Look - the situation is simple:
Jackson was gone. He was sick of the Shaq/Kobe feud, and trying to get Bryant to listen to him and buy into the triangle.
Kobe is gone if Jackson doesn't go, he gets the max offer, and gets to name the new coach...who will install a new offense, and designate Kobe, not Shaq, as the team foundation.
Payton is staying, but only if Jackson goes. After his showing in the playoffs, he's not going to get a better deal than the one he's got with the Lakers, and with Jackson gone, the triangle is gone.
Malone is hedging his bets. By opting out, he can make more money, and is only going to play for a team that has a title shot. If Houston wins the McGrady sweepstakes, the team could use a power forward to go along with Ming and McGrady. And if the Lakers keep all the pieces they need, it's a great place for him to land. In the meantime, Malone will talk the talk - "I'll only play for the Lakers."
Shaq's trade demand is because he sees Jackson leaving, and Kobe taking over the team. Shaq likes the triangle, likes Phil Jackson, and detests Bryant. Shaq likely lays the entire blame for the Finals loss on Bryant and his attitude.
Memphis is an interesting fit. They could trade for Shaq by sending lots of folks. Shaq loves West, and Hubie might not want to coach next year. Jackson/Shaq to Memphis? It's a possibility.
