Posted this a while back. Teams just fell asleep at the switch.
Ten teams that had the goods to get Gasol
By Chad Ford
ESPN.com
Updated: February 5, 2008
"Merry Christmas, L.A."
That sentiment, voiced by Dallas Mavericks coach Avery Johnson upon hearing about the Pau Gasol trade, has been resonating around the NBA.
While just about everyone expected the Memphis Grizzlies to trade Gasol before the Feb. 21 trade deadline, no one predicted it would be this soon or for so little in return. Instead of established players, the Los Angeles Lakers gave the Grizzlies only a package of expiring contracts, draft picks and marginal prospects for Gasol.
While most GMs weren't publicly venting their frustration on having missed out on Gasol, plenty were willing to do so privately.
The excuses ranged from blaming Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace to blaming their owners to ? well ? pointing the finger in just about every direction but their own.
One GM I spoke to asserted he had a better deal to offer, claiming that Wallace didn't return his calls.
Another said that just two weeks ago, Wallace was asking for twice as much in return. If this GM had known the Grizzlies were lowering the asking price on Gasol, he would've made another offer, he said.
A Western Conference GM said the Grizzlies' timing threw him off: "Big trades like this normally don't happen until after the All-Star break. Who would've guessed that the Grizzlies would've jumped the gun and taken such a lopsided deal three weeks before the trade deadline?"
Another prominent GM said his owner vetoed any trade that would've pushed his team into luxury-tax territory.
Sour grapes, anyone?
From the sob stories, two themes emerged:
One, a lot of GMs are more than a little jealous that the Lakers, of all teams, landed Gasol -- especially given the price tag.
Second, it sounds like the Grizzlies didn't walk away with the best deal available.
Given that, we have to ask: Which other teams could have landed Gasol, and what could they have offered?
As a starting point, let's look at the basic parameters of the deal the Grizzlies accepted:
? About $11 million in expiring contracts (Kwame Brown and Aaron McKie)
? A prospect drafted in the middle of the first round in 2007 (Javaris Crittenton)
? A second-round pick from the same draft (Marc Gasol)
? Two first-round picks, likely to be in the No. 20 to 30 range (2008 and 2010)
Which teams could have matched or exceeded that deal? As it turns out, plenty of teams could have.
Here's a look at 10 teams that missed the boat on Gasol (in alphabetical order):
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Atlanta Hawks
Potential offer:
? Josh Childress (3.6 million expiring contract)
? Tyronn Lue ($3.5 million expiring contract)
? Lorenzen Wright ($3.25 million expiring contract)
? Anthony Johnson ($2.8 million expiring contract)
? First-round draft pick (2010)
? Note: Shelden Williams or perhaps Marvin Williams could have been included in place of Childress
Why the deal would have worked for Atlanta: Childress is an important sixth man for the team, but the Hawks are stacked with swingmen and probably don't want to pay Childress a lot as a restricted free agent this summer. The rest of the contracts are dead weight.
Gasol would have given the Hawks a much-needed veteran plus flexibility to trade more assets down the road.
Why the deal would have worked for Memphis: The Grizzlies would have received roughly the same amount of cap space. Childress, who has a 17.8 PER (player efficiency rating) this season, is a better player than Crittenton is likely to become, and the Hawks' draft pick (potentially a lottery pick) likely would be worth more than the two picks the Grizzlies received from the Lakers.
The downside is that Childress is a restricted free agent this summer, and the Grizzlies might have had to shell out more than the midlevel exception to keep him.
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Chicago Bulls
Potential offer:
? P.J. Brown ($8 million, prorated, expiring sign-and-trade contract)
? Viktor Khryapa ($1.9 million expiring contract)
? Tyrus Thomas ($3.5 million)
? First-round draft pick -- lottery-protected (2008)
Why the deal would have worked for Chicago: While giving up Thomas and a draft pick might have hurt the Bulls' effort to rebuild with youth, they would have been giving up little in terms of actual on-court contribution while adding what they desperately need -- a low-post scoring presence.
The downside for Chicago would have been that adding Gasol's salary to the books would have pushed them into the luxury tax, something Bulls owner Jerry Reinsdorf is telling general manager John Paxson he won't pay.
Why the deal would have worked for Memphis: The Grizzlies would have received roughly the same amount of cap space.
Thomas has amazing raw tools and would fit a need for the Grizzlies at the 4. He was regarded by many as the top prospect in the 2006 draft, putting him on a much higher plane than Crittenton.
Also, the pick from the Bulls likely would have been in the No. 15-19 range, assuming the Bulls would make the playoffs with Gasol aboard, making it an upgrade over the picks the Lakers sent to Memphis.
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Golden State Warriors
Potential offer:
? Mickael Pietrus ($3.4 million expiring contract)
? Matt Barnes ($3 million expiring contract)
? Austin Croshere ($770,610 expiring contract)
? Patrick O'Bryant ($2.2 million expiring contract)
? Brandan Wright ($2.3 million)
? Kelenna Azubuike ($687,000 expiring contract)
? First-round draft pick
Why the deal would have worked for Golden State: The Warriors would not have given up any of their core players while adding the perfect low-post complement to Don Nelson's run-and-gun system.
O'Bryant is clearly not a Nellie favorite, and Wright is hardly seeing any action either. Given that, getting Gasol would have been quite a coup.
Why the deal would have worked for Memphis: The Grizzlies would have received roughly the same amount of cap space.
Wright, a talented 20-year-old big man, was considered one of the best long-term prospects in last year's draft and could fit right into the hole left by Gasol at power forward.
Azubuike and Pietrus have talent, and O'Bryant was a top prospect in 2006. The Grizzlies would have had the option of bringing them back or letting them walk (as expiring contracts).
One note: Azubuike, Barnes and Pietrus would have had to agree to this trade.
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Los Angeles Clippers
Potential offer:
? Elton Brand ($15.3 million)
? First-round draft pick (2008)
Why the deal would have worked for the Clippers: There's a chance Brand will bolt this summer when he has a chance to opt out of his deal.
Adding Gasol would've given the Clippers a solid, younger front line while preserving their flexibility to make other deals. And as a bonus, they would have kept Gasol out of the hands of the Lakers.
Why the deal would have worked for Memphis: Brand is a useful commodity in any scenario, and his contract could have provided the Grizzlies with several appealing options.
If he had decided to return next season, he would have upgraded the team, since he's a better player than Gasol and a better fit on the Grizzlies' front line.
If he had wanted to become a free agent, the Grizzlies could have let him walk (and cleared cap space) or worked out a sign-and-trade with him and another team.
Or he and the Grizzlies could have agreed on a long-term deal to keep him in Memphis.
Also, the Clippers' 2008 first-round pick almost certainly will be a lottery pick of more value than the two picks the Lakers gave the Grizzlies.
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Miami Heat
Potential offer:
? Jason Williams ($8.9 million expiring contract)
? Alonzo Mourning ($2.7 million expiring contract)
? Daequan Cook ($1.1 million)
? Alexander Johnson ($770,610)
? Two first-round draft picks
Why the deal would have worked for Miami: If the Heat are going to make one last push for the playoffs with Shaquille O'Neal (who has two more years on his contract after this season, at $20 million per year), they need more help for Dwyane Wade.
Getting Gasol would have given them another scorer and some depth in the frontcourt.
Why the deal would have worked for Memphis: This trade would have probably been a wash with the Lakers deal.
The Grizzlies would have cleared a similar amount of cap room, and Cook is on par with Crittenton as a prospect.
The two future first-round draft picks might have turned out to be more valuable than the Lakers' picks, especially in the long run. But Miami already owes a pick to Minnesota, so it would have been awhile before the Grizzlies actually received the picks, which might have been a problem.
One solution that might have made a trade with Miami work for Memphis would have been to include Brian Cardinal, whom the Grizzlies have been trying to move for years. The Heat could have sent back Smush Parker and Dorell Wright's expiring contract.
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New Jersey Nets
Potential offer:
? Jamaal Magloire ($4 million expiring contract)
? Bostjan Nachbar ($2.5 million expiring contract)
? Antoine Wright ($1.6 million expiring contract)
? Nenad Krstic ($1.9 million expiring contract)
? Darrell Armstrong ($770,610 expiring contract)
? Malik Allen ($770,610 expiring contract)
? Two first-round draft picks
Why the deal would have worked for New Jersey: The Nets might prefer to move Jason Kidd and/or Vince Carter and start rebuilding. But both players are proving difficult to move.
The other direction to go would be to add a low-post scoring presence. Gasol would have been a great fit. The Nets' payroll would have been totally wrapped up in four guys (Kidd, Carter, Gasol, Richard Jefferson), but the team would have become strong again.
Why the deal would have worked for Memphis: The deal would have cleared about the same amount of cap room.
Krstic should be a very nice player again once he recovers from knee surgery. He will be a restricted free agent this summer, but the Grizzlies could have locked him up fairly inexpensively.
And the two first-round picks should be better than those the Lakers gave up.
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Orlando Magic
Potential offer:
? Keyon Dooling ($3.6 million expiring contract)
? Pat Garrity ($3.8 million expiring contract)
? Maurice Evans ($1.7 million expiring contract)
? J.J. Redick ($2 million)
? Draft rights to Fran Vazquez
? Two first-round draft picks
Why the deal would have worked for Orlando: The Magic are an up-and-coming team, but they lack depth on the front line. Rashard Lewis is playing out of position at the 4. Put Gasol at power forward and move Lewis back to the 3 -- with Turkoglu providing All-Star level support at both positions -- and the Magic would have had perhaps the best front line in the NBA, considering Dwight Howard's presence at center.
Why the deal would have worked for Memphis: The Grizzlies would have received roughly the same amount of cap space.
Redick is a former lottery pick who can really shoot -- perhaps he's not a better prospect than Crittenton, but he's probably on the same tier. Vazquez is a better international prospect than Marc Gasol.
And those two first-round picks are likely to be better than the picks Memphis got from the Lakers.
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Phoenix Suns
Potential offer:
? Shawn Marion ($16.4 million, can opt out after season)
? Atlanta's 2008 first-round draft pick
Why the deal would have worked for Phoenix: The Suns are looking for size and have been shopping Marion for two years. Meanwhile, he asked to be traded during training camp and might opt out of his contract, leaving Phoenix empty-handed.
The Suns actually would have saved some money in the short term and wouldn't have had to worry anymore about Marion's moods or negotiating position. While Gasol wouldn't have given them the toughness they need, he would have been a great fit in coach Mike D'Antoni's system.
As for the draft pick, the Suns don't seem to value those, usually selling them or trading them away.
Why the deal would have worked for Memphis: The Grizzlies would have cleared a great amount of cap room if Marion opted out of his contract, which would have been expected, given the choice of staying in Memphis or leaving for a long-term contract elsewhere. Also, that could have led to a sign-and-trade opportunity for Memphis to land a player it might have wanted this summer.
If Marion had decided not to opt out, his contract would still be expiring in 2009.
Atlanta's draft pick likely will be a late-lottery or mid-first-round pick, which is probably more valuable than the pair of picks the Lakers gave up.
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San Antonio Spurs
Potential offer:
? Brent Barry ($5.5 million expiring contract)
? Francisco Elson ($3 million expiring contract )
? Robert Horry ($3.6 million expiring contract)
? Ian Mahinmi ($625,000)
? Two first-round draft picks (2008 and 2010)
Why the deal would have worked for San Antonio: Adding Gasol would've injected new life into the franchise. With Gasol and Tim Duncan manning the frontline and Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili in the backcourt, the Spurs would've been back on top of the West. The downside would be the serious luxury tax ramifications of adding Gasol. But he'd probably be worth it.
Why the deal would have worked for Memphis: This is virtually an identical deal to what the Lakers offered Memphis. The Grizzlies would have received roughly the same amount of cap space.
Mahinmi is a prospect, albeit a very raw one, who can play the 4.
The two first-round picks, like the Lakers, would've likely been very late first-round picks.
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Toronto Raptors
Potential offer:
? Andrea Bargnani ($4.8 million)
? Carlos Delfino ($1.8 million expiring contract)
? Juan Dixon ($2.5 million expiring contract)
? Joey Graham ($1.6 million)
? Jamario Moon ($770,610)
Why the deal would have worked for Toronto: The franchise is high on Bargnani and Moon, but Gasol alongside Chris Bosh would have given the Raptors one of the best front lines in basketball. Given the strength throughout the roster, the Raptors would have been real competitors to the Celtics and the Pistons.
Why the deal would have worked for Memphis: The Grizzlies would not have cleared a lot of cap room, but they would have received some very interesting young players, especially Bargnani (the No. 1 pick in the 2006 draft) and Moon, an older rookie who is likely to be a first team All-Rookie selection this year.
Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.
