The curse of Shareef Abdur Rahim

[ziggy]

He has never played on a playoff team.  

In his years in Vancouver they went
2000-01 23 - 59 .280
1999-00 22 - 60 .268
1998-99  8 - 42 .160
1997-98 19 - 63 .232
1996-97 14 - 68 .171
and yet 2 years after he leaves they make the playoffs.

In his years in Atlanta they went
2003-04 28 - 54 .341
2002-03 35 - 47 .427
2001-02 33 - 49 .402
Got traded midway through the 03-04 season to Portland

In his years in Portland (after 22 straight seasons in the playoffs) they went
2004-05 27 - 55 .329 (3rd worst record in team history)
2003-04 16 - 16 .500  (only team he has ever been on that did not have a losing record, and interestingly enough he was not a starter on this team, and had a career low in minutes played, yet this team had the best winning % of any team he has ever been on).

Now he is in Sacramento.  They are 10-17, with the second worst record in the west.  They are 7-9 at home, and over the last 4 years at home they have lost 5, 5, 6, and 11 home games for the entire season.  They just lost at home to the worst team in the West, Portland, and they allowed Portland to score 100 points for the first time all season.

So is the curse for real, and how much of the losing should be laid at his feet?  Lots of players can make those around them better, is Shareef that rare player who makes those around him worse?

[Skandery]

You do have to wonder.  Those winning percentage numbers really don't look good from Shareef.  When you think that his second year in Atlanta was his best year, that's scary, because that was a god-awful team.  

In Vancouver, he was the second draft pick of the lesser of the two expansion teams.  I mean when Greg Anthony is your PG and "Big Country" Reeves is your C, I don't think its possible for Shareef to make those players any worst.  One has to wonder whether the move to Memphis would've been good for him and the team.  The problem is he'd be taking the spot of two of the players that have elevated the franchise (Gasol or Battier).  I'd move Gasol to 5 and have Shareef play 4, but anyways...

In Atlanta, once again, he went to a situation with a losing mentality.  No longer were the solid foundations of Dikembe, Mookie, and Grant Long there.  The talented Jason Terry really wasn't a leader and while Shareef is a good locker room presence, he really isn't a leader.  So you had a losing team, an incompetent coach, and a clueless front office, with NO leadership...bad combination.  

Portland is where I don't think he was used enough when he was traded for mid-year.  And I do believe that last year, when Portland began to get decimated with injuries Shareef was one of the guys keeping the team somewhat afloat.  Portland just seems to have kind of a dark cloud surrounding it and I hate to say it Ziggy, Nate hasn't really changed that.  We'll see in time though...  

Sacramento is the truly surprising one.  Much to my chagrin, they were my pre-season favorite to win the Pacific, so much for that.  Who knew that the Amare-less Suns, the Shaq-less Lakers, the clueless Warriors, and the Clippers would all be eons ahead of them.....the Clippers!?!?  I thought Shareef would fit in well to the motion offense, run the floor hard; he's never been a defensive stopper by any means, but that never hurt Sacramento before.  From his individual numbers and what I've seen of Kings games, he DOES fit in well and is one of the few players NOT underachieving this year.  Yet the team keeps on tacking bad loss after bad loss.  It definitely hasn't helped with Wells, Stojakovic being hurt, Bibby regressing, and Brad Miller really not elevating his game.  And when the injury bug hits Sacramento (like it has), its gonna hurt a lot worst than other teams.  I thought they would be deep with the likes of Williamson, Kenny Thomas, and Skinner on the bench but they have been horrible to date and whats worst is Adelman doesn't even trust his bench.  

Basically this has been a long post making excuses for Shareef Abdur-Rahim.  He maybe a gifted scorer, a decent rebounder, a big body, an all around nice guy but honestly he needs to improve some gaping holes.  Specifically in the areas of defensive awareness, intensity, fortitude, and most of all leadership.  He's in that horrible place of being talented enough to garner the minutes and being one of the top two guys on a team who CAN'T rally his teammates around him.   And that's a killer in those close game situations.  I don't think its impossible that Shareef maybe wakes up to that and in the right situation (with a little luck), he might just see the playoffs one of these years.    

[westkoast]

Well when you put it like that Ziggy I am going to have to go with a definite 'YES' LOL

Although in his defense, the memphis turn around situation had alot to do with moves made by Jerry West and the coaching of Hubie Brown.  Its not like the main reason they turned it around was because he left the team.

The Kings situation isn't entirely his fault but he was brought in as the main goto guy.  

[Skandery]

The Kings situation isn't entirely his fault but he was brought in as the main goto guy.

I thought he was brought in to compliment the estabished tandem of Bibby and Stojakovic?

[westkoast]

The Kings situation isn't entirely his fault but he was brought in as the main goto guy.

I thought he was brought in to compliment the estabished tandem of Bibby and Stojakovic?

He was brought in to replace their main post player C-Webb.  I was assuming the thinking was if they had someone who could score on the box that Bibby and Peja would get more space to shoot.
 

[Skandery]

I was assuming the thinking was if they had someone who could score on the box that Bibby and Peja would get more space to shoot.

I know and Shareef HAS been scoring on the box and Bibby and Peja STILL can't shoot.  :bash:  

[Joe Vancil]

I'm more of the opinion that Abdur-Rahim was meant to COMPLIMENT Bibby and Stojakovic rather than to ESTABLISH them.

This year's Kings aren't Abdur-Rahim's fault.  They're the fault of a lot of messing with the Sacramento Kings roster.  Christie and Mobley - two outside shooters - are gone, in favor of Bonzi Wells - essentially a post-guard.  Bobby Jackson, a key element to a strong bench, is strengthening the bench in Memphis.  Abdur-Rahim was brought in to bolster interior scoring, since Webber is now gone.

Instead, Abdur-Rahim has to deal with Bonzi Wells occupying the post, with Stojakovic out for a good part of the year, one less outside shooter on the court at any given time (and more, if someone has to come in for Miller), a weakened bench, and a Stojakovic having an AWFUL year...at least when he's playing.

And it's Abdur-Rahim's fault the Kings are losing?  I don't buy it.  You put losing chemistry on a court, with a star player playing sub-par basketball and missing tons of games due to injury, and the team is going to lose - bottom line.

 

[ziggy]

Portland is where I don't think he was used enough when he was traded for mid-year.  And I do believe that last year, when Portland began to get decimated with injuries Shareef was one of the guys keeping the team somewhat afloat.  Portland just seems to have kind of a dark cloud surrounding it and I hate to say it Ziggy, Nate hasn't really changed that.  We'll see in time though...

I actually made one mistake.  In his first year in portland the Blazers were 17-15 with Shareef on the team, and 24-26 without him.  

During that partial season in the games where Shareef played at least 24 minutes the Blazers were 5-7, and when he played less than 24 minutes they were 12-8.  They had a better record when Shareef played less.

Last season they were 27-55.  In the games where Shareef played they were 17-37 (.315), and in the games where he did not play they were 10-18 (.357).  They had a better record when Shareef didn't play.

During last season in the games where he did play at least 30 minutes they were 12-28 (.300), and in the games where he played less than 30 minutes they were 5-9 (.357).  They had a better record when Shareef played fewer minutes.

[westkoast]

I'm more of the opinion that Abdur-Rahim was meant to COMPLIMENT Bibby and Stojakovic rather than to ESTABLISH them.

This year's Kings aren't Abdur-Rahim's fault.  They're the fault of a lot of messing with the Sacramento Kings roster.  Christie and Mobley - two outside shooters - are gone, in favor of Bonzi Wells - essentially a post-guard.  Bobby Jackson, a key element to a strong bench, is strengthening the bench in Memphis.  Abdur-Rahim was brought in to bolster interior scoring, since Webber is now gone.

Instead, Abdur-Rahim has to deal with Bonzi Wells occupying the post, with Stojakovic out for a good part of the year, one less outside shooter on the court at any given time (and more, if someone has to come in for Miller), a weakened bench, and a Stojakovic having an AWFUL year...at least when he's playing.

And it's Abdur-Rahim's fault the Kings are losing?  I don't buy it.  You put losing chemistry on a court, with a star player playing sub-par basketball and missing tons of games due to injury, and the team is going to lose - bottom line.

Why would you trade to compliment jump shooters who cannot create their own shot??  IMO they traded to get them spacing and take the scoring load off them.  Webber and Divac established Peja/Bibby by settings screens, keeping the defense honest, and passing.  With those two leaving they didnt have a big man to help them get going.

Brad Miller would never be that guy because he cannot score on the box as well as C-Webb did or as well as Rahim is able to (well at least suppose to be able to)

[Skandery]

I actually made one mistake. In his first year in portland the Blazers were 17-15 with Shareef on the team, and 24-26 without him.

During that partial season in the games where Shareef played at least 24 minutes the Blazers were 5-7, and when he played less than 24 minutes they were 12-8. They had a better record when Shareef played less.

Last season they were 27-55. In the games where Shareef played they were 17-37 (.315), and in the games where he did not play they were 10-18 (.357). They had a better record when Shareef didn't play.

During last season in the games where he did play at least 30 minutes they were 12-28 (.300), and in the games where he played less than 30 minutes they were 5-9 (.357). They had a better record when Shareef played fewer minutes.

Well first of all while .357 is higher than .315, losing is losing, both are horrible records.  Barring that weak-ass argument though...  

You just beautifully catalogued exactly the problem with Portland and Shareef Abdur-Rahim.  He played, he didn't play, he got minutes, he got benched, he was starting, he was a reserve.  He really never had a role and never really knew what was expected from the team.  They made the mistake of handing the kingdom to Darius Miles and THEN realizing that three is a crowd (Reef, Miles, Randolph).  So they tried to shop Shareef while at the same time still giving time to their high dollar acquisition, and it never worked!  I personally would've let Darius go and use that money on Shareef Abdur-Rahim.  He goes back to playing the three position, which is where I think he played his best ball.  Zach at the four and Pryz at the five, now there's a frontline.  Pryz can take it upon himself to erase the many mistakes of Zach and Shareef.  You have to let your players know where they stand, something Larry Brown is starting to realize in NY.            

[ziggy]

Well first of all while .357 is higher than .315, losing is losing, both are horrible records.  Barring that weak-ass argument though... 

You just beautifully catalogued exactly the problem with Portland and Shareef Abdur-Rahim.  He played, he didn't play, he got minutes, he got benched, he was starting, he was a reserve.  He really never had a role and never really knew what was expected from the team.  They made the mistake of handing the kingdom to Darius Miles and THEN realizing that three is a crowd (Reef, Miles, Randolph).  So they tried to shop Shareef while at the same time still giving time to their high dollar acquisition, and it never worked!  I personally would've let Darius go and use that money on Shareef Abdur-Rahim.  He goes back to playing the three position, which is where I think he played his best ball.  Zach at the four and Pryz at the five, now there's a frontline.  Pryz can take it upon himself to erase the many mistakes of Zach and Shareef.  You have to let your players know where they stand, something Larry Brown is starting to realize in NY.

Lets compare the Blazers record for both Darius and Shareef.  They both arrived in Portland about the same time (within a couple of weeks), and played a similar position most of the time.

2003-04
Darius  -  24-18  (.571)
Shareef  -  17-15  (.531)
The Blazers were .040  better when Darius played than when Shareef.  On an 82 game basis that would be 3.3 more wins.

Playing 24 minutes or more
Darius  -  16-10   (.615)
Shareef  -  5-7   (.417)
The Blazers were .198 better when Darius played significant minutes than when Shareef played significant minutes.  On an 82 game basis that would be 16.25 more wins.

Playing less than 24 minutes
Darius  -  8-8   (.500)
Shareef  -  12-8   (.600)
The Blazers were .100 better when Shareef DIDN'T play significant minutes than when Darius DIDN'T play significant minutes.  On an 82 game basis that would be 8.2 more wins.


So the difference in winning % when playing more than 24 minutes and less than 24 minutes
Darius is +0.115 when playing more than 24 minutes, than when playing less than 24 minutes.
Shareef is -0.183 when playing more than 24 minutes, than when playing less than 24 minutes.

2004-05
Darius  -  25-38  (.397)
Shareef  -  17-37  (.315)
The Blazers were .082 better when Darius played than when Shareef.  On an 82 game basis that would be 6.7 more wins.

Playing 24 minutes or more
Darius  -  15-23   (.395)
Shareef  -  12-28  (.300)
The Blazers were .095 better when Darius played significant minutes than when Shareef played significant minutes.  On an 82 game basis that would be 7.8 more wins.

Playing less than 24 minutes
Darius  -  10-15   (.400)
Shareef  -  5-9   (.357)
The Blazers were .043 better when Darius DIDN'T play significant minutes than when Shareef DIDN'T play significant minutes.  On an 82 game basis that would be 3.5 more wins.

So the difference in winning % when playing more than 24 minutes and less than 24 minutes
Darius is -0.005 when playing more than 24 minutes, than when playing less than 24 minutes.
Shareef is -0.057 when playing more than 24 minutes, than when playing less than 24 minutes.


The only positive for Shareef in comparing him to Darius, was last year, when he didn't play much, the Blazers record was worse than when Darius didn't play much.  I guess you could say that shows the value of Shareef,  :crazy:  :bash: .

In reality the Blazers were .500 (17-17) when he didn't play much, and .327 (17-35) when he did play alot, over the 86 games when he was a Blazer.  The difference in losses when he played a lot, over 82 games, was 14 additional losses.  In other words if we didn't play him much we are a boderline playoff team, and when he played a lot we had the 5th worst record in the league. :eek2:

So was Miles really the problem??? :up:  

[ziggy]

OK now I am just piling on, but what the heck.

On Monday Sacramento, with Shareef playing, lose at home to the worst team in West by 13.  This was their 5th straight loss.

On Tuesday Sacremento, with Shareef out with a broken jaw, plays the team with the 3rd best record in the West, on the road, and they win by 17.


Reef is out for 6 to 8 weeks with this broken jaw.  So what do you if Sacramento turns it around while Shareef is out? Do you make him the starter when he returns, or do you keep things the same and make him a limited minute reserve?

[Wolverine]

Reef is out for 6 to 8 weeks with this broken jaw.  So what do you if Sacramento turns it around while Shareef is out? Do you make him the starter when he returns, or do you keep things the same and make him a limited minute reserve?

I say we punch Peja Stojakovic in the jaw and put him on the shelf for awhile.  That way I'd KNOW FOR SURE that he's out, and he won't sit on my bench when he actually plays, and is in my SL when he sits.

[Skandery]

2005-2006 Season

Sacramento: the team with Shareef (.393 - winning percentage)

Portland: the team with Darius (.333 - winning percentage)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Portland record with Darius (5-10), .333 win perct

Portland record without Darius (4-8), .333 win perct

Total number of point differential in 5 wins with Darius:  25 points, avg - 5 points

Total number of point differential in 4 wins without Darius:  29 points, avg - 7 points
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hmmm, so Shareef's team is doing better than Darius' and it looks like Darius doesn't do a damn bit of good when he's on the court as the teams win percentage doesn't change, in fact when they do win they do more convincingly WITHOUT Darius.  Ziggy, you can massage numbers all you want.

True Sacramento won today, a double-double from Bibby (38 points, 10 assists), a double double from Miller (23 points, 10 rebounds), and 20 pt, 8 reb, 5 ast, 2 stl, 0 TO statline from Kevin Martin goes a long way to getting that victory.  Too bad for Shareef, these kind of games from his teammates have been the exception, NOT the norm.  You seem to think the absence of Shareef facilitated these performances, I don't believe that.  

At least not yet........... :up:  

[ziggy]

2005-2006 Season

Sacramento: the team with Shareef (.393 - winning percentage)

Portland: the team with Darius (.333 - winning percentage)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Portland record with Darius (5-10), .333 win perct

Portland record without Darius (4-8), .333 win perct

Total number of point differential in 5 wins with Darius:  25 points, avg - 5 points

Total number of point differential in 4 wins without Darius:  29 points, avg - 7 points
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hmmm, so Shareef's team is doing better than Darius' and it looks like Darius doesn't do a damn bit of good when he's on the court as the teams win percentage doesn't change, in fact when they do win they do more convincingly WITHOUT Darius.  Ziggy, you can massage numbers all you want.

True Sacramento won today, a double-double from Bibby (38 points, 10 assists), a double double from Miller (23 points, 10 rebounds), and 20 pt, 8 reb, 5 ast, 2 stl, 0 TO statline from Kevin Martin goes a long way to getting that victory.  Too bad for Shareef, these kind of games from his teammates have been the exception, NOT the norm.  You seem to think the absence of Shareef facilitated these performances, I don't believe that.  

At least not yet........... :up:

Skander, Skander, Skander now you are really stretching it, just to argue.  You have gone to comparing apricots and egg plant.   :nonono: OK I give up, I will use your logic, and admit that Maurice Evans, Carlos Arroyo, and Carlos Delfino are now 3 of the top 15 players in the league.  Now that is massaging numbers my friend!!!  :rolleyes:

Contrary to your assertion,  :bash: I am not blaming all the ill in world on Shareef, I am simply asking the question, and using some numbers to make the point.  I am just unwilling to blame all of Shareef's losses on everybody and everything else (Jason Terry, poor management, Big Country, Greg Anthony, Darius Miles, Peja, Bibby, Bonzi, injuries to other players, not enough consistent playing time, Winnie the Pooh and little Black Rain Clouds, blah, blah, blah).