Game 1 is Anthony Reyes vs Justin Verlander
Game 2 is Jeff Weaver vs Kenny Rogers
Game 3 is Chris Carpenter vs Nate Robertson
Game 4 is Jeremy Bonderman vs Jeff Suppan
Game 5 is Anthony Reyes vs Justin Verlander
Game 6 is Jeff Weaver vs Kenny Rogers
Game 7 is Chris Carpenter vs Nate Robertson
I like the match up for the Tigers in Game 1. Reyes has had more success at home than on the road, and Verlander is better in Comerica. Verlander is far and away the better pitcher. I think the Tigers will get to Reyes early, and I doubt he will last 5 innings, perhaps not even 4.
Game 2 will be a great match up. Weaver has had good success at Comerica. Even on bad Tiger teams he has pitched well in Comerica, much better than his career averages. Rogers has also pitched well in Comerica, and he has been a clutch emotional pitcher in the playoffs. This one I think is a toss up.
In game 3 Carpenter will be pitching at home, and he is close to the best pitcher in beasball at home. Robertson has pitched better on the road, so this is a good match up for the Tigers, but in the end Carpenter will prevail.
Bonderman vs Suppan in Game 4 is the pivotal game of the series. Suppan is a better pitcher than most people give him credit for, and he has his greatest success in new Busch Stadium. He has shown he can pitch under pressure, and he will be well rested, and will be close to his normal routine, while Bonderman will have gone 10-11 days between starts. Bonderman has better stuff, and has pitched better on the road this year, by a decided margin. Suppan is not the kind of pitcher who can dominate, Bonderman is. Suppan can allow a lot of baserunners, and you need timely hitting to make him pay. The Tigers have done that well this year. I favor Bonderman in this one, but it will be a good game.
We repeat game 1 in game 5, and it will more of the same. Reyes is not in Verlander's league.
Repeat of game 2 in game 6, back in Detroit. If Weaver pitches well in game 2, then I think this could be the game he struggles in. I was first on the list in saying the Cards adding Weaver was one of the best mid-seaosn moves in MLB, and he has had 6 straight good starts for the Cards, and 8 of his last 9 have been good starts. A good one in game 2 would be 7 straight, and 9 of 10. I think he will be due for a shaky start. Rogers on the other hand has never been very successful in the postseason, so to expect 4 straight good to flawless starts might also be too much to ask. I think Rogers is more mentally tough than Weaver, and I think if things go a little sideways for Weaver he might blow up.
Game 7 is a repeat of game 3. Carpenter alone gives the advantage to the Cards, but Carpenter will be pitching on the road, His home vs road differential is really very stark. He is the better pitcher though, and all that picthing on the road does is make this no worse than a pickem deal. If it is a pickem, I think you go with the guy who has won a Cy Young in the last couple of years. In other words, I really hope it doesn't go 7 games, because if it does it is bad news for the Tigers.
In looking at offensive matchup, I think the Tigers have the advantage at
C with Pudge
2B with Polanco
SS with Guillen
LF with Monroe
RF with Ordonez
DH with Thames
St Louis has the advantage at
1B with Pujols
On paper I think the Cards have the advantage in CF and 3B with Rolen and Edmonds, but neither is healthy or playing very well. For St Louis to win these 2 guys need to come up big, because right now Granderson and Inge are playing better. If both Rolen and Edmonds struggle the Tigers roll. The Cards were able to get by with subpar performance from these 2 against the Mets because they had better pitching than the Mets. That isn't the case with Detroit. Right now I would give the edge in these 2 positions to the Tigers, but it is a very slight edge than can go to the Cards easily.
Manager - I believe Leyland is the better manager. I think this because he can inspire his team, and he isn't prone to overmanaging, which I think has always been LaRussa's biggest downfall. LaRussa's ego can get in the way, but Leyland doesn't feel like he has to prove anything to anyone.
