http://www.lowpost.net/blog/ T-Mac is carrying
the Rockets this year. The Rockets dropped to 15-28 with today's loss to the Heat. In games in which Tracy McGrady has played, they're a more respectable (but still disappointing) 15-15. When McGrady is out of the lineup (due to back spasms), they're 0-13. Clearly, he has demonstrated through his absence just how vital he is to his team's success this season.
Which other players have proven themselves to be indispensable to their teams this year? Alternatively, along the lines of Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory, which players seem to be bringing their teams down? This analysis looks at players that have logged enough minutes and missed enough games to warrant inclusion:
Appeared in at least 10 games
Missed at least 5 games
Averaging at least 25 minutes per game
For each player meeting these criteria, I compared his team's winning percentage in games in which he played to the winning percentage in games in which he didn't play. First of all, here are the players who appear to be doing more harm than good:
Expendable Players (through games of 1/29/2006) Team Player Played Missed Difference
Raptors Jose Calderon 11-29 4-1 (0.525)
Grizzlies Mike Miller 20-18 5-0 (0.474)
Celtics Mark Blount 14-25 4-1 (0.441)
Mavericks Marquis Daniels 19-9 15-1 (0.259)
Kings Shareef Abdur-Rahim 12-22 6-4 (0.247)
Nuggets Kenyon Martin 17-18 8-3 (0.242)
Magic Jameer Nelson 15-22 3-2 (0.195)
Kings Peja Stojakovic 11-20 7-6 (0.184)
Bucks Bobby Simmons 19-18 4-2 (0.153)
Bucks T.J. Ford 19-18 4-2 (0.153)
Calderon is actually playing 26
minutes a game for Toronto. Notes:
No true Ewing Theory candidates here ... a few of them are former All-Stars, but none receives an inordinate amount of attention.
Obviously, 2 of these players (Blount and Stojakovic) were literally expendable, having been traded last week.
The Kings are 4-1 this year in games in which both Stojakovic and Abdur-Rahim do not play.
Abdur-Rahim has posted solid numbers (19.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG) for almost a decade in the league, but famously has yet to play for a winning team.
The identical played vs. missed records for the Bucks' Simmons and Ford are just a coincidence--they have no overlapping missed games.
At the other end of the spectrum, here are the players whose teams are doing much better when they're in the lineup this year:
Indispensable Players (through games of 1/29/2006) Team Player Played Missed Difference
Rockets Tracy McGrady 15-15 0-13 0.500
Jazz Andrei Kirilenko 19-15 2-8 0.359
Magic Steve Francis 17-19 1-5 0.306
Nuggets Earl Boykins 23-17 2-4 0.242
Heat James Posey 25-15 2-3 0.225
Pacers Ron Artest 10-6 11-15 0.202
Heat Shaquille O'Neal 18-9 9-9 0.167
Bobcats Emeka Okafor 8-18 3-16 0.150
Cavs Larry Hughes 18-10 7-7 0.143
Grizzlies Damon Stoudamire 17-10 8-8 0.130
Notes:
The Heat are winning more this year with Shaq in the lineup, although last year his presence throughout the regular season and playoffs seemed to have little impact on the bottom line: The Heat were 62-24 in games that he played, and 8-3 in games that he missed.
Posey appears on the list because in most of the games that he missed, Shaq was also out. As with "unadjusted" plus/minus ratings, it's important to keep other factors like this in mind.
The effect of Hughes' presence on the Wizards last season was very similar to his effect on the Cavs this year: both teams were several games above .500 with him in the lineup, and right around .500 with him out
