I've just seen the video.
That is obviously no exaggeration to draw a foul by Bryant. A move to draw a foul would have been in the opposite direction - from the presumed contact.
Is it a balance reaction? NO. Such a reaction would have involved Bryant's arm coming straight down - not flailing. Flailing would pull Bryant out-of-balance - unless he knew he was going to make contact. Plus, there's the problem that Bryant isn't off-balance in the first place. If he were, Ginobili couldn't have blocked the shot. Furthermore, if it were a balance reaction, that suggests that Kobe Bryant had sufficient time to plan his reaction - unless, of course, he swings his arm wildly like that after EVERY shot.
My take is that this is what I would call a "natural reaction for Bryant." That's far from what I'd describe as a "natural reaction," however. "Conditioned response" would be more appropriate.
Bryant has an affinity to hitting people in the face with elbows after big shot-blocks. He did the same thing to Dirk Nowitzki last year - his SHOOTING ARM flailing wildly to the side. It's a learned behavior - and one meant to send a message to shot-blockers; "Come after me, and you pay a price."
Did he intentionally mean to hit Ginobilli in the face? I can't honestly say...because I can't say that Bryant "aimed" the arm-swing. He meant to hit Ginobilli - I can't say for certain that it was intended to be in his face. But I do suspect it.
This is Bryant. This is what he does. And the league sent a message that it's aware of what is going on. Bryant can pretend outrage all he wants, but this was a follow-up to what happened last year, when Bryant hit Wade, Nowitzki, and Miller all within a week. (In Bryant's defense, the Wade contact *WAS* incidental.) The league sent him a message then - mostly, because it could no longer avoid it after the Miller incident (and especially given that Cuban was pressing the issue). This is the follow-up message in case he thought that the reason he got two games last time was just because of the Miller incident.
It's just bad, spoiled player behavior that the league has warned Bryant about in the past, and that's the reason this got a suspension.