Author Topic: Hollinger's Nerd Calcs With Much Sixers Love  (Read 1544 times)

Offline Sundown

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Hollinger's Nerd Calcs With Much Sixers Love
« on: January 30, 2009, 03:18:42 PM »
His Power Rankings have the Sixers at #8 which I don't care all that much about-- but look at a couple key stats which go into that ranking.

We're #3 in Margin of Victory (+7.09) in our last 10 games behind only the Cs and Magic-- ahead of the Lakers.

We're #3 in Strength of Schedule (.564 Opp. Winning %) during the last 25% of our games (~last 10 games) behind only the Bobcats and Magic so we're not exactly beating up on little Sisters of the Poor.

We're #9 in Strength of Schedule Overall (.515 Opp. Winning %), meaning we should have a relatively easier second half coming our way.

Plus when you look at Hollinger's Playoff Odds he has us at #4 in the EC with a 92.6% chance of making the playoffs.  That's ahead of Miami, Atlanta, and Detroit.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Offline tk76-

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Re: Hollinger's Nerd Calcs With Much Sixers Love
« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2009, 03:28:51 PM »
They were up to #6 in his ranking last week. 

His 45 win projection implies a 23-15 finish.  Sounds good to me...

Offline rickortreat

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Re: Hollinger's Nerd Calcs With Much Sixers Love
« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2009, 04:13:10 PM »
Stats are more objective.  The Sixers are playing better and it's showing up in the objective stats.  But you can't assume the team will continue to play the same way or only get better.  Those stats and projections change constantly based on what the team has done recently.

The team is still winning but, now they're winning tight games, not blowing teams out. I don't know if that's the schedule, the return of Brand or both. We'll find out tonight.  Games against bad teams are a good opportunity to pad the stats. Hollinger would say, that the stats suggest the Sixers will blow the Wizards out of the building.

I thought the Sixers would be about the 4th best team in the East at the beginning, with the hope that they might even be better.

Still too early in the Brand era to tell.

Offline Sundown

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Re: Hollinger's Nerd Calcs With Much Sixers Love
« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2009, 04:30:39 PM »
The question for me is whether they can consistently win close games down the stretch.  The Rockets game was a great close win and the 2nd Knicks game was fairly close, but many of their victories this month haven't been close at all.  They crushed Atlanta, Portland, San Antonio, and the Knicks by double digits and beat Charlotte and the Rockets (the 1st time) more easily than the score dictates.  On the other hand two of their losses-- Dallas and San Antonio-- were painful close losses.

The Sixers played well this whole month and expect them to continue playing this way for as long as Iguodala continues to excel.  I think Brand can do nothing but help-- he's displaying a great attitude and I like how DiLeo is approaching his return.