Author Topic: Determination of Keeper possibilities  (Read 8988 times)

Offline Derek Bodner

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Determination of Keeper possibilities
« Reply #15 on: August 17, 2005, 12:09:34 PM »
Quote
So in short you don't have to have one of the top 5 players to win, and you don't have to have one of the top 5 players to be competitive. So you don't have to trade a top 5 player for a top 5 player.

That was my argument from the getgo, and why I thought this limitation on keepers was a serious overreaction, but you won't convince anyone here.

Offline Skandery

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Determination of Keeper possibilities
« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2005, 12:15:14 PM »
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That was my argument from the getgo, and why I thought this limitation on keepers was a serious overreaction, but you won't convince anyone here.

I understand this argument perfectly, Bods.

But do you see how it can be construed by some as a little convenient that the people who want no limitation on keepers are the people who currently have Dirk, KG, and LeBron.
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Anyways would someone care to comment on my proposal or if they have a better idea.    
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Offline ziggy

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Determination of Keeper possibilities
« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2005, 12:19:10 PM »
Quote
Quote
So in short you don't have to have one of the top 5 players to win, and you don't have to have one of the top 5 players to be competitive. So you don't have to trade a top 5 player for a top 5 player.

That was my argument from the getgo, and why I thought this limitation on keepers was a serious overreaction, but you won't convince anyone here.
Derek,
I would rather teams keep their keepers forever than have the top 10 just thrown back into the draft at some point.  We don't like the fact that some team got Garnett or Duncan through the randomness of the draft order, so in an effort to solve that problem we do it again 2 years later.
I just believe that it is more fun, to throw a  wrinkle or 2 into the process which forces teams to figure out how to trade their best players, and still end up with a team they like.
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Offline Derek Bodner

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Determination of Keeper possibilities
« Reply #18 on: August 17, 2005, 12:51:32 PM »
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Quote
That was my argument from the getgo, and why I thought this limitation on keepers was a serious overreaction, but you won't convince anyone here.

I understand this argument perfectly, Bods.

But do you see how it can be construed by some as a little convenient that the people who want no limitation on keepers are the people who currently have Dirk, KG, and LeBron.
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Anyways would someone care to comment on my proposal or if they have a better idea.
If you'll notice, I've come up with 3 different proposals.

Offline Skandery

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Determination of Keeper possibilities
« Reply #19 on: August 17, 2005, 01:02:44 PM »
I was hoping my additional proposal, which is a compromise of your three, could be added to, commented on, or improved upon to become a fourth option.  

If no one is interested in that, than I'll make do with one of the three that are out there.      
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Offline Derek Bodner

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Determination of Keeper possibilities
« Reply #20 on: August 17, 2005, 01:10:49 PM »
I think something like that would have to be done.  But the problem with your proposal (and my proposal, of using who you traded determining the eligibility of who you receive) will be that it's a mess to keep up with.

Offline Skandery

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« Reply #21 on: August 17, 2005, 01:34:04 PM »
If everyone likes our idea, I'll be the league secretary.... :D  
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Offline Lurker

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Determination of Keeper possibilities
« Reply #22 on: August 17, 2005, 02:08:46 PM »
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Of the top 50 Teams in all of the Yahoo public leagues last year, which player was on more of those teams than any other?  It wasn't Dirk, it wasn't Garnett, and it wasn't Duncan.  It was Shawn Marion, and he was on 26 of the top 50 Yahoo teams.  Who were the top 10 players most often on the rosters of the the top 50 Yahoo Public Leagues

#1 Shawn Marion 52%
#2 Brad Miller 46%
#3 Rashard Lewis 42%
#4 Steve Nash 38%
#5 Kevin Garnett 34%
#5 Jeff McGinnis 34%
#7 Nazr Mohammad 28%
#8 PJ Brown 26%
#9 Kurt Thomas 24%
#9 Raef LaFrentz 24%

The only one of your top 5 was Kevin Garnett.  In fact none of your top 5 were in the top 20, except Garnett.
These 10 players were on a top 50 team, 35% of the time.  That means that, on average, between 4 and 5 of these players were on every one of the top 50 teams.

So in short you don't have to have one of the top 5 players to win, and you don't have to have one of the top 5 players to be competitive.  So you don't have to trade a top 5 player for a top 5 player.
Actually this argument can be used to support the idea of putting the keepers back after two years.  If they aren't that important to winning the league the why is there such strong argument to retain your keepers for more than 2 years.  If the key is to build a balanced team then the better GMs will still rise to the top because the key players become those who are available in rounds 3-5 not those who are kept.

Besides since the main idea of this league (at least I think so) is to have friendly competion among people who have become friends over the BBS then why so much angst over holding onto championship level talent?  If the attitude is that much cutthroat as to having the winners stay on top and exclude the lower teams from reaching it then I have to reconsider whether this league fits my idea of entertainment.  And if anyone believes this is more than just simple entertainment then I feel sorry for you.

To me it is not so much a question of winning....and last season if not for missing a week and a half of setting my lineup in the last 3 weeks I feel I would have made the top 6.  I was moving up steadily and just barely lost out on the 6th spot.  To me this league is about fun and allowing everyone the chance to follow the top players and seeing if as a manager I can assemble a collection of players that work together.

The issue on add/drops in my mind was that some managers were using this technique to regularly get more player games in than their opponent.  And this inevitably led to higher totals in several categories.  Expanding rosters would be a way to offset this as then most teams would have someone playing each day as to keep the number of player-games in a week somewhat equal.  Also as someone else pointed out it would eliminate that teir of players that rotated in & out  of various rosters.  I have no problem with expanded rosters as a solution.

BTW I honestly don't see that many of the players on the above list being maintained as keepers....especially after the top 5.
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Offline Joe Vancil

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Determination of Keeper possibilities
« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2005, 02:08:55 PM »
And I have an answer to that, Skander.

What you propose is do-able, but it gets complicated after a while, and that's what I'm looking to prevent.  Plus, why trade a keeper for a non-keeper?  I'm hurting my own team, because the top player's eligibility is getting reset.

I understand Ziggy's point, because it's the situation that I'm in:  Duncan and Nash.  My way forces me to choose between Duncan/Nash and COMPLETELY rebuilding, or Duncan/Lewis and having at least SOMETHING to build from next year.

What keeps a person from tanking?  Losing.  If you're willing to lose year after year after year, without ever getting better, or at least trying to, there's nothing anyone can *EVER* do about that.  If they do it in a season where the "magical" keepers are out there, it will benefit them for no more than two years...at which point, they're going to have to be "bad" again.

My question is if we're going to allow some circumstances to reset keeper eligibility OTHER than the draft, why aren't we resetting that eligibility in *ALL* circumstances?

Skander's proposal doesn't cover the two-trade scenario that I proposed earlier:  If I trade Duncan for bum A and bum B from DaBods, it resets Duncan's eligibility.  So then DaBods turns around and trades me Garnett for bum C and bum D.  That resets Garnett's eligibility.  I've got Garnett for two years, and Derek has Duncan for two years.  Neither re-enter the draft.  Neither was traded for each other.

The *ONLY* fair way to do it is that ELIGIBILITY STAYS WITH THE PLAYER.  That way, there's no question as to what you are trading for.  If you trade for Duncan this year, you *KNOW* he's going back in the draft pool.  It's up to you as to whether you play for a short-term championship (Miami), or rebuild for the future (L.A. Lakers).

And, also, for example, let's say that I *REALLY*, *REALLY* like Steve Nash - or LTTK really, really likes Peja Stojakovic.  You're telling me that in order to get him back, I have to let him go through the draft...which is okay by me...but if I trade him, I can't re-acquire him, even if his eligibility is reset.  That's crazy.  Perhaps I'm willing to mortgage my future to keep players I like.  If I'm limited to WHAT PLAYERS I CAN ACQUIRE, and the situations through which they are acquired, then I'm against that.

Consider this situation:  I trade Nash this year.  He has no eligibility left for me.  He plays on Ziggy's team for two years, and Ziggy trades him to Caleb.  Caleb then trades Nash to me.  Yet he's not eligibile for me to keep.  Why?  Because of something that happened THREE YEARS ago.  That simply means that as time goes on, the rules get more and more and more complicated.  That's bad.

The way to do it is with STRAIGHT ELIGIBILITY that stays with the player.  The same way it can be beneficial to trade for a player with an expiring contract, it would be beneficial to trade for a player with no eligibility.  For example, let's use the past year:

Derek has Jason Kidd, Tracy McGrady, and Kevin Garnett.  He knows he's got two years of eligibility with McGrady, one year left with either Kidd or Garnett.  But he's got a stacked team.  Why not trade a Kidd and others for someone like a Dwyane Wade?  In that way, he now has Garnett eligibile for one year, McGrady and Wade eligible for two.  He gets to choose - dump Garnett for the long run, or drop a Wade or McGrady?  

The trick to this is that you're limited to 2 keepers, but a lot of teams, if you were to really push them, would want to keep three players.  Derek has Kidd/McGrady/Garnett.  I have Duncan/Nash/Lewis.  Last year, Skander had Arenas/Miller/Kirilenko/McGrady.  The depth is out there.

Anything that limits the managers from moving a player in hopes of re-acquiring that player - via draft or via trade - I'm against.  Anything that requires us to remember anything more than happened in the past two off-seasons, I'm against.  The rules should be simple.

Anything that resets eligibility OTHER THAN THE DRAFT - I'm against.  If we're doing that, we simply might has well just let people keep players for as long as we want them, because the thrill of having that #1 draft pick is MEANINGLESS.  All the talent is gone.

If I have the number 1 draft pick, it ought to mean something.  And as keepers start getting staggered - meaning Duncan is eligible one year and Garnett is eligible the next - then it will.  The big problem is that we're at the initial start, and Duncan, Nowitzki, and Garnett are all in the same year.  But how long before the off-year starts catching up in terms of keepers?  You can figure Wade, Arenas, Maggette, and Iverson will figure highly in the draft two years from now.

A player's eligibility should - in part - determine his value.  Duncan should be worth less in the upcoming year than he would have been last year.  He should have been worth less last year than he was the year before.  And his value shouldn't be less to me just because I had him before.
Joe

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Guest_Randy

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Determination of Keeper possibilities
« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2005, 02:18:30 PM »
Still think I like Joe's model best.  

And still like the idea of upping the rosters from 12/2 to 15/1.

Can we just vote on this and move on?  There seems to be two sides -- and it's interesting that people feel that the other side can't see their point of view.

Offline Skandery

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Determination of Keeper possibilities
« Reply #25 on: August 17, 2005, 02:50:06 PM »
Joe,

Quote
Consider this situation: I trade Nash this year. He has no eligibility left for me. He plays on Ziggy's team for two years, and Ziggy trades him to Caleb. Caleb then trades Nash to me. Yet he's not eligibile for me to keep. Why? Because of something that happened THREE YEARS ago. That simply means that as time goes on, the rules get more and more and more complicated. That's bad.

Under the proposal I've set out, you could re-acquire Nash and his eligibility would be reset if you traded a non-keeper for him.  Players eligibility will be directly tied to the team that has owned and kept them.  So in the scenario you describe above, if Caleb trades you Nash, you've got Nash for two off-seasons.  That is unless you gave him a keeper whose time has run out in which case, Nash's time would run out, too.  But if you got Nash for a non-keeper, then Nash's eligibility is reset.  

Now if Caleb decides to trade Nash back to Ziggy, that's where my exception kicks in and Nash must re-enter the draft because he played on and was kept for two offseason's by Ziggy, NOT YOU.  

Quote
Skander's proposal doesn't cover the two-trade scenario that I proposed earlier: If I trade Duncan for bum A and bum B from DaBods, it resets Duncan's eligibility. So then DaBods turns around and trades me Garnett for bum C and bum D. That resets Garnett's eligibility. I've got Garnett for two years, and Derek has Duncan for two years. Neither re-enter the draft. Neither was traded for each other.

Just like you can't stop someone from throwing the season when all the magical players come off the rosters (with your proposal), you can't stop two people in cahoots from keeping two megastuds between the two of them (with my proposal).  I didn't say it was perfect.  But it is the best compromise I can think of to make it harder for either of the two scenario's from happening, while at the same time not punishing a manager for doing good or doing bad.    

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Offline Joe Vancil

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Determination of Keeper possibilities
« Reply #26 on: August 17, 2005, 03:04:07 PM »
Ziggy,

As for the list of players up there, it's easy for me to believe that those players were common among top teams.

But how many of them were first round picks?

If I picked Jeff McInnis in the first round, does that REALLY help me win?  No.  What happened is that someone picked Jeff McInnis at a time when he was up against COMPARABLE players, and McInnis had a good year.

What made my team formidable last year was getting Drew Gooden in round 9 and Rafer Alston in round 10.  At that position, those are great picks.  But they're AWFUL picks in rounds 3 and 4.

Part of the reason I don't buy into the "these players were on winning teams" argument is because it doesn't account for WHEN they were drafted.  Yes, having P.J. Brown was advantageous for someone last year.  But it doesn't make him keeper quality.

Guaranteed, in any league of 10 players, Duncan was a first-rounder.  Ditto for Garnett.  Ditto for Nowitzki.  The spreading out of these players simply makes it less likely that ALL of them will be on a top performing team list.  But I can guaratee you that if a person had a choice between Tim Duncan and P.J. Brown with the rest of his team, the team with Tim Duncan on it wins more...even though Duncan isn't on the list and P.J. Brown *IS*.

 
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Offline ziggy

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Determination of Keeper possibilities
« Reply #27 on: August 17, 2005, 03:26:56 PM »
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Ziggy,

As for the list of players up there, it's easy for me to believe that those players were common among top teams.

But how many of them were first round picks?
 
That Joe is exactly my point.  You don't win because you have Garnett or Duncan or Dirk on your team, you win because you have a good second round pick, a good 3rd round pick, a good 4th, a good 5th, a good 6th, a good 7th etc.

Of course you wouldn't draft PJ if you could draft Duncan, but no one is ever going to get Duncan and Garnett in the same draft

The reason you had such a good team is not because you added and dropped, you had a good team, because you had 6 of the top 20 on this list on your team.  You got a lot of good talented players.


As far as the rules, well I am a Republican, and I guess that means I perfer to live in a dictatorship, so whatever Derek decides on his ok with me.  If that is Joes, then great, if it is Skanders that is great as well.
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Offline WayOutWest

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Determination of Keeper possibilities
« Reply #28 on: August 17, 2005, 03:29:16 PM »
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Actually this argument can be used to support the idea of putting the keepers back after two years.  If they aren't that important to winning the league the why is there such strong argument to retain your keepers for more than 2 years.  If the key is to build a balanced team then the better GMs will still rise to the top because the key players become those who are available in rounds 3-5 not those who are kept.
 
That was the first thing that popped into my mind when I read that proposal, I guess it was so obvious even a Texan picked up on it.

My vote:

Keeper eligibility can ONLY be reset by re-entering the draft.  One time exception to the players mentioned before.  I actually understood this to be the rule from day one but I guess there was some confusion.

No limit on player movement, expanding the rosters size would be and excellent counter measure for excessive player pickups and drops.  Limiting player movement IMO interfears (sic?) with one's ability to play in the league.  Expanding the rosters does not but at the same time limits its effectiveness.
 
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Offline Skandery

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Determination of Keeper possibilities
« Reply #29 on: August 17, 2005, 03:53:27 PM »
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Keeper eligibility can ONLY be reset by re-entering the draft. One time exception to the players mentioned before. I actually understood this to be the rule from day one but I guess there was some confusion.

Ditto WayOutWest, I guess we need to do a better job of understanding from here on out.  

Quote
No limit on player movement, expanding the rosters size would be and excellent counter measure for excessive player pickups and drops. Limiting player movement IMO interfears (sic?) with one's ability to play in the league. Expanding the rosters does not but at the same time limits its effectiveness.

Agree 100%, and very well-said.  

I think Randy, Ziggy, Joe, WOW, Lurker and I have now all said something to this effect, so the question is simply semantics.  I prefer 16 no IL, as I've stated, but can live with 15/1 IL or 14/2 IL or whatever.  
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