Scoring Last 5 games:
Okur: 12, 5, 29, 13, 16
Johnson: 24, 17, 12, 18, 21
Okur is averaging 1 point higher per game than Johnson but its been bolstered by two 30 point explosions, I think those performances and the trend shown above make Johnson a more consistent scoring threat. Okur's still apt to getting benched by Sloan for defensive effort as evidenced by his recent 21 minute game. And he's shooting threes at a ridiculous 50% (1.4/2.
, how long is that going to last?? Especially when you take into account the Jazz are without Boozer and Kirilenko. You have to wonder what Okur's rebounds and points go down to after they come back (if ever??), especially since he doesn't really give you much in the way of assists, steals, or blocks.
Johnson is averaging an eye-popping 42.4 mpg last 5 games and 39.8 mpg for the season. He's going to see playing time rain or shine. He is averaging 18.7 ppg but I expect that to go up since I doubt he'll end the year at 27% from 3 point land and 67% at the line. He'll creep back up to his career averages of 37% (perhaps 35% since he's the focus of the team) 3P% and 75% from the line and end the season over 20 ppg. The 4-something rebounds and assists will be very nice at the 2-spot, also.
To me Johnson is a legitamate fantasy keeper whereas Okur is fantasy starter because of Center-status and could be reduced to great fantasy bench player if his numbers take a dive with the eventual return of Boozer's 17 and 9. With Yahoo's recent addition of Center status to Jermaine O'Neal I don't think Randy was under the gun to pull this deal off. And I think Ted has made a strong roster even stonger.
Skander has pretty much explained the reasons I decided to do the trade. I was hard to give up Memo; he's a hometowner and he's been putting up some huge numbers now and then.
The big thing for me is that I don't see anyone on Atlanta poised to take away minutes or numbers from Joe Johnson. I expect his production to improve a little even. But when Booz (3 weeks if he has any heart) and AK47 (I'm hearing a couple of weeks) come back, I think it becomes impossible for Memo to maintain his numbers. He'll still rebound between 8 and 10 a game, but his scoring will go down quite a bit. I watched the Jazz/Sonics last night, and Deron was feeding Memo on nearly every possession, and Memo had his way with Collison. I don't expect that to be the same when Andrei and Booz back.
But still, I hope the deal works out for both of us. And Randy is right. I did have to chew on this one for a few days. But it seems like the right thing to do for me.
