NBA 1st, 2nd, and 3rd team from a statistical composite view

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http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2433

The 2008-09 All-APBRmetrics Team

Posted by Neil Paine on May 15, 2009

When the league announced the All-NBA Teams this week, there were relatively few surprises. For those who haven?t seen them already, the selections looked like this:

2008-09
FIRST TEAM    
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas
LeBron James, Cleveland
Dwight Howard, Orlando
Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers
Dwyane Wade, Miami    

SECOND TEAM    
Paul Pierce, Boston
Tim Duncan, San Antonio
Yao Ming, Houston
Brandon Roy, Portland
Chris Paul, New Orleans    

THIRD TEAM 
Carmelo Anthony, Denver
Pau Gasol, LA Lakers
Shaquille O?Neal, Phoenix
Chauncey Billups, Denver
Tony Parker, San Antonio

I thought it would be interesting, though, to see how the analytic community would have picked the teams, assuming we filled out our ballots according to our respective metrics. The rules for voting would be the same as those for the real panel of sportswriters that vote on the teams: five points for a first team vote, three points for a second team vote, and one point for a third team vote. Positions are defined by our database here at Basketball-Reference (unless we absolutely need to consider a F at C); each ?team? will consist of two forwards, one center, and two guards. And each metric?s ranking is according to its own preference ? for instance, PER and adjusted +/- prefer to rank players on a per-minute/possession basis, while Win Shares rank on the basis of cumulative value over the 0-win margin. Here are the sources I?m using:

Win Shares (Justin Kubatko)
PER (John Hollinger)
Adjusted +/- (Dan Rosenbaum/Aaron Barzilai)
Statistical +/- (Dan Rosenbaum/Neil Paine)
eWins (Mike Goodman)
Wins Produced (David Berri)
Composite Score (Jon Nichols)
Tendex (Dave Heeren/Doug Steele)
WARP (Kevin Pelton)
Roland Rating (Roland Beech)

(If for some reason you have a rating system and I forgot you, drop me a line and I will update the voting to reflect your results.)

Here are the results of the ?voting?:
(UPDATE: Added WARP & Roland Ratings ? thanks, Kevin & Roland!)
Player    Pos    WS    PER    APM    SPM    eW    WP    CS    Tndx    WARP    RR    Total
LeBron James    F    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    50
Chris Paul            G    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    50
Dwyane Wade    G    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    50
Dwight Howard    C    5    5       5    5    5    5    5    5    5    45
Yao Ming            C    3    3    5       3    1    3    3    3    3    27
Kobe Bryant    G    3    3    1    3    3    1    3    3    3    3    26
Tim Duncan    F/C    1    5       5    3    1       1    5    1    22
Dirk Nowitzki    F    3    3          5          5    1    3    20
Pau Gasol            F/C    5    1    3       1    3    1    3    3       20
Brandon Roy    G    3    3       1    3    1    1    1    3    3    19
Chris Bosh            F/C    1    1       1    3          3    3       12
Kevin Garnett    F                      5          5    10
Jason Kidd            G          3    3       3          1       10
Lamar Odom    F          3             3          3    9
Gerald Wallace    F             3       1    3       1       8
Rashard Lewis    F          5    1          1             7
Troy Murphy    F             1       5                6
Ray Allen            G    1                   3          1    5
Rajon Rondo    G             1       3          1       5
Shaquille O?Neal    C       1       3                1       5
David Lee            F/C    1                3       1          5
Andre Iguodala    G          3                      1    4
Danny Granger    F             3                   1    4
Al Jefferson    F       3                   1          4
Paul Pierce            F    3             1                   4
Deron Williams    G                         3          3
Marcus Camby    F/C                   3                3
Tony Parker    G       1    1       1                   3
Nene    Hilario        F          3                         3
Andrei Kirilenko    F                      1          1    2
Steve Nash    G                         1          1
Jameer Nelson    G                      1             1
Antawn Jamison    F                1                   1
Chauncey Billups    G    1                               1
Manu Ginobili    G       1                            1
Rasheed Wallace    F          1                         1
Ime Udoka            F          1                         1
Chris Andersen    F/C          1                         1
David West    F                1                   1

First Team:
G Chris Paul, Hornets  (replaces Kobe Bryant)
G Dwyane Wade, Heat
F LeBron James, Cavs
F Tim Duncan, Spurs  (replaces Dirk Nowitski)
C Dwight Howard, Magic


Second Team:
G Kobe Bryant, Lakers
G Brandon Roy, Blazers
F Dirk Nowitzki, Mavs
F Pau Gasol, Lakers  (replaces Paul Pierce)
C Yao Ming, Rockets


Third Team:
G Jason Kidd, Mavs  (Replaces Tony Parker)
G (tie) Ray Allen & Rajon Rondo, Celtics  (replaces Chauncey Billups)
F Lamar Odom, Lakers  (replaces Carmelo Anthony)
F Kevin Garnett, Celtics  (replaces Pau Gasol)
C Chris Bosh, Raptors  (replaces Shaquille O'Neal)


There were not a lot of differences from the ?official? team at the top (the most obvious one being Chris Paul?s unfortunate snub to 2nd-Team status because humanity would never hear the end of it if Bryant wasn?t a 1st-Teamer, & they couldn?t justify sending Wade down either). But as you move down, the teams become more and more divergent ? the metrics don?t consider Pierce, Parker, Shaq, or Billups to be All-NBA material, and Carmelo Anthony (sometimes regarded as one of the league?s most overrated players in APBRmetric circles) didn?t garner a single ?vote?. So it?s apparent that we?re not all on the same page here.

But at least the two groups of voters can agree that D-Wade, LeBron, and Dwight Howard are 3 of the most elite players in the league. And almost every metric I came across listed James as the game?s best/most valuable performer this season, which also matches the voters? official MVP decision. We may disagree on a lot of things, but there?s no difference of opinion on who the absolute cream of the crop has been this season: he?s the guy who wears #23 and plays his home games in Ohio.

[Reality]

I thought it would be interesting, though, to see how the analytic community would have picked the teams, assuming we filled out our ballots according to our respective metrics. 

All in all the stat boys are not that far off.
Duncan-Dirk, Dirk-Duncan at this point whatever.  Duncs is no longer unanmous #1, esp with his submission to Poppycock.

The Jason Kidd over Tony Parker, Billips or even Rondo to a lesser extent choice is a joke.  Props to Kidd for hitting his treys in the playoff battle, but otherwise Parker owned him.  No way no how that 4-1 series win can be pinned on Kidd over Parker.

Joe are you still drinking the Kidd koolaid?  I know with you i dont have to worry about Popavichs incompetence being a real issue, which it is.  I know you're not big on Parker but you had to like some of his games vs Dallas, combined with the handicap of Poppycock.

Odom over MarshMello?  Not this year and this playoffs, no way no how.  Odoms great at times but just as bad the next game.  Inconsistent.  'Mello and DenverBillups are at a whole new level this season.

[westkoast]

Looks right to me now that I think about it.  I was  under the impression that these ALL-NBA teams were made up off mostly stats (at least 2nd and 3rd teams).  Where as awards like MVP, All-Star selection, and Coach Of The Year factored in the intangibles a bit more. 

Lebron was a run away candidate for MVP this year.  No doubt about it.