One way to improve all star balloting

[Lurker]

Hollinger over at ESPN blogged about a way to improve the all star selection process.  It was triggered by a conversation he was having with Buford (Spurs GM).  Buford described the Spurs lineup as a point guard, two wings and two bigs.  He went on to say that the wing spots and bigs were interchangable and that many teams approach thier lineup the same way.  So Hollinger's suggestion...use those "positions" to define the voting.  In other words fans would vote for 1 PG, 2 wings and 2 bigs.  Coaches would use the same positions to fill out the roster.  Here is his conclusion...

This would have several benefits. First, it would eliminate most of the truly heinous choices in recent seasons (step forward, Jamaal Magloire), when coaches felt obliged to take a "true" center even when there wasn't one worth taking.

Second, it would increase the quality of the All-Star Game itself, because we'd be guaranteed to have two decent point guards on each side.

Third, it would eliminate the problem of coming up with 12 centers for the ballot in each conference. Identifying 12 ballot-worthy points guards wouldn't be nearly as hard, and with both power forwards and centers in the pool, finding 24 qualified "bigs" also wouldn't be as challenging.

And finally, it would be vastly easier to make comparisons. Right now we're trying to decide between Carlos Boozer and Josh Howard at the forward spot, or between Manu Ginobili and Baron Davis at guard. Doesn't this process become much easier if we're only comparing players with similar roles and responsibilities?

Here is the link but it is an insider article which is why I didn't post the entire blog entry.
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3197914&name=hollinger_john

IMO this is a very workable solution.  It does reflect the trend in the NBA towards smaller lineups and more emphasis on perimeter offense.  There will still be controversy...for instance the West has at least 5 point guards that deserve to be considered and at most 3 would probably make it.

Just to head off questions...the 5 PGs that I came up with off the top of my head in alphabetical order:
Davis
Nash
Parker
Paul
Williams 

[westkoast]

I think that would be a better way to approach it honestly.  The whole is he a 5 is he not a 5 is lame.  They are all bigs.  Why is ESPN.com doing whole write ups on if Duncan is a center or power forward.    In fact if you look at certain squads their 5 really would be a 4 in some cases.  The Utah Jazz for example have Okur playing center but he's not really a true center.  A bit undersized and plays mainly on the perimeter.

I wish there was also a way to include fan voting but at the same time take into consideration how well a team and the player itself is doing.  Yao would have got the starting center job in the all-star game if he was posting 10 and 10 numbers.  Even if Houston was in 2nd to last place, he would get the starting job spot.  I realize people will be left off even if they have good years.  Not everyone can make the all-star team.  However I think the Chinese vote is swaying things too much in Houston's favor after that thread you made a week or so ago.  Which btw sparked an awesome debate between my friends and I the other day while watching the game.

[Skandery]

Just to head off questions...the 5 PGs that I came up with off the top of my head in alphabetical order:
Davis
Nash
Parker
Paul
Williams

Well, Parker's off, that one's easy. 


Next off is actually, probably Deron Williams as much as I hate to say it.  Paul is MVP this year, Nash is Nash, and Davis has been on the same Planet as those two.   

[Lurker]

Just to head off questions...the 5 PGs that I came up with off the top of my head in alphabetical order:
Davis
Nash
Parker
Paul
Williams

Well, Parker's off, that one's easy. 


Next off is actually, probably Deron Williams as much as I hate to say it.  Paul is MVP this year, Nash is Nash, and Davis has been on the same Planet as those two.   

Not so fast on Parker...

Hollinger Stats: Player Efficiency Rating - Point Guard
RNK Player GP Min FG% FT% TS% Ast TO Usg ORR DRR RebR PER
1 Chris Paul, NOR 35 37.7 .488 .881 .580 32.7 8.5 27.2 2.1 9.7 5.8 28.49
2 Chauncey Billups, DET 37 33.7 .450 .901 .620 30.9 8.7 23.0 1.9 8.5 5.2 24.29
3 Steve Nash, PHO 37 34.1 .514 .897 .643 41.2 12.7 23.3 1.1 10.0 5.8 22.83
4 T.J. Ford, TOR 17 25.9 .487 .854 .548 30.7 11.0 28.0 2.3 6.4 4.3 22.26
5 Jose Calderon, TOR 38 30.5 .509 .909 .591 42.0 7.3 19.1 1.6 10.6 6.0 21.59
6 Baron Davis, GSW 39 38.9 .423 .738 .529 25.9 8.9 25.5 3.5 9.8 6.6 21.57
7 Tony Parker, SAS 32 34.7 .492 .741 .549 23.8 10.0 27.9 1.6 9.0 5.3 21.13
8 Deron Williams, UTH 39 36.9 .513 .777 .597 31.6 12.2 24.2 1.3 8.3 4.8 20.51
9 Jason Terry, DAL 38 31.2 .487 .831 .606 20.2 7.1 19.8 1.2 8.4 5.0 19.41
10 Devin Harris, DAL 34 30.9 .472 .820 .581 26.7 12.1 21.8 1.6 7.5 4.7 18.29


Based on this rating Parker is right there with Baron.  And ahead of D-Will.

And here is another rating system that shows those as the top 5 in the west...

                                  Point Guards
               MyTendex     (min 20 games)     
        Player             Team MyTend
  1) paul,chris            NOr   29.19
  2) nash,steve            Pho   26.24   
  3) iverson,allen         Den   25.49     
  4) davis,baron           GSW   25.29     
  5) kidd,jason            NJN   23.89     
  6) williams,deron        Uta   22.87     
  7) billups,chauncey      Det   22.07     
  parker,tony           San   19.81     
  9) calderon,jose         Tor   19.66     
 10) williams,mo           Mil   18.73   
  ** Avg for Position = 11.66.       


Now having shown IMHO that if you are limited to 3 point guards that it should be Nash, Paul & then the other 3 are a tossup.  However the way voting currently is done the coaches have to vote for 2 guards and 2 at large spots (as well as 2 forwards and a center).  And although Parker is routinely put down by fans there have been many instances where it has been reported that coaches like his game. My guess is that one of the Spurs guards will be on the all star team...I would choose Parker over Manu.  But I think that the coaches will pick Manu and give Baron the nod as the 3rd pg on the roster.  And like I said in the other thread it is a real shame that TMac will take the spot of a more deserving player.

     

[westkoast]

Just to head off questions...the 5 PGs that I came up with off the top of my head in alphabetical order:
Davis
Nash
Parker
Paul
Williams

Well, Parker's off, that one's easy. 


Next off is actually, probably Deron Williams as much as I hate to say it.  Paul is MVP this year, Nash is Nash, and Davis has been on the same Planet as those two.   

Not so fast on Parker...

Hollinger Stats: Player Efficiency Rating - Point Guard
RNK Player GP Min FG% FT% TS% Ast TO Usg ORR DRR RebR PER
1 Chris Paul, NOR 35 37.7 .488 .881 .580 32.7 8.5 27.2 2.1 9.7 5.8 28.49
2 Chauncey Billups, DET 37 33.7 .450 .901 .620 30.9 8.7 23.0 1.9 8.5 5.2 24.29
3 Steve Nash, PHO 37 34.1 .514 .897 .643 41.2 12.7 23.3 1.1 10.0 5.8 22.83
4 T.J. Ford, TOR 17 25.9 .487 .854 .548 30.7 11.0 28.0 2.3 6.4 4.3 22.26
5 Jose Calderon, TOR 38 30.5 .509 .909 .591 42.0 7.3 19.1 1.6 10.6 6.0 21.59
6 Baron Davis, GSW 39 38.9 .423 .738 .529 25.9 8.9 25.5 3.5 9.8 6.6 21.57
7 Tony Parker, SAS 32 34.7 .492 .741 .549 23.8 10.0 27.9 1.6 9.0 5.3 21.13
8 Deron Williams, UTH 39 36.9 .513 .777 .597 31.6 12.2 24.2 1.3 8.3 4.8 20.51
9 Jason Terry, DAL 38 31.2 .487 .831 .606 20.2 7.1 19.8 1.2 8.4 5.0 19.41
10 Devin Harris, DAL 34 30.9 .472 .820 .581 26.7 12.1 21.8 1.6 7.5 4.7 18.29


Based on this rating Parker is right there with Baron.  And ahead of D-Will.

And here is another rating system that shows those as the top 5 in the west...

                                  Point Guards
               MyTendex     (min 20 games)     
        Player             Team MyTend
  1) paul,chris            NOr   29.19
  2) nash,steve            Pho   26.24   
  3) iverson,allen         Den   25.49     
  4) davis,baron           GSW   25.29     
  5) kidd,jason            NJN   23.89     
  6) williams,deron        Uta   22.87     
  7) billups,chauncey      Det   22.07     
  parker,tony           San   19.81     
  9) calderon,jose         Tor   19.66     
 10) williams,mo           Mil   18.73   
  ** Avg for Position = 11.66.       


Now having shown IMHO that if you are limited to 3 point guards that it should be Nash, Paul & then the other 3 are a tossup.  However the way voting currently is done the coaches have to vote for 2 guards and 2 at large spots (as well as 2 forwards and a center).  And although Parker is routinely put down by fans there have been many instances where it has been reported that coaches like his game. My guess is that one of the Spurs guards will be on the all star team...I would choose Parker over Manu.  But I think that the coaches will pick Manu and give Baron the nod as the 3rd pg on the roster.  And like I said in the other thread it is a real shame that TMac will take the spot of a more deserving player.

     

Where would Golden State be without Baron Davis tho?

The Spurs didn't seem to be hurting all that bad when Parker was out this year.  Granted they were not as good but not like they lost a ton of games with him being out.

[Skandery]

Lurker:

Who are the Top 3 PGs from the West on your first rating?

Who are the Top 3 PGs from the West on your second rating? (if you consider Iverson a 2-guard and he is because Anthony Carter and Chucky Atkins have been their PGs)

You actually backed up my three picks for the All-Star game for me nicely, thanks.  

Next, I consider Baron Davis more important and more responsible for the success of the Warriors than is Parker for the success of the Spurs.  So its pretty easy thing for me to strike Parker off.  I will say that I've been impressed by his increase in the assist numbers this year, that's about the only thing that really stands out.  I would also take Deron Williams before Parker and one of your two lists agrees with me.  The one that doesn't is PER which is a little skewed towards players on winning teams.  Did you notice Jason Kidd is nowhere to be found on that list but #5 on the other one.  5th best Point in the West, yeah, definitely Parker.  

[ziggy]

82 games.com has a stat called Hands Rating.  I read the definition once, but can't find the reference now, but basically it is a measure of their ball handling, measuring ball handling turnovers, bad passes, assists etc.  The higher the better.  Thought I would throw into the debate.

Now just to get a couple of debates going, surprisingly Andre Kirilenko has a better hands rating than Tony Parker.  That should set things off again with Skandery and Lurker and Westcoast.

S Nash  -  44.4
J Kidd  -  34.2
J Calderon  -  33.9
C Paul -  33.8
TJ Ford  -  29.7
B Davis -  29.6
A Carter  -  28.2
D Williams  -  28.0
E Watson -  26.8
Anthony Johnson  -  26.4
C Billups  -  25.8
L Ridnour  -  25.4
D Fisher  -  25.0
J Tinsley  -  24.3
Lou Williams  -  22.7
J Terry  -  22.5
Mo Williams  -  22.5
J Nelson  -  22.5
R Felton  -  22.3
S Marbury  -  22.1
M Conley  -  21.8
A Daniels  -  21.7
S Blake - 21.5
D Stoudamire  -  21.1
S Rodriguez  -  20.9
B Roy -  20.8
S Cassell  -  20.6
D Harris  -  19.8
R Alston  -  19.8
S Telfair  -  19.7
N Robinson  -  19.7
T Parker -  19.0
R Rondo  -  18.0
K Hinrich  -  17.8
M Jaric  -  16.1
L Barbosa  -  15.2
J Jack  -  15.1
R Mason  -  14.8
B Udrih  -  14.7
D West  -  13.9
K Lowry  -  13.7
D Gibson  -  12.1
Q Douby  -  6.5


Just a random sampling of other players
LeBron  -  23.0
K Bryant  -  22.2
A Iverson  -  22.1
D Wade  -  20.7
A Kirilenko  -  19.1
Grant Hill  -  18.0
K Garnett  -  15.9
Andre Iguodala  -  15.6
M Ginobili  -  15.3
S Marion  -  15.3
P Pierce  -  15.0
R Allen -  13.6
Willie Green  -  12.9
A Stoudemire  -  8.9
Z Randolph  -  7.5
E Curry  -  4.0

[Joe Vancil]

Now just to get a couple of debates going, surprisingly Andre Kirilenko has a better hands rating than Tony Parker.

Doesn't surprise me.  Kirilenko's a better passer than Parker.

What completely freaks me out is Anthony Carter's ranking.  When did this guy grow a brain?

[Skandery]

Very interesting list, Ziggy.  Just scanning up and down, it correlates pretty well with how good a ball-handler/passer I think a player is.  Not to say there aren't some surprises, though.  Watson, Fisher, Lou Williams, and Sergio being as high as they are.  Mo Williams, Roy, Harris, and Hinrich being as low as they are.  Parker being higher than Ginobili surprises me.  Jose Calderon being 3rd overall doesn't surprise me, the man is a gifted point guard.  It seems like players that have a high assist per 48 minute statistic do very well.  I would venture to guess that LeBron, Iverson, Wade, and Iguodala would do better on this list but TOs and high mpg average probably hurts them.  Interesting, though.

[westkoast]

pfft...we all know I completely and utterly ignore stats Ziggy.

I will say this though.  Tony Parker really only makes one pass consistantly that would warrant an assist if the shot was made.  A drive and dish to Bruce Bowen on the side 3 line.  Throwing the ball to Duncan to watch him bounce the ball a few times on the ground nix's your assist in the box score.  However I would say he's not that great of a passer.  I would say he's decent.

[WayOutWest]

It seems like players that have a high assist per 48 minute statistic do very well.  I would venture to guess that LeBron, Iverson, Wade, and Iguodala would do better on this list but TOs and high mpg average probably hurts them.  Interesting, though.

How often is Parker doubled or pressured?  I was surprised to see Fish that high on the list but then I thought about his role with the Lakers when it comes to passing.  Much like Parker, Fish doesn't not need to be creative to make most of his passes since the offense is so structured.  Guys like Nash and Kidd are doing things on the fly since so many guys are in motion and you have to quickly pick your target.  With the Lakers and Spurs you run a very set offense and guys are expected to be in certain positions, especially TD, so you are usually making "safe" passes.  Guys like Bron, AI, Wade and Kobe at times have to make passes because they are being forced to give up the ball so it's not the best situation to make decisions and passes. 

Parker is an average passer but who knows how he would fair on a team that plays a less structured game.  I have not seen Parker show signs of having above average court vision or passing ability but Parker has been with the Spurs from day 1 so even if he had those skills he wouldn't get a chance to show case them.  Just look at Nash, how many fans knew the guys name or face before he came into his own on the Mavs.  Who knew how talented the guy was before then, pretty much nobody.  The first glimpse I ever got of Nash's talent was in the 02 playoffs against the Kings.  The Kings/Mavs series was supposed to be an 80's throw back to fast break basketball.  The Mavs were a better team in terms of fast breaks but the Kings were a much more balanced team, they had an inside presence with Vlade and Webber and their half court motion offense was near perfect but STILL Nash and the Mavs looked like a fun team and Nash was making some amazing plays out of nothing.  I say nothing cause at times it seemed that Nellie just rolls a basketball out on the court and says "go".