Portland Misses and Misses and Wins Again

[ziggy]

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/09/10/portland-misses-and-misses-and%E2%80%A6-wins-again/


Portland Misses and Misses and Wins Again
September 10, 2009 ? 16 Comments

Yes, much of this post is a re-run.

But I am posting this story again because last week, 53 ESPN.com experts (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=OffseasonPredictions09-WestChamps) were asked to pick the top team in the Western Conference.  The overwhelming favorite " with 41 votes " was the LA Lakers.  Ten votes went to San Antonio Spurs while the Mavericks and Nuggets each received one vote.  And the Portland Trail Blazers " the team that finished second in the Western Conference last year in efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) " did not receive a single vote.  Yes, even Henry Abbott " a long-time fan of the Trail Blazers " did not give his beloved Blazers a vote.

Matthew Yglesias " who is better known for his political insights than for his sports coverage " argued a few days ago that Portland is the "only team that could beat the Lakers in the Western Conference."  Although I am not sure that's true, I do concur as I noted a month ago (http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/08/06/portland-misses-and-misses-and%E2%80%A6-wins/)  with the sentiment that the Blazers can challenge the Lakers.

This argument begins with what happened last year.  The Blazers finished last year with a 5.9 efficiency differential.  This was the second best mark in the Western Conference, eclipsing what was seen from the Spurs (4.1 differential) and the Nuggets (3.5 differential).

Wins Produced allows us to connect efficiency differential to the individual players.  Table One reports the Wins Produced for each player the Blazers employed last year.

Table One: The Portland Trail Blazers in 2008-09  (http://www.wagesofwins.com/Portland0809.html)

Topping the list is Brandon Roy.  Last year Roy produced 15.3 wins with a 0.253 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] mark.  To put that mark in perspective, Kobe Bryant produced 15.0 wins with a 0.244 WP48 in 2008-09.  Yes, Roy is just as productive as Kobe.  So if you think Kobe is what separates the Lakers from everyone else, well?the Blazers have a shooting guard like that (at least in terms of overall production).

Unfortunately, Roy's teammates only produced 39.9 wins last year; while Kobe's teammates produced 46.1 wins.  Because Kobe's teammates were better, the Lakers won more games than the Blazers.

In the off-season  as I noted last month  the gap between these teams got much smaller. And to make this easier, let me just repeat what I said (yes, as noted, I am going into re-runs).

Portland Misses

Portland's objective this summer was to close the gap between them and the Lakers.  It appears, though, that this gap has actually gotten bigger. The Lakers were essentially able to exchange a Trevor Ariza (a former second round pick of the Knicks) for All-Star Ron Artest (yes, he did make an appearance in this game in 2004).  Meanwhile, the Blazers made every effort to sign Hedo Turkoglu, only to have Turkoglu sign with Toronto at the last moment.  Then the Blazers turned to Paul Millsap, only to see the Utah Jazz match Portland?s offer.  Finally, in an apparent act of desperation, the Blazers finally got Andre Miller to accept their money.  This sequence of events had led Ken Berger of CBS Sportline to list the Blazers as one of the NBA's losers in the 2009 off-season.

But did the Blazers really fail this summer?

To answer this question, let's start with where the Lakers and Blazers finished the 2008-09 regular season.

The Lakers in 2008-09

Here are the top 10 players ' in minutes played ' for the Lakers last season (WP48 = Wins Produced per 48 minutes):

Pau Gasol: 2,999 min., 15.6 Wins Produced, 0.250 WP48

Kobe Bryant: 2,960 min., 15.0 Wins Produced, 0.244 WP48

Derek Fisher: 2,441 min., 2.6 Wins Produced, 0.051 WP48

Lamar Odom: 2,316 min., 10.6 Wins Produced, 0.220 WP48

Trevor Ariza: 1,998 min., 8.0 Wins Produced, 0.192 WP48

Andrew Bynum: 1,446 min., 4.8 Wins Produced, 0.158 WP48

Sasha Vujacic: 1,293 min., 2.7 Wins Produced, 0.099 WP48

Jordan Farmer: 1,192 min., -0.9 Wins Produced, -0.035 WP48

Luke Walton: 1,166 min., 2.2 Wins Produced, 0.091 WP48

Vladimir Radmanovic: 771 min., 1.5 Wins Produced, 0.094 WP48

Totals for Top 10: 18,582 min., 62.2 Wins Produced, 0.161 WP48

The Lakers won 65 games.  But their efficiency differential of 7.8 (and correspondingly, the team's Wins Produced) was consistent with a team that won 61 games (wins that can essentially be connected to the ten players listed above).  So the Lakers were not quite as good as their won-loss record indicated.

The Blazers in 2008-09

LaMarcus Aldridge: 3,004 min., 6.7 Wins Produced, 0.107 WP48

Brandon Roy: 2,903 min., 15.3 Wins Produced, 0.253 WP48

Travis Outlaw: 2,246 min., 2.6 Wins Produced, 0.055 WP48

Steve Blake: 2,188 min., 5.3 Wins Produced, 0.117 WP48

Rudy Fernandez: 1,993 min., 6.9 Wins Produced, 0.167 WP48

Joel Przybilla: 1,952 min., 11.7 Wins Produced, 0.288 WP48

Nicolas Batum: 1,454 min., 3.7 Wins Produced, 0.123 WP48

Greg Oden: 1,314 min., 4.2 Wins Produced, 0.154 WP48

Sergio Rodriguez: 1,225 min., 2.2 Wins Produced, 0.087 WP48

Channing Frye: 746 min., -2.3 Wins Produced, -0.146 WP48

Totals for Top 10: 19,025 min., 56.4 Wins Produced, 0.142 WP48

Again, Portland's Wins Produced for the entire team was 55.1; so the Blazers were about six wins off the pace set by the Lakers.

Evaluating the Changes

Now let's consider the changes made to each team's top 10.

First the Lakers:

The Lakers lose

Trevor Ariza: 1,998 min., 8.0 Wins Produced, 0.192 WP48

Vladimir Radmanovic: 771 min., 1.5 Wins Produced, 0.094 WP48

Total Loss: 2,769 min., 9.5 Wins Produced, 0.162 WP48

The Lakers add to their top 10

Ron Artest: 2,452 min., 4.6 Wins Produced, 0.089 WP48

Josh Powell: 703 min., -0.6 Wins Produced, -0.040 WP48 or

Didier Ilunga-Mbenga: 181 min., -0.2 Wins Produced, -0.066 WP48

Total Gain: 3,155 min., 4.0 Wins Produced, 0.060 WP48 (with Artest and Powell)

Overall Direction: The Lakers appear to be worse.  Artest is simply not as productive as Ariza  (http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/07/07/artest-for-ariza/).  And whether Powell or Mbenga takes the 10th slot, the team is really not helped.

Now the Blazers:

The Blazers lose:

Sergio Rodriguez: 1,225 min., 2.2 Wins Produced, 0.087 WP48

Channing Frye: 746 min., -2.3 Wins Produced, -0.146 WP48

Total Loss: 1,971 min., -0.1 Wins Produced, -0.001 WP48

The Blazers gain:

Andre Miller: 2,976 min., 11.1 Wins Produced, 0.178 WP48

Jerryd Bayless: 655 min., -1.4 Wins Produced, -0.104 WP48

Total Gain: 3,631 min., 9.6 Wins Produced, 0.127 WP48

Overall Direction: The Blazers appear to be better. Miller is clearly an upgrade over Sergio Rodriguez at point guard.  It also helps that Channing Frye went away.

Once again when we compare each team's efficiency differential (and Wins Produced), it appeared the Lakers were only about six wins better than the Blazers in 2008-09.  With the moves each team has made, this gap appears to be closed.  In sum, if all we look at is what the veteran players on each team did last year, the Blazers are at least as good as the Lakers.

On the other hand

Of course, all good economists have "the other hand" to look at.

It?s important to note that the Lakers did not have services of Andrew Bynum for much of the 2008-09 season.  If Bynum is healthy, he could substantially improve the Lakers.

On the other hand? the same story could be told about Greg Oden.

Then again, on the other hand Phil Jackson does appear to be one of those coaches who can change a player's productivity. Maybe he can make Ron Artest better.

Then again, on the other hand. Artest will be 30 years of age in November, so his production is probably going to slip.

Then again, on the other hand Andre Miller is already 33 years of age. So how many more years can he be productive?

Then again, on the other hand we are completely ignoring the changes made by the Mavericks, Spurs, and Nuggets. These teams, like the Blazers, might also be better.

Wow, thats quite a few hands.  Let me try and summarize.  Contrary to what Berger argued, I think the moves the Lakers and Blazers have made have actually closed the gap between the two teams.  The Lakers were clearly the best team in the West last year.  It doesn't appear to me, though, that the Lakers are clearly the best in 2009-10.  So although I can't guarantee the Blazers will make it to the NBA Finals in 2010 (remember what we found on the other hands), I think Portland fans shouldn't think their team ranked among the losers this summer.  As for fans of the Lakers' well, Phil Jackson really is a good coach so maybe it will still work out.

- DJ

[westkoast]

(Going to argue from a Lakers point of view obviously)

The rating of the Lakers team, in terms of their 7.8 point diff and games won (said it is more like a 61 wins team), doesn't seem to factor in the injuries to the Lakers players through out the season.  I know they do not do it for the Blazers either but that is why the Lakers point diff dipped.  It was at double digits up until they started to have players go down (notably Bynum) 

Also, no stat for playoff experience.  The Lakers players have been to the finals 2 years in a row.  The Spurs core have been to the finals many times and are the second best team in the playoffs in our conference the entire decade.  Mavs?  They've been to the finals.    The Blazers have yet to leave the first round.  I agree they are very talented.  I also agree they match up well with the Lakers and other squads.  That was proven when they played up in the Rose Garden last year.  However playoff experience is not 'overrated' and I disagree with anyone who says so.  There is a different swagger and confidence to a team who has been in high pressure situations.  For example, Derek Fisher hitting that shot against Orlando.  He had been in intense playoff situations before.  Nelson had not.  One was calm and collected.  One was playing nervous.  I think the same applies to a team as a whole.  When the going gets tough one team is going to be tighter than the other.  That is my counter argument to the crunch of numbers to argue that the Blazers can knock the Lakers off.  Also why I think a lot of people picked the Lakers, Spurs, Mavs over the Blazers.  I don't think it is a knock but the team has yet to go deep in the playoffs.  They are young so it's only a matter of time but this up coming season, I don't see them knocking off the Lakers or Spurs.

[rickortreat]

Portland hasn't proven anything to the league yet. Nice players sure, but winners against elite teams? Not yet.  Ever since Oden arrived there has been hype about Portland every season, but no performance.

I haven't watched them play a lot, but when I did see them, I wasn't impressed. In particular I thought their point guard was a serious liability.  With Andre Miller, they have improved dramatically, but on defense they will still have real problems in their back-court.

I guess at the beginning of the year anyone can say anything about their team. Sportswriters all make predictions and most of them are wrong, but they still have their job next season.  Portland is going to have to perform better when it counts to get me to pay attention.

Right now, I don't even think they are a foil for the Lakers trying to return to the finals. As I see it, the Lakers are far ahead of every other team out West, whereas in the East there are three finals worthy teams, just like last season. Maybe San Antonio will be better this season, and Denver may have an outside shot, but something will have to change radically for the Lakers to be kept out of that number one seed.