MLB playoff thread

[Wolverine]

It's based off Voros McCracken's theory that a pitcher can only control the home runs, walks, and strikeouts that he gives up. Balls put into play he has no control over. They can prevent the HRs, BBs, and balls put into play by striking out batters.

I don't necessarily agree with that.  What about a pitcher who consistently jams a batter?  That's not luck.

McCracken's theory and DIPS aren't worried about process.  They're focused on results.  It's not luck if the pitcher spots the ball right where he wants to and gets the batter to swing and miss or pop out.  However, what if the "floater" lands in the outfield for a hit?  That's UNLUCKY, but the pitcher still made a great pitch and the result will be reflected against him negatively.  Conversely, if the pitcher makes a terrible pitch and leaves a hanging curveball right out over the plate and it's hammered RIGHT AT the first baseman for a lineout, that's lucky.

Today's performance by Jake Peavy was a great example.  Peavy didn't pitch NEARLY as bad as the stats might indicate.  In a two-run third inning, David Eckstein started the rally by blooping a pitch to center field.  The next hitter, Jim Edmonds, dropped in a shallow double down the left field line despite being jammed.  After an intentional walk to Pujols, Peavy FELL DOWN during his delivery and the pitch bounced ten feet in front of the plate before rolling away.  One run scored.  They intentionally walked Walker at that point (with first base open because of the wild pitch), and Reggie Sanders hit a sharp ground ball down the first base line that hit the bag and scored another run.

So let's see ... two bloop hits and a wild pitch that was caused when the pitcher fell down.  Did Peavy really pitch poorly?  Absolutely not.  But the stats will show that he did.

DIPS was constructed because McCracken was trying to come up with a way of rating a pitcher based soley on what he could control: home runs, walks, and strikeouts.  Bill James, for the most part, agrees with McCracken except for one additional variable: extra base hits (I agree with James on this one, for the record).  

[Wolverine]

Today's victory PISSES ME OFF.  After watching the end of that game, I was so disgusted with our bullpen that I ended up in a bad mood.

There's no reason to blow an 8-0 lead and allow the Padres to climb back in the game after your starter shuts them out for six innings.  For the Padres to have the go-ahead run at the plate in the top of the ninth is inexcusable.  You've given them all of the momentum entering Game 2.  No doubt they are thinking that all they have to do is get to our bullpen and they have a chance.  You've now left them with something positive after being down 8-0 after six.  I hope Mulder goes the distance on Thursday, because I have ZERO confidence in the 'pen.

And as posted earlier, Jake Peavy pitched well today.  Just as well as Carp, in fact.  Both guys brought their "plus" stuff.  Peavy just wasn't as lucky.

But still, good luck to the Padres on Thursday.  Astacio's career ERA against the Cards is 5.12.  His WHIP?  1.37.

[ziggy]

It's based off Voros McCracken's theory that a pitcher can only control the home runs, walks, and strikeouts that he gives up. Balls put into play he has no control over. They can prevent the HRs, BBs, and balls put into play by striking out batters.

I don't necessarily agree with that.  What about a pitcher who consistently jams a batter?  That's not luck.

McCracken's theory and DIPS aren't worried about process.  They're focused on results.  It's not luck if the pitcher spots the ball right where he wants to and gets the batter to swing and miss or pop out.  However, what if the "floater" lands in the outfield for a hit?  That's UNLUCKY, but the pitcher still made a great pitch and the result will be reflected against him negatively.  Conversely, if the pitcher makes a terrible pitch and leaves a hanging curveball right out over the plate and it's hammered RIGHT AT the first baseman for a lineout, that's lucky.

Today's performance by Jake Peavy was a great example.  Peavy didn't pitch NEARLY as bad as the stats might indicate.  In a two-run third inning, David Eckstein started the rally by blooping a pitch to center field.  The next hitter, Jim Edmonds, dropped in a shallow double down the left field line despite being jammed.  After an intentional walk to Pujols, Peavy FELL DOWN during his delivery and the pitch bounced ten feet in front of the plate before rolling away.  One run scored.  They intentionally walked Walker at that point (with first base open because of the wild pitch), and Reggie Sanders hit a sharp ground ball down the first base line that hit the bag and scored another run.

So let's see ... two bloop hits and a wild pitch that was caused when the pitcher fell down.  Did Peavy really pitch poorly?  Absolutely not.  But the stats will show that he did.

DIPS was constructed because McCracken was trying to come up with a way of rating a pitcher based soley on what he could control: home runs, walks, and strikeouts.  Bill James, for the most part, agrees with McCracken except for one additional variable: extra base hits (I agree with James on this one, for the record).

If you look at the correlation between K/BB, WHIP, and batters faced per home run allowed, you would see a much clearer picture of pitcher quality than wins or winning percentage, and also to a lessor degree ERA.
I would agree with Bill James though that extra base hits should be considered, just as slugging % is a far better measure of hitting prowess than BA.

[Wolverine]

If you look at the correlation between K/BB, WHIP, and batters faced per home run allowed, you would see a much clearer picture of pitcher quality than wins or winning percentage, and also to a lessor degree ERA.
I would agree with Bill James though that extra base hits should be considered, just as slugging % is a far better measure of hitting prowess than BA.

Actually, OBP (historically) is the one offensive stat most associated with winning %.  Although slugging would be second.

[Reality]

Today's performance by Jake Peavy was a great example.  Peavy didn't pitch NEARLY as bad as the stats might indicate.  In a two-run third inning, David Eckstein started the rally by blooping a pitch to center field.  The next hitter, Jim Edmonds, dropped in a shallow double down the left field line despite being jammed.  After an intentional walk to Pujols, Peavy FELL DOWN during his delivery and the pitch bounced ten feet in front of the plate before rolling away.  One run scored.  They intentionally walked Walker at that point (with first base open because of the wild pitch), and Reggie Sanders hit a sharp ground ball down the first base line that hit the bag and scored another run.

So let's see ... two bloop hits and a wild pitch that was caused when the pitcher fell down.  Did Peavy really pitch poorly?  Absolutely not.  But the stats will show that he did.

DIPS was constructed because McCracken was trying to come up with a way of rating a pitcher based soley on what he could control: home runs, walks, and strikeouts.  Bill James, for the most part, agrees with McCracken except for one additional variable: extra base hits (I agree with James on this one, for the record).

:hail: Superb analysis.
I also think it was an inch here, an inch there that seperated Carpenter and Peavy today.  (Leaving out the Sanders bomb).

The Reggie Sanders sharp ground ball did not hit the bag but rather hit Sweenys glove.  It was a defensive swing by Sanders.  Not knocking him at all.  He was fooled on the Peavy pitch, didn't think it would be as far outside and low as it was and he put the bat on the ball.  It's a Sweeny error in my book, altho I agree with talking head Joe Morgan.  "A gold glove 1st baseman makes that play, Sweeny is average D, in for his bat."

From espn:
Peavy thinks he might have bruised his ribs during a celebratory scrum on the field after the Padres clinched the NL West on Wednesday. :rolleyes:  He said the injury was probably worsened when he caught a spike on the rubber on a wild pitch in the third that didn't even make it to the dirt.

After Peavy was taken to hospital today:  An MRI showed one broken rib on his right side and the possibility of a second break.

Strategy props to LaRussa for having 3rd baseman not cheat to the bag when Dave Roberts was running from 2nd base on the 3-2 counts to Loretta.  Sure enough Loretta hits one fairly hard, but right at 3b for the force and on to 1st for the double play.  He cheats to 3rd base and the grounder probably gets thru.

No props to Bochys strategy. :nonono:  Top 2nd inning the ump gifts Sweeny 1st base when he and Pujols both slide into the bag.  Next batter Ekstein loses the ball in the sun  Two huge breaks, resulting in 1st and 2nd nobody out.  You advance the runners in that situation, dipstick.  At St Louis, Carpenter on the hill you have to try to pop the zero score bubble and break the auroa and temp silence the crowd.  Babe Ruth Khalil Green swinging away was bogus.  

[ziggy]

From espn:
Peavy thinks he might have bruised his ribs during a celebratory scrum on the field after the Padres clinched the NL West on Wednesday. :rolleyes:  He said the injury was probably worsened when he caught a spike on the rubber on a wild pitch in the third that didn't even make it to the dirt.

After Peavy was taken to hospital today:  An MRI showed one broken rib on his right side and the possibility of a second break.

 

I saw somewhere that the best pitcher born in the decade of the 60's is Roger Clemens.  If he continues to progress the best pitcher born in the 70's will be Johan Santana, and the best born in the 80's will be Jake Peavy.

Sorry Reality, but if Peavy is out for the playoffs, then stick a fork your Pads, they are done.  They might make a game 4, but not beyond that.

[Reality]

Sorry Reality, but if Peavy is out for the playoffs, then stick a fork your Pads, they are done.  They might make a game 4, but not beyond that.

I'm actually wanting to impress a big bucks Asian businessman who digs baseball.  He has the keys to the kingdom of some IPO stock that is auto double-triple-quadruple.  No game 4 means no go as he will not be in from Asiaville until Sunday.  Gm 3 is Sat.

Cards best team ever IMO was the umpire Denkingers blown call of '85 (87?).  Current team is stacked but LaRussa simply cannot win the big one.  As Joe Morgan said the Pads are not intimidated one bit.  So lets see what happens.  I predict Cards in 4 but keep the fork out it for now.

Angels.  '03 World Series win they lost the opening game in all three playoff series.
So I'm not sweating at all.  Nonetheless, what does your and Wolfs stat analysis say about Bartolo Colon?  Weird start.  Gets two quick outs in both 1st and 2nd innings, only to allow a boatload of singles and 4 runs combined.  What was that?
I think he lacks smart pitching strategy and tends to rare back and hurl too often.  

[Wolverine]

From espn:
Peavy thinks he might have bruised his ribs during a celebratory scrum on the field after the Padres clinched the NL West on Wednesday. :rolleyes:  He said the injury was probably worsened when he caught a spike on the rubber on a wild pitch in the third that didn't even make it to the dirt.

After Peavy was taken to hospital today:  An MRI showed one broken rib on his right side and the possibility of a second break.

This is a shame.  I am actually a big Peavy fan (he's on my fantasy team), and you want to see both teams at their best when they face off in the playoffs.  Terrible blow to the Pads.

[Wolverine]

Cards best team ever IMO was the umpire Denkingers blown call of '85 (87?).  Current team is stacked but LaRussa simply cannot win the big one.  As Joe Morgan said the Pads are not intimidated one bit.  So lets see what happens.  I predict Cards in 4 but keep the fork out it for now.

The best Cards team was probably the '44 team, but that's debatable (and also neither here nor there).

The Denkinger call occurred in Game 6 of the '85 Series.  The Cards went on to get their butts handed to them in Game 7.

I can see where you're coming from when you say that La Russa can't win the big one, but remember that his 1989 A's team swept the Giants in four, so he has won a championship.  However, his big teams have typically gotten knocked around in the Series ('88 and '90 A's, '04 Cards).

[Joe Vancil]

Well, I for one believe that PITCHING is the most important thing when you're talking about the baseball playoffs.  STARTING pitching.  If you've got one pitcher on a roll, that pitcher can carry a team, and in my opinion, that's what happened against the '88 A's.  Orel Hershiser was pitching as well as I've ever seen any pitcher pitch.  There was no way that the A's, a better team on paper, were going to win that Series, with Hershiser pitching the way he was at the time.  The A's were underdogs in that series.  And LaRussa's Oakland team really humbled the Giants in '89.  So I don't at all buy the idea that LaRussa can't win the big one.  This guy is a GOOD manager.   He may not be the White Rat, but he's good, as opposed to the LAST Cardinal manager, Joe Torre, who continues to be overrated beyond belief.  How Torre lasted as long as he did in St. Louis *STILL* amazes me.

As for the '85 series, the '85 Cardinal loss in game 7 was predictable.  There is a reason that John Tudor did poorly in the American League.  Back then, AL Umpires had a much higher strike zone than did NL League umpires.  A junkballer by trade, Tudor got knocked around in Boston.  When he came to the Cardinals, he did exceptionally well.  It was because it was in the National League, where he had the lower strike zone, playing in Busch Stadium, where he had the fast infield, for the Cardinals, who had Golden Glovers on the left side of the infield to take care of the right-handed batters who'd be facing the left-handed Tudor.  Game 7 was in Kansas City, with an AL umpire behind the plate.  OF COURSE Tudor got shelled.  Then bring on Joaquin Andujar, a wild fastballer with a love relationship with umpires roughly equal to that of Ron Artest's with the fans of Detroit and who had struggled down the stretch.  That lasted just long enough for Andujar to publicly embarrass the Cardinals organization with his break-down on national TV, necessitating his trade that off-season.  (See, Trailblazers?  It *CAN* be done!)

Going into the series, the conventional wisdom was that you use your best pitcher as often as you can - Tudor going in 1-4-7 on three day's rest.  And that's an AWFUL mistake when you consider he's a junkballer who would be pitching games 1 and 7 with an AL ump behind the plate.  I argued this point over and over and over with my college friends, and amazingly enough, every one of the Cards *AND* Royals fans were so busy in Tudor-worship that they refused to remember the Tudor that got knocked around in the AL.  It was only a matter of time.

Sparky Anderson used to argue the wisdom of matching his pitchers to AL/NL umpires - high fastballers with AL umps and junkballers/sinkerballers with NL umps.  To this day, I still don't know why anyone doesn't point to Tudor in game 7 as the counter-example.
 

[Reality]

Well, I for one believe that PITCHING is the most important thing when you're talking about the baseball playoffs. 

 There was no way that the A's, a better team on paper, were going to win that Series, with Hershiser pitching the way he was at the time.  The A's were underdogs in that series.  And LaRussa's Oakland team really humbled the Giants in '89.  So I don't at all buy the idea that LaRussa can't win the big one. 

As for the '85 series, the '85 Cardinal loss in game 7 was predictable. 
 

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...ball/one/051003  Some very interesting stuff on "pitching wins championships, must have experience, etc"

88 As series turned on two plays:  A two out flyball to Jose Canseco.  He Jonesed going after it, misplayed the ball and instead of a fairly easy out the Dogers scored off it late in a close game.  Also have you checked the As starting pitching for the 88 Series?  Dave Stewart 21-12, Storm Davis 16-7, Bob Welch 17-9

2.  Everyone in the media plays to death the Kirk Gibson homer.  The batter before him Mike Davis was hitting about a buck 98.  Two outs already.  Eck had two stikes zero balls on him.  For reasons i have never heard explained, Eck starts nibbling around the plate.  Walks him.  Thus Gibsons homer makes it 5-4 instead of 4-4.

3.  Tommy Fatsorda completely outcoached LaRussa in the emotional dept.  LaSorta had the Dogers completely geeked, playing on his rah rah emotion.  LaRussa tried to be his chessman all head no heart stuff.  A's should have won that series.

'85 Series point is should have never have gone to Game 7.  It's like the WCFinals that the Kings won in 6 games in 2002.  The most frying thing about Denkinger is not that he initially missed the call by a mile, it's that Whitey Herzog went out to the field and did not just blabber at him (like most MLB coach-ump squabbles), but rather asked him to appeal to the 2nd base ump, who had a better view and indeed said in future articles he knew the runner was out at 1st and would have ruled so.  Perfectly withing the rules for a coach to ask an ump to defer to another ump.  Denkinger stubbornly, egotistically refused.  Beyond bogus.  

Herzog had purposely used up his starting pitching, he was playing to win in 6 games.  In effect he did.  The above out makes it 2 out nobody on.  I highly doubt KC rallies with only one out to go.

[westkoast]

Well, I for one believe that PITCHING is the most important thing when you're talking about the baseball playoffs.  STARTING pitching.

You are dead on just ask the Angels.  Last night was a perfect example of how important the starting pitcher is.  He really sets the tone for the game.   Last night Bartolo did not throw well and the Yankees got out to a decent lead quickly.  Playing from behind is never fun, especially not in baseball.

I am convinced that the City of Los Angeles personally did something to Reality : D

[Reality]

You are dead on just ask the Angels.  Last night was a perfect example of how important the starting pitcher is.  He really sets the tone for the game.   Last night Bartolo did not throw well and the Yankees got out to a decent lead quickly.  Playing from behind is never fun, especially not in baseball.

I am convinced that the City of Los Angeles personally did something to Reality : D [/quote]
  :rofl:  Just ask the Angels in their Championship year.  How many times did they come from behind?    
Read the espn article.  Important? Yes.  All encompassing?  Not a chance.  You need hitting also.  It's like your "defense alone wins NBA championships."  Aint true.

The city of L.A. has provided me with so many repeat customers it's...the #1 market for sure.

[Reality]

Wang from Taiwan gave the Yankees 6 solid innings, only 2 earned runs and a 2-2 tie.  I thought Joe Torre dropped the ball in keeping him out for the 7th.

FRod is no longer scary at all as the Angels closer.

[Wolverine]

FRod is no longer scary at all as the Angels closer.

He's had some arm problems (noteably this past offseason), and his slider hasn't been nearly as consistent as in past years.  On more than one occasion, it's been really flat, and screaming "Hit me!  Hit me!"