ESPN The Magazine: Crunch-Time Quiz
By Chris Broussard
ESPN The Magazine
You lounge on the couch and second-guess everything the coach on the TV does. At the bar with your boys, you rant about boneheaded play calls. You think you could have taken T-Mac and Yao to the promised land, that you'd have Shaq and D-Wade on the verge of a repeat. It all looks so easy.
Well, let's see how much you know about this game. We're not talking about judging a dunk contest. This is about delivering in the moment of truth, making the decisions that earn the real coaches their money. In the last three postseasons, 35 games have been decided by three points or less, and another 10 went to OT but ended with a larger margin. So, there are five seconds left in Game 7, and 20,000 fans are screaming in your ear. Can you keep your wits long enough to draw up the right play or conjure the call that gets your team the win?
Yeah, you say? Prove it.
Here's a test to see just how well you'd navigate crunch time. So sharpen those No. 2's, put away your flash cards and keep your eyes on your own paper. Coaches, execs and scouts representing 21 NBA teams will be proctoring. Their consensus is the correct answer. What are you waiting for? The clock is ticking.
QUESTION 1
Your team is up by three with seven seconds left in the game. Your opponent is inbounding the ball at halfcourt. What is your best defense?
A. Play straight up, trusting your team to get a stop and, in particular, to contest the three-point shot.
B. Foul as soon as one of your opponents gets the ball -- but be sure he's not in the act of shooting.
C. A good offense.
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QUESTION 2
Your team has the ball, down by three with 10 seconds left, and you have one timeout. What's your move?
A. Go for the quick two, then foul after you score.
B. Attempt a game-tying three-pointer.
C. Run the bark-like-a-dog play. Never fails.
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QUESTION 3
You're trailing by one possession when you get the ball with seven seconds left. How do you maximize your chance of getting the best shot?
A. Call a timeout to advance the ball to halfcourt and diagram a play.
B. Push the ball up court to try to catch the D scrambling.
C. Get the ball to Reggie Miller, wherever he is.
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QUESTION 4
With 18 ticks left and the shot clock off, you're trailing by three or fewer and your opponent is inbounding. How do you respond?
A. Foul right away.
B. Go for a quick steal before fouling.
C. Turn the shot clock back on!
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QUESTION 5
Okay, now you're down by only one with 28 seconds left. Your opponent has the ball. What do you do?
A. Foul -- either right away or after going for a quick steal.
B. D-up and try to get a stop.
C. Slam the point guard into the scorer's table to coax his teammates off the bench. Then get 'em next game.
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QUESTION 6
You're up by three or fewer with six seconds left, and the opposition is inbounding in the frontcourt. What do you do?
A. Put a defender on the inbounder.
B. Double-team your opponent's best player.
C. Save the cheerleader.
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QUESTION 7
How should you manage your timeouts in the second half?
A. Use them whenever you need them, especially to stop a run.
B. Make sure you've got plenty available in the last two minutes, especially to set up a last-second shot.
C. Use 'em all at once. In-game nap!
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Answers
1)Answer: B
Welcome to the great debate of the endgame. After all the spirited back-and-forth, though, it comes down to this: You've got to put your pride aside. It's just not worth risking a game-tying three when you could send someone to the line where he can get only two. This strategy makes even more sense if your opponents have no timeouts: Still behind, they won't be able to advance the ball to midcourt if they do get the ball back.
This is no etched-in-stone proclamation, though. Fouling was the choice of only 56% of our experts. There seems to be a nagging fear that one of your guys will catch one of theirs in the act of shooting (ask Pacers fans about Larry Johnson's four-point play for the worst-case scenario). Plus, teams worry a guy will make the first free throw and miss the second on purpose, leaving open the possibility of a tip-in, another foul or a tap-out for a winning trey.
Still, the odds are with the fouling team (and yes, we know that NBA players hit only about 36% of their threes). In Game 2 of the 2004 Finals, the Pistons led the Lakers by three with 10.9 seconds to go. LA inbounded to Shaq (who better to hack?), yet incredibly, Detroit didn't foul. The ball ended up in the hands of Kobe, who drained a trey over Rip Hamilton with 2.1 seconds left. The Lakers won in OT.
"There was a time when I'd say, Let my defense do it," says one Eastern Conference exec. "But the longer I've stayed around and been able to take my ego out of it, the more I've learned to foul."
2)Answer: A
This quiz may be tough, but this question is a gimme, at least according to our surveyed experts, 85% of whom said driving to the hoop for the quick two is a no-brainer. If you launch a triple and miss, you've basically written yourself out of the game. Even the best offensive-rebounding teams get the ball back only about 30% of the time. And then you still have to kick it back out, find an open shooter and & well, you get the idea.
So take two points if you can get them. It extends the game and puts the burden on your opponent to make both free throws. In Game 2 of the Western Conference semis against the Warriors, the Jazz showed quite by accident why this strategy is the right one. Down by three with nine seconds left, Utah decided to feed Mehmet Okur for a corner three. He hit the shot, but with his foot on the line. Still, the Jazz had plenty of time to foul, and sure enough, Baron Davis missed one of two. The Jazz called time, inbounded from midcourt -- and Deron Williams hit a leaner in the lane to send the game to OT. Reprieved, the Jazz ran away with the game and, soon, the series.
By the way, if you're married to the heroic three scenario, keep this in mind: "Usually the best three-point looks come off a drive," an Eastern Conference coach points out. So sending one of your guys to the hole opens the chance that a defender will slide over to help, leaving his man alone beyond the arc. Then you can have your cake and eat the two.
3)Answer: A
"Red Auerbach always attacked the defense before it got set," says one Eastern Conference exec. "But in most cases, I think it's best to call a timeout to draw up a play for your best player." A slight majority (55%) of our experts agrees. Granted, this decision depends a little on your personnel. Michael Jordan didn't need a timeout when he dribbled up the floor and nailed his climactic jumper in the 1998 Finals. But how many teams have an MJ?
A coach with more-terrestrial players is better off taking a timeout. It's a safer bet than rolling the dice on frenzied transition and having the ball end up in the wrong guy's hands -- or three rows deep.
That said, the vocal 45% minority produced plenty of counterarguments. Most said up-tempo teams such as Phoenix and Golden State should push, since they're used to that style and usually can get a good look before the D is set. Plus, added a West scout, "If you call time and set up a play, sometimes everyone knows where you're going, and they can take you out of what you're trying to do."
Most coaches, though, are control freaks, and most players need direction. So call a TO.
4)Answer: B
Getting 80% of NBA folks to agree on anything is a feat, so giving away four or five seconds for a chance at a steal qualifies as a clear-cut choice. But there's plenty of disagreement over how exactly to go about doing that. Some experts advocate trapping the ballhandler to set up a steal or to force the opponent's top foul shooter to give up the rock. Others think trapping is dangerous. "Just play good, hard, denial defense," one longtime assistant says. "If you try to trap, they can pass the ball around, and you may never catch up with them to foul."
That's what happened recently to the Rockets, in Game 7 against the Jazz. A Houston trap with nine seconds left turned disastrous as Utah nearly ran out the clock with a pair of long, diagonal passes. No matter what, you have to foul with time left to score at the other end -- maybe more than once.
5)Answer: B
"This is one of the toughest questions of all time," says one West coach. "It's a total gut feel. What do you think of your team's defense?" Ultimately, 63% of the guts we asked agreed to play out the possession, but under only the precise conditions we put forth. If we had suggested 26 seconds were left (in other words, a two-second differential between the game and shot clocks), they would have opted to foul.
Why do those two seconds change things? You need them to get a quality shot. Your opponent is more likely to shoot with three or four seconds left on the shot clock than right as it expires, and adding those ticks to what's left on the game clock leaves enough time to grab the board, call time and set a play. You have to get the stop, of course, but if you do, you're in position to win. Foul, and you're hoping to tie.
The Nets executed this strategy beautifully to close out the Raptors in Game 6 of their first-round series. There was a little more time left (36 seconds), but the principle that governed their choice was largely the same. Trailing by one, the Nets stiffened on D, forced a missed shot, grabbed the rebound and called time, during which they drew up Richard Jefferson's series-winning drive. They trusted their D, and it paid off.
6)Answer: A
Remember Derek Fisher's shot? The Spurs sure do. They had Game 5 of the 2004 Western Conference semifinals wrapped up when Fisher, with 0.4 seconds left, caught the inbounds pass and fired a game-winning jumper. What most people don't remember, though, is how the Spurs guarded the Lakers. Instead of planting Robert Horry on the inbounder, they had him double-team a cutting Kobe. It gave Gary Payton a clear path for a picture-perfect pass.
That's why 77% of our experts say to defend the inbounder. As one coach puts it, you don't want him "throwing a dart." So plant a pogoing, frantically waving big man directly in the inbounder's line of sight. The tactic has the added bonus of eliminating a pet play in the league: the one in which the unguarded inbounder receives a quick return for a wide-open three. It might be tempting to keep the ball out of the hands of a Kobe Bryant, but remember, there are plenty more Derek Fishers who can beat you with one clean look.
7)Answer: A
A close call here. Everyone agrees it's ideal to keep a timeout in your pocket for the waning seconds. But plenty of our experts point out that you might never get a last-possession scenario without a few huddles along the way. In fact, 52% think it's more important to stop runs during the meat of the game. Says one East scout, "You don't get to take timeouts home, warm them in the microwave and save them for the next game. Use your timeouts to try to win the game before the last minute."
The Mavs tried to do as much in Game 4 against the Warriors this spring. Sure, they would have loved to have had a timeout to advance the ball with 3.2 seconds left in the game when they trailed by three. Instead, Devin Harris had to toss a prayer toward halfcourt, which was intercepted by Mickael Pietrus. But Avery Johnson knew he had to use his timeouts earlier to keep the fast-breaking, streak-shooting, crowd-crazed Warriors from running his team out of the building.
Still, the other 48% raise valid points. A West coach says, "There are ways to communicate with your guys without calling a timeout. You can use sign language and other things to get your point across." And if teams can do that effectively, conserving precious timeouts for the endgame becomes a major edge.
But it takes a giant leap of faith to believe that a hand signal can stop a 9-0 spurt. And sometimes a coach needs that respite as much as the players. Because, wise guy, the job isn't as easy as it looks.
Results:
So how did you do? Reminder 1-B, 2-A, 3-A, 4-B, 5-B, 6-A, 7-A
6-7 correct: Banners and rings by the bushel. Next up: the owner's daughter.
4-5 correct: You've got the skills. So when you lose, blame it on the refs (injuries will work too).
2-3 correct: Go back to college. Hey, it worked for Pitino.
0-1 correct: The Hawks just called. When can you start?
Chris Broussard is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine.
