Here are the assumptions I made for yesterday's look at the Western Conference (of course that was before noted game changer Lou A signed with Phoenix, hence upsetting the delicate balance of power):
Most of the worthwhile free agents have been signed or moved to Europe, the draft and summer leagues are completed and a few sizable trades are in the books. Let's assume for now that the remaining RFA's like Ben Gordon, JR Smith, etc all take the QO or otherwise remain with their former teams.
Here is how I see the Eastern Conference shaking out right now:
1. Boston Celtics - Basically I think they have one more run in them either this year or next. They were pretty fortunate with injuries and health in general last year and presuming the same thing occurs this year they should remain the class of the East. After all the second baest player on their team is the best player in basketball, how many teams can say that?
2. Detroit Pistons - Is this team coming back intact or will dumars make a big move? For now they bring back the older core with the younger guys like Stuckey and Maxiell improving. That should be good enough for the second spot.
3. Toronto Raptors - The health of JO will determine their level of success this season. Even without him they are a good team, but nothing special. Their second best big man last year was Rasho Nesterovich down the stretch, he's gone and Barngani looks like a bust. So if Bosh wants any help it will have to come from O'Neal.
4. Philadelphia 76ers - A close grouping with the next three teams, but might be the best defensive team in the second tier group and has the most balance and depth. Brand will have a huge impact and the young guys have a high ceiling and keep improving. Speights might be the X-factor down the stretch of the season.
5. Orlando Magic - Weak at PG, lack depth up front, but should be improved at SG with Lee and Pietrus. Best inside out game around with Howard the beast down low and the forwards firing away from the perimeter, but Howard needs some help down low.
6. Washington Wizards - The big three are back and Nick Young should contribute more this year. This team seems locked into treading water as good, but far from great for the next 3-4 years. Lots of scoring, but no true PG and weak in the middle.
7. Cleveland Cavaliers - Still dangerous in a playoff series for one reason named LeBron, but the team has a Frankenstein-like look too it. Lots of unusual parts that just don't fit together. Look for under-performance followed by another big, mid-season trade with all of those expiring contracts. This is a team that should be trying to get Ben Gordon or JR Smith, still not great fits but more talented than their current cast of non-LBJ players.
8. Chicago Bulls - They had the first pick in the draft and should have been better last year. If they bite again this year, look for Paxson to be sent packing. Another candidate for a major mid-season trade. This ranking might be too high, but I have already typed it and their are no real titans below them.
9. Charlotte Bobcats - Look for the usual first year improvement under Brown, but as he gets older his expiration date seems to run faster. Watch Michael Jordan make a big, stupid trade with LB goading him on.
10. Atlanta Hawks - The player are talented, but some hate the coach. Management and ownership is inept, the fans don't really care and Childress was more important than they realize. Josh Smith will be the surliest dude to ever get $57 million dollars. Woodson will be fired by January.
11. Indiana Pacers - Some nice young players will play very hard and win some games they shouldn't. They will have a lot of opportunities since there are a lot of games they should not win.
12. Milwaukee Bucks - RJ will help if he can pretend to be happy, Bogut may blossom and Ramon Sessions will rack up lots of assists. Skiles will have an aneurysm watching this team play defense.
13. Miami Heat - I don't really think they are trying to win this year or they might be higher up. They could be better than this because of Wade, but I think Riley has his sights set on another lottery pick before trying to grab a big FA like Boozer. Team is horrifically weak down low, especially on defense, and Marion won't be happy. Next year they add a PG in the lottery and grab a big man before riley re-appears behind the bench.
14. New Jersey Nets - Is it summer of 2010 yet? Nope, well remember to wake us up when it gets here. expect a lot of potential to be shown by young players, a lot of losses and a desparate effort to trade Carter.
15. New York Knicks - Chris Duhon as the next Steve Nash? Z-Bo and Curry on a running team? Trading Balkman for a bag of chips? Gallinari better be good fast. Another team that will be busy at the trade deadline or earlier.
Overall the East as a whole looks a lot stronger and more competitive than last year. The league looks more balanced this year and the Eastern Conference should have at least 7 solid play-off teams, maybe even with winning records. The East also looks a lot more fluid than the West which should make for an interesting year.
Thoughts?
