Draft Position: Tyler Hansbrough

[Joe Vancil]

Folks,

With the draft coming up, it's time to throw the question out there for everyone:  where do you expect Tyler Hansbrough to go in the draft - to what team - and what do you think his chances as a pro are?

Hansbrough is from my neck of the woods - Poplar Bluff, MO - and his father is the doctor who set my niece's arm the two times she broke it.

I was very happy when Hansbrough went to Carolina, then stayed for his senior season, and won the National Championship.  And adding to the mix is the scoring record he now has.

So - where does he go - who does he go to - how well does he do?

I'll start it off - I think he goes to Utah in the first round - which opens up options for them in the Boozer/Millsapp question.  Hansbrough isn't likely starter material, but should be an effective bench player, provided he's in a good system.  I can see a 5-to-7 year career for him as an effective bench player.

I think he's a bit small to have a long-term career, or be a starter.  But I do think he'll be a solid guy.

[westkoast]

The insidehoops.com mock draft has him going to Indy 7 spots before Utah picks most likely because of his PPG (Indy needs it).  What makes you think he would slide to the back of the draft when theres only 3 other top prospects who made it over the 20 ppg mark?

[Joe Vancil]

Call it "Big White Stiff" fear.  Folks will be afraid he'll turn out like Danny Ferry.  And while Ferry wasn't bad, for as high as he was picked, he was a disappointment.

I don't see Hansbrough as a 20ppg kind of NBA scorer.  And I've not seen any mock drafts go very deep.

[Lurker]

Here is Chad Ford's take from ESPN...Hansborough is in the 4th tier: picks 11-24

To make sense of disparate rankings and debates over team needs, last year I chronicled a draft ranking system employed by several teams that have been very successful in the draft, what I call a tier system. Instead of developing an exact order from one to 60 of the best players in the draft, these teams group players, based on overall talent, into tiers. Then, the teams rank the players in each tier based on team need.


This system allows teams to draft not only the best player available, but also the player who best fits a team's individual needs.


So what do the tiers look like this year? After talking to several GMs and scouts whose teams employ this system, I put together these tiers. (Because the teams do not want to divulge their draft rankings publicly, the teams will remain anonymous.)

Players are listed alphabetically in each tier.

Tier 1
Blake Griffin

Note: Not only is Griffin the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft, but he seems to be a mile ahead of the next prospect in the draft. This is the first time we've had just one person in this, or any, tier.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2
James Harden
Ricky Rubio
Hasheem Thabeet

Note: Virtually every team I spoke with has these three players in the top five, regardless of team needs. A few teams argued Rubio should have this tier all to himself and Thabeet and Harden should be in Tier 3, but the majority saw all three in this tier.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 3
Stephen Curry
DeMar DeRozan
Tyreke Evans
Jonny Flynn
Jordan Hill
Jrue Holiday

Note: It was pretty easy to get consensus for Tier 3. Virtually every team I spoke with had all these players here. A few teams had Hill in Tier 2, and two teams had Brandon Jennings in this tier. But for the most part, this is pretty set and why a number of GMs say this draft really goes 10 deep. The Nets' Rod Thorn obviously is hoping someone from Tier 4 will creep up and push someone from Tier 3 down.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 4
DeJuan Blair
Earl Clark
Austin Daye
Tyler Hansbrough
Gerald Henderson
Brandon Jennings
James Johnson
Ty Lawson
Eric Maynor
B.J. Mullens
DaJuan Summers
Jeff Teague
Terrence Williams
Sam Young

Note: This is a huge tier and shows the parity in the draft. Theoretically, teams are saying you can get the same quality player at 11 that you will get at 24. This is where the real depth of the draft is. A few players like Blair, Clark, Hansbrough, Henderson, Jennings, Johnson, Teague and Williams were unanimous selections. Summers was borderline between here and Tier 5.

[Lurker]

And the mock draft from ESPN...

11. New Jersey
 
Tyler Hansbrough
Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 234
Age: 23
School: North Carolina 
Analysis: I know a lot of people were shocked when we put Hansbrough here this week, but sources continue to insist that he and Louisville's Terrence Williams are the front-runners now in New Jersey.

Rod Thorn has said he needs a moose, and in fact, the Nets have needs at both forward positions. But the three best candidates -- DeJuan Blair, Earl Clark and James Johnson -- all have issues. Blair's medical reports have created major red flags about his knees. Johnson is carrying around some baggage from his Wake Forest days. And Clark isn't the physical player they're really looking for.

Williams has his own set of issues that teams are sorting through, which gives Hansbrough a legit shot at going this high. He isn't going to be a dominant player in the league, but he has been productive, is as tough as nails and has measured better than expected in size and athleticism.

[rickortreat]

Here is Chad Ford's take from ESPN...Hansborough is in the 4th tier: picks 11-24

To make sense of disparate rankings and debates over team needs, last year I chronicled a draft ranking system employed by several teams that have been very successful in the draft, what I call a tier system. Instead of developing an exact order from one to 60 of the best players in the draft, these teams group players, based on overall talent, into tiers. Then, the teams rank the players in each tier based on team need.


This system allows teams to draft not only the best player available, but also the player who best fits a team's individual needs.


So what do the tiers look like this year? After talking to several GMs and scouts whose teams employ this system, I put together these tiers. (Because the teams do not want to divulge their draft rankings publicly, the teams will remain anonymous.)

Players are listed alphabetically in each tier.

Tier 1
Blake Griffin

Note: Not only is Griffin the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft, but he seems to be a mile ahead of the next prospect in the draft. This is the first time we've had just one person in this, or any, tier.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2
James Harden
Ricky Rubio
Hasheem Thabeet

Note: Virtually every team I spoke with has these three players in the top five, regardless of team needs. A few teams argued Rubio should have this tier all to himself and Thabeet and Harden should be in Tier 3, but the majority saw all three in this tier.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 3
Stephen Curry
DeMar DeRozan
Tyreke Evans
Jonny Flynn
Jordan Hill
Jrue Holiday

Note: It was pretty easy to get consensus for Tier 3. Virtually every team I spoke with had all these players here. A few teams had Hill in Tier 2, and two teams had Brandon Jennings in this tier. But for the most part, this is pretty set and why a number of GMs say this draft really goes 10 deep. The Nets' Rod Thorn obviously is hoping someone from Tier 4 will creep up and push someone from Tier 3 down.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 4
DeJuan Blair
Earl Clark
Austin Daye
Tyler Hansbrough
Gerald Henderson
Brandon Jennings
James Johnson
Ty Lawson
Eric Maynor
B.J. Mullens
DaJuan Summers
Jeff Teague
Terrence Williams
Sam Young

Note: This is a huge tier and shows the parity in the draft. Theoretically, teams are saying you can get the same quality player at 11 that you will get at 24. This is where the real depth of the draft is. A few players like Blair, Clark, Hansbrough, Henderson, Jennings, Johnson, Teague and Williams were unanimous selections. Summers was borderline between here and Tier 5.

I guess the question is what kind of NBA players are the tier 4 players supposed to become.  Will any of them ever become starters in the NBA and compete successfully against present NBA players?  And if some do, how many? What is the percentage of players in picked in the late first round turning into stars?  It seems a lot of highly touted players end up out of the league rather quickly after the teams realize they can't play.

[Lurker]

I guess the question is what kind of NBA players are the tier 4 players supposed to become.  Will any of them ever become starters in the NBA and compete successfully against present NBA players?  And if some do, how many? What is the percentage of players in picked in the late first round turning into stars?  It seems a lot of highly touted players end up out of the league rather quickly after the teams realize they can't play.

That is the point, rick.  Players at this "tier 4" level are solid college players.  They may or may not develop into NBA players.  Hansborough falls into that category...solid as a Tarheel; questionable as a pro.  He could be a Horace Grant...or a Mark Madsen.