain their pace for an extended amount of time.  Then again, who knows, even without Yao the Rockets IMO have as much talent as the Grizz had back at their peak a few years ago.

[Randy]

The Rockets have won 17 in a row -- 5-0 without Yao.

I'm not sure that I see the Houston have a tremendous dropoff in play but when you stop and realize that there are only 7 games between the 1st and 9th place team in the west -- a major injury could just about knock out ANY team in the WC from the playoffs.  I don't remember a race this tight (from 1 to ever.  Does anyone else?

[Lurker]

Even though the two best teams are in the East, this is the most lopsided I can ever remember the conferences being, with 10 teams over .500 and NINE over .600.

The Spurs are a half game behind Detroit for second best record.  And have the same number of losses at 17.  But then when has a team ever had a quieter 11 game winning streak.

In the East there are only 3 teams over .600.

I really do think a team should at least be above .500 to qualify for the playoffs. Maybe something should be done so a more worthy team doesn't get a chance because their city is in a tough conference.

A good Western conference team is going to miss the playoffs this season, and it's too close to call.  Denver is the odd team out, but I can't believe they're going to stay out. Golden State is one game ahead, and Dallas is 2.5, the Suns are only 3.5 games from falling out of the playoffs. Houston has only a four game lead over the Nuggets, and they've won Sixteen in a row! 

You have to wonder how long Houston will keep this up. 

Rockets have been winning with defense and will continue to do so in the regular season.  Also it will make them competitive in the psotseason.  However as the game slows to more of a half court game for the playoffs they will miss Yao's offense and defense in the post.  Defense not as much because of Mutumbo but still miss Yao.

So who do you think will miss the cut?

Denver or Phoenix. 

The Nuggets are just plain dysfunctional starting with their head coach.  It is the old Portland approach...throw together as much talent as possible with no concern for chemistry or character.

The Suns are holding on because they were at the top when they made the trade.  However I could see them falling out of the hunt completely.  One thing that didn't come up much in the early struggles post-Marion was the fact that a lot of those games were in Phoenix. 

[westkoast]

San Antonio is the best and most proven team in the league, defending champs, also on a nice win streak of their own....etc.  To me that puts them in the #1 spot in the league.  Detroit is barely in front of both the Spurs and Lakers.  While I give them the nod over the Lakers no way they are a better squad then SA.

My pick to get squeezed is....Dallas.  Baron Davis should have Dirk's head mounted above his fire place.  The loss last year in the playoffs has ripped the hearts out of these guys.  They continue to lose close and very winnable games.  I personally think an artery has been severed and they are going to fade.  It might be the only way they could come close to the choke job they had last year.

[Randy]

wk, that's the whole reason they brought Kidd in -- because they didn't want Dirk to have to be the leader of this team -- Kidd's leadership on the court is the entire reason they pulled the trigger on this trade.  I still think it makes the Mavs an inferior team -- I don't think they have the defense in the middle to match up with the other top teams in the league -- but I DON'T see them losing to the Warriors again if the Mavs are healthy.  I think it's not only Kidd who makes the difference but Josh Howard.  Stephen Jackson has Dirks number -- he plays him tough and bodies him up -- it throws Dirk off balance.  But look for Kidd to negate that a little and look for Howard to step up.

I've been impressed with what I've seen of Bass so far.  It will be tough for him in the playoffs but he is doing well in this system.

[westkoast]

wk, that's the whole reason they brought Kidd in -- because they didn't want Dirk to have to be the leader of this team -- Kidd's leadership on the court is the entire reason they pulled the trigger on this trade.  I still think it makes the Mavs an inferior team -- I don't think they have the defense in the middle to match up with the other top teams in the league -- but I DON'T see them losing to the Warriors again if the Mavs are healthy.  I think it's not only Kidd who makes the difference but Josh Howard.  Stephen Jackson has Dirks number -- he plays him tough and bodies him up -- it throws Dirk off balance.  But look for Kidd to negate that a little and look for Howard to step up.

I've been impressed with what I've seen of Bass so far.  It will be tough for him in the playoffs but he is doing well in this system.

Not even Jason Kidd can get the funk off them.  They've lost to just about every single Western Conference playoff team since Jason Kidd has got there.

[Laker Fan]

I really do think a team should at least be above .500 to qualify for the playoffs. Maybe something should be done so a more worthy team doesn't get a chance because their city is in a tough conference.

I see, but the .429 Sixers are the 7th best team in the NBA? Wow Minnie Me, your Inconsistencies are truly remarkable.

[rickortreat]

The Sixers are 7-3 in their last 10, and are ranked 5th in terms of scoring differential.

But that's besides the point.

I can't believe Denver is going to miss.  They have too much talent, and they can play some defense. Golden State is so hot now that I can't pick them to miss it either. Houston is out of the question, they'll soon be leading the Western Conference!

I would have picked the Suns until they managed to beat San Antonio.  Dallas seems likeliest to me.  Kidd and the team hasn't exactly clicked, everyone else seems to be in gear already.  If they don't get their act together soon...

[WayOutWest]

I would have picked the Suns until they managed to beat San Antonio.  Dallas seems likeliest to me.  Kidd and the team hasn't exactly clicked, everyone else seems to be in gear already.  If they don't get their act together soon...

Dallas has the schedule in their favor.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-080308-09

Which of the nine teams in the wild, wild Western Confernce bidding for 50 wins is not going to the playoffs?

That might be easier to answer once you know which of these nine teams has the least (and the most) favorable remaining schedule.

With roughly one-fourth of the regular season to go and a highly irregular race shuffling the West's eight playoff seeds almost daily, it's the perfect time to rank the schedules from easiest to toughest entering Friday night's play. Which we suspect will give West coaches one more reason to curse the Lakers.

1. LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Games remaining: 13 home, 8 road

Record against teams still to play: 19-8

Composite winning percentage of remaining opponents: .515

Games left against teams with records over and under .500: 12 over, 9 under

Toughest stretch: March 14-20, with four straight road games against the Hornets, Rockets, Mavericks and Jazz.

Outlook: The Grizzlies will continue to be subjected to bitter jabs from the Lakers' conference rivals for handing Pau Gasol to Los Angeles for nada. But the schedule-makers are bound to wind up as the No. 2 target once the other West teams realize Kobe and Co. have the closest thing to a cake schedule over the next six weeks. How cake? No team in the West's top nine has fewer road games remaining. The Lakers, furthermore, have just three back-to-backs left. It's a combination which suggests that they can make a real push for the No. 1 seed even if Andrew Bynum doesn't make his comeback from a knee injury before the playoffs.

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2. DALLAS MAVERICKS

Games remaining: 12 home, 8 road

Record against teams still to play: 17-13

Composite winning percentage of remaining opponents: .506

Games left against teams with records over and under .500: 11 over, 9 under

Toughest stretch: March 27-April 6, with five of six games on the road and a home date with their old pals from Golden State.

Outlook: The Mavs opened a crucial flurry of home games with a lifeless loss to a Houston team they've routinely handled for years, but Dirk Nowitzki was out on a one-game suspension. Sporting the West's No. 2 home record at 25-4, Dallas still plays eight of its next nine games at home with only a trip to Miami to break things up. There are lots of challenging dates in that run, but the Mavs clearly play better in Big D. The games also are favorably spaced out, with only two back-to-backs left. Given what some of the competition has to cope with, Dallas can't ask for much more in its ongoing search for the continuity and defensive cohesion that has yet to materialize with Jason Kidd.

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3. HOUSTON ROCKETS

Games remaining: 10 home, 11 road

Record against teams still to play: 21-10

Composite winning percentage of remaining opponents: .512

Games left against teams with records over and under .500: 11 over, 10 under

Toughest stretch: March 19-April 6, with eight of 10 games on the road.

Outlook: Outlook: The Rockets' remaining home schedule includes only four teams with winning records (Hornets, Lakers, Celtics and Suns) so their road challenges will obviously be tougher. Yet I have to say the team I saw firsthand Thursday night was the most confident and unified group of Rockets since Yao Ming arrived in Houston ... even with Yao out injured. Given that they have won 11 in a row on the road and have begun playing at a faster tempo sans Yao, they might be able run with teams like Golden State and Denver. I don't see anything on the schedule that suggests they will be slipping out of the top eight.

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4. UTAH JAZZ

Games remaining: 11 home, 9 road

Record against teams still to play: 20-12

Composite winning percentage of remaining opponents: .519

Games left against teams with records over and under .500: 11 over, 9 under

Toughest stretch: April 4-16, with nothing but tough assignments in the season's final six games.

Outlook: The Jazz, remember, are one of only three teams in the West's top nine with a losing record on the road (13-19). So their four-game trip to the East next week is Jerry Sloan's first concern, followed by that unforgiving April. Utah will be done with its back-to-back obligations by then, but there will be no let-up late, since those final six games will be home dates with San Antonio, Denver and Houston and roadies in New Orleans, Dallas and San Antonio. Let's not forget, though, that the Jazz have not lost a home game in 2008, which is one big reason they remain a heavy favorite to win their division.

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5. PHOENIX SUNS

Games remaining: 11 home, 10 road

Record against teams still to play: 16-11

Composite winning percentage of remaining opponents: .538

Games left against teams with records over and under .500: 14 over, 7 under

Toughest stretch: March 18-April 1, with seven of nine games on the road and stops in Detroit and Boston on March 24 and March 26.

Outlook: By no measure do the Suns have an easy stretch-run schedule. But they have bigger challenges and chores, obviously, than obsessing over the degree of schedule difficulty in the midst of this, uh, complicated integration of a newcomer named Shaquille O'Neal. Steve Nash keeps calling it a late-season training camp, but the itinerary (having only four more back-to-back sets, for example) are livable compared to most teams. The Suns also have several very winnable games sprinkled in with their two remaining showdowns with San Antonio, Houston and Denver and the roadies against the Pistons and Celtics. At least we think so.

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6. DENVER NUGGETS

Games remaining: 10 home, 12 road

Record against teams still to play: 15-9

Composite winning percentage of remaining opponents: .515

Games left against teams with records over and under .500: 13 over, 9 under

Toughest stretch: March 18-April 1, with a five-game road trip that starts in Detroit and includes Allen Iverson's long-awaited return to Philadelphia, followed by a four-game stretch in which the Nuggets play host to Dallas and Golden State and play Phoenix twice.

Outlook: Four of the Nuggets' final seven games are against teams that will be out of playoff contention. The assignment, then, is turning this past week's big home wins over Phoenix and San Antonio into a road spark that can last until April, with daunting dates looming Saturday at Utah and Monday at San Antonio. If the Nuggets can't beat the Jazz or the Spurs, they will lug a 12-19 road record with them on that long five-game journey, which features the unappetizing possibility of Iverson's old team boosting its own unexpected playoff chances (and dealing Denver's odds a real blow) when AI goes to Philly as a visitor for the first time on March 19.

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7. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Games remaining: 10 home, 12 road

Record against teams still to play: 19-10

Composite winning percentage of remaining opponents: .522

Games left against teams with records over and under .500: 14 over, 8 under

Toughest stretch: April 1-6, with a four-game trip through the Southwest Division that pits the Warriors against every Southwest team but Houston.

Outlook: Only San Antonio has more games left against teams with winning records (15) than Golden State, whose 14 remaining games against teams over .500 include eight roadies. The bigger issue, however, might be the playing-time load being shouldered by Baron Davis and Monta Ellis. Davis hasn't missed a game all season, for the record, but he's averaged nearly 42 minutes over the past seven games, with Ellis at nearly 44 minutes. Will Don Nelson use his bench more down the stretch? Can Nellie's guards continue to stay fresh if he doesn't? And how much longer will Andris Biedrins be out? All big questions for a team that, under the circumstances, probably will have to consider it a success if it makes the playoffs for a second straight season.

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8. SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Games remaining: 10 home, 12 road

Record against teams still to play: 22-14

Composite winning percentage of remaining opponents: .561

Games left against teams with records over and under .500: 15 over, 7 under

Toughest stretch: March 12-25, with six of eight games on the road.

Outlook: You'd think the Spurs would have a home-heavy schedule after getting through their famed Rodeo Road Trip in February. But you'd be wrong. Friday night's game at Denver completes only the first of six remaining back-to-backs. It adds up to a demanding stretch run for the oldest team in the field, especially since the easiest road games San Antonio has left -- Philadelphia, Chicago, Portland and Sacramento -- aren't gimmes at all. Only a West-low seven of the Spurs' final 22 opponents, in fact, are teams with sub-.500 records.

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9. NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

Games remaining: 10 home, 12 road

Record against teams still to play: 19-14

Composite winning percentage of remaining opponents: .551

Games left against teams with records over and under .500: 14 over, 8 under

Toughest stretch: March 8-22, with two games against the Rockets, a trip to Detroit and home dates with the Spurs, Lakers and Celtics crammed into a seven-game span.

Outlook: It's a good thing the Hornets are so comfortable traveling, because they still face a six-game East swing -- their longest trip of the season -- after they get through the aforementioned seven-game crunch. The Hornets also must play four of their final five games away, with the April 16 season finale in Dallas capping the last of seven back-to-backs still hanging over them. Inexperience and injuries, respectively, derailed these guys in March in Chris Paul's first two seasons. They are a different team now, needing only a 9-13 finish to be a 50-win team, but no one in the West will see a tougher finishing kick.

Marc Stein is the senior NBA writer for ESPN.com

[rickortreat]

You're right.  I decided that Golden State will be the odd man out, because of their schedule.  It is a nightmare as they play every decent team in the Western Conference in succession.

That plus where they are in the standings should do them in, and allow Denver to slip past them into 8th and a date with the Lakers or the Rockets.

[westkoast]

My pick to get squeezed is....Dallas.  Baron Davis should have Dirk's head mounted above his fire place.  The loss last year in the playoffs has ripped the hearts out of these guys.  They continue to lose close and very winnable games.  I personally think an artery has been severed and they are going to fade.  It might be the only way they could come close to the choke job they had last year.

The trend continues and they are 2 games up from the Warriors while facing the Celtics and Spurs in the next two games.  Not to mention a head to head meeting with the Warriors a few games later.

Not even Jason Kidd can get the funk off them.  They've lost to just about every single Western Conference playoff team since Jason Kidd has got there.

Interesting stat:  They have not beat a team with a winning record since they beat the Trailblazers around the time they picked up Jason Kidd.

[rickortreat]

Of the teams that are in contention in the West, only the Spurs have a loosing record: 4-6.  They are currently in 6th, .5 a game ahead of Dallas, 2 games ahead of GS and 4 games from loosing a spot in the playoffs.

The current trend says the Spurs will miss.  But, I can't believe that.  It is amazing how things have changed since I first posted this.  Houston kept winning, Dallas discovered how to win again, the Suns even turned their season around.  Last year's Champions, the team that stayed pat, that seemed primed for another playoff run as soon as their star guard came back, is the one that's failing.

The teams are so close together that stats become almost meaningless.  There's not enough information there to say why this team is so much better than that team.  Even Golden State, with their very unorthodox style are winning at a .621 pct.

The teams on thin ice now are the Spurs who are still on the inside, and Denver, who lost last night and is still on the outside.  AI and Denver get to visit Philly tonight.  Philly fans love Allen, but once the ball gets tipped, he's the enemy.  Sympathy for the Nuggets?  Not a chance, the Sixers have a chance to get the 5th spot in the East.

[WayOutWest]

The current trend says the Spurs will miss.  But, I can't believe that.  It is amazing how things have changed since I first posted this.  Houston kept winning, Dallas discovered how to win again, the Suns even turned their season around.  Last year's Champions, the team that stayed pat, that seemed primed for another playoff run as soon as their star guard came back, is the one that's failing.

I don't think the Spurs will continue to falter nor will Denver pick up enough wins to displace the Spurs.  Houston is amazing, I am still expecting for them to come back down to earth.  Dallas has feasted on scrub teams, as soon as they play good teams, even a injury devastated Lakers team, they falter.  The Suns are going to be there, Shaq is starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel and will do what the Suns need to make a solid run in the playoffs.

[Reality]

Poppycock has settled on a rotation.
For better or worse, Michael Findawg is going to be starting.
If Finley gets into another of his good streaks, watch out.
If not, Barrdogs rejoining the team will most likely have Barrdog taking a few, some or most of Finleys minutes, at least until Fins begins hitting again.