Need some fantasy league advice

[Lurker]

I have been agoniziing over my keeper selections.  So I thought I would ask input from my fellow GMs and others on my team.  Sort of liking asking the fans who should get cut or not.   :alcohol:

Following players are who I have available to keep with their rank from last year:

Kittles      SG       27th
Christie    SG       31st
Odom       PF/SF   38th
Camby     F/C      42nd
Ginobili     SG       49th
Rasheed    PF/C    51st
J. Williams PG       53rd


Also have two young players looking for potential breakout years:

Wade    PG/SG
Dalembert   F/C

Any rational thoughts would be appreciated.

[Ted]

I would probably go with Kittles and Camby.  :nod:  

[Derek Bodner]

Kittles is out, I don't see him putting up the stats he did at the end of last year (maggette and brand require more shots, less transition opportunites).

Christie SG 31st - Out.  He's just not a keeper caliber player, no matter how solid the stats are.

Odom PF/SF 38th - Possible.  Had a breakout year last year.  Will he get as many shots playing with Kobe?  Should be able to rebound plenty though (who else plays in the frontcourt?) and could get a bit of assists as they run the offense through him (who's their starting pg?)

Camby F/C 42nd - between less minutes with the addition of KMart and Nene playing more at center, and the inevitable injury (you KNOW he won't go through 2 straight injury free years), stay away.

Ginobili SG 49th - Possible.  Should definitely be a starter this time around, and if he gets 35 mins/game he could put up 16/6/4/2 and hit a fair amount of 3's.  Not really a keeper quality, but you don't exactly have that many options.

Rasheed PF/C 51st - Gets a huge bump if he retains center eligibility.  "only" put up 14/7 with 2 blocks, a steal and a 3ptm last year with detroit.    But if he goes back to his stats he had with portland, could be solid.  remember, he is only 2 years removed from 19/8 with 1.5 blocks, steals, and 3 pt'ers/game.  Those are some nice keeper stats from a center.  Will he get back there?  Can he?

J. Williams PG 53rd - Not an option IMO.  Too much depth at pg.

Wade PG/SG - Probably your best option.  Was a heckuva fantasy player at times last year, and only expect him to improve.  Incredible in the playoffs.  Should play more point this year.

Dalembert F/C - Not quite ready for keeper status, even in weakened center position.  Having O'brien as a coach will hurt him, fantasy wise.  I have no doubt he could put up 10/10/4.  But O'brien will want to shoot the 3, which will decrease his offensive rebounding chances and scoring opportunities.  And O'brien plays the Dick Harter defense, predicated on fronting the post, which takes the center out of rebounding position.  Sam's one of the rising centers in the game, but he's not going to make that big of a leap statwise because of coaching philosophy.

IMO, you have 4 options.
Wade
Odom
Manu
Sheed

I'd probably go with Wade and Odom, unless you're overly worried about turnovers being a problem.

[Derek Bodner]

BTW, don't feel too bad.  In my one league I have Sheed and Billups as my keepers.  A year ago I had Kobe and Brand.  Figure that one out.

[Lurker]

IMO, you have 4 options.
Wade
Odom
Manu
Sheed

I'd probably go with Wade and Odom, unless you're overly worried about turnovers being a problem.

Actually I narrowed it down to the same 4 with basically the same logic.  And hoping that Sheed retains center status I am leaning towards Sheed & Wade.  

Sheed could run into playing time problems with Ben, Milicic, McDyess, Coleman, and Campbell.  Unless Brown runs him at the SF position for some minutes.

Manu's minutes will be split with Barry....also Pop keeps his minutes limited so that his energy stays high.  So I expect Manu's numbers to be similar to last year.

Odom in LA is a tough call...he may not play too much PF.  Assists could go up but it will depend on if LA has better shooters than Miami did a year ago.  And I'm not sure that they do.  In fact outside of Kobe the entire Laker roster gives me pause as far as what type of numbers they will put up.  New players, new coach, new system....tough to predict.

And it's not that I am feeling bad or down with my roster...it is just that the players are so equal in fantasy value that it makes it tough to pick just 2 of them.

[Lurker]

I would probably go with Kittles and Camby.  :nod:

Ted, I forgot to list my other options....Hedo Turkoglu & Lorezen Wright.  Now, with this info would you change your keepers?

 

[Guest_Randy]

What's tough, Lurker, is it doesn't look like you have a big man as a keeper -- Sheed is probably your best playing big man but he isn't going to put up fantasy numbers because of the team he is one, IMO.  Dalembert isn't going to give you much on the offensive end although his shot blocking and rebounds should be great.  Wade is a no-brainer, IMO, Shaq will make him even better than he was last year.  I'm not so sure that Odom isn't the choice I would go with -- he is a REAL risk but for the Lakers to do much of anything this year, he is going to have to be an essential part of the system (and he's the #2 guy, IMO).

I have this dilemna:  
  Keepers:  
          Jermaine O'Neal (no brainer)
          Vince Carter (great numbers WHEN he isn't hurt)
          Maggette  (great numbers but will Kittles lower his shots ?)

VC will put up better numbers, IMO, IF he isn't hurt and IF he chooses to WANT to play in Toronto again.  I really question that last part -- as if the first part wasn't dicey enough!

Thoughts?

[Lurker]

Randy...I know that I lack a good center.  Almost makes me lean towards Camby but I'm not delusional yet.

As far as your choice it is also tough.  Actually looking at your roster I would lean towards Harrington.  With starter minutes in Atlanta he may have a very solid year.  And then you can flip a coin over Carter/Maggette for your first draft choice in the #3 spot.

[Guest_Randy]

Lurker,

I had forgotten that I even had Harrington since he was the 6th man last year for Indy -- with Atlanta he should be THE option.  Hmm, choices, choices!  

[Joe Vancil]

Were I you, BBF, I'd keep Rasheed and Wade.  Wallace is solid but not spectacular, and Wade should get a boost from Shaq being in the line-up.

I'm not sold on Odom going back to LA.

I'm not sold on Ginobili as a keeper-type with Brent Barry in San An.

 

[ziggy]

Lurker,
If it was me it would be
Odom
Ginobili

Close 3rd is Sheed