The myth of Kobe as the premier end of game player

[Derek Bodner]

I think one thing that REALLY needs to be examined is sample size.  This isn't even one year.  This is one half a year.  in a statistic that 2 misses turned to made can make someone go from chump to hero.

Statistics are good, and I use them a lot.   But the fact that someone has gone 4-12 in game winning shots doesn't tell me much about what is going to happen the next time they take one.

[rickortreat]

I want to see Shaq's numbers here.  IMO, the best players to have the responsibility to take the last shot are usually the big men.

MJ was the only exception to this rule who was so successful at it that he willed the Bulls to win time and again.

Chamberlain and Russell were money players at the end of the game because they were hard to stop without getting a foul called.  Iverson gets murdered in a lot of situations like this and the refs genrally don't call fouls in these situations.

IMO, Shaq is the ultimate must score player in the league, simply because he cannot be stopped except by fouling. Now, he may have fallen off a bit as he's gotten older, but watch how effective he is at the end of games in the playoffs.  

[ziggy]

I think one thing that REALLY needs to be examined is sample size.  This isn't even one year.  This is one half a year.  in a statistic that 2 misses turned to made can make someone go from chump to hero.

Statistics are good, and I use them a lot.   But the fact that someone has gone 4-12 in game winning shots doesn't tell me much about what is going to happen the next time they take one.

Actually Derek this data is for 2-1/2 seasons.  Read in my original post after all the statistical data and you will see


The numbers are based on the combined regular season games for 03-04, 04-05 and 05-06 (through Feb. 26th).
 

[msc]

IMO, Shaq is the ultimate must score player in the league, simply because he cannot be stopped except by fouling. Now, he may have fallen off a bit as he's gotten older, but watch how effective he is at the end of games in the playoffs.

Has something changed since he's been in Miami?  I don't know b/c I haven't seen as many games.  In LA Shaq was a liability at the end of games b/c he can't hit his throws.  Phil used to take him out of the games during offensive possessions in the last couple of possessions for that reason.  Heck, the league changed the rules b/c teams used to just hack-a-Shaq ... remember?

Sorry, but Shaq is not clutch ... quite the opposite.  Not only from the line either.  I can recall several times down the stretch where he'd throw up bricks from the field.  Maybe someone can dispute this with stats, but that's my recollection.  

I think its funny how members of this board continually ripped on Shaq while he was on the Lakers.  He always commits offensive fouls, he never gets called for 3-second violations, he travels, he's not that skilled just big, yada, yada, yada.  Now that he's been on the Heat everyone's giving him props and focusing their animosity on Kobe.  I don't have to run a regression analysis to see the trend here ...



 

[ziggy]

"Kobe isn't the premier end of game player, ni matter how much ancedotal evidence you try to make stick to the wall."

He is one of the best players in the 4th quarter and there is plenty evidence to prove that.  I would consider end of game to be the 4th quarter.  Like I said clutch shots dont always come in that 24 seconds or less timeframe.

Now if you are saying he is not the best clutch player in the last 24 seconds of the game than your stats speak for you.

Of the top 5 guys you mentioned with those stats none of them have hit a big shot(s) in the playoffs or finals that won the game except AI.  In the top 10 only 3 players have (Vince Carter, Tracy Mcgrady, and Allen Iverson) done that.  Although I cannot remember if Damon Stoudamire has or not, correct me on that one cuz you woul dknow better than I would.

As far as Damon in the playoffs, to be honest I am getting old and I don't remeber that so well.  He has made a number of such shots in the regular season, in the playoffs, I just don't know.

Is Kobe a bad clutch player?  You never heard me say that.  I have seen him make tons of backbreaking shots, and crucial plays.  The thing is people remember the makes and forget all the misses.

[westkoast]

"Kobe isn't the premier end of game player, ni matter how much ancedotal evidence you try to make stick to the wall."

He is one of the best players in the 4th quarter and there is plenty evidence to prove that.  I would consider end of game to be the 4th quarter.  Like I said clutch shots dont always come in that 24 seconds or less timeframe.

Now if you are saying he is not the best clutch player in the last 24 seconds of the game than your stats speak for you.

Of the top 5 guys you mentioned with those stats none of them have hit a big shot(s) in the playoffs or finals that won the game except AI.  In the top 10 only 3 players have (Vince Carter, Tracy Mcgrady, and Allen Iverson) done that.  Although I cannot remember if Damon Stoudamire has or not, correct me on that one cuz you woul dknow better than I would.

As far as Damon in the playoffs, to be honest I am getting old and I don't remeber that so well.  He has made a number of such shots in the regular season, in the playoffs, I just don't know.

Is Kobe a bad clutch player?  You never heard me say that.  I have seen him make tons of backbreaking shots, and crucial plays.  The thing is people remember the makes and forget all the misses.

Oh ya I know you werent saying he is a bad clutch player just pointing out that he isn't the end all be all when it comes down to the last 24 seconds in a game.  In that regard one has to take a step back at take a look at what you provided.   Even Koast the notorious Kobe Bryant fan has to re-think his assestment based on this     Do I think Melo is a more clutch player than AI, Horry, Kerr, Bibby, Tracy, or Kobe? Nope.  Do I now think Melo is more clutch than I previous did?  Certainly.      Not that this stat breakdown is the end all be all (because I think alot of us have pointed intangibles out that cant really be calculated) but it def is a good way to look at the statistical information in that point in the game.  

Real great thread Ziggy, major props.  One of the better ones as far as debates/conversation we have had in a while.

[WayOutWest]

Shaq clutch?  BWA...BWAHA...BWAHAHA.... BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA ....cough...cough... BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA ....

Did I mention... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:  

[Guest_Randy]

Kinda funny -- GM's were asked what player that they would MOST like to take the shot at the end of the game -- and they choose Kobe.  I guess they all buy into the "myth" too?   :rofl:  

[WayOutWest]

Kinda funny -- GM's were asked what player that they would MOST like to take the shot at the end of the game -- and they choose Kobe.  I guess they all buy into the "myth" too?   :rofl:

The problem with that survey is that the GM's are unbiased.  That simply will not do around here! :nonono: