From Basketballreference.com
The Hall of Fame Monitor is a formula with six components. It is meant to be used as a guide and not as a hard and fast rule. There are some players who do very well according to the formula and are not in the hall of fame, but for the most part this formula is a good scale.
The Formula:
75 points for each NBA MVP award
15 points for each All NBA First Team selection
1 point for each point of NBA career Approximate Value and .33 points for each point of ABA career Approximate Value
2.5 points for each point of NBA career Efficiency
3.5 points for each NBA Championship
-20 points for centers and -15 points for forwards
Formula Explanations
NBA MVP
Being an NBA MVP has been the best way to get into the hall. Every NBA MVP who is eligible for the Hall of Fame is in the Hall of Fame. When a player wins an MVP award, its almost as good as getting enshrined.
All NBA First Team
Being elected NBA First Team carries some weight with the hall. 80% of players who were All NBA First Team two or more times and are eligible for the hall of fame, are in the hall of fame. The percentage jumps to 96% for players with three or more NBA First Team selections. Being selected to an All NBA First team should be slightly easier for a forward or guard than a center because two forwards and guards are selected as opposed to one center.
Approximate Value (AV)
Approximate Value is a statistical calculation that provides an idea of how much a player contributed to his team over the course of a season. The career AV will provide an idea of how much a player contributed to his teams over the course of his entire career. This component gives players credit for long, solid careers. ABA AV is not given as much credit as NBA AV. The AV is also slightly biased towards centers and forwards.
Efficiency (EFF)
Efficiency is a measure of a players impact per game. Since it is a per game average, it helps players who had short, but spectacular careers. It is also the only component that can decrease over time. So a player who has a career EFF of 20.1 after five seasons, may fall off and only have a career EFF of 17.3 after 10 seasons. This means that the HOF Monitor score can actually fall for some players over time. EFF is slightly biased towards centers and forwards.
NBA Championship
Winning an NBA Championship is a good thing in the eyes of the Hall of Fame voters. It also gives that player some publicity and possibly enhances the perception that he is a great player. Players who play on multiple championship teams have a slightly increased chance of making the Hall of Fame.
C and F Penalty
The slight bias towards centers and forwards that AV and EFF have needs to be acounted for with a penalty. Centers are penalized 20 points and forwards are penalized 15 points. Each player in our system has been assigned one single position. This is not ideal, but in most cases works out fine. Players who play multiple positions were given the position that they played most over the course of their career.
This formula provides a handy guide for rating a player's HOF chances. It is not meant to be a way to compare players of different eras. 85% of all players with a HOF Monitor score of 135 or more and are eligible are in the Hall of Fame. 99% of players with a score of 160 or greater and are eligible are in the Hall of Fame. One thing you will notice is that good players tend to jump out to a quick pace. This is because of the player's career EFF score. Keep in mind that the career EFF score will probably not move very much for a player and in most cases will actually drop off as the player becomes older and his skills diminish.
All Time HOF Monitor Scores
1. Kareem Abdul-jabbar 833*
2. Michael Jordan 731
3. Wilt Chamberlain 639*
4. Bill Russell 628*
5. Magic Johnson 549*
6. Larry Bird 529*
7. Karl Malone 501
8. Bob Pettit 460*
9. Moses Malone 449*
10. Oscar Robertson 409*
11. Tim Duncan 379
12. Bob Cousy 364*
13. Hakeem Olajuwon 338
14. Shaquille O'neal 322
15. Jerry West 317*
16. Charles Barkley 315
17. Elgin Baylor 308*
18. Julius Erving 295*
19. David Robinson 289
20. Kevin Garnett 245
21. John Havlicek 223*
22. Wes Unseld 223*
23. Bob Mcadoo 221*
24. Dolph Schayes 220*
25. George Gervin 213*
26. Rick Barry 212*
27. Dave Cowens 208*
28. Allen Iverson 206
29. Elvin Hayes 206*
30. Willis Reed 204*
31. Walt Frazier 200*
32. John Stockton 194
33. Jerry Lucas 194*
34. Jason Kidd 191
35. Scottie Pippen 189
36. George Mikan 187*
37. Isiah Thomas 182*
38. Bill Walton 181*
39. Nate Archibald 167*
40. Gary Payton 167
41. Billy Cunningham 165*
42. Clyde Drexler 164*
43. Bill Sharman 162*
44. Kobe Bryant 158
45. Neil Johnston 156*
46. Patrick Ewing 156
47. Robert Parish 152*
48. Paul Arizin 152*
49. Dave Bing 150*
50. Walt Bellamy 147*
51. Paul Westphal 143
52. Pete Maravich 143*
53. Dominique Wilkins 142
54. Kevin Mchale 141*
55. Artis Gilmore 140
56. Spencer Haywood 138
57. Bob Lanier 136*
58. Bernard King 135
59. Sam Jones 135*
60. Gail Goodrich 134*
61. Dennis Johnson 134
62. Tim Hardaway 130
63. Chris Webber 130
64. Hal Greer 130*
65. Adrian Dantley 130
66. Lenny Wilkens 129*
67. Alex English 129*
68. David Thompson 128*
69. Reggie Miller 128
70. Nate Thurmond 128*
71. Bailey Howell 127*
72. Ed Macauley 127*
73. Anfernee Hardaway 126
74. Earl Monroe 125*
75. Jack Sikma 125
76. Bob Davies 123
77. Larry Nance 122
78. Kevin Johnson 121
79. Horace Grant 121
80. Otis Thorpe 121
81. Buck Williams 121
82. Dan Issel 121*
83. Chris Mullin 120
84. Gus Williams 120
85. Mitch Richmond 118
86. Maurice Cheeks 118
87. Dennis Rodman 118
88. Marques Johnson 118
89. Mark Jackson 117
90. Ron Harper 117
91. Reggie Theus 117
92. Tracy Mcgrady 116
93. Sidney Moncrief 116
94. Bill Laimbeer 116
95. Jeff Hornacek 115
96. Dave Debusschere 115*
97. Latrell Sprewell 11598. Alonzo Mourning 115
99. George Mcginnis 114
100. Paul Silas 114
*Hall of Fame Member
BOLD - Not yet eligible player
HOF Monitor Scores of current or not yet eligible players
1. Michael Jordan 731
2. Karl Malone 501
3. Tim Duncan 379
4. Hakeem Olajuwon 338
5. Shaquille O'neal 322
6. Charles Barkley 315
7. David Robinson 289
8. Kevin Garnett 245
9. Allen Iverson 206
10. John Stockton 194
11. Jason Kidd 191
12. Scottie Pippen 189
13. Gary Payton 167
14. Kobe Bryant 158
15. Patrick Ewing 156
16. Tim Hardaway 130
17. Chris Webber 130
18. Reggie Miller 128
19. Anfernee Hardaway 126
20. Kevin Johnson 121
21. Horace Grant 121
22. Otis Thorpe 121
23. Chris Mullin 120
24. Mitch Richmond 118
25. Dennis Rodman 118
26. Mark Jackson 117
27. Ron Harper 117
28. Tracy Mcgrady 116
29. Jeff Hornacek 115
30. Latrell Sprewell 115
31. Alonzo Mourning 115
32. Rod Strickland 114
33. Terry Porter 113
34. Grant Hill 111
35. Dikembe Mutombo 110
36. Kevin Willis 109
37. Terry Cummings 107
38. Charles Oakley 107
39. Sam Cassell 107
40. Vlade Divac 105
41. Mookie Blaylock 105
42. Shawn Kemp 104
43. Detlef Schrempf 103
44. A.c. Green 102
45. Hersey Hawkins 101
46. Stephon Marbury 99
47. Dale Ellis 99
48. Paul Pierce 98
49. Derrick Coleman 98
50. Ray Allen 97
HOF Monitor Scores of eligible players not in the HOF
1. Paul Westphal 143
2. Dominique Wilkins 142
3. Artis Gilmore 140
4. Spencer Haywood 138
5. Bernard King 135
6. Dennis Johnson 134
7. Adrian Dantley 130
8. Jack Sikma 125
9. Bob Davies 123
10. Larry Nance 122
11. Buck Williams 121
12. Gus Williams 120
13. Maurice Cheeks 118
14. Marques Johnson 118
15. Reggie Theus 117
16. Sidney Moncrief 116
17. Bill Laimbeer 116
18. George Mcginnis 114
19. Paul Silas 114
20. Chet Walker 113
21. Mark Price 113
22. Bob Dandridge 112
23. Walter Davis 112
24. Randy Smith 110
25. Jojo White 110
26. Lafayette Lever 110
27. Norm Nixon 109
28. Bill Bridges 109
29. Jamaal Wilkes 109
30. Derek Harper 108
31. Richie Guerin 107
32. Joe Dumars 105
33. Truck Robinson 105
34. Dick Vanarsdale 105
35. Alvin Robertson 104
36. Rolando Blackman 104
37. Sam Lacey 104
38. Byron Scott 104
39. Maurice Lucas 104
40. Happy Hairston 103
41. Tom Chambers 102
42. Alvan Adams 101
43. Jeff Mullins 101
44. Norm Vanlier 101
45. Max Zaslofsky 101
46. Gus Johnson 100
47. Johnny Kerr 100
48. Rudy Tomjanovich 100
49. Sidney Wicks 99
50. Dan Roundfield 99
