The myth of Kobe as the premier end of game player

[ziggy]

http://www.82games.com/random12.htm

Game Winning Shot Opportunity = 24 seconds or less left in the game, team with the ball is either tied or down by 1 to 2 points.  

Why use this definition?

With 24 seconds or less, then it truly is a "last possession" situation potentially
With a margin from tied to down 2, the team can take the lead with a made basket (including 3's)
By excluding a down 3 situation, we don't have the "gimme two point buckets" that defenses will sometimes yield to the quick bucket/intentional foul strategy option you often see exercised.
Obviously though this definition means a shot may not actually be a game winner -- it may only tie a game (if down two points) or it may allow enough time for the opponents to get a game winning shot of their own. Still it seems a reasonable compromise.
Leading "Game Winning Shot" Players
Player Fgm Fga Fg% Ftm Fta Ast T/O
 League Wide 393  1323  .297 273  367  174  127  

 Carmelo Anthony 8  14  .571 4  6  0  1  
 Steve Francis 8  18  .444 3  3  2  1  
 Allen Iverson 8  18  .444 5  7  1  2  
 Joe Johnson 7  16  .438 0  0  0  1  
 Michael Redd 7  17  .412 4  5  0  1  
 Tracy McGrady 7  22  .318 8  8  0  0  
 Vince Carter 7  25  .280 4  4  3  2  
 Jalen Rose 6  10  .600 4  5  0  4  
 Ben Gordon 6  12  .500 0  0  1  0  
 Damon Stoudamire 6  12  .500 0  0  4  1  
 Paul Pierce 6  17  .353 8  9  5  3  
 Kobe Bryant 6  25  .240 8  9  0  1  
 Zach Randolph 5  8  .625 4  5  0  0  
 Pau Gasol 5  9  .556 3  4  1  1  
 Antawn Jamison 5  9  .556 0  0  0  0  
 Ray Allen 5  13  .385 2  2  0  2  
 Jason Terry 5  13  .385 1  2  0  0  
 Ricky Davis 5  15  .333 4  4  1  0  
 Dwyane Wade 5  15  .333 3  5  1  1  
 Mike Bibby 5  16  .313 1  1  3  1  
 Chris Webber 5  16  .313 0  0  1  1  
 Kevin Garnett 5  20  .250 3  3  0  0  
 P.J. Brown 4  7  .571 0  0  0  0  
 Damon Jones 4  7  .571 1  1  1  0  
 Yao Ming 4  7  .571 4  5  0  0  
 Derek Fisher 4  8  .500 0  0  1  0  
 Richard Hamilton 4  8  .500 2  2  1  2  
 Tim Duncan 4  9  .444 3  4  0  1  
 Tony Parker 4  9  .444 0  0  3  0  
 Richard Jefferson 4  10  .400 1  1  0  1  
 Shawn Marion 4  10  .400 0  0  0  0  
 Baron Davis 4  11  .364 2  2  2  1  
 Dirk Nowitzki 4  15  .267 6  9  0  2  
 Rasheed Wallace 4  16  .250 2  2  0  0  
 Chauncey Billups 4  18  .222 10  11  1  1  

...other Notable Players
Player Fgm Fga Fg% Ftm Fta Ast T/O
 Ron Artest 3  8  .375 1  1  1  1  
 Gilbert Arenas 3  13  .231 7  7  0  2  
 Predrag Stojakovic 2  3  .667 0  0  1  0  
 Chris Bosh 2  7  .286 2  2  0  0  
 Rashard Lewis 2  11  .182 2  4  0  1  
 Jermaine O'Neal 2  12  .167 4  4  1  0  
 LeBron James 2  16  .125 4  8  2  2  
 Jason Richardson 2  17  .118 1  6  3  2  
 Emanuel Ginobili 1  7  .143 0  1  0  2  
 Corey Maggette 1  11  .091 2  2  0  2  
 Stephon Marbury 1  12  .083 6  6  3  1  
 Steve Nash 1  12  .083 2  3  6  2  

 


The numbers are based on the combined regular season games for 03-04, 04-05 and 05-06 (through Feb. 26th).
The first thing to note is that these types of shots are very difficult on a league wide basis: a .297 Field Goal percentage doesn't exactly inspire confidence!

Part of this is that game winning chances may come with just a couple of seconds or less remaining in the game from the inbounds. So manufacturing any shot at all in some cases is to the player's credit.

Carmelo Anthony has not only delivered the most "game winning/tying buckets" in the final moments, he's also done it at a rate of almost twice the NBA average!

Kobe Bryant meanwhile has indeed had six such made shots over the past two and a half seasons, but at a pretty low conversion rate, even factoring in his free throws. The other thing with Kobe is that he's not looking to pass the ball! Zero assists in these "final possession" states with 25 shots taken says something.

Sample sizes of course are not going to hold up to statistical significance tests...

If we peruse some of the big names that didn't make the leaderboard for raw game winning FGM, LeBron James certainly stands out for not having made his mark yet in this department. Give him time though and that may well change!

Steve Nash does lead the NBA during this timeframe in most assists leading to game winning/tying baskets. His own shot however has not been falling (the playoffs might be a different story).
 


Other facts of interest?

Leaders in Free Throw attempts:
Billups 11, Pierce 9, Nowitzki 9, Bryant 9

Most game winning/tying shots that were blocked:
Carter 4, Magloire 4, Nowitzki 3, Abdur-Rahim 3, Anthony 3, Lewis 3, Allen 3

Most game winning/tying baskets that were assisted:
Redd 5, Anthony 4, Fisher 4, Jalen Rose 4

Most unassisted game winning/tying baskets:
Joe Johnson 7, Iverson 6, Francis 6, McGrady 6, Pierce 6
 

[Reality]

:hail: zig you are a credit to the board.

[Laker Fan]

Once again, Ziggy, statistics made to dance on the head of a  pin. Carmelo has been in this situation just 14 times, 11 less than Kobe Bryant and Vince Carter, in fact only those and Tracy McGrady are above 20 in this situation, I daresay his percentage would probably drop as the attemptes go up, and he hardly draws anywhere near the double or triple teams a Kobe, Iverson, Duncan or other experienced players get in such a situation, at least he doesn't yet, and the numbers will fall back to earth when he does start drawing that kind of defensive pressure on a more regular basis. Additionally, Kobe is virtually automatic from the stripe in this situation, as is McGrady and Carter. I wonder what Robert Horry's numbers are? Probably not much different but it doesn't change the fact that he is a big game shooter, at least by reputation.

IMO Steve Francis, Alan Iverson, and Joe Johnson are more impressive than Anthony's because they have made a reasonbly significant more attempts, and Iverson no doubt faces more serious defensive double and triple teams and STILL shoots a pretty high percentage, those intangibles mean more to me than raw numbers. And Kobe has done it in pivotal games, big games, playoff games, often enough to command respect and achieve the status of a clutch player. I have no doubt Anthony has that kind of potential if he can keep the weight off and make a decent career.

Bottom line, especially on the current roster in Los Angeles, Kobe's big game clutch status has been proven enough that in this situation, I'll take my chances with the ball in his hands.

[westkoast]

I would say Steve Kerr, John Paxton, and Robert Horry shoot to the top of the list because of how much their shots changed the outcome of playoff games and the championship.  That is not something you can measure by statistics.   Also Kerr is getting somewhat robbed because he was clutch for the Spurs in the playoffs a few years back but all his big shots came outside of the 24 second range that is being used.  They were still clutch none-the-less because he was asked to come into the game because no one else could hit shots.

Also I think that it should be a little higher than last 24 seconds.  Anything under a minute is clutch IMO.  Plus a playoff clutch shot should outweight a regular season clutch shot (I am just saying, I know you didnt come up with this or if there would even be a way to do that)

Neat stat breakdown tho, props for that very intresting to read and see how it was broken down.

As for Kobe having 0 assists, that doesnt neccesarily mean he isnt pasing the ball.  He could be passing the ball but the player is not hitting the shot.  That has happend more tha 6-7 times this season but for the most part, you are correct, he normally is the one who takes the last shot.

[Reality]

Neat stat breakdown tho, props for that very intresting to read and see how it was broken down.

As for Kobe having 0 assists, that doesnt neccesarily mean he isnt pasing the ball.  He could be passing the ball but the player is not hitting the shot.

Got a good point there.

[westkoast]

Neat stat breakdown tho, props for that very intresting to read and see how it was broken down.

As for Kobe having 0 assists, that doesnt neccesarily mean he isnt pasing the ball.  He could be passing the ball but the player is not hitting the shot.

Got a good point there.

I think youll also agree that Steve Kerr is getting robbed here because a bunch of his clutch shots came outside of the 24 second mark when he was with the Spurs.  He came in and hit those shots after not playing any minutes in the entire series (and I dont think he played in the game at all up to that point), that is about as clutch as you can get.  If you come in cold as hell

Shots deeper in the playoffs (conference finals, championship games) should also hold more weight.

I understand tho it would be impossible to pick and choose each shot EVER and deem them clutch or not.

[WayOutWest]

Only ONE player in all of NBA history has made more clutch shots than misses for their entire career.  Everyone else had a a low FG% but I'd still put the ball in the hands of Bird, Miller, Kareem and Jordan over a Carmello and friends any day of the week.

In today's game if I had MONEY on the line there are only two choices, Kobe and Iverson.  T-Mac is just a notch below.  The reason being is the first part of game winning shot is just getting the shot off, only those three guys can get the shot they want whenever they want to, regardless of the defense or defender.  It doesn't help to shot a high percentage if you can't get the shot off.

Of course all time it's Magic.  I need to find the info about game winning makes and misses to confirm he's the only one who shot better than 50%.  That info was made by a commentator durring the playoffs but I haven't found the data to back it up.  Still, from watching Magic for 7+ years, I wouldn't want the ball in anyone else's hands with the exception of MJ.  Both MJ's don't need any assistance to get their shot off.  Bird and Miller usually needed a screen or passer to help.  IMO Kareem was the most unstopable game winning player in history once he had the ball in his possession.

[ziggy]

Once again, Ziggy, statistics made to dance on the head of a  pin.

And anecdotal opinions would be Micheal Flatley on the end of human hair.

[WayOutWest]

Neat stat breakdown tho, props for that very intresting to read and see how it was broken down.

As for Kobe having 0 assists, that doesnt neccesarily mean he isnt pasing the ball.  He could be passing the ball but the player is not hitting the shot.

Got a good point there.

I think youll also agree that Steve Kerr is getting robbed here because a bunch of his clutch shots came outside of the 24 second mark when he was with the Spurs.  He came in and hit those shots after not playing any minutes in the entire series (and I dont think he played in the game at all up to that point), that is about as clutch as you can get.  

Shots deeper in the playoffs (conference finals, championship games) should also hold more weight.

I understand tho it would be impossible to pick and choose each shot EVER and deem them clutch or not.

I'd like to see career numbers as well, I bet things would change quite a bit.  I'd also like to see Horry's career numbers as well.  He made monster shots for the Rockets, Lakers and Spurs and I'd like to see how they added up.

[ziggy]

In today's game if I had MONEY on the line there are only two choices, Kobe and Iverson.  T-Mac is just a notch below.  The reason being is the first part of game winning shot is just getting the shot off, only those three guys can get the shot they want whenever they want to, regardless of the defense or defender.  It doesn't help to shot a high percentage if you can't get the shot off.
 

It used to be that Kobe was the best because he could make them, now he is the best because he can get them off. :rofl:   Mr. Flatley is dancing like never before right now.

[WayOutWest]

In today's game if I had MONEY on the line there are only two choices, Kobe and Iverson.  T-Mac is just a notch below.  The reason being is the first part of game winning shot is just getting the shot off, only those three guys can get the shot they want whenever they want to, regardless of the defense or defender.  It doesn't help to shot a high percentage if you can't get the shot off.
 

It used to be that Kobe was the best because he could make them, now he is the best because he can get them off. :rofl:   Mr. Flatley is dancing like never before right now.

Ziggy,

How many games would Kobe, IVERSON, T-MAC or anyone win if they couldn't get their shot off?  Where is Shaq, Childress or Curry on the list?  Wonder why they're not on the list...   Or are we just playing a game of "jackass" posting instead of discussion?  My guess is we're playing "jackass" cause the thread title wasn't about Carmelo or Nash, who were the top and bottom.

P.S.  I love indulging in "jackass" posting but my limited net access doesn't allow me to indulge as often as I would like.  :nod:  

[Lurker]

I think WOW & koast make very valid points here and that is the definition of clutch.  When a team sees a double digit lead disappear and the PA announcer is chiming in with "TWO MINUTES REMAINING" that key basket that keeps the opponent at bay is very clutch.

Just in last night's game Finley hit a couple "clutch" shots that didn't happen in the lasat 24 seconds.  But if he would have clanged them off the rim maybe the outcome would have been different.  Several of Kerr's clutch shots were of the same type.  Same for Horry.

The scenario ... opponent closes within a couple points ... momentum is starting to swing ... you're on the edge of your seat ... then BOOM ... a dagger knifes through the net ... and usually the opponents' hopes.  Beer spills as you jump out of your seat.  Peanuts & pretzels go flying.  High fives with all the buddies watching the game.  Anyone who hasn't been there, done that shouldn't call themselves a fan.

And that is the clutch shot that won the game....not the one made in the last 24 seconds.

[westkoast]

I think WOW & koast make very valid points here and that is the definition of clutch.  When a team sees a double digit lead disappear and the PA announcer is chiming in with "TWO MINUTES REMAINING" that key basket that keeps the opponent at bay is very clutch.

Just in last night's game Finley hit a couple "clutch" shots that didn't happen in the lasat 24 seconds.  But if he would have clanged them off the rim maybe the outcome would have been different.  Several of Kerr's clutch shots were of the same type.  Same for Horry.

The scenario ... opponent closes within a couple points ... momentum is starting to swing ... you're on the edge of your seat ... then BOOM ... a dagger knifes through the net ... and usually the opponents' hopes.  Beer spills as you jump out of your seat.  Peanuts & pretzels go flying.  High fives with all the buddies watching the game.  Anyone who hasn't been there, done that shouldn't call themselves a fan.

And that is the clutch shot that won the game....not the one made in the last 24 seconds.

Momentum breaking shots could  fall under the clutch category also.  Or a shot that doesn't neccesarily win a game can be clutch also.  If the Spurs are up by 1 point, there is 24 seconds left on the clock, and Bowen hits a 3 that seals the deal that is a clutch shot.  I don't think those kinds of shots are  calculated by this either.

Finley's made shots last night is a perfect (and fresh) example.  If he didn't get those points in the 4th quarter the Spurs might not have won the game.

How come John Paxton is not on the list?  He hit a number of big shots for the Bulls.

[ziggy]

In today's game if I had MONEY on the line there are only two choices, Kobe and Iverson.  T-Mac is just a notch below.  The reason being is the first part of game winning shot is just getting the shot off, only those three guys can get the shot they want whenever they want to, regardless of the defense or defender.  It doesn't help to shot a high percentage if you can't get the shot off.
 

It used to be that Kobe was the best because he could make them, now he is the best because he can get them off. :rofl:   Mr. Flatley is dancing like never before right now.

Ziggy,

How many games would Kobe, IVERSON, T-MAC or anyone win if they couldn't get their shot off?  Where is Shaq, Childress or Curry on the list?  Wonder why they're not on the list...   Or are we just playing a game of "jackass" posting instead of discussion?  My guess is we're playing "jackass" cause the thread title wasn't about Carmelo or Nash, who were the top and bottom.

P.S.  I love indulging in "jackass" posting but my limited net access doesn't allow me to indulge as often as I would like.  :nod:

Not trying to play jackass, just throwing a topic out for discussion, and challenging all the opinions that are being held up as facts.

Sure this doesn't tell the whole story, never claimed that it did.  Of course all the anecdotal evidence isn't fact either.  You say no way you would want a pretender like Carmello taking the end of the game shot over Kobe, but why the hell not.  He has been successful more often (8 to 6), in fewer opportunities (14 to 25), and got to the FT line at a higher rate (43% vs 36%).

How about Paul Pierce.  He has made just as many in 8 fewer attempts, shot the same # of FT in fewer end of game shots, and also given out 5 assists to just 1 for Kobe.

Kobe isn't the premier end of game player, ni matter how much ancedotal evidence you try to make stick to the wall.

Here is the entire crunch time data regarding Kobe.  There are some good numbers here, and some really poor numbers here.

http://www.82games.com/0506/05LAL7E.HTM

Here are Carmello's

http://www.82games.com/0506/05DEN11E.HTM
 

[westkoast]

"Kobe isn't the premier end of game player, ni matter how much ancedotal evidence you try to make stick to the wall."

He is one of the best players in the 4th quarter and there is plenty evidence to prove that.  I would consider end of game to be the 4th quarter.  Like I said clutch shots dont always come in that 24 seconds or less timeframe.

Now if you are saying he is not the best clutch player in the last 24 seconds of the game than your stats speak for you.

Of the top 5 guys you mentioned with those stats none of them have hit a big shot(s) in the playoffs or finals that won the game except AI.  In the top 10 only 3 players have (Vince Carter, Tracy Mcgrady, and Allen Iverson) done that.  Although I cannot remember if Damon Stoudamire has or not, correct me on that one cuz you woul dknow better than I would.