Speights- interesting breakdown

[tk76-]

At RealGm Barkly 34 linked to this interesting indepth analysis at PacersDSigest board: http://www.pacersdigest.com/apache2-default/showthread.php?p=737661
Hey Bodner- when are you going to put all of that extra filmroom time to work and start giving us similar quality player evals?  Although I did apreciate the feedback about Ajinca...

Tbird draft analysis: Marreese Speights
With 8 days to go before the draft, with this 12th edition of my draft threads I examine the talented Florida power forward Marresse Speights. Speights is a player likely to be selected somewhere between 10 and 20 on draft night, and will join his ex Florida teammates Joakim Noah and Al Horford as high quality young big men drafted in the first round.

Speights has alot to like when you examine his game, and a few flaws that need to be closely examined and discussed by all teams looking at him. I will lay out what I see as his advantages and disadvantages here, and let the rest of you discuss his merits.

Let me start with what I see as his positive attributes as a player, of which there are many.

First, Speights has the legitimate size, strength, and athleticism to play the position of power forward. He isn't too slow, too weak, too skinny, or "undersized" for his natural position of power forward. In this draft full of tweeners and guys who have mismatched skill sets and sizes, that is a comfortable feeling. You can put him on the practice floor on day one and he wont be physically overmatched or intimidated.

Secondly, he isn't NEARLY as raw as some of the other bigs mentioned in this draft. He is way more advanced in his fundamentals than kids like Randolph (who has poor shooting form), Hibbert (whom I like but is mechanical and slow sometimes) or Jordan (who is a fundamental mess). Speights looks better than all of these guys to me, with a higher floor than any of these guys and a reasonably high ceiling too.

Speights has a variety of moves, but no dominant "go to" move, which is somewhat similar to another big man we've had in Indianapolis for years, Jermaine O'Neal. Offensively, Speights shows a limited but nice array of weapons, including a nice jump hook he gets good lift and extension on. He is fluid in running the floor to score in transition, although he doesnt always sprint down the floor as hard as he could, which earned him many of the lectures he recieved from Coach Billy Donovan.

It is important I think when discussing his low post offensive game to know a little more about the coaching philosophy of the Billy Donovan/Rick Pitino school of post play. The Gators under Donovan run a lot of "duck ins", resulting in not alot of true NBA like post up chances. What I mean by that is that he is asked to screen and then "dive" to the area near the rim, instead of powering across the lane to fight for position under the low block. This philosphy doesnt give a post guy the option of really fighting for position much, instead they are taught to concede the high ground and dive underneath the defender to be in position for lob passes, drives and dishes from perimeter guys, or offensive putbacks.

You see the Florida and Louisville bigs do a lot of "pindown" screens and then try to "seal" their defender, instead of spinning in front of the defender to post up. In alot of ways all the Florida bigs will need to be reprogrammed slightly at the NBA level to not do that, but to instead open yourself up to the pass and post up strong.

Now, playing that way means you are asked to catch alot of difficult passes over a defender. Speights shows very good hands inside, and seems to catch passes even if they arent thrown directly to him. He seems to have the fluidity and flexibility to bring the ball in without getting incredibly off balance, although in general getting knocked off balance is a weakness he has when posting up inside, with a defender behind him pushing him.

Partly because of the Florida style of post play, but also because I think he struggles with it, one of Speights biggest offensive weaknesses is the lack of will/toughness/desire/technique to establish deep post position and to fight for it and maintain it once he has it. How big and "why" he has this weakness is going to have to be determined in his workouts, because at Florida he wasn't asked to do that, in fact he was asked to do the opposite. My guess is as an analyst that this will in fact be a weakness for him through out his career, as he doesnt to me strike me as a player who likes super physical play. I do freely admit I could be wrong about this, but I'm just watching film and trying to read between the lines. I guarantee teams who work him out are trying to determine this key question themselves. I don't think it will be a matter of strength or ability, but instead maybe technique and toughness and style.

From the outside, Speights shows nice outside form, except his results don't always match how good he looks shooting it. In this regard he reminds me a little of Dunleavy, who looks like a better shooter than he really actually is. But all in all, Speights looks like someone who will be able to make the turnaround jumper, the fadeaway, the pick and pop midrange jumper, the elbow area jumper, and the 15 foot baseline shot. He has a nice soft touch in the paint, and a nice finesse type of game in traffic. He does shy away from contact sometimes (which annoys me) but when he is fouled I think he will be a quality foul shooter. Because of his nature and the way basketball is evolving, along with his great textbook form, I would not be surprised if he ends up developing 3 point range eventually.

What strikes me about Speights, and this is more of a key than many of you think, is that he isn't clumsy or awkward in how his body moves. He seems "comfortable" in his own body, if that makes any sense. He has no dribble drive game right now to speak of, but it isn't impossible to me that he could develop one. I can see him facing up and driving guys who are slower than him, then spinning into a turnaround jump shot, or blowing by slow guys on the baseline for a flush. He has that potential, but hasnt shown the capacity to do it yet in his development.

His fluidity and body control mean he has the ability to really be a great rebounder when motivated. The upside of all the time the Gators spend letting someone fron their bigs is that this enables kids like Speights to be in prime rebounding position, and he took advantage of that at Gainesville. He isn't great or partucularly interested in blocking out that much or that physically, but as you know, that isn't all that imprtant to me when analyzing rebounders. He has great hands and when of a mind to, he really goes after the ball well. He will put up big numbers as an NBA power forward rebounder, but I don't like the fact that he doesnt always attack the boards as hard as he should, his effort is somewhat inconsistent. What lets him put up better numbers than many is the fact that he does pull in what he gets his hands on, he doesnt tip alot of balls like so many guys do, he pulls them in strongly, most of the time with two hands.

One thing about him that annoyed me quite a bit is that he held the ball too long after rebounding it, and he didnt seem to have the strong 2 handed overhead outlet pass in his game, the one I enjoy watching Kevin Love make so much. I don't know if it is coaching, instinct, lack of coaching, or what, but at a skill he should excel at, Speights didnt really utilize. It almost struck me as he wanted to pose just a bit and take a breath first.......maybe it was my imagination, or Florida's lack of guard play this year, I don't know. Lots of NBA guys can't make the outlet pass well, so it isnt a critical thing, its just something I wish Speights had in his game that he hasnt shown me so far.

Defensively, he should be better than he really is. When guarding someone, he often played behind his man and allowed his man to post up and recieve the ball. It didnt matter in college, because at that level few could score over him anyway. But in the NBA he will be a sieve unless he learns to play defense BEFORE his man recieves it, not after.

When he contested jump shots, he was really effective at it. One skill he does seem to have on film is the ability to contest/block shots with either hand, which is a hidden skill not many have. He is long, has good instincts in this regard, and can really bother a shooter when he wants to. Like many things about him, his motor ran only intermittently on this, as sometimes he'd just let his man shoot uncontested, particularly if the game wasnt close or if he had played in a longer stretch.

As a help defender, he is all steak and no sizzle. Occasionally, he will come from nowhere and block or alter a shot, but just as often he will either be out pf position and end up being late to help, or won't bother to help at all. He should be better on this end of the floor than he is, and he will have to be coached up in this area.

The way his minutes were distributed at Florida is interesting. While Donovan loves to sub like crazy anyway, he seemed to take great care to substitute Speights in and out of the game more than he did his other core players, choosing to play him in shorter spurts than most. You'd have to say this worked mostly, as Speights averaged a solid 15 and 8 in a very tough conference playing just over half the game. But you have to ask yourself if Speights was that good, why didnt he play more? It wasn't like Florida was particularly good, in fact they missed the tournament this year. What gives?

I suspect the answer was what Coach Knight called "the fundamental skill of concentration."

Speights looked to me on film and seems to be a player who struggled to focus and concentrate on the task at hand, and let his mind wander too often when he was on the floor. Much like all of us do at our jobs sometimes, or when we are driving a long distance and put the car in "cruise control", that is the way Mareese Speights occasionally played in college.

The inability to practice/play well for long stretches. The inconsistent motor. The being used in short spurts. The streaky play of his team in general. The simple mistakes that a player of Speights caliber shouldnt make. The inability to follow game plans well and read situations. All of these things are yellow flags about Speights at his current state of maturity, and raise questions about whether his mental approach to the game and being a professional is going to cut it in the men's league that is the NBA.

On the other hand, those same attributes can be described as youth, immaturity, and a lack of competition or challenge, like a really brilliant student bored in a public school classroom. Maybe he just NEEDS the challenge and drive that an upgrade in competition and prestige can give him. Who knows?

My other main question about Speights would be, as a player who looks to be good enough to be a teams primary post scorer eventually, is this: "What type of post player and other players do you need to pair around him to make him as an individual and your team as successful as can be?"

Much like I think it is difficult in building a roster around players like Jermaine O'Neal and Elton Brand and Al Jefferson and Rasheed Wallace (the players he reminds me of the most currently if he pans out), I too think if you select Speights, you have to have a long term plan on how you want to fill out the rest of your front court. It is easier to build a team around the center position, but Speights isnt that...he is a primary scoring "4 man". Those guys are hard to plan around.

Basically, what I am saying is that Speights will require another big guy along side him, preferable bigger than he is, so he wont have to defend the opponents best player or biggest player. This isnt a criticism, it is just a fact. Speights isnt a physical enough of a force to be your biggest, baddest player, he will need help along side him.

In spite of the fact that I think Speights has concentration issues, motivation issues, awareness issues, toughness ussues, and a few annoying flaws, I would have absolutely no problem if the Pacers chose to draft him either at #11 or in a later pick acquired somehow. I think Speights projects to be an 18-19 pt per game scorer, and an 8-9 rebound type of guy in the league, while eventually giving you an average defender as a "4" man. He won't lead your team to a championship, but he looks like he is clearly an upper echelon, top 10-15 power forward in this league eventually.

I have already mentioned some players he reminds me of in the current day, but I have another one from the past to throw out. Let's call Marreese Speights' best comparible the following ex Celtic:

Cedric "Cornbread" Maxwell.



As always, the above is just my opinion.

Tbird

[TheGuiltyParty]

From everything I'm reading about Speights, it sounds like the only thing separating him from being a Top 5 pick in the draft is this perceived lack of concentration/conditioning. Everyone seems to be saying that if this kid can stay focused that he could develop into a 20/10 guy and with the #16 pick in the draft... well, that's pretty good.

From what Stefanski has said... it sounds like he is comfortable with Speights' motor and that Speights received rave reviews from the trainer he was with for 6 weeks. Going after an older PF like Brand or Wallace makes a lot more sense now that we have potentially drafted a guy who can take over in 4 or so years when they retire.

If Wallace wasn't going to cost the bank... I would go after him after the FA targets. That said, I imagine Joe Dumars will want something significant. As Jack once said to Janet and Chrissy.... maybe a three-way would work.

[tk76-]

I don'd mid the 1-2 year rental.  It could give as a shot to go farther in the playoffs while e still have Miller, and then maybe we can address a different need if Speights grows into an imact starter at PF.  By then we might be looking to move Sam for a younger/better center.  That's part of why I was hoping to get Jordan in the 2nd round- we supposedly had a deal to get the next pick had he slipped past the Clippers.

I was just listening to Ed on 610- says Speights is " 6'10" in bare feet.  Thats the first I've heard about his real measurements, and puts him as a legit PF/C if he has good reach and continues to bulk up.  Most NBA centers are 6'9 - 6'11 bare feet (Dwight Howard is 6'9", Sheed 6'9")

On the flip side- you know who else was 6'10in bare feet... Sharone Wright.  That is a name that should be left un-uttered.

[TheGuiltyParty]

On the flip side- you know who else was 6'10in bare feet... Sharone Wright.  That is a name that should be left un-uttered.

What's the matter with you??? Huh? Seriously, man... that was totally uncalled for!

[Derek Bodner]

Here's my uber quick break down of speights.  In all, I probably watched about 1/2 of his minutes played last year.  I'll write a more detailed one later.

Weaknesses:
- Was completely out of shape to start the season.  Not overly fat, but he got winded quick.  He was a classic case of the law of diminishing returns, the longer you played him, the more ineffective he got.
- His focus seemed to wane at times, particularly defensively, and at times on the glass.  This IMO was a bigger issue than his conditioning.
- His man-man defense was less than it should have been.  The biggest reason for this is he did a bad job of denying his man position before he received the ball, which is the most important thing when defending the post, IMO.  Once his man received the ball he gave good effort, but at this point he was already at a disadvantage.
- He was a very bad team defender.  He overcame some of this because at the college level he was a solid shot blocker, but he was out of position quite often.
- When setting up for entry passes in the post, he doesn't do a great job sealing his man down low and establishing deep position.
- His face-up skills are limited to a jump shot.  He has very little ballhandling and ability to put the ball on the floor.
- He didn't do much out of the paint.  The majority of his offense came finishing around the basket, either post-ups, follow-ups, or transition.  In total, 82.12% of his offense came from posts, offensive boards, shots off cuts, or shots in transition. 
- Needs to diversify his post moves.  Doesn't have a go-to move.
- Got better as a passer, but not a great decision maker yet.  Not a very good outlet passer either, strangely.

Reasons I think those are correctable:
- He got into better shape as the season went on, becoming more effective later on in games.  By the time draft workouts came along, he was in great shape.  This very well may have been a kid who was never challenged to get in game shape before, and may never rear its ugly head again.
- His focus I think is at least partly attributable to lack of experience/age/maturity, that I think can be corrected.  I pretty much look at him as a red shirt freshman.  For someone as skilled as he is, he's very unexperienced.
- His defensive problems I'm not ready to damn him with at his age and his experience.  He has the physical tools.  He also, by all accounts, is a good teammate, coach-able, and works off the court.  As he gains experience, I do think his defensive problems can be corrected by proper technique.
- He has the size to establish deep post position, I think with coaching he can do a better job of it.  Florida doesn't really post up their big men all too often.  Their big men get the majority of their touches off of cuts and pick and rolls.  This may simply be a case of him not doing it enough to become proficient at it.
- Again, ballhandling, face-up skills, experience.  He has the quickness to get by guys.
- He might not have shot much out of the paint, but he has nice, consistent form on his jumper, and he gets good results.  He shot 46% on spot-up jumpshots last year.
- His footwork in the post is solid, so I see no reason he can't diversify his post game with more (word of the day) experience.

The good:
- Physical characteristics.  Tall, long, and big.  There aren't questions about either height or weight, like with Arthur or even Hickson.
- He's athletic.  Can get up and down the floor, has good foot speed and elevation.
- Good footwork in the post.  Nice turnarounds with either hand, and a nice turnaround jump shot.
- Good form on his jumpshot.
- When motivated and focused, rebounds the ball very well, particularly on the offensive glass where he could be a beast.
- Runs the floor very well.  A real threat in the open court.

A lot is made about "fitting the team" and getting someone who's a good open court player.  A lot is also made about finding a post presence.  But we also desperately need a PF who can hit the 15-17' jump shot and open up the lane.  Speights has the potential to be good at all 3.  All of his problems are correctable.  If he corrects more than he doesn't, he could be a very good player.  I thought Ed put it perfectly.  This kid has a chance.  And at 16, that's really all you can ask for.

[tk76-]

I assume you know I was not serious about expecting an in depth analysis- but it is appreciated all the same.

A few questions:
-Speights was extremely productive on a per minute basis both years at Florida.  How much is this attributable to his being on a good team and his physical dominance at that level, versus skill and effort?  The SEC is good, but NBA bigs are a different breed in terms of size and athleticism.

-In addition to improvements in conditioning, how much did he seem to improve over the course of the seaon?  Does he seem to have a fast learning curve?  Are there areas where he regressed?

-Assuming the Sixers fail to acquire a big name PF, what are your expectation for his 1st and 2nd season?

I actually have pretty high hopes for Speights this year- much higher than I had for Young last season.  He fits such a gaping hole in the post.  I don't expect the offense to be funneled through him like it would for an elite post player, but he should get a ton of easy chances to score between the passing and penetration of Miller, Lou and Iguodala.  If he gets similar bunies to the ones Reggie gets he could easily get 8 ppg in 15-20 min while shooting 60%+.

[Derek Bodner]

I had already watched all the tape, so it was just collecting my thoughts.

To your questions:
- I certainly wouldn't attribute his stats on being on a great florida team.  In fact, outside of Speights and Calathes, that team was pretty mediocre.  The SEC is a fairly good conference.  He did seem to struggle against some of the better competition.  He struggled a bit against Anthony Randolph and Richard Hendrix, although they weren't matched up all the time as Speights played quite a bit of C at florida.  Many of these also came earlier in the season as well.
- Conditioning and his mid range jump shot are the two areas he showed the most improvement.  He seemed to become a better passer as the season went on as well.  The difference between his jump shot his freshman year and now is substantial.  I wouldn't say there's any real area he regressed.
- I would expect Jason Smith type minutes.  If he comes in and plays well, that could increase throughout the year.  This is also somewhat dependent on Thaddeus Young.  If Mo goes into the season and still isn't comfortable with Thad's perimeter skills and jump shot, that could obviously cut into Speights minutes if Thad's playing the 4.

[The Poster]

"Cornbread" Maxwell is an very interesting comparison to Speights. "Cornbread" was 6'8" and about 215-220 lbs, shorter and far less weight. "Cornbread" loved to rebound and play D. So I don't see the comparison on the physical levels or the D levels. But if Speights can play on the "Cornbread" level of intensity, determination, rebounding and timely scoring we will have an absolutely invaluable asset on our hands. I think "Cornbread' also has the highest FG% in Celtic history. The Celts have also retired his number. I watched him in person at the old Boston "garrrddennn" You could always rely on him to make the timely bucket,rebound, D stop.

My question is the scouting report on Speights at least by this scout say that some of Cornbreads strengths are Speights weaknesses, so I dont know if he expects to see improvement in those areas or something else, because at first glance they don't seem to to be the same player. Maxwell was a player the other team hated but wished played for them. IF? we can hope it plays out the Maxwell way in my opinion.

[tk76-]

Speights seems like such a tough reed because it sounds like he often plays with a high motor until he burns himself out and then sort of coast.  I guess its hard to know if in the NBA he will develop the stamina and maturity to play with an Evans like passion, or if he will coast more to conserve his energy.

Maybe playing a year with Evans is not such a bad idea.

---
The 46% on jumpers sounds very promising (Compared to Sam's 35% on jumpers).  There is nothing better than a PF who can hit the jumper, and yet prefers to score inside(Duncan)- as opposed to all the bigs that would rather just stand out and shoot jumpers all day(Sheed.)  Speights sounds like he prefders to score in the paint, but is developing the ability to score from outside.  It also bodes well for him improving his 40% FT shooting.
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Speight's predraft interviews remind me of the golden days with Moses.  I don't jump to conclusions and judge a player's intelligence (esp on the court) by their speaking ability- and both guys might actually have a speech impediment.  I wonder if that hurt Speights stock, because unless you look more in to it, I'm sure with his speech and shyness Speights makes a poor first impression in terms of coachability.

[tk76-]

Got this from a post by NW at RealGM.

NW wrote:Hey Sixers fans, Warriors fan here.

Thought you guys might appreciate this:

http://sports.yahoo.com/top/collegebroadcast/teams/jps

Full SEC games from last year so you can check out your pick in more than just highlights

Warriors got a couple of SEC draft picks so it was good for us, you guys should enjoy it too

Something to watch if the Summer league is not enough.
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/college/?cl=5589312','playerWindow','width=793,height=608,scrollbars=no'))

Fla vs SC.  Big game for Speights.  He looks really fast and big.  Quick feet, decent court awareness and some good passes. 

I do see what you mean about Florida's offense and not much true low post-up plays.  More of a motion offense, and Speights is scoring more by being in the right place at the right time.

BTW- do you know how to reformat this link to allow me to play the clip in WMP?  I would like to be able to have more controls (FF, RW, Pause.)

[Derek Bodner]

Well, I'm not sure I would call it just being in the right place at the right time.  He has very good hands, and nice touch.  Without those attributes, those plays don't happen.

Can't help with WMP.  I'm a linux user.

[jemagee]

I like Hoopsanalyst.com - terribly laid out site - but interesting insight - big speights fan

Philadelphia 76ers: The Sixers needed some inside help and ended up with the best big guy after Beasley and Love. Speights does have some issues, but he?s also a player who was productive on a level that has historically been reached only by all-stars. The biggest problem with Speights is he wasn?t in shape this year, got winded easily and didn?t play big minutes because of that. With prospects there are two types of flaws: fatal and correctable. An example of a fatal flaw would be a PF who is measured at 6?3?. Another one is a PF who just can?t rebound well enough. Those are things that will never be fixed. Being out of shape can be solved with a personal trainer, treadmill, jump rope, medicine ball and any number of fancy new workout gadgets, along with a little dedication on the part of Speights. I suspect if Mo Cheeks keeps reminding Marreese that he stands to earn $100 million+ over the next 10 years if he just does what the trainer says, the dedication will be found. Should Speights reach his potential any team that passed on him for a Lopez brother is going to feel very silly in about 5 years.