ESPN NBA Insider - 4/28/04
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Wednesday, April 28, 2004
By Greg Anthony
ESPN Insider
The Sacramento Kings are on the verge of eliminating the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the playoffs without Bobby Jackson and with Chris Webber (although very solid throughout this series) a mere shadow of what he has been in the past.
The Kings will need more from Webber if they hope to wrap up this series, defeat Minnesota (which has but wrapped up its series with Denver) and have a legit chance to win a world's championship. However, the guy in my mind who holds the key to their success is the one who changed the face of this franchise and made it a legitimate title contender in the first place.
That, my friends, is Doug Christie.
Doug Christie
Shooting Guard
Sacramento Kings
Profile
2003-2004 SEASON STATISTICS
GM PPG RPG APG FG% FT%
82 10.1 4.0 4.2 .461 .860
Christie changed the Kings' identity and gave them a defensive mindset and toughness that they had lacked. When they have been the most dangerous, he has been at his best, and at no time has he been better than in this series.
Christie, in my mind (along with Bobby Jackson), gives this team an attitude that you need come playoff time. He is the one guy athletic enough to have an impact on both ends and is a real leader.
When you're struggling, leadership also has to come from your performance, and not just statistically. You have to show that fight and desire to not be denied and a willingness to do whatever it takes. Doug has been a difference-maker and a guy who the Kings need to play with energy and smarts as they try to reclaim the elite status they owned throughout the majority of the season.
In my opinion his leadership has been the biggest difference in this team thus far. Leadership is about attitude and sacrifice, a willingness to mix it up when called for and do the little things that help to build confidence, something this team was in dire need of.
When he first came to Sacramento, he brought that toughness and helped get the Kings over the hump with his toughness and desire to get after it defensively. But he went through a period where, instead of him bringing that blue collar work ethic and defensive mindset to the table, the opposite occurred and the team's flashy offensive mindset seeped into his game and that edge with which he played was lost.
And it's easy to have that occur. Because of all the success and the development of other players such as Mike Bibby and Peja Stojakovic, their imprint started to be the bigger influence on the team and that edge slowly dissipated.
But in the Dallas series, Christie's edge has returned and you see the Kings looking more like a team with his signature all over it once again. And guys are following his lead and getting back to defending and rebounding the way they did last season when, before Webber's knee injury, they were the favorites to win it all.
Now the question is whether it's too little too late or is there time for him to lead this team to the promised land. Only time will tell, but if he continues with his great play Sacramento will be a challenge for anyone remaining.
Greg Anthony, a veteran of 11 NBA seasons, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. Click here to send him an e-mail.
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Wednesday, April 28, 2004
By Roland Beech
Special to ESPN Insider
If you talk with coaches around the league and ask them what kind of innovative statistical tools they use, one of the standard replies will touch on charting how specific players play together.
Now for some coaches this may mean looking at two-man combos, while others focus on scouting frontcourt/backcourt permutations. By far the most common usage, though, is to take a look at how different five-man groups have fared on the court.
One of the interesting aspects to basketball is that the best five-man unit is not necessarily to be found by taking the best five players on a roster and putting them out on the floor at the same time. No one would want a "dream team" of five centers or five point guards, and finding the right balance of player attributes can be a tricky task -- there is a genuine need for the different skills of the various positions. A penetrating ball handler, an ace outside shooter, a defender who can shut down an opposing perimeter star, and yes the big men with inside moves and strong physical play in the paint all have roles to fill.
NBA Playoff Teams' Ratings
EAST WEST
1. Indiana 1. Minnesota
2. New Jersey 2. L.A. Lakers
3. Detroit 3. San Antonio
4. Miami 4. Sacramento
5. New Orleans 5. Dallas
6. Milwaukee 6. Memphis
7. New York 7. Houston
8. Boston 8. Denver
Sometimes you'll hear about players who are presumed to be unable to share court time. This year in Portland, there was a belief that Zach Randolph and Shareef Abdur-Rahim, two players with solid inside scoring games, were not compatible, and it led to Shareef seeing dwindling minutes coming off the bench after years of starting. Ironically, the stats in this case show that the team was on the plus side of the ledger when both were in the game, but there is reason to believe that guys can interfere with one another in many cases.
Teams will in the course of the regular season experiment with different starting lineups and player rotations in an attempt to get a better sense of which guys play at their peak with one other (and as importantly, which guys don't). Over the course of 82 games, there's definitely the sample size to find good combinations.
Of course, come playoff time the theory is the coaches know their players inside and out, and the matter at hand is optimizing the floor groups to take advantage of beneficial matchups with the opposing team. In a long series you can see patterns emerging as to which units are effective in their minutes. With so much on the line in every game, some players fall off the rotation completely despite big regular-season minutes, while emerging players having success facing the other team can take on more responsibility.
After four games in each of the first round series, three pairings have ended in sweeps, and only one set is tied up at two games each. Still, there have been some notable developments to watch in terms of five-man unit performance.
Sacramento vs. Dallas
Many prognosticators were calling out this series as likely to be the most competitive of the opening round, but while several games have been close, the Kings hold a commanding 3-1 lead heading back home. After sporting the most productive unit in the league during the regular season (in terms of cumulative ) with Bibby-Christie-Stojakovic-Miller-Divac, Chris Webber's return sparked a transition with Miller heading to the bench, and the results for the team were less impressive down the stretch. Indeed concerns were openly voiced that perhaps Webber may be harmful to the Kings' overall performance.
The playoffs can be a great cure-all, and so far Webber's time on the court has been productive, although we can't know how the top unit before Webber would have done, since Rick Adelman no longer plays them together.
Sacramento Kings
Unit Minutes W L W%
Bibby-Christie-Stojakovic-Webber-Divac 56.2 -6 3 1 75%
Bibby-Christie-Stojakovic-Webber-Miller 35.9 3 1 75%
The Kings were markedly better with Brad Miller on court during the season, and here too in the playoffs, he has been a key component in their most effective unit. While the starting five have a negative overall they have been on the plus side for three of the four games, so outside of the one ugly loss, the top groups have been solid for the Kings.
For Dallas, the Antoine Walker experiment has been problematic. While Walker has some undeniable skills that can make him valuable to a number of teams, during the regular season, Dallas outscored opponents at a significantly better rate when Walker was resting. The series with Sacramento has also displayed similar results: The Mavs are -18 in 100 minutes with Walker on the court, in 90 minutes when he's on the bench. Not surprisingly then, the big news on the five-man unit front is that replacing Walker has been the smart move so far:
Dallas Mavericks
Unit Minutes W L W%
Nash-Daniels-Finley-Nowitzki-Walker 54.2 -11 1 3 25%
Nash-Daniels-Finley-Najera-Nowitzki 18.5 4 0 100%
Nash-Daniels-Finley-Jamison-Nowitzki 9.3 4 0 100%
The numbers above do not account for who was on the floor for the Kings or the game state at the time, but swapping out Walker for either Najera or Jamison has shown dramatic effects. With their backs to the wall in game five, will we see less of Antoine?
Houston vs. Los Angeles Lakers
This matchup has produced some of the more dramatic games thus far, and where the Lakers go, drama has followed all season long. A lot of anticipation for the series has centered on seeing Shaquille O'Neal and Yao Ming square off, as well as seeing how the four Hall of Famers get down to business now that it's playoff time.
Los Angeles Lakers
Unit Minutes W L W%
Payton-Bryant-Fox-Malone-O'Neal 50.8 1 2 33%
Fisher-Rush-Bryant-Malone-O'Neal 25.8 3 1 75%
Payton-Bryant-George-Malone-O'Neal 24.6 -6 0 3 0%
Payton-Fisher-Bryant-Malone-O'Neal 15.6 2 0 100%
Payton has seen limited action in the fourth quarter of some games, and in truth two of the mainstay groups he is a part of have been erratic for Los Angeles. The Lakers have done better with a Fisher-Rush-Bryant backcourt, or a Payton-Fisher-Bryant one alongside their two premier big men.
For the Rockets, even should they fall in Game 5, this has been a series where they have displayed notable fortitude and with a few breaks or a clutch shot could even be ahead at this juncture. Despite this the rumors are flying that Steve Francis may well be in another city by next season's tipoff.
Houston Rockets
Unit Minutes W L W%
Francis-Mobley-Jackson-Cato-Ming 75.9 -7 2 1 67%
Francis-Mobley-Jackson-Taylor-Ming 40.7 3 1 75%
Francis-Mobley-Jackson-Taylor-Cato 22.4 2 2 50%
Jackson-Francis-Jackson-Taylor-Ming 6.4 -12 0 2 0%
Sorting the five-man units by minutes played, at a glance we can see the top three groups for Houston have held their own with the Lakers. The problem has been when they have had to rest Francis or Mobley, at which point the results have gone downhill fast, as evidenced by the numbers for the fourth-most used unit. Indeed with Mobley on court, the Rockets are in 171 minutes, but -29 in the 25 minutes he's been on the bench. Unfortunately there's no easy solution to this type of problem -- expecting your starting backcourt to go the full 48 seems unreasonable! Adding depth at the guard position may be a better idea for the offseason than trading "The Franchise."
Miami vs. New Orleans
With the series tied heading back to Miami, this has the makings of a Game 7 showdown. The Heat have relied heavily on one unit, but have seen great results with a less-used lineup when Udonis Haslem allows Lamar Odom to get some minutes of rest:
Miami Heat
Unit Minutes W L W%
Wade-Jones-Butler-Odom-Grant 70.2 3 1 75%
Wade-Jones-Butler-Haslem-Grant 7.9 3 0 100%
The key players for Miami have been Eddie Jones ( in 152 minutes playing, -20 in 40 minutes on the bench) and Caron Butler ( in 161 minutes on court, -16 in 29 minutes off court).
For the Hornets, they will go as far as Baron Davis can take them ( in 154 minutes on court, -21 in 36 minutes off court), and have found some proficient if not dominating five-man groups.
New Orleans Hornets
Unit Minutes W L W%
Davis-Wesley-Lynch-Brown-Magloire 34.9 -4 2 2 50%
Davis-Wesley-Augmon-Brown-Magloire 31.3 2 2 50%
Armstrong-Davis-Augmon-Brown-West 16.5 2 1 67%
Armstrong-Davis-Augmon-West-Magloire 14.4 3 1 75%
One of the great things about a lengthy series is that we get to witness some "cat and mouse" action by both coaching staffs, as they seek to counter any successful moves by the opposing team. With such limited total minutes for five-man groups, any perceived advantage may be as much due to a lucky stretch as an extended true edge. Then you factor in the skill of coaches in breaking down "what went wrong" and they may well have answers ready for the next time the two teams step on the court.
Still, with everything at stake in the postseason, among the ultimate NBA insiders there's more than a little attention being placed right now on which players are playing well … together.
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Peep Show
NBA Insider
Wednesday, April 28
Updated: April 28
8:48 AM ET
Milwaukee Bucks: Michael Redd regrets only that he has but six fouls to give his team next game. "I want everyone's mind to be focused on Thursday," Redd said in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "Whether you have to get six fouls in the first quarter or whatever - just going hard - it's not about being soft anymore. It's do or die. None of us are ready to go home." And that includes the coaches. "You can't look at it that you have to win three games," assistant coach Bob Ociepka said. "You look at it that you have to win the next one. We've proven that we can win in Detroit. We know what adjustments we have to make. We make those, we bring it back home. We get our people in our building, our fans, you get that and you take it to a Game 7 and anything can happen in a Game 7."
Houston Rockets: It sounds like the Rockets are ready to bite the Mailman. "I said to our team, Karl Malone, he's not dirty," head coach Jeff Van Gundy said in the Houston Chronicle. "He competes hard. Has he maybe gone over the line in some instances in his career? I don't know. I'm not one to say he hasn't. What he's doing though, is competing hard. And that's what we need to do. Instead of touch-fouling him on his layups in transition, not foul to hurt, but foul to prevent the layup. That's probably the biggest thing we have to learn, is how far are you willing to go to win? I think if you're going to win in the playoffs, you have to be willing to go pretty far." Van Gundy just wishes he had a Mailman of his own. "That's the playoffs. Or that should be basketball," Van Gundy said. "He laid Yao out on that cut. Guess what? That's what big guys are supposed to do. Lay wood on people. Let them know you don't come into the lane unimpeded, and we should be doing the same. We have to develop that mentality. I'm not trying to say that he's never done anything that's over the line, I'm just saying from what I've seen in this series, it would serve us better not to worry about this perception that he may be dirty. Just do our thing."
San Antonio Spurs: Obviously, they didn't give Gregg Popovich a vote for Defensive Player of the Year. "Bruce [Bowen] guards the best player on the other team almost every single night," Popovich said in the Indianapolis Star. "Artest doesn't do that. Artest just looks the part. He looks like a big, tough guy. He whacks and gets knocked out of the game once in awhile. But that's not the Defensive Player of the Year." He then attacked the Pacer coaching staff for campaigning for Artest and producing their own numbers to back it up. "What a bunch of baloney," Popovich said on a radio show. "Totally unsubstantiated stats put out by Indiana. The media bought it and then the NBA printed those stats. I am amazed by that . . . but the coaches know."
Denver Nuggets: Carmelo Anthony has done it all this year. And now you can include playing his worst game of the season on that list. "I wasn't frustrated at all, I was just missing," Anthony said in the Rocky Mountain News after going 1-for-13 Tuesday night. "I tried to do some other stuff like play defense and rebound, but it didn't seem like it helped." And that wasn't all. He even hurt himself during the game and will undergo an MRI today on his knee. "As far as I know I'm playing, unless the (magnetic resonance imaging test) is messed up," Anthony said.
New York Knicks: Isiah Thomas isn't looking for a handout. "We're not good enough," Thomas said in the New York Daily News. "And no one is coming to save us. This isn't a charity league. It's a very competitive league. When you're down, people want to kick you." Thomas, however, says they won't make many moves. "I think you're looking at patchwork for the next three to four years," he said. "With Houston's contract and Shandon, before you even made the trade for Steph, you basically were at the number that we're at even before you made the trade. Our decision was for the next three years while you still have Allan at the dollar figure that he's at, let's try to put some players around him and try to take a run at it for the next three years and see what happens."
Dallas Mavericks: Like it or not, Michael Finley, Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash are stuck together. "Considering all have contracts going forward except for the possible exception of Steve, I would say it's 99 percent likely their streak continues," owner Mark Cuban said in the Dallas Morning News. But the players don't sound so convinced. "You can't worry about things you can't control," said Finley. "We won 60 games last year, and we still made changes."
Los Angeles Lakers: Shaquille O'Neal is hurting again. He's just not saying how much his knee hurts. "Phil [Jackson] was gracious enough to give me the last two days off," Shaq said in the Los Angeles Times. "We know it's going to be a wrestling match in there [tonight]. Just go home and get some more rest and I'll be ready."
