Big trade by Tigers, this is almost as good as getting Oden, but not quite

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I was out all last week so no chance to post on this, but now that I am back I am going to gloat about the Tigers stunning trade.

Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and 4 other minor leaguers is absolute highway robbery.  Miguel Cabrera is a close as you can get to Albert Pujols without actually getting Pujols.  He is one the best hitters to come along in years, an absolute 1st ballot hall-of-famer based upon what he is doing today.  I would have done the deal even if Willis wasn't included.

This is being portrayed as giving up your youth and mortgaging your future for a chance to win now.  I think this is a misrepresentation of the reality of the deal.  Cabrera will be 25 next year and Maybin will be 21, and Maybin will not contribute as a star for another couple of years, say not until he is 23-24 (if he ever does).  So they gave up maybe 1 years peak production from him, and even then he will never be close to the player that Cabrera is or will be. 

Willis is only 3 years older than Miller, and Miller is at least another year or 2 away from being a #1 or a #2.  I think Miller has a good chance to be good ML pitcher, I don't think he will ever be a big star.  He will always struggle with his control, and I also think he is the type of pitcher who will have shoulder problems, based upon his motion.
Willis had a BAD year last year, and he has some concerning trends.  His K rate has dropped, his walk and HR rate has increased.  That is not a good sign, but he has a good track record, except for last year.  It is like the entire baseball world has forgotten that Josh Beckett in 2006 was arguably equal to the Willis of 2007, and Beckett followed up that bad 2006 season with a season that has caused people to say he his now the best pitcher in baseball (which he isn't, Santana, and Peavy are better for sure and Halladay, Oswalt, Carpenter, Erik Bedard and Dan Haren are just as good if not better).  Look at Beckett in 2006 with a great Red Sox team, and Willis in 2007 with a bad Florida Marlins team

Beckett (2006)
ERA  -  5.01
K/9 innings  -  6.95
BB/9 innings  -  3.25
HR/9 innings  -  1.58
BAA  -  .243

Willis 2007
ERA  -  5.17
K/9 innings  -  6.40
BB/9 innings  -  3.80
HR/9 innings  -  1.26
BAA  -  .268

Not much difference, though Beckett is a little better.  I think you will see Willis return to the form of 2003-2006 which is
ERA  -  3.43
K/9 innings  -  6.73
BB/9 innings  -  2.83
HR/9 innings  -  0.72
BAA  -  .256

Those are pretty darn good numbers for a #3-4 starter.  Considering the run support he should get from the Tigers offense this is probably good for 14-17 wins in the AL.  Miller would have been lucky to get 12 wins IMHO.

[Reality]

The Angels offered nothing? 
This is the best offer Florida got? 

Why were the Yankees and Bosox obsessing over Yohan while these two were there for the taking?
I don't get it.  Congratulations Detroit.

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The Angels offered nothing? 
This is the best offer Florida got? 

Why were the Yankees and Bosox obsessing over Yohan while these two were there for the taking?
I don't get it.  Congratulations Detroit.

Since both Boston and Yanks have their 3b position tied up I can understand why they focused on Johan. All the better for the Tigers.  At the same time I was hoping the Tigers would offer Maybin and Miller for Santana, but I am very very happy with how it worked out.

There is some serious poker going on in the Johan sweepstakes.  I honestly don't understand why Boston hasn't parted with Ellsbury and Lester already.  I love Jacoby, but come on him and Lester for Johan is an unbelievable deal for Boston.  Johan is without question the best pitcher in the game.  I bet he hasn't missed more than maybe 2 starts in 4 years.  He is a 4 seam, change up pitcher which are the 2 pitches that put the least stress on the elbow, and his motion is so fluid I do not see any shoulder problems with him.  Hall of Fame pitchers only come along every 3-4 years, and are seldom if ever traded.  You have a chance to get the best pitcher in baseball BAR NONE, WITHOUT A DOUBT and you trade guys like Ellsbury and Lester without hesitation.  He had his worst year in 4 last year, and he was still an all-star and 5th in the Cy Young voting.  Beckett has a bad year and his ERA is over 5.00, he gives up nearly 40 dingers, and 75 walks, and he is supposed to be better than Johan.  Utter poppycock.

Someone will finally blink and Johan will move, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

As far as the Angels, they just couldn't part with Ervin Santana, or Joe Saunders.  I am being sarcastic, but only just a little.  They have been in rumors for years for big name players and they never pull the trigger.  I like the Angels, but I think they wish they were the Dodgers, but don't have the guts to actually really go for it.  They will probably keep Santana and trade Kendrick, which will be a huge mistake.  Maybe the Tigers can talk them into a Kendrick for Polanco deal .  Howie is the real deal.  He will win a couple of batting titles.

[Reality]

Since both Boston and Yanks have their 3b position tied up I can understand why they focused on Johan.

Okay right, duh Boston just reupped Lowell and Yanks kept ARod.
Willis had to be part of a Carbrea deal only?
Couldn't Yanks, Sox or other teams have offered much more for Willis?  Isn't Willis still capable of 20 wins zig on a good team?  Or is his fastball arm fading?  He sure looked good for parts of last year.

There is some serious poker going on in the Johan sweepstakes.  I honestly don't understand why Boston hasn't parted with Ellsbury and Lester already.

  Yeah I know they must feel Ellsbury can become a perennial All Star at .300+ and a bunch of stolen bases.  Do they also feel Lester is not only in full remission healthwise but only going to get better pitching?

As far as the Angels, they just couldn't part with Ervin Santana, or Joe Saunders.  I am being sarcastic, but only just a little.  They have been in rumors for years for big name players and they never pull the trigger.  I like the Angels, but I think they wish they were the Dodgers, but don't have the guts to actually really go for it.

Moreno seems to be a one year hyper politician type and now shows his true colors.  I lost virtually all respect for him when it was revealed the Angels stadium had been sighted 40+ times last season for rat droppings violations. (I posted the article somewhere here on the board.)  Compared to one or two instances for both Padres and Dogers.  Moreno was unwilling to pay extra money (pssssh "extra"  :: read, above minimum wage) to have the stadium cleaned up immediately after the games.  Instead he let the used food and garbage set until morning.  Gross!  Cheap!  Finally he was more or less forced to do this by the health dept.  I was tipped off to the rat pack years ago by a full season ticket holder.  Before i had consumed even one nacho.