#6-7-8 in West gets bunched

[Reality]

No msc, you can't make up another post about as the Sun rises in the East.
But you can check out what is up.
My angle is playoff seats.

With the Kobester having an off night, and Eltie Brand being himself while Chris Kaveman got a wake up speech, the Clipps won a tough one at Staples.  Also Corey Megette and FTs, he must be near #1 in FTAs per minute.
Meaning only a half game in the loss column seperates Lakers Nuggetts Clips.

[WayOutWest]

I hope the Lakers drop to #7 and get the Suns in round 1.  I just can't see the Lakers, who are already offensively challenged, doing much against the Spurs defense.  The Mavs just have too good a balance of offense and defense for the Lakers to win even one game against those guys, although Kobe would pull the Lakers to a couple of victories on his own over the Mavs.

I think the Rockets are going to give the Mavs all they can handle, they have a very good low post game in Yao, and a Kobe like T-Mac to destroy them if they focus on Yao, very Shaq/Kobe like in that regard.

Here is my prediction, the "sleeper" Spurs win the West!  Too much is being made of the Mavs mission to avenge last year, IMO they are going to fall on the sword of SuperPops.

[westkoast]

I hope the Lakers drop to #7 and get the Suns in round 1.  I just can't see the Lakers, who are already offensively challenged, doing much against the Spurs defense.  The Mavs just have too good a balance of offense and defense for the Lakers to win even one game against those guys, although Kobe would pull the Lakers to a couple of victories on his own over the Mavs.

I think the Rockets are going to give the Mavs all they can handle, they have a very good low post game in Yao, and a Kobe like T-Mac to destroy them if they focus on Yao, very Shaq/Kobe like in that regard.

Here is my prediction, the "sleeper" Spurs win the West!  Too much is being made of the Mavs mission to avenge last year, IMO they are going to fall on the sword of SuperPops.

At this point it doesn't matter who they play because they would be lucky to win more then 1-2 games.  They are too out of sync to make it anywhere near the end of the first round let alone the second.  A miracle from god would have to happen for them to make it a legit series against either team.

With that said, if the Lakers have had a little bit of trouble scoring against such powerhouse defensive squads as The Clippers and the Nuggets then how would they fair against the Spurs?  They would be lucky to win one game against them IMO.  The Suns give up alot of points to the Lakers because they are undersized but with Kwame's ankle being an issue I don't see how the Lakers will exploit that.  Bynum cannot do it for an entire game let alone many games in a series.

I also feel the Spurs are the sleeper team.  I've been telling co-workers and friends this over the past month and they look at me like I am an idiot.  Especially my co-workers who work in our PHX office.   To me everyone is sleeping on the Spurs and overhyping the Suns.  The Spurs are the second best team in the WC.  However I don't feel they can get it done against the Mavs unless Timmy hits a stride in the first round.  If he gets on a roll then we are in for a major treat.  The Mavs have improved since last year and the Spurs had problems with them.  Tim Duncan being healthy should make the series a nail biter, can't wait to see it.

[Lurker]

The Mavs have improved since last year and the Spurs had problems with them.  Tim Duncan being healthy should make the series a nail biter, can't wait to see it.

I wouldn't call losing a 7 game series that included 2 OT games as having problems with a team.  Mavs & Spurs are very evenly matched...the Spurs are just the more veteran team and know when it counts to win (Laker fans should understand this).

The Spurs currently have 21 losses.  To put it in perspective here are top 3 teams from last few years...

2003:  Mavs/Spurs 22 losses, Kings 23
2004: Pacers 21 losses, Wolves 24, Spurs 25
2005: Suns 20 losses, Heat/Spurs 23
2006: Pistons 18 losses, Spurs 19, Mavs 22

If Dallas and Phoenix weren't so focused on winning at all costs this year the Spurs record would be very respectable. 

[westkoast]

The Mavs have improved since last year and the Spurs had problems with them.  Tim Duncan being healthy should make the series a nail biter, can't wait to see it.

I wouldn't call losing a 7 game series that included 2 OT games as having problems with a team.  Mavs & Spurs are very evenly matched...the Spurs are just the more veteran team and know when it counts to win (Laker fans should understand this).

The Spurs currently have 21 losses.  To put it in perspective here are top 3 teams from last few years...

2003:  Mavs/Spurs 22 losses, Kings 23
2004: Pacers 21 losses, Wolves 24, Spurs 25
2005: Suns 20 losses, Heat/Spurs 23
2006: Pistons 18 losses, Spurs 19, Mavs 22

If Dallas and Phoenix weren't so focused on winning at all costs this year the Spurs record would be very respectable. 

Well maybe not have problems, I should have worded it better,  but they could not get it done against them.  The Mavs seemed to be too fast for the Spurs last year and that is what my 'had problems with' comment sprung from.  I'd probably should have said had issues with... then been more specific.  I still think the foot speed between the two teams is an issue.

The Spurs are a vet team with alot of expierence and they are the only top team who has any expierence winning a championship in the WC so that right there puts them in a real good spot.   Since the Mavs beat the Spurs last year I think they should be the favored team (in my eyes) until proven otherwise.  Same with Miami and Detroit...I think Detroit has the much better shot for some of the same reasons the Spurs do but Miami won it all last year so that has to be taken into consideration.

One of the main reasons I feel the Spurs are being severly overlooked is the fact they can control tempo so well.  If Duncan hits a stride then it is going to be bad news for everyone else.  When he is really on it is pretty hard for teams to play their own game.

[WayOutWest]

Dirk is going to be the problem for the Spurs, duh, he's a problem for every team.  If they put Bowen on him who guards Howard?  The Spurs are going to be one guy short on D, the Mavs big three are Terry, Dirk and Howard.  IMO one of those guys is going to get a weak defender, unless Manu can step it up and guard Howard and leave Dirk to Bowen.  I think Bowen is not going to have much success on Dirk so you might as well put him on Howard, Parker will do as well as anyone on Terry and leave Dirk to be defended by commitee. 

The reverse will be a problem for the Mavs, they can have their centers do an adequate job on TD, but that will leave Manu and Parker as the X factors, Parker usually doesn't get it done so Manu will have to step up big along with Findawg, they will need to keep the Mavs honest from the outside so they can't pack it in on TD.  The Mavs don't have a Shaq/Amare type guy who will step it up and play TD strait up, so the outside shooting of the Spurs will determine the outcome of that series.  IMO Fins is going to sink or swim for the Spurs in this years playoffs, Manu should continue to be Manu but Fins must be consistent from the outside since they can't rely solely on Manu and Parker is still unproven from the perimeter.

[Reality]

but lurker says the Spurs have no need of an athletic 3 to defend and play O.

[westkoast]

Dirk is going to be the problem for the Spurs, duh, he's a problem for every team.  If they put Bowen on him who guards Howard?  The Spurs are going to be one guy short on D, the Mavs big three are Terry, Dirk and Howard.  IMO one of those guys is going to get a weak defender, unless Manu can step it up and guard Howard and leave Dirk to Bowen.  I think Bowen is not going to have much success on Dirk so you might as well put him on Howard, Parker will do as well as anyone on Terry and leave Dirk to be defended by commitee. 

The reverse will be a problem for the Mavs, they can have their centers do an adequate job on TD, but that will leave Manu and Parker as the X factors, Parker usually doesn't get it done so Manu will have to step up big along with Findawg, they will need to keep the Mavs honest from the outside so they can't pack it in on TD.  The Mavs don't have a Shaq/Amare type guy who will step it up and play TD strait up, so the outside shooting of the Spurs will determine the outcome of that series.  IMO Fins is going to sink or swim for the Spurs in this years playoffs, Manu should continue to be Manu but Fins must be consistent from the outside since they can't rely solely on Manu and Parker is still unproven from the perimeter.

The question is do you risk putting Manu on Howard?  Howard can get him into foul trouble because he is a very jerky player who is tough to guard.  Sort of reminds me of Van Exel when he makes some of his moves.  Manu is a more versatile scorer then Tony Parker is because of his ability to shoot the ball so I don't know if I would do that personally.  I am curious what Pop decides to do when they meet up.

That is not to say that Tim Duncan is not going to cause alot of problems for them.  They got away with putting lesser guys on him last year because he was not 100%.  Diop, Willis, and the other big man (name is on the tip of my tongue) cannot guard him.  Putting Dirk on him would be asking for it big time.

[westkoast]

but lurker says the Spurs have no need of an athletic 3 to defend and play O.

They don't need a 3 to play O but to defend it would help but it is not the end all be all.  I don't think it guarentees them anything.

The other problem is there is not any SF in this league that comes to mind that can lock down Howard....

[Lurker]

but lurker says the Spurs have no need of an athletic 3 to defend and play O.

They don't need a 3 to play O but to defend it would help but it is not the end all be all.  I don't think it guarentees them anything.

The other problem is there is not any SF in this league that comes to mind that can lock down Howard....

IMO the X-factor for Dallas against the Spurs is Harris.  He is the one that gives the Spurs the biggest fits.

Posted by: Reality 
but lurker says the Spurs have no need of an athletic 3 to defend and play O.

Name 1 SF that would be better than Bowen defensively.  And headcases don't count.

[rickortreat]

Dallas is loaded and so are the Suns.  Spurs are right there with them, but are actually 9 games behind the Mavs in the standings.  That should tell you right there why the Mavs would be favored in series along with their playoff victory last year.

This isn't to say that the Spurs are a bad team. They have a great record and more experience that the other teams they compete with out west.  I think the Spurs would beat the Suns in a series, but not Dallas.

The Suns are very capable of winning it all, because of their scoring, but IMO, their lack of D gives them a serious handicap against the other 2.

If Wade can get back in time, the Heat will defend their title.  Detroit can't handle the Heat with Wade.

I see a repeat of last year's finals, but this time Dallas should take it.

[WayOutWest]

IMO the X-factor for Dallas against the Spurs is Harris.  He is the one that gives the Spurs the biggest fits.

Harris is so off and on, don't know how critical he'll be, Avery doesn't like to leave defensive liabilities on the floor unless they're doing well on offense, big change from Mav coaches of the past.  Before they'd see an offensive mismatch as the end all despite their lack of defense on the other side of the court.

Name 1 SF that would be better than Bowen defensively.  And headcases don't count.

Besides Artest, the guy that comes to mind is AK.

[Reality]

Dirk is going to be the problem for the Spurs, duh, he's a problem for every team.  If they put Bowen on him who guards Howard?  The Spurs are going to be one guy short on D, the Mavs big three are Terry, Dirk and Howard.  IMO one of those guys is going to get a weak defender, unless Manu can step it up and guard Howard and leave Dirk to Bowen.  I think Bowen is not going to have much success on Dirk so you might as well put him on Howard, Parker will do as well as anyone on Terry and leave Dirk to be defended by commitee. 

The reverse will be a problem for the Mavs, they can have their centers do an adequate job on TD, but that will leave Manu and Parker as the X factors, Parker usually doesn't get it done so Manu will have to step up big along with Findawg, they will need to keep the Mavs honest from the outside so they can't pack it in on TD.  The Mavs don't have a Shaq/Amare type guy who will step it up and play TD strait up, so the outside shooting of the Spurs will determine the outcome of that series.  IMO Fins is going to sink or swim for the Spurs in this years playoffs, Manu should continue to be Manu but Fins must be consistent from the outside since they can't rely solely on Manu and Parker is still unproven from the perimeter.

Yes that is the real Spurs consensus, that the front office has failed to address the athletic 3 spot.  Stephen Jackson came thru in the 2003 Champs along with Maliker Rose powering around Shaq.  2005 you had Bob Horry putting in an excellent productive 27 mins per game and being Big Shot Bob when it counted.  Devin Brown spelled Bob and thus the Spurs hit you with 48 minutes of athletic 3 along with a Nazr-Rasho monster for TallBall winnin formula.  As I'm sure you and the Staples crowd saw WOW, as I'm sure you saw.

Main issue vs 2007 Mavs is will PopaCement play Elson or go smallball again?
Relying on Big Shot Bob to do another productive 27 at the 3 is much too risky.
All indications are Popavich will have Bowen guard either Howard or Dirk, just like last year.  Either way it doesn't work out.
If Bowen could play some offense (yes not a misprint), this could cause Howard or Dirk to have to exert on D, which would at least put a dent in their O.
Bowens back appears to be much better, his shooting % the past 8 games is up to previous highs.  However if Poop is going to crap can Bowen on O, its something other teams have long since adjusted to, and they simply play D to allow the ball to go to Bowen.

Finley has been shooting much better and has put together some Barrylike games.
Finley and Bowens O will indeed matter.  Concur its sink or swim for the 19 million dollar man Finley this playoffs.
A dream would be for the Spurs to have Finley, Barry, and Bowen all raining 3s at the same time.   It's hardly ever happened, and its old Phx Suns style strategy.  I don't like.  Much better to insist Finley Barry take it to the rack regularly and utilize their 90 FT%.

Manu have an MVP performance like 2005 will be nice.

[Lurker]

Yes that is the real Spurs consensus, that the front office has failed to address the athletic 3 spot.  

Actually REAL Spurs fans know that Bowen has been the SF starter.  Spin away Reality but when it comes to speaking for real Spurs fans your track record leaves a lot to be desired.

As far as addressing the issue...you just list the entire litany of players they have tried to groom as a replacement for Bruce.  And obviously they are all now superstars for their respective teams...so Pop needs to take lessons from some other GM.  Maybe Ainge or Thomas could give him lessons on how to build a championship team.

[westkoast]

but lurker says the Spurs have no need of an athletic 3 to defend and play O.

They don't need a 3 to play O but to defend it would help but it is not the end all be all.  I don't think it guarentees them anything.

The other problem is there is not any SF in this league that comes to mind that can lock down Howard....

IMO the X-factor for Dallas against the Spurs is Harris.  He is the one that gives the Spurs the biggest fits.

Posted by: Reality 
but lurker says the Spurs have no need of an athletic 3 to defend and play O.

Name 1 SF that would be better than Bowen defensively.  And headcases don't count.

Bowen still is the best defender at the 3 but he is slowly becoming...well slower then the talent coming in.  Obviously that is totally understandable. The talent is always going to be young and Bowen is always going to age.