Will a major injury affect the 2010 playoff race?

[Reality]

It's purely speculative, and injuries happen every year.  But injuries to superstars that affect the eventual Championship (Timmy Dunks 2000) do not happen every year.
Do you think it will happen this year and to whom?
Lighten up, it's just speculation (altho based on previous injuries we could have some candidates).
Feel free to add to the list.

Top Tier we have the best players on their team.  If they get injured their team is not going to title.  No one else could lead them.
Timmy Dunkar
Dwight Howard
LeBron
DWade
KG
Chris Paul
DWill

Pao Gasol
Joey Crawford
Dick Bavetta

Nash?  Or lost a step?

2nd Tier  These are not the best players on their team, but it's a given their team cannot title without them.
Manu GNob
Kobe
Paul Pierce

Some of these players have already had playoff altering injuries Timmy Dunks, GNOb, KG.  Others have high mileage even tho they appear healthy now ie Kobes.

[jemagee]

There a couple guys listed there that even if they play 82 games I don't see their teams coming close to sniffing conference finals, let alone an NBA title (CHris Paul, Dwyane Wade...neither of those teams are serious title contenders anyway - so I don't see their injuries impacting title race, but possibly playoff races)

The odds do not favor the continued health of Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, Luol Deng (and two of those teams have a shot at at last making the playoffs)

[Reality]

Yeah i was gonna say we've already had an altering injury in Yao, but despite Houstons 22 game steak and 57 wins they did their usual one and out in the playoffs so...no Yao on the list.
Chris Paul and New Orl probably not a threat, true.  But they did go 7 games in Round 2 of 2008 before stepping backwords last year.
DWill and Utah ditto.  Or should we put Okur on Tier 2 or Tier 3?

[jemagee]

I don't think New Orleans got better in this off season - they took a step back in 2008/09 (paying too much for posey while not addressing their real problems) and I don't think they got better in the Tyson Chandler deal.  I think Shinn is back up against the wall and money matters more than winning.

I think a HEALTHY utah with a MOTIVATED (contract drive) boozer is a serious title threat.

Does Greg Oden in Portland count - supposedly they're the 'up and comers' - and this would be his second full season

[rickortreat]

I don't even want to think about it. I wouldn't say it ruined the Sixers but losing Elton Brand hurt their playoff chances. Injuries are part of the game, but I hate how it effects the outcome.

Boston might have enjoyed a back-to-back championship if KG didn't go down. You could argue that LA won, because of that injury.

It has nothing to do with teamwork, strategy or even conditioning.  It can undermine a team's plans suddenly and leave them vulnerable in an area they thought they had under control.

I think the Saints probably would have beaten the Eagles even with McNabb, thanks to the specials teams mistakes. And it actually made the Eagles stronger, since Kolb established that he could play the position. But the Eagles also lost their starting middle linebacker before the first game, and they have been struggling against the run ever since.  As a result, they resigned Jerimiah Trotter who has been out of football, in the hope that he could help them stop the run. 

Chances of it happening are hard to predict, and it's not something I would wish on anyone.  At the very least it ruins the quality of the competition and makes the games less competitive when the best players aren't on the floor.

[jemagee]

I was going to mention Elton Brand but his injries were more of the freak variety and not the chronic variety - adn even healthy i'm not sure they're a more than one and done playoff team.

My concern is Andre Iguodala - he's been VERY healthy most of his career except for one week or so - that concerns me.

[Reality]

Greg Oden, Brand and Iggy.

Good choices.  Will affect.

[jemagee]

It's rather easy to look at most teams and pick out the major injury that would hurt them the most...the likelihood of said injury occurring to said player much harder to discern...though if Gilbert Arenas goes down for an entire season, there are unborn children who wouldn't be surprised

[WayOutWest]

I was going to mention Elton Brand but his injries were more of the freak variety and not the chronic variety - adn even healthy i'm not sure they're a more than one and done playoff team.

My concern is Andre Iguodala - he's been VERY healthy most of his career except for one week or so - that concerns me.

Sixers were not going to do anything in the playoffs with Brand anyway, nor will they do anything this year with a healthy squad.

The only injuries that affected the playoffs were KG and the Magic PG.  Those injuries could have changed who went to the finals.  Had KG been healthy the Celtics would have probably gone to the Finals and got SMOKED by the Lakers, I really wish the Celtics had made it to Finals against a semi-healthy Lakers team.  Two years ago the Lakers would have won as well if they didn't lose two starters, the Celtics got really lucky to face a hurt Lakers team.  If the Magic would have been healthy last year they might have won two or maybe three games.

[jemagee]

I agree, the sixers aren't getting out of the first round this year, but I don't see the Heat or Hornets as serious contenders either (not even sure I see the Hornets as a playoff team...poor chris paul...he's going to be one of those great players on a crappy team most of his career)...

[Joe Vancil]

I think the Hornets are not only a playoff team, but an improved team, with Okafor taking over for Chandler.  To me, that's a big step forward.

[Lurker]

I agree with Joe. 

Okafor is definately an upgrade.  It should also help West's game.  They just need a solid perimeter defender and bench to be top tier.