Ziggy,
Tonight's game has been the first of the Houston/Portland series I saw, but if tonight's game is any indicator, the Blazer offense has a fatal flaw: it is incapable of going into transition. And the blame rests squarely on the shoulders of Steve Blake.
Over and over, when Portland needed to get on an offensive run, here's what I saw:
Blazers give the ball to Blake, Blake jogs the ball up the court, stops to allow the defense to set up (as well as his offense to get into position), then becomes overwhelmed as he's forced to make a play. Blake isn't dangerous enough to drive for the lay-up. Blake isn't fast enough to attack before the defense sets up. Blake isn't capable of doing anything other than making a pass - forcing someone else to do the creating - or spotting up for a three-pointer. THAT COULD BE ME! I could be playing point guard for the Blazers! Except I'd have driven and used my baby-hook a time or two.
When I saw Rodriguez at garbage time, he was doing the same thing Blake was doing!
If your offense is struggling, you need more athleticism, speed, and offensive firepower from your point guard....YOU SHOULD PUT IN JERRYD BAYLESS. I'm not sure what he's done to get buried underneath the bench there in Portland, but it seemed like tonight's problems could have been solved by putting in a scoring threat.
And at the other end, it didn't matter which point guard was in for Houston - they all just ate Blake up. Why not go to Bayless?
I just don't get it, ziggy. What's the deal there?
This is the way I see the Blazers.
Overall their offense was rated #1 in offensive efficiency, while in '07-08 they were #14.
Their defense was rated #13 in defensive efficiency, while in '07-08 they were #17.
They were the slowest paced team in the league, which is an estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team, while in '07-08 they were #29.
So this is consistent with your premise that needed to push the ball more, and get more points in transition. I believe this is very much a function of their coach, Nate McMillan. Nate says over and over, go early in the shot clock, and if you don't have anything then be patient and go late in the shot clock. I believe this is manifest in their performance, they are highly efficient offensively, they get easy fast break points when they are available, but if not they work diligently to get a good shot. I don't believe this is necessarily a Steve Blake issue, this is a Nate McMillan issue, and it is debatable if it is good or bad.
No two players are the same, but I see Steve Blake as roughly analogous to Derek Fisher. I don't have any data to back this up, it is just an anecdotal observation, but I believe Kobe winning % when he is playing with Derek Fisher is 10% to 15% higher. The 3 years that Fisher was gone were the 3 worst Laker seasons of the last 15 years. Fisher is the perfect backcourt mate for Kobe, and I think Steve Blake is very similar. Fishers game is to play defense, shoot 3's, space the floor, and not turn the ball over. Fisher is not a PG who is expected to "run" the offense, or get to the rim a lot, or run a lot in transition. What he does well allows Kobe to take full advantage of what he does well, and the ball is in Kobe's hands a lot because Fisher does not need the ball in his hands to be effective.
This is very similar to Steve Blake. They are different players, but they have a great many similarities, and he compliments Brandon Roy very well. The Blazers played at a 71% winning % with Blake and Roy on the floor at the same time. Now I am not averse to upgrading our PG situation, but I believe we have far bigger holes we need to plug than Steve Blake.
#1 we are a jump shooting team. We are highly efficient at it, but we are still a jump shooting team. We need to develop more of a low block presence. This is where Greg Oden must step up. He doesn't have to be a 20+ ppg game guy, but he has to be able to get 14-16 a night, get to the FT line, and get some easy points down low. Over the last 2 seasons we have had some incredible stretches. We won 13 straight and 17-18 in 07-08, and this year after the all-star break we were one of the very best teams in the league, blowing out lots of really good teams. At the same time, take away our 17 in 18 stretch and we won at a 31% pace. This year we were a borderline playoff team until the all-star break, and then we roared to the finish. In both cases we were shooting the lights out. If we are not shooting well from the outside we have only one other way to consistently score, and that is Brandon getting to the rim. That was the Houston series in a nutshell. We had games where we didn't shoot well, and we lost all of them, and the only reason we were close in games 3 & 4 was because Brandon got to the rim.
We need to move on from Travis Outlaw. Travis is a shooter, and when he shoots well he can win you a lot of games, but if he isn't then he is a black hole. He is what he is and he will not improve much from where he is today. He shot very poorly against Houston and he was a black hole. I believe Martell is a better option with the starting unit, and I like Batum's defense, and ability to get in the passing lanes, as well as his spot up shooting on the second unit. If he can develop his catch and shoot Batum has far more upside than Travis.
#2 we have to change our pick and roll and pick and pop defense. We are horrible at times defending this. Luis Scola ate our lunch over and over, because we would switch on every pick and roll, and we gave him tons of open looks (Scola is a very good player in the perfect situation for him. He is very underappreciated). Scola did great job against our pick and roll by pushing our PG further out allowing his PG to catch up, and then he went back to defending Aldridge. Aldridge didn't push Brooks out high, and that lead to a mismatch (LA on Brooks, or Blake on Scola) and they exploited us constantly with that.
#3 we have to develop more of Rudy's game than just as a spot up 3 point shooter. He needs to get into the lane, get fouled, and go to the rim. To make Rudy better we need a PG who can get in the lane and then pass out it to an open shooter, and when that happens, Rudy will be far more effective. Rudy's PPG & TS% were far better with Sergio on the floor than with Blake on the floor.
