Again this comes from
http://www.82games.com/comm25.htmI have to say that this is really an excellent site.
We've touched on the subject before of what players have been succeeding in the clutch moments of games (which we have arbitrarily defined as the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime, where neither team was ahead by more than five points), but this time we'll go beyond simple "shooting/scoring" analysis to look at various aspects of the game.
(All stats reflect games played through February 24th of the 2003-2004 season, and generally we require a player to have a minimum of 30 minutes of clutch playing time on the year.)
1) NBA Top Plus/Minus in Clutch Situations
Rank Player Team +/-
1 Prince DET +69
2 Cassell MIN +66
3 Garnett MIN +60
4 Billups DET +59
5 Miller IND +59
6 O'Neal IND +58
7 Payton LAL +57
8 Posey MEM +51
9 WallaceB DET +49
10 George LAL +49
11 Stojakovic SAC +49
12 Sprewell MIN +47
13 Hamilton DET +46
14 Hassell MIN +45
15 Christie SAC +44
16 Artest IND +43
17 Miller SAC +43
18 Gasol MEM +42
19 Smith MIL +41
20 Divac SAC +36
Not surprisingly, the list is dominated by players on some of the top teams in the league, as even though the number of games that reach a "clutch" stage varies by team, there's little doubt that the squads with good records generally win more than their fair share of the close ones.
While the Pistons may feel good about landing Rasheed Wallace, they have done well in the most telling moments all season long, and Tayshaun Prince emerges as the current leader in on court plus/minus during our specified clutch constraints.
Kevin Garnett and Sam Cassell are just a step behind, with two more Timberwolves teammates in the top twenty. And of coursee, the "never better than when under pressure" Reggie Miller still shines, coming in currently at the #5 spot.
2) Top Clutch Rebounders
Player Team Off% Def% Tm% Rtg
Ostertag UTA 22% 13% 57% 92.5
Wallace DET 12% 23% 57% 92.4
Cardinal GSW 8% 25% 59% 92.1
Camby DEN 14% 27% 50% 91.1
Mutombo NYK 15% 22% 51% 87.7
Davis CHI 13% 25% 50% 87.5
O'Neal LAL 11% 23% 52% 86.4
Kaman LAC 10% 22% 53% 85.2
Murray TOR 5% 22% 58% 85.1
Harpring UTA 9% 17% 59% 85.1
If you go simply by the player's own rebounds divided by chances (balanced for offense versus defense), then the current order is Camby, Antonio Davis, Mutombo, and Ben Wallace.
However, if you include the team rebounding % while the player is on the court (thus factoring in boxing out skills, tips to teammates, etc) the top player so far has been Greg Ostertag who is doubly dangerous on the offensive glass.
3) Passing "In The Clutch"
Player Team Ast T/O A48 Rtg
Daniels SEA 11 1 9.1 20.1
Bibby SAC 12 1 5.5 17.5
Johnson IND 11 2 9.7 15.2
Payton LAL 10 1 5.2 15.2
Nash DAL 22 5 9.9 14.3
Jaric LAC 10 2 7.7 12.7
Divac SAC 15 4 8.9 12.7
Jones MIL 11 3 8.9 12.6
Cassell MIN 20 4 7.4 12.4
Artest IND 13 2 5.9 12.4
Trying to conjure up some kind of passing rating in clutch moments is tricky in light of the small sample sizes we're dealing with, however the "Rating" to the left takes the "assists per 48 minutes" and adds it to the assist/turnover ratio.
As such, Antonio Daniels comes first, but there's no shortage of players contributing assists at a good rate while keeping turnovers low. Indeed Divac, Artest and other non-point guards deserve accolades.
4) Offensive Points per 100 Possessions
We could sort players on all kinds of clutch stats (Field Goal %, Shots attempted per 48 minutes of clutch playing time, foul drawing numbers, etc), but to get to some kind of summary we'll use a complicated formula that takes into account the player's own shots, including how often they were assisted, his passing, his free throw shooting, and his turnovers and offensive rebounds. We required 25 possessions to qualify for the "big chart."
Notes: eFG = "effective field goal percentage" adjusted for 3pt shots made, A'd = % of made field goals that were assisted, OR = offensive rebounds.
Rk Player Team Rtg FGM FGA FG% 3pt eFG A'd FTM FTA FT% Ast T/O OR
1 Boozer CLE 168.1 17 28 61% 0 61% 88% 25 29 86% 2 3 8
2 Miller SAC 152.1 13 25 52% 1 54% 46% 15 22 68% 9 2 8
3 Johnson IND 152.0 10 18 56% 6 72% 60% 10 10 100% 11 2 0
4 Posey MEM 148.9 9 24 38% 3 44% 56% 21 25 84% 2 1 7
5 Ming HOU 144.2 23 28 82% 0 82% 43% 25 35 71% 7 13 6
6 Arroyo UTA 143.2 10 21 48% 1 50% 10% 27 30 90% 7 1 0
7 Stojakovic SAC 132.9 21 44 48% 5 53% 62% 35 36 97% 0 4 2
8 Cassell MIN 131.8 26 61 43% 11 52% 38% 54 62 87% 20 4 0
9 Payton LAL 131.6 15 31 48% 5 57% 53% 20 25 80% 10 1 0
10 Hughes WAS 130.3 17 36 47% 2 50% 29% 22 23 96% 2 6 7
11 Abdur-Rahim ATL 130.2 30 56 54% 2 55% 47% 23 23 100% 4 6 7
12 James BOS 130.0 17 37 46% 12 62% 76% 13 16 81% 4 3 2
13 Howard ORL 128.5 20 39 51% 1 53% 70% 21 27 78% 1 7 10
14 Anthony DEN 127.5 18 42 43% 4 48% 72% 23 31 74% 4 2 8
15 Randolph POR 126.6 24 46 52% 0 52% 75% 24 29 83% 7 11 13
16 Kirilenko UTA 126.4 14 25 56% 5 66% 57% 14 19 74% 3 8 4
17 Artest IND 125.3 16 32 50% 2 53% 44% 23 33 70% 13 2 1
18 O'Neal LAL 124.9 15 30 50% 1 52% 60% 14 27 52% 7 5 10
19 Bibby SAC 124.2 16 43 37% 8 47% 63% 27 33 82% 12 1 3
20 Radmanovic SEA 122.8 16 37 43% 10 57% 81% 6 8 75% 6 0 2
21 Redd MIL 121.2 26 60 43% 7 49% 54% 31 37 84% 3 6 8
22 Armstrong NOH 120.5 16 30 53% 8 67% 69% 7 10 70% 11 11 6
23 Gasol MEM 118.1 26 47 55% 0 55% 42% 30 44 68% 5 11 7
24 Garnett MIN 117.3 35 74 47% 2 49% 54% 19 24 79% 12 3 10
25 Nash DAL 116.2 17 40 43% 4 48% 35% 20 23 87% 22 5 2
26 Miller IND 115.2 12 35 34% 10 49% 92% 20 24 83% 9 3 1
27 Rose TOR 112.6 13 25 52% 4 60% 46% 10 13 77% 4 5 0
28 Billups DET 112.0 34 90 38% 16 47% 38% 47 56 84% 22 10 4
29 Allen SEA 111.9 22 48 46% 7 53% 41% 10 13 77% 7 5 4
30 Miller DEN 111.7 13 38 34% 1 36% 31% 31 38 82% 12 4 4
One of the drawbacks to the points per possession ratings for individual players is how to deal with offensive rebounds. On the one hand they do represent a "saved possession" and so it can be argued should be treated as a "-1" for the player's possession count, on the other hand there's a chance that a teammate would have got the rebound if the player didn't, and the opportunity for a rebound is dependent on a shot being attempted in the first place. The drawback comes because good big men often get possibly inflated ratings as a result of their ability to grab these missed shots.
Still, while Carlos Boozer does benefit from hitting the offensive glass (and how many players are drawn out to guard LeBron?), he has hit 61% of his shots, got to the line for over one freebie per field goal attempt (and converted an outstanding 86%), all the while keeping his turnovers to a minimum. He deserves top billing for efficiency at the present time, even if he isn't the go-to guy.
Brad Miller is slightly more suspect in that he gets a bigger boost from the offensive rebounding, combined with some deft passing. Then we have the little known Anthony Johnson of the Pacers, who has shown a great knack for making plays in crucial minutes, hitting threes, calmly sinking free throws, and doling out assists with aplomb.
It's also worth noticing Yao Ming's incredible 82% field goal rate! Shaq meanwhile would jump to #8 in the league if he could hit free throws at say a 74% proficiency level, and would no doubt see more touches.
There's a lot of numbers to digest here however, and we will look to post a sortable table with even more of the players at a later date. You also may be wondering about which players are the top defensive clutch performers...well, we're working on it!
