Author Topic: Draft comments  (Read 3793 times)

Offline ziggy

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« on: October 24, 2004, 07:47:56 PM »
Opinions on your draft.
 
A third-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking with the majority. A second-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking with the minority. A first-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking.

A quotation is a handy thing to have about, saving one the trouble of thinking for oneself.

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Offline ziggy

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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2004, 08:13:47 PM »
I am very happy.  I had 2 good keepers, so rounds 3 and 4 were critical for me.  I had Brad Miller #1, Zach #2, and Artest #3 on my board, and I got 2 of the 3.  I was hoping for Billups, Arenas, or Terry to fall to me in the 5th, and I got Terry so that was great.
I am a little concerned that I have too many Blazers, especially at the front court positions, but Theo at 63, and Shareef at 82 are too good to pass up.  Shareef will eventually become eligible at SF as well, which will give me greater flexibility.  I think Jason Williams at 87 is also a very good pick.  Larry Hughes, Kerry Kittle, Wally Szczerbiak (if he is healthy), and Vlade (if he is healthy also) with my last 4 picks (106, 111, 130, 135) are all very solid picks.
I am a little weak up front, because on certain nights I will have no Blazers, leaving me with only Dirk and Vlade.

Overall though I am happy.  This is a tough league, with plugged in players, so the talent is fairly well dispersed.
A third-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking with the majority. A second-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking with the minority. A first-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking.

A quotation is a handy thing to have about, saving one the trouble of thinking for oneself.

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Offline ziggy

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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2004, 09:07:10 PM »
My take on the other drafts

Wolverine  -  had one of the poorest set of keepers, but overall I think he did pretty good.  I wouldn't have picked Francis as the first non-keeper, but overall no bad picks.  Posey was probably a bit high, not much though.

Ferrets  -  First 4 picks are real good, but Spree, Houston, Hart and ERob are all marginal picks I think.  I have never seen Spree be on a good fantasy team, his teams always seem to finish in the bottom 1/2.

Randy  -  I questioned Harrington as a keeper, but Arenas in the 5th, Okagor in the 6th, Prince in the 9th, and NVE in the 12 were all good picks.  AI in the 3rd will probably be OK, but he is just like Spree.  I can never recall a fantasy team that he was on that finished in the top 4.

BBF  -  Last year he went with some risky picks early, some of which panned out.  this year he went with more established players and not one iffy pick until Stackhouse.  Stackhouse is #3 of the fantasy killers, and I think Foyle was to high.  Overall though I think he had 8 really good picks to start with.

Ted  -  First bonehead of the season, picked Garnett instead of LeBron.  I think JRich and Juwan Howard were too high, otherwise he did OK.  A little questionable in the middle especially given Camby's history.  If anything happens he only has Kamen for the middle.

Bod  -  Everybody seemed to pick his guys.  Walker in the 4th could be great, I just hate the guy.  He has been on a lot of fantasy winners, and he brings a lot of stats.  Moving out of big D in a contract year could lead to a big year.

Jihad  -  Good draft, only thing was Glenn Robinson that high, should have been a couple of rounds later.

Lttks  -  Miller was good, Wade in the 4th was fine, Dre in the 5th was good, DAmpier in the 6th was OK, but I think Dunleavy in the 7th was to high, and Etan Thomas in the 9th were to high.  Also I think Hedo is a waste.

Jerry Lewis  -  Webber in the 3rd could be good, Bibby in the 4th is good.  Curry was OK, but I think Mason is very overrated.  Brezac will be a good #11 pick at center, and Ridnour is OK in the 12th.

Skander -  I thought KMart was too high, but VC in the 4th is excellent.  GP I don't about, and KVH was too high.  Blount I don't know.  I had him late last year and he was really solid, but I need to see more before I take him in the 7th.  I think Damon at #86 was really good.  I thought for sure he was going to take JWilliams instead which would have left me with Damon as my #2 PG.

Genghis  -  I would have taken VC before Finley and Lewis.  I think Gerald Wallace is a good player I just think he would have been there later.  Okur, QRich, Gooden and Alston were all fine.  I think Candyman was a total waste, he sucks.  Tony Delk really doesn't matter Genghis will use that slot to add and drop anyway.
A third-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking with the majority. A second-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking with the minority. A first-rate mind is only happy when it is thinking.

A quotation is a handy thing to have about, saving one the trouble of thinking for oneself.

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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2004, 07:39:35 AM »
Actually, Olowakandi was supposed to be Tony Delk, and my 12 pick was to be Bobby Sura, who would be placed on the IL, and then I'd pick up the center I *REALLY* wanted.  I was looking through centers, trying to decide between a few of them and a few of the power forwards.  Apparently, I had my cursor on Olowakandi.

Delk isn't actually an add-drop player yet.  Given the fact that he's in Atlanta, and might be starting there, he may put up the kind of numbers he did for Boston BBallers two years back, in which case that leaves me looking to deal Delk or Alston.

Gerald Wallace is a gamble, and I know it.  I didn't want to leave him out on the board for Caleb and Skander to grab for.

Vince Carter was there for me, and I gave him some thought, but when is the guy ever going to be healthy for a whole season?  I wimped out and took Finley, who produced for me last year.  His numbers will be down a bit this year, but given my choices and the way I prefer to run my team, Finley was the best choice for me.

I had Lewis projected to fall to me at 13, and that's a guy I wanted.  Teamed with Brad Miller, Nash, and Duncan, he'd be the kind of player I'd want.  Unfortunately, he doesn't look so good teamed with Michael Finley.  I considered Artest, but I don't like his situation in Indiana.  Reggie Miller is going to see minutes, and so is Steven Jackson, and one would also presume Jonathan Bender will get a few.  Artest will get the lion's share...assuming he doesn't serve as a distraction and doesn't tick off his teammates.  That's not a gamble I'm willing to take.

Brad Miller was number one on my list of players I wanted, but I suspected he wouldn't make it past LTTK, and I might have gambled on Webber, but he disappeared just as quickly.  I then started looking at Zach Randolph and Kenyon Martin, and sure enough, Ziggy and Skander took them - which serves them both right, I guess, since both Ziggy and Skander had Brad Miller as number 1 on their lists!  Brad Miller was rumored to want to wear the furry white uniforms of the Polar Bears again, but it wasn't to be.

Everybody was really high on my sleepers, it seemed:  Dwight Howard, Grant Hill, Primoz Brezec.  The only one I got was Drew Gooden - and I picked him up earlier than I wanted to.

I've got LTTK as the team to beat, with Ziggy right behind him, and Jihad's team being intriguing *IF* he decides to use those last few players as folks to fill in the gaps in games, because I don't see Wagner or Butler getting many minutes.  As for LTTK, I disagree completely with Ziggy on Dunleavy and Turkoglu.  Those are good picks.

My team is iffy.  There are a lot of make-or-break players who could just as easily go one way or the other - starting with Steve Nash.  If enough pan out, I'll be competitive.  If not, I'll be hibernating early.


 

Offline SPURSX3

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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2004, 07:56:20 AM »
Quote
My take on the other drafts

Wolverine  -  had one of the poorest set of keepers, but overall I think he did pretty good.  I wouldn't have picked Francis as the first non-keeper, but overall no bad picks.  Posey was probably a bit high, not much though.

Ferrets  -  First 4 picks are real good, but Spree, Houston, Hart and ERob are all marginal picks I think.  I have never seen Spree be on a good fantasy team, his teams always seem to finish in the bottom 1/2.

Randy  -  I questioned Harrington as a keeper, but Arenas in the 5th, Okagor in the 6th, Prince in the 9th, and NVE in the 12 were all good picks.  AI in the 3rd will probably be OK, but he is just like Spree.  I can never recall a fantasy team that he was on that finished in the top 4.

BBF  -  Last year he went with some risky picks early, some of which panned out.  this year he went with more established players and not one iffy pick until Stackhouse.  Stackhouse is #3 of the fantasy killers, and I think Foyle was to high.  Overall though I think he had 8 really good picks to start with.

Ted  -  First bonehead of the season, picked Garnett instead of LeBron.  I think JRich and Juwan Howard were too high, otherwise he did OK.  A little questionable in the middle especially given Camby's history.  If anything happens he only has Kamen for the middle.

Bod  -  Everybody seemed to pick his guys.  Walker in the 4th could be great, I just hate the guy.  He has been on a lot of fantasy winners, and he brings a lot of stats.  Moving out of big D in a contract year could lead to a big year.

Jihad  -  Good draft, only thing was Glenn Robinson that high, should have been a couple of rounds later.

Lttks  -  Miller was good, Wade in the 4th was fine, Dre in the 5th was good, DAmpier in the 6th was OK, but I think Dunleavy in the 7th was to high, and Etan Thomas in the 9th were to high.  Also I think Hedo is a waste.

Jerry Lewis  -  Webber in the 3rd could be good, Bibby in the 4th is good.  Curry was OK, but I think Mason is very overrated.  Brezac will be a good #11 pick at center, and Ridnour is OK in the 12th.

Skander -  I thought KMart was too high, but VC in the 4th is excellent.  GP I don't about, and KVH was too high.  Blount I don't know.  I had him late last year and he was really solid, but I need to see more before I take him in the 7th.  I think Damon at #86 was really good.  I thought for sure he was going to take JWilliams instead which would have left me with Damon as my #2 PG.

Genghis  -  I would have taken VC before Finley and Lewis.  I think Gerald Wallace is a good player I just think he would have been there later.  Okur, QRich, Gooden and Alston were all fine.  I think Candyman was a total waste, he sucks.  Tony Delk really doesn't matter Genghis will use that slot to add and drop anyway.
zig it was all luck, i did the auto draft becuase i was in denver at the time of draft...  i was afraid i would end up a lot worse .....
On the set of Walker Texas Ranger Chuck Norris brought a dying lamb back to life by nuzzling it with his beard. As the onlookers gathered, the lamb sprang to life. Chuck Norris then roundhouse kicked it, killing it instantly. The lesson? The good Chuck giveth, and the good Chuck, he taketh away.

Offline Lurker

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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2004, 09:47:41 AM »
I had problems connecting from home.  I tested my system at 6:00 and had no problem.  When I came back at draft time I kept getting a message that I wasn't part of the league.   So my first two picks (Marbury & Donyell) were based on prerankings.  Since my keepers covered the forward & center slots I had several PGs at the top of my list.  And Marshall has been a fantasy stud for the past two seasons.

After that I tried then to pick best players left on the board....especially those that are multiposition.  Also I am betting on players that have had injuries the past couple years....Hill was a sleeper, Murphy can be a double double machine, Zo as my 12th pick.  Stackhouse was to fill a need as I didn't have a true SG and he should put up decent numbers as a 6th man in Dallas.  Foyle was desperation as center positions were fading fast....and without Dampier around he will get minutes for the Warriors.  My potential weakness is at the point....after Marbury the only pg eligible player is Barry.
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Offline SPURSX3

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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2004, 10:13:22 AM »
Quote
I had problems connecting from home.  I tested my system at 6:00 and had no problem.  When I came back at draft time I kept getting a message that I wasn't part of the league.   So my first two picks (Marbury & Donyell) were based on prerankings.  Since my keepers covered the forward & center slots I had several PGs at the top of my list.  And Marshall has been a fantasy stud for the past two seasons.

After that I tried then to pick best players left on the board....especially those that are multiposition.  Also I am betting on players that have had injuries the past couple years....Hill was a sleeper, Murphy can be a double double machine, Zo as my 12th pick.  Stackhouse was to fill a need as I didn't have a true SG and he should put up decent numbers as a 6th man in Dallas.  Foyle was desperation as center positions were fading fast....and without Dampier around he will get minutes for the Warriors.  My potential weakness is at the point....after Marbury the only pg eligible player is Barry.
so when you get ther news  that hills ankle is busted again as he goes up over zo who knocked him down due to incredible pain - and they both have to retire - you will not feel bad about your picks huh?


 :alcohol:  
On the set of Walker Texas Ranger Chuck Norris brought a dying lamb back to life by nuzzling it with his beard. As the onlookers gathered, the lamb sprang to life. Chuck Norris then roundhouse kicked it, killing it instantly. The lesson? The good Chuck giveth, and the good Chuck, he taketh away.

Offline Lurker

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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2004, 10:53:21 AM »
Quote
so when you get ther news  that hills ankle is busted again as he goes up over zo who knocked him down due to incredible pain - and they both have to retire - you will not feel bad about your picks huh?


 :alcohol:
Nope, not at all.  Zo was a 12th pick....look at who else was available.

Hill was a gamble but could play 82 games and fill up several categories.

If they go down then the go to IR or the waiver wire and I will replace them with free agents.  If they produce then I will be seen as a genius.  Sounds like your typical GM.
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Offline Derek Bodner

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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2004, 01:00:56 PM »
Very mixed feelings about my team.

First of all, I HATE some of the people I drafted.  Antoine Walker and Jalen Rose, mainly.

Second, darn bums.  Kept taking my players.

First, with Kidd down, I really wanted a top flight pg.  A G preferrably.  Top on my draft board was Allen Iverson, who's now listed as a SG, but should get PG status once the season starts.  With Kidd out, he'd be my pg.  When Kidd gets back, he'd be my SG.  He was perfect for my team.  And I really thought with him missing so much time and having a negative connotation on this board he'd be there at 6.  But doggonit pg's flew off like trees this year.

My 2nd option was Francis.  He wasn't going to be able to play sg, so when Kidd came back I'd have a problem.  But he's going to be the best fantasy pg in the game this year, bar none.  I truely expect him to go back to 21/7/7 with 1.5 3ptm and 1.7 steals/game you used to be able to penci him in as prior to van gundy.  That's a top 15 fantasy player, easily.  and with Kidd not playing probably the best pg in the game.  But alas, he was taken #1.

Once those 2 were gone I was really hoping to get Baron Davis, the last of teh stud pg' s available.  But he went second.  At that point I was willing to wait until the 4th round to fill the pg spot, hoping one of marbury, cassell, bibby, wade or billups would slide.  

I then went with what fit my team best once Kidd gets backup.  Having pg spot taken, as well as sf or pf (depending on whatever I get to compliment KG) I needed either a 2 or a 5.  I would have taken B Miller if Kidd had been healthy, but with him being down I decided I needed to go BPA rather than a positional need, so I added Redd.  Adding Redd really helps cover up the weaknesses of Kidd and KG's outside games.  Plus, he's the undisputed leader of that team, and is playing for a contract.

Now, onto the 4th round.  I was really hoping Maggette would slip.  Bigtime points and free throws.  But...true to form, he went next.Then, all the available pg's went right before me.  Literally, Bibby, Wade and Billups went the 3 picks before me.  I wasn't too thrilled with Arenas (too many turnovers, too many games missed) to go with in round 4, but would have taken him if he slipped to me at 5 (of course, true to form, he went 3 picks before me). So....Having pg, sg, pf filled up, I went with versatility, and made the first pick I really don't like (personality wise, at least).  

Antoine Walker.  Another F (combined with a western conference F in KG should help me fill up my lineup constantly).  This goes along with my 3rd round pick, Redd.  Antoine's gonna be a fantays stud, and I think people lose track of that because of how bad of a real player he actually is.  You put him at the SF and he'll give you 22 pts, 8 boards, 5 assists, 2.5 3ptm.  Studly  All those #'s are great #'s for a SF.  How many 3's average 22 pts?  How many 3's average 8 boards?  Is there a better passing (fantasy wise) tandem in the league than KG at the 4 and Walker at the 3, both capable of giving you 5 dimes a game?.  Being the man, as he will unquestionably be in Atlanta, has actually served him well.  In Boston, before Pierce showed up, he actually shot around 43% from the field and 33-34% from downtown.  Not great, but certainly not bad enough to offset all the great stats he puts up across the board.

So now I've gotta go with a Center or pg, badly.  I don't have either that will be active once the season starts.  Arenas goes off the board.  Now for my pg's I have 3 sleepers I liked, Hinrich and Tony Parker (who isn't a sleeper, but was still available) and Gary Payton, who I thought would last to me at least one more round.  I excluded Andre Miller (who would have absolutely taken me out of 3pt%) and Jason Terry (not sure of what his role will be in Dallas), so I'm looking squarely at Center, with Bosh, Ilgauskas and Magloire the top options (I was hoping to land Okafor a few rounds later).  I ended up taking Ilgauskas mainly because I'm not certain Bosh will explode quite yet (still think he's a year away), and he has some of the same weaknesses as big Z (not a great rebounder for a c).  So I went proven.  I wasn't sure what Magloire will do in the West (although I have a hunch I'm going to regret passing on him during the season).

Here's the pick I like the most.  I kinda figured Parker would be gone by my next pick, leaving me with the options of Hinrick and Payton.  I ended up having my choice of the 3.  Payton (like Okafor the round before) I thought I might be able to get a bit later, plus he hurt me in the areas I was previously trying to strengthen myself in (3ptm, 3pt%, free throws), so I waited on him.  And I honestly had Hinrick rated higher than Parker.  It really comes down to whether you want fg% (parker) or 3pt%, 3ptm and assists (hinrich).  I went with Hinrich.  Look at his post-all star game stats (when he started beating crawford out for the pg spot).  14.1 pts, 8.0 assists (to 2.5 turnovers), 4 rebounds, 2.2 3ptm @ 40.1%, 1.5 steals).  those are terrific 6 cat stats.  Now he's the undisputed pg in that system, the pride of the bulls, and should only improve.  Great replacement for Kidd until he comes back, and a great backup once Kidd does return.

After that, I wanted to go pg again.  But I also didn't want to overload on pg's where I couldn't use them once Kidd came back.  So I wanted a 'G'.  Couldn't take Gordon anymore, since I already had hinrich.  Pretty much left me with.....

Jalen Rose.  Another player I hate.  But another nice fantasy player.  All his attributes are desperately needed in Toronto, scoring, playmaking, shooting and ballhandling.  I fully expect him to get around 16-18 pts, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, hitting about a 3 and a half a game, and shoot fairly decent clip from the field (44.3% from the field and 34.7% from the arc for his career).  That, plus his ability be be a backup pg and sg (and I needed a backup pg with Kidd out and only having hinrich) is nice.

I then just started going BPA.  I was hoping Eddy Curry would last until my next pick, but he went 2 before me.  So I went with Joe Johnson.  He was absolutely studly last year after penny was traded, and I have no idea how he fell this far.  His teammate Quentin Richardson was taken earlier, and Q's coming off the bench and puts up worse fantasy stats.  This boy put up 17.2 pts, 4.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.1 3's (at 32%), 43.5% fg, and 1.1 steals as a starter last year.  Again, look at those stats for a 2 guard, did it all.  Rebounded well for a 2, distributed well for a 2, broke 40% from the field (which, sadly, is good for a 2), and hits 3's.  He's gotten better with every year.  Q's here now, so his minutes might decrease a tad.  But there's been talk of playing Q at the 2, JJ at the 3, Marion at the 4 and  Amare at center for portions of the game, so not only do I still expect him to get 35+ mpg, but I expect him to get GF eligibility.

next pick was a boom-bust pick.  Before Chandler was injured last year he was an FC putting up an easy double double.  He's got a ton of all-around fantasy potential, and is a hard worker in a contract year.  Ka-ching.

Hayes I think will be quite improved this year, I was impressed the few times I saw him in preseason.  LaFrentz was a need pick, who could have a very high ceiling for an 11th round pick.  And I think Nocioni is going to be a flat-out steal.  I've seen this kid play a few times and he could contend for ROY.  He reminds me of a G/F version of Kirilenko.  And could put up solid stats in all cats this year.  Word has it he's beaten Gordon out for the starting spot along with Deng at the 2/3.  Who knows, maybe he even gets GF status.

Hurt taking 3 Bulls players (Hinrick, Chandler, Nocioni) because I like to spread it out more.  But I took them based on value.

Overall, I'm semi-happy with my draft.  Not ecstatic, that's for sure.  With the Kidd development then what happened in the first round (not getting Iverson, Francis or Davis) I couldn't be too happy.  I also think I took some chances on unreliable guys like Walker, Rose, Ilguaskas.

I pretty much conceded TO's, and might have conceded fg% as well.  But I think I should be almost unbeatable in turnovers, especially once Kidd gets back.  It's conceivable I could throw out a lineup that includes 9 assists at the pg (Kidd), 5 assists at the 2 (either Rose or JJ), 5 assists at the 3 (Walker) and 5 assists at the 4 (KG), with 8 assists from the util (hinrich).  That could make a quick comeback if I'm ever down in that cat.  I should also do superb in points (3 20 pt/game scorers in my starting lineup, with my C getting 17-18).  And good in rebounds (great rebounding forwards, 12+ from Garnett and 8 from Walker).  Good in 3ptm as well (Hinrich, Redd, Walker, JJ, Rose), and should be able to hold my own in 3pt%.

Really, I'm only overly worried about to's and fg%.  Once I get Kidd backup I'm really happy.  Right now I'm a little short on pg's (2 on roster) and C's (2 on roster), so will look to pick one of them up once Kidd can be placed on IR.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2004, 01:08:59 PM by dbodner »

Offline ziggy

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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2004, 11:11:19 PM »
Interesting post Derek.  I always enjoy hearing others people reasoning for why they did what they did.  The key to fantasy is getting talent later than the "stats" would indicate it should go, not taking players earlier than their production would indicate, and finding those "sleepers" who you get late in the draft but provide big results.

This can come in the form of veterans who are "underrated" for the stats they provide, and making sure that the "name" doesn't make you take a player earlier than you should, and by finding those who don't have a record of production and getting them low in the draft.

In all the time I have played fantasy basketball there are certain players that never seem to play on winners or really good teams.  My incomplete list of those players are;
Latrell Sprewell
Jerry Stackhouse
Jalen Rose
Allen Iverson
Shaq.

I had Spree and Rose on the same team one year, and that team lanquished in 4th to 6th, until I finally got rid of both.  By the end of the year I finished second.  Consider Joe last year, as soon as he got rid of Rose his fortunes turned.  It wasn't all because of Rose, but I do not think it is coincidental.
I had Stackhouse on a team and I was in 4th until mid-season when I finally moved him, and almost immediately I started moving up and ended up in first.  I picked up Stackhouse as an injury replacement for about 2 weeks late last year.  He scored some points and actually got some assists, but I felt he hurt me a lot more than he helped me.
I had Shaq on 2 teams last year.  I traded him in one, and finished first.  I kept him in the other, and even with a lot of talent (Brand, Ben Wallace, Jamal Crawford, Ron Artest, and a couple of others) I still finished fourth, losing to a team that "RELEASED" Donyell Marshall on the Saturday before the final week.

Players that often play on good teams are
Shawn Marion
Antoine Walker
Ben Wallace
Andre Kirilenko
Peja
Dirk
Brent Barry
Rashard Lewis
Donyell Marshall

I think part of the reason is they all (except for Walker, and Ben Wallace) shoot the ball well, and tend to avoid TO's, and get a fair amount of steals.  I think Brad Miller is another player that fits that mold.  I think part of the reason Walker and Wallace end up on good teams, is because they are somewhat of a freak.  Walker gets rebounds, assists, steals, and 3's like no other big guy.  Wallace rebounds, blocks, like almost no one else and has very few TO's even for a good big guy.  The player most like Walker last year I think was Baron Davis.

I feel you made a great pick in LaFrentz.  I picked him in another league, and if he is healthy he is a very unique big guy.  I think Tyson Chandler was also a good pick.  Based upon his numbers when he was healthy, he was no worse than a 3rd rounder.  The big question is will he be healthy, and I figure you can't win unless you take a few chances.  He is a risk worth taking.

I don't know that much about Jarvis Hayes, but he had some good moments.  Nocioni is someone I know nothing about.  How much are you risking with the 12th pick?  If he is even a really really poor mans Kirilenko, then you got a huge steal.  I like Redd, he is a very safe pick.  He does a couple of things well, but really has no weakness, except blocks, and he doesn't get a huge number of steals.  I think Hinrich is a good player.  Big question is did you take him to early.  In the 6th I suspect not.

I am not sold on Joe Johnson though.  He made some good strides last year, but he also played over 40 minutes per game.  With QRich on the team now, I think his minutes will fall to more like 34, and his numers will fall accordingly.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2004, 12:03:25 AM by ziggy »
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Offline ziggy

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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2004, 12:21:33 AM »
Quote
As for LTTK, I disagree completely with Ziggy on Dunleavy and Turkoglu.  Those are good picks.
 
Joe, so what about Dunleavy and Hedo do you see that makes you think they will make big strides this year?  Yes, Dunleavy made a big jump last year from his rookie year, but even with that nothing he did could be considered "good".  The only area where you could say he was maybe above average was in FG% and 3Pt %, but neither number is really all that flash.  He had an assist to TO ratio of 1.5, and he is suppoed to be a great passer, and he averaged barely 5 boards and he is 6-9.  I think he is a player who should have been drafted, but I felt he was "early".

As far as Hedo, look at his numbers last year and compare them to 2001-02.  Same number of games, about the same number of minutes.  No way you can say he improved, at best he stayed the same.  The numbers he has had the last couple of years are about what you should expect out of him.  He may make some improvement, but he hasn't and he has been given some real opportunities.  There are better players that weren't taken, and better players taken after him.  In 2001-02 one could say he is progressing and coming into his own.  After two more years that were the same or worse, one can't say that he is now going to make huge strides.  He is a mediocre #7/#8 guy in a rotation.

That of course is my opinion, so please tell why you think I am wrong.
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Offline Joe Vancil

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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2004, 10:59:28 AM »
Ziggy,
     I like Dunleavy because Dunleavy is made a huge step up last year, and figures to do even more this year as a COLLEGE coach takes over a pro team.  When that happens, you see players with strong college backgrounds step up, and there's not a stronger college background than Duke.  Secondly, Dunleavy is the closest thing to a stable scoring force that Golden State has.  Richardson and Pietrus will be battling for time, and the el-cheapo Warriors will look to move the more expensive of the two - Richardson - who is Dunleavy's chief competitor for scoring chances.  Cheaney is a year older, meaning less minutes, although he's also one of those guys with a strong college background (Indiana under Knight), so he may like the new coach as well.

     Hidyeat Turkoglu is going to a new system in Orlando that will be more up-tempo than the Spurs, that DOESN'T have an established inside game.  If his numbers "stayed the same" with the Spurs, after playing limited minutes the year before with the Kings, then you can expect them to go up with a high-octane offense.  And at the 3, in Orlando, you've got Turkoglu or Hill.  One of them is going to get the lion's share of minutes.  If it's Hill (which I think it will be), then you're looking at Turkoglu spending some time at the 2-guard.  Who is going to get the lion's share of minutes behind Mobley - DeShawn Stevenson, or Turkoglu?  Turkoglu.  Essentially, he's looking at being a 6th man and sparkplug off the bench in a high octane offense, and this team is going to have to outscore their opponents to win, because their best defenders are Grant Hill and Kelvin Cato.  If Pat Garrity ends up coming back, that just becomes even more true.  This team is becoming Dallas East.

     That's my thinking, and why I think those guys are good pick-ups.


 
Joe

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