SMF - Just Installed!
and he's a danger to do it himself.
Obviously, the two protagonists are Kidd and Harris. So let me ask you a provocative question that I brought up when the three-way version of this deal was kicked around: Would you trade Harris for Kidd, straight up? Based on notoriety alone, most people would offer a quick "yes." But shine that light a little closer. Kidd's PER this season is 16.06, while Harris is way ahead at 18.72. This may shock some people who have seen only the reports of his triple-doubles, but Kidd is scoring at a much lower rate this season, he's shooting a hideous 36.6 percent from the field, and his turnover rate has skyrocketed. While he's far from the only culprit, his decline is one reason the Nets are 25th in Offensive Efficiency. The Mavs, in contrast, were second with Harris as quarterback, until injured his ankle on Jan. 27; since then, they've dropped to fifth. Per 40 minutes, Harris averages nearly seven points more than Kidd, which is huge. He also gets to the line more than twice as often and shoots a far better percentage from the field. His true shooting percentage of 59.2 dwarfs Kidd's 48.3. Think about that difference for a second -- for every nine shots they take (including free throws), Harris has a one-point advantage. Finally, Harris is a major asset at the defensive end; he has the quickness to defend the Parkers, Pauls and Nashes of the West and was second in the league in offensive fouls drawn last season, according to 82games.com. By my methods, he was the best defensive point guard in the league in 2006-07. Unfortunately, the one guy he struggled against was Baron Davis, a fact that may be seared in the Mavs' memories given how last season ended. Kidd's two big advantages are passing and rebounding, and the differences in those categories are gargantuan, make no mistake. But if you break it down, it seems his numbers in those two categories might decline in Dallas' system. As far as assists go, the Mavs are one of the league's most isolation-heavy teams and annually have among the league's lowest rates of assisted baskets; the Nets are the opposite and are annually among the highest. It's possible Dallas changes some of that to take advantage of Kidd, of course. Still, I imagine the high-post isos for Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard will remain the bread-and-butter of the offense. Additionally, Kidd's passing skills are most lethal in transition, but the Mavs run infrequently. While some still imagine Dallas as a Wild West Don Nelson outfit, the Mavs have been one of the league's slowest-paced teams since Avery Johnson took over. On the rebounds, New Jersey's frontcourt rebounding was historically bad for the first two months of this season, as I mentioned in another piece -- leaving a ton of boards available for Kidd to grab. In fact, Kidd's rebound rate has declined quite a bit since Josh Boone took over for Jason Collins; fewer caroms have been left over for the guards. Similarly, he won't have as many boards available for him to snag in Dallas, where the Mavs are already eighth in the league in defensive rebound rate (nearly all of Kidd's boards are defensive). OK, so he won't score as much as Harris and he might lose a bit on his rate of rebounds and assists. One can still come up with some offsetting positives. For starters, Kidd is a leader in a locker room that appears in need of one. Dallas' testicular fortitude has been questioned in the past two postseasons, so perhaps he can make a difference there. And it's possible he'll be more motivated in Big D than he was in New Jersey; at the very least, I suspect he'll suffer from fewer headaches. In addition, Kidd is a good defender against bigger guards, which means Dallas might be able to play him and Jason Terry together for 40 minutes in place of the 30 scoreless minutes they were getting each night from the Eddie Jones-Hassell combo. But before you get too excited, look into the future. Kidd is 10 years older and costs five times as much as Harris. Even after Harris' extension kicks in Kidd will be triple the cost. Which player would you rather have in 2008-09? What about in 2009-10, presuming the Mavs extend Kidd, when he'll be 36 and Harris is 26? I know, I know -- this move was made primarily with this season in mind. So let's say after all that, you still like Kidd better than Harris. Do you like him so much better that you're willing to include your best defensive big man and two first-round draft choices? The Mavs are 5-5 since Harris went out. It's not a good 5-5 either. Of the wins, two were against Memphis and one came against Milwaukee; the losses included one-sided setbacks against Detroit, New Jersey and Philadelphia. In fact, the irony of this trade is that a big reason for Dallas' recent struggles is that Harris has been injured. That takes us to an aspect of this trade nobody is paying any attention to: Harris' huge impact on the Mavs' success over the past two seasons. In 2006-07, when Dallas won 67 games, guess who had the biggest on-court/off-court point differential? Hint: It wasn't the MVP. According to 82games.com, Dallas was a whopping plus-14.2 points per 48 minutes with Harris on the court. Moreover, the Harris-Nowitzki combo was the single most effective player combination in the league.
Kidd is still good defensively but not appreciably better than either Paul or Williams if at all. He is way ahead of Parker and Nash, though. Its a toss-up with Davis. If Baron cared about defense, he'd be pretty darn good in his own right.
Not a good start...Kidd: 37 min, 8 pts, 6 reb, 5 assts, 3 stls, 6 toPaul: 41 min, 31 pts, 5 reb, 11 assts, 9 stls, 1 toAnd a loss by the Mavs to fall closer to the Rockets, Warriors, Nuggets than the Spurs, Hornets, Lakers and Suns.
