Most of the worthwhile free agents have been signed or moved to Europe, the draft and summer leagues are completed and a few sizable trades are in the books. Let's assume for now that the remaining RFA's like Ben Gordon, JR Smith, etc all take the QO or otherwise remain with their former teams. Here is my early take on the relative strength of the teams in the Western Conference:
1. LA Lakers - The top is bunched up pretty tight like last year, so health will be a major concern. I will go with the Lakers assuming Bynum is healthy. Otherwise they drop a couple of spots. Does an Odom for Marion trade make a bunch of sense here or what?
2. Charlotte Hornets - A little thinner up front than the Lakers with Bynum, but have more prominent players on the upswing of their careers.
3. Houston Rockets - I simply cannot assume a full year's health for Yao, McGrady or Artest (mental health counts too), plus their point guard situation is still less than desirable. This team could win the conference or barely make the playoffs depending on how healthy their big three is and hoe the team chemistry comes together.
4. Utah Jazz - A team that might hit a plateau just below conference champion. They need more depth and more production from the wings. I think a Kirilenko trade might be the way to shake things up, but they might not move him for fear of losing Boozer next summer.
5. San Antonio Spurs - Getting older, not much added this summer, the draft was less than inspiring and not geting Tiago Splitter to come over after trading Scola last year hurts. Still dangerous come playoff time.
6. Phoenix Suns - Slipping and transitioning, but still plenty of talent. The team seems a little poorly constructed and we will see how they fare under new coaching.
7. Portland Trailblazers - They should take the step into the playoffs this year and no one will want to play them. A powerhouse in the making, but one with fragile health in its young players.
8. Dallas Mavericks - Talent level is slipping rapidly, but still decent. A good candidate to completely fall apart, but I think Carlisle helps them stay competitive for a year or two.
9. Golden State - Still a lot of talent and could easily beat the Mavs out of the last playoff spot. Can Ellis become a PG, and if not, who sits out of Maggette and Jackson? Still more of a show than a team, but too much offensive firepower to be really bad.
10. LA Clippers - This is where the bad teams start, but the Clips might be decent if Eric Gordon develops, Baron Davis stays healthy and interested and Al Thornton keeps improving. Like the top of the conference the lower levels of the conference are tightly bunched.
11. Denver Nuggets - My candidate to be the Heat from last year, minus the injuries. The loss of Camby will be huge. Expect a full revolt by February with players, coaches and management pointing fingers at each other. It could get ugly.
12. Sacramento Kings - Might be better off blowing things up completely, but they will be competitive most nights. Look for them to really commit to rebuilding by trading Brad Miller at the deadline if he has any game left.
13. OKC ThunderBaronMarshals - Too much young talent to not improve a little. Talent too young to improve too much and fairly weak at the power positions.
14. Memphis Grizzlies - Cheap bastards, but will be beter if Gasol has improved in Europe like everyone says and if Arthur really did drop too far. Need to trade a PG for some more help up front.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves - I like Jefferson at PF, I like Love at PF, but as a PF-C pairing they will be a defnsive disaster. Still no top notch PG, but they should be more competitive as the talent level generally rises, but Kevin McHale still works here so the future looks less bright than it should.
Thoughts? Tomorrow, the Eastern Conference.
